Biometrical Journal最新文献

{"title":"Using Machine Learning to Improve Control for Confounding in the Dynamic Weighted Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of Optimal Adaptive Treatment Strategies","authors":"Kossi Clément Trenou,&nbsp;Miceline Mésidor,&nbsp;Aida Eslami,&nbsp;Hermann Nabi,&nbsp;Caroline Diorio,&nbsp;Denis Talbot","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70068","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Estimating optimal adaptive treatment strategies (ATSs) can be done in several ways, including dynamic weighted ordinary least squares (dWOLS). This approach is doubly robust as it requires modeling both the treatment and the response, but only one of those models needs to be correctly specified to obtain a consistent estimator. For estimating an average treatment effect, doubly robust methods have been shown to combine better with machine learning methods than alternatives. However, the use of machine learning within dWOLS has not yet been investigated. Using simulation studies, we evaluate and compare the performance of the dWOLS estimator when the treatment probability is estimated either using machine learning algorithms or a logistic regression model. We further investigate the use of an adaptive <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mi>m</mi>\u0000 <annotation>$m$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>-out-of-<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mi>n</mi>\u0000 <annotation>$n$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> bootstrap method for producing inferences. SuperLearner performed at least as well as logistic regression in terms of bias and variance in scenarios with simple data-generating models and often had improved performance in more complex scenarios. Moreover, the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mi>m</mi>\u0000 <annotation>$m$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>-out-of-<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mi>n</mi>\u0000 <annotation>$n$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> bootstrap produced confidence intervals with nominal coverage probabilities for parameters that were estimated with low bias. We also apply our proposed approach to the data from a breast cancer registry in Québec, Canada, to estimate an optimal ATS to personalize the use of hormonal therapy in breast cancer patients. Our method is implemented in the <span>R software</span> and available on GitHub https://github.com/kosstre20/MachineLearningToControlConfoundingPersonalizedMedicine.git. We recommend routine use of machine learning to model treatment within dWOLS, at least as a sensitivity analysis for the point estimates.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70068","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144716817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking Probability of Success as Bayes Utility","authors":"Fulvio De Santis,&nbsp;Stefania Gubbiotti,&nbsp;Francesco Mariani","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70067","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the hybrid frequentist-Bayesian approach, the probability of success (PoS) of a trial is the expected value of the traditional power function of a test with respect to a design prior assigned to the parameter under scrutiny. However, this definition is not univocal and some of the proposals do not lack of potential drawbacks. These problems are related to the fact that such definitions are all based on the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis rather than on the probability of choosing the correct hypothesis, be it the null or the alternative. In this article, we propose a unifying, decision-theoretic approach that yields a new definition of PoS as the expected utility of the trial (u-PoS), that is, as the expected probability of making the correct choice between the two hypotheses. This proposal shows a conceptual advantage over previous definitions of PoS; moreover, it produces smaller optimal sample sizes whenever the design prior assigns positive probability to the null hypothesis.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70067","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early and Late Buzzards: Comparing Different Approaches for Quantile-Based Multiple Testing in Heavy-Tailed Wildlife Research Data","authors":"Marléne Baumeister,&nbsp;Merle Munko,&nbsp;Kai-Philipp Gladow,&nbsp;Marc Ditzhaus,&nbsp;Nayden Chakarov,&nbsp;Markus Pauly","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70065","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In medical, ecological, and psychological research, there is a need for methods to handle multiple testing, for example, to consider group comparisons with more than two groups. Typical approaches that deal with multiple testing are mean- or variance-based which can be less effective in the context of heavy-tailed and skewed data. Here, the median is the preferred measure of location and the interquartile range (IQR) is an adequate alternative to the variance. Therefore, it may be fruitful to formulate research questions of interest in terms of the median or the IQR. For this reason, we compare different inference approaches for two-sided and noninferiority hypotheses formulated in terms of medians or IQRs in an extensive simulation study. We consider multiple contrast testing procedures combined with a bootstrap method as well as testing procedures with Bonferroni correction. As an example of a multiple testing problem based on heavy-tailed data, we analyze an ecological trait variation in early and late breeding in a medium-sized bird of prey.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70065","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validation of a Longitudinal Marker as a Surrogate Using Mediation Analysis and Joint Modeling: Evolution of the PSA as a Surrogate of the Disease-Free Survival","authors":"Quentin Le Coent,&nbsp;Catherine Legrand,&nbsp;James J. Dignam,&nbsp;Virginie Rondeau","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70064","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Longitudinal biomarkers constitute a broad class of potential surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. Several approaches have been proposed for surrogate validation but available methods for validating a longitudinal biomarker as a surrogate of a time-to-event endpoint such as death remain limited. In this work, we propose a method for validating a longitudinal outcome as a surrogate of a time-to-event endpoint using a combination of joint modeling and mediation analysis. The proportion of the total treatment effect on the time-to-event endpoint due to its effect on the biomarker is used as a surrogacy measure. This method is developed to integrate meta-analytic data using a joint model with random effects at both the individual and trial levels. From this model, the indirect treatment effect through the surrogate as well as the direct and total treatment effects is derived using a mediation formula. A simulation study was designed to evaluate the performance of this approach. We applied this method to a multicentric study on prostate cancer to investigate the use of prostate-specific antigen level as a surrogate for disease-free survival.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issue Information: Biometrical Journal 4'25","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70066","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70066","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144503081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generalized Boosted Models to Measure Racial Effects at Different Quantiles in Observational Studies","authors":"Lili Yue,&nbsp;Jiayue Zhang,&nbsp;Ping Yu,&nbsp;Gaorong Li","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70063","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this paper, we consider the estimation problem of treatment effect at different quantiles in observational studies with longitudinal data. The research motivation is from the NHLBI (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute) Growth and Health Study (NGHS), a longitudinal cohort study that aims to discuss the effects of race on cardiovascular risk factors. Because the true propensity score model is unknown, a nonparametric generalized boosted models (GBM) method is adopted to obtain the propensity score estimator. Combining the ideas of quantile regression and inverse probability weighting, a GBM-based quantile weighting estimation method is developed for the quantile treatment effect and applied in NGHS data to measure the racial effects at different quantiles. The results indicate that the racial effect varies with different quantile levels and may not equal to zero. Under various parameter configurations, some simulation studies are conducted to assess the effectiveness and advantages of our proposed estimation method compared with the existing approaches.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144339127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Inverse Probability of Selection Weighted Cox Model to Deal With Outcome-Dependent Sampling in Survival Analysis","authors":"Vera H. Arntzen,&nbsp;Marta Fiocco,&nbsp;Inge M. M. Lakeman,&nbsp;Maartje Nielsen,&nbsp;Mar Rodríguez-Girondo","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Motivated by the study of genetic effect modifiers of cancer, we examined weighting approaches to correct for ascertainment bias in survival analysis. Outcome-dependent sampling is common in genetic epidemiology leading to study samples with too many events in comparison to the population and an overrepresentation of young, affected subjects. A usual approach to correct for ascertainment bias in this setting is to use an inverse probability-weighted Cox model, using weights based on external available population-based age-specific incidence rates of the type of cancer under investigation. However, the current approach is not general enough leading to invalid weights in relevant practical settings if oversampling of cases is not observed in all age groups. Based on the same principle of weighting observations by their inverse probability of selection, we propose a new, more general approach, called the generalized weighted approach. We show the advantage of the new generalized weighted cohort method using simulations and two real data sets. In both applications, the goal is to assess the association between common susceptibility loci identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and cancer (colorectal and breast) using data collected through genetic testing in clinical genetics centers.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144264540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Outcomes Truncated by Death in RCTs: A Simulation Study on the Survivor Average Causal Effect","authors":"Stefanie von Felten,&nbsp;Chiara Vanetta,&nbsp;Christoph M. Rüegger,&nbsp;Sven Wellmann,&nbsp;Leonhard Held","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70061","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), but this requires making nontestable assumptions. Motivated by an ongoing RCT in very preterm infants with intraventricular hemorrhage, we performed a simulation study to compare an SACE estimator with complete case analysis (CCA) and analysis after multiple imputation of missing outcomes. We set up nine scenarios combining positive, negative, and no treatment effect on the outcome (cognitive development) and on survival at 2 years of age. Treatment effect estimates from all methods were compared in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage with regard to two true treatment effects: the treatment effect on the outcome used in the simulation and the SACE, which was derived by simulation of both potential outcomes per patient. Despite targeting different estimands (principal stratum estimand, hypothetical estimand), the SACE-estimator and multiple imputation gave similar estimates of the treatment effect and efficiently reduced the bias compared to CCA. Also, both methods were relatively robust to omission of one covariate in the analysis, and thus violation of relevant assumptions. Although the SACE is not without controversy, we find it useful if mortality is inherent to the study population. Some degree of violation of the required assumptions is almost certain, but may be acceptable in practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144264541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Modeling to Adjust for Time Trends in Adaptive Platform Trials Utilizing Non-Concurrent Controls","authors":"Pavla Krotka,&nbsp;Martin Posch,&nbsp;Mohamed Gewily,&nbsp;Günter Höglinger,&nbsp;Marta Bofill Roig","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Utilizing non-concurrent control (NCC) data in the analysis of late-entering arms in platform trials has recently received considerable attention. While incorporating NCC can lead to increased power and lower sample sizes, it might introduce bias to the effect estimators if temporal drifts are present. Aiming to mitigate this potential bias, we propose various frequentist model-based approaches that leverage the NCC, while adjusting for time. One of the currently available models incorporates time as a categorical fixed effect, separating the trial duration into periods, defined as time intervals bounded by any arm entering or leaving the platform. In this work, we propose two extensions of this model. First, we consider an alternative definition of time by dividing the trial into fixed-length calendar time intervals. Second, we propose alternative model-based time adjustments. Specifically, we investigate adjusting for random effects and employing splines to model time with a polynomial function. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches in a simulation study and illustrate their use through a case study. We show that adjusting for time via a spline function controls the type I error in trials with a sufficiently smooth time trend pattern and may lead to power gains compared to the standard fixed effect model. However, the fixed effect model with period adjustment is the most robust model for arbitrary time trends, provided that the trend is equal across all arms. Especially, in trials with sudden changes in the time trend, the period-adjustment model is preferred if NCCs are included.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Bivariate Finite Mixture Random Effects Model for Identifying and Accommodating Outliers in Diagnostic Test Accuracy Meta-Analyses","authors":"Zelalem F. Negeri","doi":"10.1002/bimj.70062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.70062","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Outlying studies are prevalent in meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies and may lead to misleading inferences and decision-making unless their negative effect is appropriately dealt with. Statistical methods for detecting and down-weighting the impact of such studies have recently gained the attention of many researchers. However, these methods dichotomize each study in the meta-analysis as outlying or non-outlying and focus on examining the effect of outlying studies on the summary sensitivity and specificity only. We developed and evaluated a robust and flexible random-effects bivariate finite mixture model for meta-analyzing diagnostic test accuracy studies. The proposed model accounts for both the within- and across-study heterogeneity in diagnostic test results, generates the probability that each study in a meta-analysis is outlying instead of dichotomizing the status of the studies, and allows assessing the impact of outlying studies on the pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and between-study heterogeneity. Our simulation study and real-life data examples demonstrated that the proposed model was robust to the existence of outlying studies, produced precise point and interval estimates of the pooled sensitivity and specificity, and yielded similar results to the standard models when there were no outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrated relatively better bias and confidence interval width, but comparable root mean squared error and lesser coverage probability of the proposed model. Practitioners can use our proposed model as a stand-alone model to conduct a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies or as an alternative sensitivity analysis model when outlying studies are present in a meta-analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":55360,"journal":{"name":"Biometrical Journal","volume":"67 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bimj.70062","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}