Outcomes Truncated by Death in RCTs: A Simulation Study on the Survivor Average Causal Effect

Abstract

Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), but this requires making nontestable assumptions. Motivated by an ongoing RCT in very preterm infants with intraventricular hemorrhage, we performed a simulation study to compare an SACE estimator with complete case analysis (CCA) and analysis after multiple imputation of missing outcomes. We set up nine scenarios combining positive, negative, and no treatment effect on the outcome (cognitive development) and on survival at 2 years of age. Treatment effect estimates from all methods were compared in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage with regard to two true treatment effects: the treatment effect on the outcome used in the simulation and the SACE, which was derived by simulation of both potential outcomes per patient. Despite targeting different estimands (principal stratum estimand, hypothetical estimand), the SACE-estimator and multiple imputation gave similar estimates of the treatment effect and efficiently reduced the bias compared to CCA. Also, both methods were relatively robust to omission of one covariate in the analysis, and thus violation of relevant assumptions. Although the SACE is not without controversy, we find it useful if mortality is inherent to the study population. Some degree of violation of the required assumptions is almost certain, but may be acceptable in practice.