Bulletin of Volcanology最新文献

{"title":"The “cold lava” flow debacle: Media-driven viral proliferation of a confused message over Marapi’s deadly lahars of 11 May 2024","authors":"Andrew J. L. Harris, Bachtiar Mutaqin, Karim Kelfoun","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01762-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01762-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El Chichón volcanic activity before and after the Mw8.2, 2017, Chiapas earthquake, México. Is El Chichón ready to erupt?","authors":"D. Legrand, M. Perton, V. López-Landa, S. Ramos, J. Jon Selvas, M. Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, R. Campion, L. Peiffer, J. L. Macías, G. Cisneros, C. Valdéz, S. De la Cruz-Reyna","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01758-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01758-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>El Chichón volcano is the most active volcano in the state of Chiapas, México, and experienced its last Plinian eruption (VEI = 5) in 1982. To better assess its volcanic hazard, we studied its readiness to erupt by estimating changes in its internal stress state. These stress changes are difficult to calculate accurately, for example in the absence of focal mechanisms, but their existence can be indirectly revealed by the presence of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, for example following a large tectonic earthquake. We show that the seismic rate recorded at El Chichón volcano increased slightly after the large M_w8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake of 8 September 2017, Chiapas. However, this rate quickly returned to its background level after only 2 months, without any external volcanic manifestations, suggesting that the volcano is not ready to erupt in the near future. Previous observations of slight increases in the volcanic seismicity rate following large earthquakes have been explained by the presence of active hydrothermal systems in the vicinity of the volcano. We propose a similar explanation for El Chichón volcano which is known for its large hydrothermal system. Furthermore, the characteristics of the 2017 seismicity (spatial and magnitude distributions), and the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio also confirm the presence of high amounts of water near the volcano. We show that the 2017 volcano-tectonic seismicity is of hydrothermal rather than magmatic origin, in agreement with recent independent geochemical and aeromagnetic studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141585954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Volcanic jets to commercial jets: synopsis and diagnosis","authors":"Erkan Aydar, H. Evren Çubukçu, Çağatay Bal, Nicolas Cluzel, Çağdas Hakan Aladağ, Orkun Ersoy, Didier Laporte","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01759-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01759-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Aircraft encounters with volcanic ash have caused significant damage over the past 40 years, resulting in particular attention being given to the issue. We analyzed the volcanic ash-aircraft encounter database published by the USGS. We added new volcanic eruptions and parameters such as eruption types, and dry–wet. Then, we applied standard and advanced statistical methods.</p><p>Over 130 encounters have been documented in the mentioned database, with volcanic ash causing severe abrasions to the windshield, airframe, wings, and engine components. In nine cases, aircraft engines failed. We applied the binary regression analysis and some laboratory melting experiments on volcanic ash. Besides phreatomagmatism, we use the term external water in this work to describe meteoric water that enters volcanic plumes through precipitation or melting ice on ice-capped volcanoes. We demonstrated that engine failure occurs when our regression analyses undergo dry-to-wet conditions. In other words, statistically, there is a positive correlation between wet ash encounters with aircraft and engine failure incidents. Moreover, experiments conducted at 900 °C and under 40 bar pressure showed increased sintering in the dry sample, while melting textures were more prevalent in hydrated samples. We concluded that despite the various eruptive dynamics of volcanic ash, the introduction of external water into the volcanic plumes, probably causing instantaneous hydration of volcanic ash, is a common factor in engine failure incidents. Thus, we have identified the reasons behind engine failures during encounters between aircraft and volcanic ash and the specific damage that can occur depending on the type of eruption involved.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141572025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TSDSystem: a framework to collect, archive and share time series data at volcanological observatories","authors":"Carmelo Cassisi, Marco Aliotta, Andrea Cannata, Fabrizio Pistagna, Michele Prestifilippo, Mario Torrisi, Placido Montalto","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01757-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01757-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a framework designed to collect, archive, and share time series data coming from sensor networks at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (Italy), which we have developed and called Time Series Database management System (TSDSystem). The framework proposes a flexible database model for the standardization of sensor networks data and implements an optimized technology for storage and retrieval of acquired time series data. It is designed for the implementation of multiparametric databases and then suitable for development in volcanological observatories worldwide. The proposed framework provides a web service to perform writing and reading data via a standard web communication protocol, which easily enables interaction with other instruments or automatic systems. All results provided by the TSDSystem web service are represented using common data formats in the context of online services. In particular, the station networks metadata representation follows a schema inspired by the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, widely known in seismology. A web GUI (graphical user interface) is provided to test and document the web service. Additionally, basic built-in web applications are supplied with the web GUI to perform joint and synchronized time series data visualization as well as representation of stations on a geographical map. The web GUI also offers administration tools for data access policy management, creation of monitoring dashboards and data publication through web pages. The framework implements an authorization system that can be used to restrict both writing or reading operations. The TSDSystem can also be a useful tool for engineering surveillance systems. The implementing code of the framework is available with an open source license on a public repository together with a user manual.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generation of deposit-derived pyroclastic density currents by repeated crater rim failures at Stromboli Volcano (Italy)","authors":"Federico Di Traglia, Paolo Berardino, Lorenzo Borselli, Pierfrancesco Calabria, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Nicola Casagli, Francesco Casu, Francesco Latino Chiocci, Riccardo Civico, Walter De Cesare, Claudio De Luca, Matteo Del Soldato, Antonietta Esposito, Carmen Esposito, Massimiliano Favalli, Alessandro Fornaciai, Flora Giudicepietro, Teresa Gracchi, Riccardo Lanari, Giovanni Macedonio, Fernando Monterroso, Antonio Natale, Teresa Nolesini, Stefano Perna, Tullio Ricci, Claudia Romagnoli, Guglielmo Rossi, Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01761-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01761-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The gravitational instability of hot material deposited during eruptive activity can lead to the formation of glowing avalanches, commonly known as deposit-derived pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These currents can travel hundreds of metres to several kilometres from the source at exceptionally high temperatures, posing a catastrophic hazard to areas surrounding steep-slope volcanoes. The occurrence of deposit-derived PDCs is often associated with crater rim failure, which can be triggered by various factors such as magma thrust from dike injection, magma fingering, bulging or less commonly, powerful explosions. Here, the in-depth study of data from the multi-parametric monitoring network operating on Stromboli (Italy), including video surveillance, seismicity and ground deformation data, complemented by remote topographic sensing data, has facilitated the understanding of the events leading to the crater rim collapse on 9 October and 4 December 2022. The failures resulted in the remobilisation of 6.4 ± 1.0 × 10³ m³ and 88.9 ± 26.7 × 10³ m³ of material for the 9 October and the 4 December 2022, respectively, which propagated as PDCs along the NW side of the volcano and reached the sea in a few tens of seconds. These events were characterised by a preparatory phase marked by an increase in magmatic pressure in the preceding weeks, which correlated with an increase in the displacement rate of the volcano’s summit. There was also an escalation in explosive degassing, evidenced by spattering accompanied by seismic tremors in the hours before the collapse.</p><p>These events have been interpreted as an initial increase in magma vesicularity, followed by the release of gas once percolation threshold was reached. The degassing process induced densification of the magma, resulting in increased thrust on the conduit walls due to increased magmastatic pressure. This phase coincided with crater rim collapse, often followed or accompanied by the onset of lava overflow phases. A mechanism similar to the one proposed may shed light on similar phenomena observed at other volcanoes. The analysis performed in this study highlights the need for a multi-parametric and multi-platform approach to fully understand such complex phenomena. By integrating different data sources, including seismic, deformation and remote sensing data, it is possible to identify the phenomena associated with the different phases leading to crater rim collapse and the subsequent development of deposit-derived PDCs.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141572028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing hazard scenarios from monitoring data, historical chronicles, and expert elicitation: a case study of Sangay volcano, Ecuador","authors":"Benjamin Bernard, Alessandro Tadini, Pablo Samaniego, Andrea Bevilacqua, Francisco J. Vasconez, Alvaro Aravena, Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi, Silvana Hidalgo","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01754-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01754-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sangay volcano is considered as one of the most active volcanoes worldwide. Nevertheless, due to its remote location and low-impact eruptions, its eruptive history and hazard scenarios are poorly constrained. In this work, we address this issue by combining an analysis of monitoring data and historical chronicles with expert elicitation. During the last 400 years, we recognize periods of quiescence, weak, and enhanced eruptive activity, lasting from several months to several years, punctuated by eruptive pulses, lasting from a few hours to a few days. Sangay volcano has been mainly active since the seventeenth century, with weak eruptive activity as the most common regime, although there have also been several periods of quiescence. During this period, eruptive pulses with VEI 1–3 occurred mainly during enhanced eruptive activity and produced far-reaching impacts due to ash fallout to the west and long-runout lahars to the south-east. Four eruptive pulse scenarios are considered in the expert elicitation: strong ash venting (SAV, VEI 1–2), violent Strombolian (VS, VEI 2–3), sub-Plinian (SPL, VEI 3–4), and Plinian (PL, VEI 4–5). SAV is identified as the most likely scenario, while PL has the smallest probability of occurrence. The elicitation results show high uncertainty about the probability of occurrence of VS and SPL. Large uncertainties are also observed for eruption duration and bulk fallout volume for all eruptive scenarios, while average column height is better characterized, particularly for SAV and VS. We interpret these results as a consequence of the lack of volcano-physical data, which could be reduced with further field studies. This study shows how historical reconstruction and expert elicitation can help to develop hazard scenarios with uncertainty assessment for poorly known volcanoes, representing a first step towards the elaboration of appropriate hazard maps and subsequent planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterising, quantifying, and accessing eruption source parameters of explosive volcanic eruptions for operational simulation of tephra dispersion: a current view and future perspectives","authors":"Samantha Engwell, Larry G. Mastin, Costanza Bonadonna, Sara Barsotti, Natalia I. Deligne, Bergrun A. Oladottir","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01706-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01706-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Eruption source parameters (ESPs) are crucial for characterising volcanic eruptions and are essential inputs to numerical models used for hazard assessment. Key ESPs of explosive volcanic eruptions include plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and grain-size distribution. Some of these ESPs can be directly observed during an eruption, but others are difficult to measure in real-time, or indeed, accurately and precisely quantify afterwards. Estimates of ESPs for eruptions that cannot be observed, for example, due to the remote location of a volcano or poor weather conditions, are often defined using expert judgement and data from past eruptions, both from the volcano of interest and analogue volcanoes farther afield. Analysis of such information is time intensive and difficult, particularly during eruption response. These difficulties have resulted in the production of datasets to aid quick identification of ESPs prior to or during an eruption for use in operational response settings such as those at volcano observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. These resources include the Mastin et al. (2009a) ESP dataset and the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes and European Catalogue of Volcanoes aviation tables. Here, we review and compare these resources, which take different approaches to assigning ESPs. We identify future areas for development of these resources, highlighting the need for frequent updates as more knowledge of volcanic activity is gained and as modelling capabilities and requirements change.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141502228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reappraisal of the volcanic source of the Rocourt Tephra, a widespread chronostratigraphic marker aged ca. 78–80 ka in Western Europe","authors":"Etienne Juvigné, André Pouclet, Stéphane Pirson, Jacques-Marie Bardintzeff","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01756-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01756-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Rocourt Tephra (RT) is a widespread stratigraphic marker distributed in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands<i>,</i> where it is used for stratigraphic correlations, dating of host sediments and of Middle Palaeolithic archaeological assemblages, sometimes including Neandertal remains. Its age is estimated between 78 and 80 ka. This tephra has been linked to the West Eifel Volcanic Field in Germany, but its corresponding source volcano is unknown. Such a discovery would make it possible to confirm or challenge the age of the tephra, because this source volcano could be dated by various methods. It would also be possible to know the composition of the magma, which cannot be determined from the altered clasts of the tephra, as well as the original mineralogical composition, thereby strengthening the validity of the marker by providing more distinctive data. Two Eifel monogenic volcanoes have been cited as potential sources, the Dreiser Weiher and the Pulvermaar, due to their large sizes and broadly similar compositions. A study of the tephra layers from these volcanoes was carried out to compare their mineral compositions with that of the Rocourt Tephra. Based on new analytical data on the composition and magmatic trends of pyroxenes, it is concluded that neither of the two volcanoes can be the source of the RT.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141502226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different physics but similar dependence of runout distance with discharge rate: the duality of pyroclastic density currents","authors":"Olivier Roche, Nourddine Azzaoui, Arnaud Guillin","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01750-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01750-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We address emplacement mechanisms of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) through relationships between their runout distance and mass discharge rate of their parent eruptions. Assuming axisymmetric propagation typical of dilute currents that are little controlled by topography, we apply a simple method to estimate the runout distance of concentrated PDCs channelized in valleys. With these data, the runout distance of concentrated currents varies, as for their dilute counterparts, with the discharge rate to the power ~ 0.5, the latter being the consequence of radial propagation of the currents. This simple dependence between runout distance and discharge rate is both surprising and remarkable considering the fundamentally different natures of dilute or concentrated PDCs, which are governed by complex physics involving many parameters. This dependence further suggests that particle settling velocity, which controls the rate of decrease of the flow mass, has a second-order effect on the runout distance. We argue that the hindered settling model established for particle suspensions in a static fluid is relevant for estimating the settling velocity of particles in concentrated PDCs. Settling velocities of ~ 0.1 to 10 cm/s calculated for some natural examples correspond to deposit aggradation rates of the same order. These rates imply timescales of deposit formation significantly shorter than flow durations in some cases, suggesting that onset of deposition occurs at late stages of emplacement.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141502227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Did steam boost the height and growth rate of the giant Hunga eruption plume?","authors":"Larry G. Mastin, Alexa R. Van Eaton, Shane J. Cronin","doi":"10.1007/s00445-024-01749-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-024-01749-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The eruption of Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a higher plume and faster-growing umbrella cloud than has ever been previously recorded. The plume height exceeded 58 km, and the umbrella grew to 450 km in diameter within 50 min. Assuming an umbrella thickness of 10 km, this growth rate implied an average volume injection rate into the umbrella of 330–500 km³ s⁻¹. Conventional relationships between plume height, umbrella-growth rate, and mass eruption rate suggest that this period of activity should have injected a few to several cubic kilometers of rock particles (tephra) into the plume. Yet tephra fall deposits on neighboring islands are only a few centimeters thick and can be reproduced using ash transport simulations with only 0.1–0.2 km³ erupted volume (dense-rock equivalent). How could such a powerful eruption contain so little tephra? Here, we propose that seawater mixing at the vent boosted the plume height and umbrella growth rate. Using the one-dimensional (1-D) steady plume model Plumeria, we find that a plume fed by ~90% water vapor at a temperature of 100 °C (referred to here as steam) could have exceeded 50 km height while keeping the injection rate of solids low enough to be consistent with Hunga’s modest tephra-fall deposit volume. Steam is envisaged to rise from intense phreatomagmatic jets or pyroclastic density currents entering the ocean. Overall, the height and expansion rate of Hunga’s giant plume is consistent with the total mass of fall deposits plus underwater density current deposits, even though most of the erupted mass decoupled from the high plume. This example represents a class of high (&gt; 10 km), ash-poor, steam-driven plumes, that also includes Kīlauea (2020) and Fukutoku-oka-no-ba (2021). Their height is driven by heat flux following well-established relations; however, most of the heat is contained in steam rather than particles. As a result, the heights of these water-rich plumes do not follow well-known relations with the mass eruption rate of tephra.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141502229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}