{"title":"Geopolitical Risks, Political Tensions and the European Economy","authors":"Jamel Saadaoui, Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Jan-Egbert Sturm","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102644","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 102644"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Online social media and populism in Europe","authors":"Mihai Mutascu , Cristina Strango , Camelia Turcu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of social media (e.g., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn) on left-wing and right-wing populist voting patterns within the European Union 27 (EU-27). Our empirical analysis is based on an Ordered Probit model, over 2014–2020. We differentiate between politically oriented communication and general communication, through social media. We find that politically oriented communication on platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn contributes to the electoral success of right-wing parties. In contrast, active engagement of left-wing parties on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn appears not to enhance their electoral success. This suggests that right-wing parties effectively leverage platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn to disseminate populist ideologies, while left-wing parties face challenges with their engagement strategies on these platforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 102619"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143171619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate activism favors pro-environmental consumption","authors":"Marco A. Marini, Samuel Nocito","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102642","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102642","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether climate activism favors pro-environmental consumption by examining the impact of Fridays for Future (FFF) protests in Italy on second-hand automobile sales in rally-affected areas. Leveraging data on 10 million automobile transactions occurring before and after FFF mobilizations, we exploit rainfall on the day of the event as an exogenous source of attendance variation. Our findings reveal a reduction in both the total number of cars purchased and their average CO2 emissions, with an uptick in the market share of low-emission vehicles and a corresponding decrease in the market share of high-emission counterparts. We test for two potential mechanisms at work: one mediated by an increase in environmental awareness, the other induced by a rational anticipation of future stricter regulations. Empirical evidence suggests that the latter mechanism is generally more pronounced than the former. However, the first channel seems likely to be at work among individuals aged 18–25, a group that is potentially more involved in the FFF movement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 102642"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Third-party interest, resource value, and the likelihood of conflict","authors":"Giacomo Battiston , Matteo Bizzarri , Riccardo Franceschin","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resource wealth induces predation incentives but also conflict-deterring third-party involvement. As a result, the relation between resource value and conflict probability is a priori unclear. This paper studies such relation with a theoretical framework involving a potential aggressor and a powerful third party. First, we show that, if the third party’s incentives to intervene are sufficiently strong, conflict probability is hump-shaped in the resource value. Second, we theoretically establish that resource value increases the third party’s incentive to side with the resource-rich defendant in case of intervention, providing another mechanism for stabilization when the resource value is high. Third, we explain how our theory relates to policy-relevant case studies involving conflict-ridden areas (including inter-state or civil conflicts) and powerful third parties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 102635"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Party selectors, voters, and the choice of productive representatives under different types of list proportional representation","authors":"Thomas Däubler , Lukáš Linek","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do party selectors or voters choose more productive politicians? Selectors may promote quality candidates and have an informational advantage over voters, but quality need not be the key criterion for nominations, and voters may be sufficiently informed to correct inferior decisions. We empirically examine whether the type of principal responsible for the selection affects individual parliamentary work (attendance, bills, amendments, questions, speeches). Flexible-list proportional representation systems are both interesting and analytically useful in this context, since seats within parties are first allocated to candidates reaching a certain number of personal votes, while any remaining seats are awarded based on the pre-electoral list rank. This allows us to compare three types of elected candidates: selector-chosen, voter-chosen, and doubly-chosen representatives. Analysing data from the Czech Republic in the period between 2002 and 2021, we find that voters have a stronger preference for candidates with high formal education than selectors. We do not find differences in parliamentary behaviour between selector-chosen and voter-chosen types. The results speak against a potential trade-off between giving voters more influence on within-party seat allocation and the quality of chosen representatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102618"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wealth inequality and mega events","authors":"Denis Ivanov , Gaygysyz Ashyrov","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wealth inequality, both within and between countries, is on the rise, prompting various interventions to address this issue. In this context, some governments could perceive hosting mega events as an opportunity to generate economic and social benefits through directed long-lasting investments and to converge with other countries in the region. However, the impact of these costly events on wealth inequality could be detrimental, depending on the quality of existing distribution channels. This paper aims to understand the potential role of mega events in addressing wealth inequality. We empirically test the impact of sports mega events on wealth inequality across more than 120 countries. Utilizing panel data analysis on a comprehensive dataset dating back to 1900, we find that hosting mega events such as the Olympic Games, FIFA World Cups, and Universal Expositions is associated with an increase in the wealth shares of the top 1% and 10%, often at the expense of the bottom 50%. This effect is double in magnitude in non-democracies and non-OECD countries, as well as higher during the organization of FIFA World Cups. We propose two possible explanations for this phenomenon: episodes of extreme growth during the organization of mega events that disproportionately benefit the wealthiest individuals, and vested interests associated with the organization of such events. Our results remain statistically significant under various model specifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102615"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The evolution of affluent support for redistribution in Germany in the context of rising inequalities","authors":"Bilal El Rafhi, Thibault Darcillon","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the changing attitudes of the most affluent individuals towards state intervention in redistribution in Germany in the context of growing inequality. Contrary to the predictions from traditional political economy models, a growing body of research suggests that the most affluent individuals could support more redistributive policies in reaction to higher income inequality due to altruism, fear of externalities (such as rising crime rates), and potential economic and social costs associated with downward mobility. Using survey data from the European Social Survey (ESS) from 2002 to 2020, our results provide robust evidence of our main prediction: we find a significant relative increase in support for redistribution among the top 30% of earners (compared to the bottom 70% of earners). Our heterogeneous analysis then reveals that the substantial increase in support for redistribution among the affluent has increased among supporters of the political left. This trend seems, however, to be comparatively less pronounced in East Germany.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102614"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world","authors":"Karen Jackson , Oleksandr Shepotylo","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102612"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142320317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joscha Beckmann , Robert L. Czudaj , Michael Murach
{"title":"Macroeconomic effects from media coverage of the China–U.S. trade war on selected EU countries","authors":"Joscha Beckmann , Robert L. Czudaj , Michael Murach","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of media coverage related to the trade conflict between China and the U.S. for selected countries of the European Union. Our main aim is to evaluate whether media coverage constitutes a relevant transmission channel for macroeconomic effects. We evaluate the response of survey-based macroeconomic expectations, stock prices, and realized industrial production. Our analysis focuses on Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in order to allow for heterogeneous effects across major EU countries. We find significant effects on expectations, stock prices, and industrial production. Especially, a significantly negative effect on current account expectations is observed for three of the four considered EU countries (Germany, Italy, and Spain).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102611"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142320316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Beyond the party push: Gender differences in voters’ persuasion","authors":"Giulia Savio","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102613","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102613","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite ongoing efforts to bridge gender disparities, women continue to be underrepresented in political spheres. This paper proposes a novel explanation for the female disadvantage in electoral success, focusing on politicians’ capacity to broaden their electoral base and appeal to voters from opposing parties. Drawing on Swiss elections, this paper leverages various aspects of the electoral system. In Switzerland, the electoral process is characterized by open lists, allowing voters to select candidates within their preferred party, and cross-voting, enabling them to choose candidates from other party lists. Additionally, electoral registers provide data on the number of preference votes garnered by each candidate, categorized by the voter’s preferred party. The analysis reveals that individual preference votes play a pivotal role in driving gender disparities in candidates’ electoral achievements. While the gender gap in preferences expressed by supporters of a particular party is less robust, male politicians outperform their female counterparts significantly in collecting preference votes through cross-voting. This implies that male politicians are more skilled at persuading voters from rival parties. These findings, motivated by various underlying mechanisms, carry considerable policy implications concerning the approach to addressing gender inequalities in politics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102613"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024001150/pdfft?md5=6f8f28f97398246e29324cfb00461b55&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024001150-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142272343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}