The dynamics of revolutions

Abstract

We study the dynamics of revolutions by extending Kuran’s (1989) dynamic model of mass protests, allowing dissenters to choose not only whether to dissent but also how much. In the model, regimes may differ in how harshly they sanction small vs. large dissent; and societies may differ in how individuals perceive the cost of small vs. large deviations from their own ideological convictions. Such a generalization provides a typology of revolutions and predicts who is more likely to start a revolution: those whose ideology is close to the regime’s (moderates) or those far from it (extremists). It also provides predictions about the ideology they will express, how this will dynamically change during a revolution and about which policies may trigger a revolution and which may consolidate the regime’s strength. In particular, moderates are more likely to start a revolution if individuals are sensitive to even small deviations from their ideology. This sensitivity makes moderates voice their criticism despite only slightly disagreeing with the regime. Extremists, on the other hand, are silenced, because expressing their extreme views bears heavy sanctioning. This further implies that a popular policy may trigger or accelerate a revolution, because it indirectly spurs more people to become “moderate” hence speak their minds.