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Geopolitical risk and stock prices 地缘政治风险与股票价格
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102553
Hakan Yilmazkuday
{"title":"Geopolitical risk and stock prices","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between 1985M1-2023M9. The results show that a positive unit shock of global geopolitical risk (normalized to one standard deviation) reduces stock prices (normalized to one standard deviation) in a statistically significant way by 0.80 in Latvia, 0.71 in China, 0.62 in the Euro Area, 0.50 in Sweden, 0.42 in the United Kingdom, 0.39 in the United States, 0.38 in Switzerland, 0.34 in Israel, 0.28 in Canada, and 0.21 in Denmark in a year following the shock, whereas it increases those only in Iceland by 0.28 that can be used to hedge against any geopolitical risk. Subsample analyses further suggest that the negative effects of the same shock exist in several economies (including the United States, China and Euro Area) during the first half of the sample period that coincides with the geopolitical events that the United States is involved with, whereas they only exist in Russia, Poland, Euro Area and the United Kingdom for the second half of the sample period, suggesting that the Russo–Ukrainian War has mostly affected the stock prices in these nearby economies. It is implied that the geographical location of geopolitical events as well as the countries involved are important indicators to understand the effects of any global geopolitical risk on stock prices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102553"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141133253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows 投资于朋友：地缘政治结盟在外国直接投资流动中的作用
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102508
Shekhar Aiyar , Davide Malacrino , Andrea F. Presbitero
{"title":"Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows","authors":"Shekhar Aiyar ,&nbsp;Davide Malacrino ,&nbsp;Andrea F. Presbitero","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Firms and policy makers are increasingly looking at friend-shoring to make supply chains less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. We test whether these considerations are shaping FDI flows, using investment-level data on over 300,000 instances of greenfield FDI between 2003 and 2022. Estimates from a gravity model, which controls for standard push and pull factors, show an economically significant role for geopolitical alignment in driving the geographical footprint of bilateral investments. This result is robust to the inclusion of standard bilateral drivers of FDI – such as geographic distance and trade flows – and the strength of the effect has increased since 2018, with the resurgence of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Moreover, our results are not limited to greenfield FDI, but hold also for M&amp;As.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102508"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139921825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities 全球风险的股市溢出效应和对冲机会
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102533
Evangelos Salachas , Georgios P. Kouretas , Nikiforos T. Laopodis , Prodromos Vlamis
{"title":"Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities","authors":"Evangelos Salachas ,&nbsp;Georgios P. Kouretas ,&nbsp;Nikiforos T. Laopodis ,&nbsp;Prodromos Vlamis","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we shed light on the linkage between several global risks and stock market returns. We use a dataset including G7, BRICS, MENA, and SAHEL group countries for a period of more than 30 years. We explore the spillover effects on global stock markets fueled by geopolitical, climatic, and global health risks. We provide evidence of a significant negative impact of geopolitical shocks on stock markets across countries. Further, we document that geopolitical shocks contribute to the spillover transmission of stock market volatility We also document that climate change and the global health crisis constitute risks that should be considered as a factor that heightens geopolitical risk. Finally, we identify possible strategies to hedge against geopolitical risk using a specific set of financial assets such as artwork.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102533"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140763468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Clearing the smog ceiling: The impact of women’s political empowerment on air quality in European regions 清除烟雾天花板：妇女政治赋权对欧洲地区空气质量的影响
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102551
Vicente Rios , Izaskun Barba , Lisa Gianmoena , Pedro Pascual
{"title":"Clearing the smog ceiling: The impact of women’s political empowerment on air quality in European regions","authors":"Vicente Rios ,&nbsp;Izaskun Barba ,&nbsp;Lisa Gianmoena ,&nbsp;Pedro Pascual","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study explores the impact of female political empowerment on air quality outcomes. Women’s stronger environmental concerns and pro-environmental behaviors may lead to better air quality as they progressively break the glass ceiling in politics. To test this hypothesis, we employ a novel data set on regional air pollutant emissions and women’s political empowerment for a sample of 230 European regions of 27 EU countries. We apply instrumental variables and partial identification methods to ensure that our results are not influenced by confounding variables. We find that female political empowerment is consistently associated with improved air quality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102551"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000533/pdfft?md5=ffe5820eea2d86c7ce2a392c3d8647b2&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000533-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141163846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The political economy of education: Politician criminality and higher education institutions 教育的政治经济学：政治犯罪与高等教育机构
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102555
Rolly Kukreja
{"title":"The political economy of education: Politician criminality and higher education institutions","authors":"Rolly Kukreja","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper establishes the links between politician criminality and higher education provision by studying the causal impact of electing leaders with accusations of serious crimes on the opening of new publicly funded colleges in India. Using a regression discontinuity design with close elections between candidates accused of serious crimes and candidates not accused of serious crimes, I show that constituencies represented by state legislature members accused of serious crimes are less likely to witness openings of new state government funded colleges. Further, this effect is not compensated by openings of new private colleges. This negative impact is higher for constituencies with representatives aligned with the party governing at the state level, confirming the notion that access to power is essential for the ability to influence provision of higher education institutes. Finally, this study provides suggestive evidence that such lower provision of state government colleges is most likely to impact the lowest income groups in society.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102555"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141144642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Overestimation of social security payments reduces preferences for spending on social policy 高估社会保障金会降低对社会政策支出的偏好
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102557
Alexei Zakharov
{"title":"Overestimation of social security payments reduces preferences for spending on social policy","authors":"Alexei Zakharov","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We test the fiscal illusion hypothesis, which concerns whether an awareness of the government’s costs and benefits is linked to preferences for redistribution and social policy. We conduct an <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>2016</mn></mrow></math></span> survey experiment in Russia—a country where many taxpayers are not aware of social security contributions that are paid by employers on their behalf. The treatment consists of a video with a calculation of the total amount of taxes and social security contributions that typically arise from an individual’s salary. We show that for individuals who initially overestimated these payments, information provision increases preferences for redistribution, while overall, the awareness of these payments reduces preferences for state spending, possibly due to reduced trust in the government and lower satisfaction with state-provided services. This is consistent with the explanation that new information about taxes and social security contributions signals a low state quality. These results persist in a follow-up survey given six weeks later.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102557"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141131191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland 民粹主义者与财政政策：波兰案例
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102556
Maciej Wysocki , Cezary Wojcik , Andreas Freytag
{"title":"Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland","authors":"Maciej Wysocki ,&nbsp;Cezary Wojcik ,&nbsp;Andreas Freytag","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The past decade has witnessed an increase in populist movements across the world. Some of those movements have gained strong political support and formed populist governments promising new sets of economic and fiscal policies. This raises the pertinent policy question: how do such populist governments influence fiscal policy outcomes? We approach this question by looking at the case of Poland which according to several recent studies has experienced the highest level of populist rhetoric in recent years. We performed two types of analyses. First, standard time series estimations of fiscal sustainability parameters that are typical for literature on fiscal sustainability, for both full sample and rolling-windows. Second, a counter-factual analysis using the synthetic control method (SCM) which is a useful complementary framework for our analysis of populists’ economic performance. Overall, our estimates suggest that in the period of 2016–2019 fiscal sustainability parameters were the lowest since Poland joined the EU in 2004. The SCM analysis, in turn, showed that populist PiS fiscal policies might have been viable compared to the counter-factual data. At the same time, we also noted sensitivity of SCM across several dimensions and conclude that such sensitivity analysis might be useful or even necessary in future studies on populism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102556"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reinforcing each other: How the combination of European and domestic reforms increased competition in liberalized industries 相互促进：欧洲改革与国内改革的结合如何增强自由化行业的竞争
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102552
Tommaso Crescioli
{"title":"Reinforcing each other: How the combination of European and domestic reforms increased competition in liberalized industries","authors":"Tommaso Crescioli","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is a consensus over Europe’s transformation into a highly competitive economy through a series of ambitious pro-competition reforms. However, both the European Commission and national actors have legislative authority over competition policies. Thus, who are the critical actors behind this legislative and economic transformation in this multi-level system? Focusing on the liberalization of state-owned industries and using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the paper shows that the effectiveness of European directives in decreasing firm-level market power increased with the extent of preceding domestic pro-competition reforms. For every unit increase of the early domestic reform index, EU directives decrease market power in liberalized industries by an additional 7.8%. However, this effect is not significant in countries that did not reform their industries ex-ante. This finding contradicts the established view in the literature identifying the Commission as the dominant force driving this transformation, which implemented ambitious reforms by often overcoming the resistance of reluctant national governments. Instead, it is shown that the effectiveness of the Commission’s reforms depends on the support of domestic actors and compatible national institutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102552"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000545/pdfft?md5=d171376e82dc5d06c562d34603998eed&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000545-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141084631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Priming attitudes toward immigrants: Implications for migration research and survey design 引导对移民的态度：对移民研究和调查设计的影响
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102554
Patrick Dylong , Paul Setzepfand , Silke Uebelmesser
{"title":"Priming attitudes toward immigrants: Implications for migration research and survey design","authors":"Patrick Dylong ,&nbsp;Paul Setzepfand ,&nbsp;Silke Uebelmesser","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using data from two representative population surveys with more than 3000 participants, we examine the effect of randomized priming interventions on attitudes toward immigrants and preferences for immigration policy. We document robust null effects of these interventions in two experimental settings, across two surveys, and for a range of specifications. Our results suggest that (economic) attitudes toward immigrants may be less sensitive to priming than previous research suggests when priming intensity is moderate. We thus (i) provide evidence for settings in which intentional priming interventions are ineffective, and (ii) suggest a reference point for unintentional priming effects. We conclude that researchers should not be overly concerned about confounding priming effects when designing surveys to elicit attitudes toward immigration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102554"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000569/pdfft?md5=1a0d4e483a459e3482145a5c556ba286&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000569-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141135010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics 超越国界：评估地缘政治紧张局势对主权风险动态的影响
IF 2 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102550
António Afonso , José Alves , Sofia Monteiro
{"title":"Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics","authors":"António Afonso ,&nbsp;José Alves ,&nbsp;Sofia Monteiro","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies during the period 1984–2022, through the implementation of OLS-Fixed Effects regressions and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find that geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty in border countries contribute to the rise of European country's sovereign risk as measured by 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and bond returns. Moreover, this interconnection is more pronounced during turbulent times such as the subprime crisis. Lastly, we found that geopolitical tensions in other country’ groups such as South America and Asia have a significant impact on the government risks of European countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 102550"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000521/pdfft?md5=fca206f9ad7dca1330c6d9e15ef0c602&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000521-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141066777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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