{"title":"Political connections and participation in global value chains: Evidence from MENA firms","authors":"Nora Aboushady , Chahir Zaki","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102742","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102742","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use new data on political connections from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to examine the impact of connections on firms' participation in international trade through global value chains (GVCs) for six lower middle income MENA countries and territories (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, and Lebanon). Our findings add to the literature on “hidden protection” and corruption in the region: trade- and investment policies and regulations are tailored to benefit or protect politically connected firms. Our findings suggest that politically connected firms are more likely to participate in GVCs by 9.8 percentage points and that the intensity of their participation in GVCs increases by 4.1 percentage points. Combining political connections and grand corruption increases firms' participation in GVCs by 13.6 percentage points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102742"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chiara Tomasi , Quoc Thai Le , Thi Ngoc Lan Nguyen
{"title":"Greasing or Grinding? Regulatory context and the productivity effects of corruption: Evidence from Vietnamese SMEs","authors":"Chiara Tomasi , Quoc Thai Le , Thi Ngoc Lan Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of bribery on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. Using panel data from the Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprise Survey (VSMES) and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity, we find that corruption generally reduces firm productivity. However, its impact varies across institutional contexts: the negative effect is stronger in provinces with efficient regulatory environments and weaker where firms face high bureaucratic burdens or identify government inefficiency as a key constraint. These findings support a weak form of the “grease the wheels” hypothesis, suggesting bribery may act as a costly coping strategy in poorly governed settings. The results highlight the importance of regulatory quality in moderating the effects of corruption and point to the need for reforms that address both corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102727"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144771485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of increased women's legislative representation on women's well-being","authors":"Robin Grier , Kevin Grier , Florence Muhoza","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the causal effects of large and sustained increases in female legislative representation on several measures of women's well-being. Across all our outcome variables, we find no significant results. These null results continue to hold when we use different criteria for defining a significant increase or allow for differences in treatment effects based on the country's political regime. We conclude that, at least on average, this increased representation does not significantly increase measures of women's well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102735"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leaders and institutions as joint determinants of economic growth","authors":"Xiangyu Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102726","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I argue that national leaders and institutions jointly determine cross-country income differences. I document two novel cross-country stylized facts: (1) national leaders in democracies have more pre-tenure work experience, a novel measure of leaders’ capabilities, than those in non-democracies, and (2) leaders with more diverse work experience lead to better economic performance in democracies and to higher regime stability in non-democracies. I establish robustness by several instrumental variable approaches, a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, and (quasi-)random leadership transitions. I build an endogenous growth model with political selection and institutional transitions to rationalize these facts. Quantitative exercises based on this model suggest that the differences in the channel of political selection and in the role of leaders can explain the persistent income gap between democracies and non-democracies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102726"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Central bank independence and fiscal rule under populist leader's regime","authors":"Hoyong Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102728","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102728","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the relationship between fiscal rules, populist leadership, and central bank independence. It posits that populist leaders, driven by the desire to stimulate economic activity and gain public approval through short-term expansionary policies, are more inclined to undermine central bank independence when they are constrained by fiscal rules. The findings reveal that fiscal constraints significantly increase the likelihood of weakened central bank independence under populist leadership, a result that remains robust across various model specifications. These effects are particularly pronounced in political contexts where populist leaders exert greater authority and encounter stronger incentives to prioritize monetary policy over fiscal measures. Moreover, the adverse impact on central bank independence is exacerbated when fiscal rules impose stricter constraints on short-term expenditures, with reduced independence primarily reflected in shifts in central bank policies. These results highlight the importance of political dynamics in fiscal and monetary institutions and emphasize the need for complementary measures to stabilize macroeconomic conditions through coordinated fiscal rules and central bank independence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102728"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sebastian C. Anastasi , Alexander Marsella , Vitor Melo , E. Frank Stephenson , Gary A. Wagner
{"title":"Short-term rental bans and the hotel industry: Evidence from New York city","authors":"Sebastian C. Anastasi , Alexander Marsella , Vitor Melo , E. Frank Stephenson , Gary A. Wagner","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the gains and involvement of the hotel industry in New York City’s short-term rental ban. Building on capture theory, we document that the hotel industry was better positioned to overcome collective action problems associated with lobbying and spent an order of magnitude more than home-sharing platforms like Airbnb in political contributions, particularly prior to the ban. We find that hotels’ average daily rates increased by $14 to 19 per night, depending on specification, and revenue increased by roughly $2.1 to 2.9 billion over the first eighteen months following the ban. By contrast, the effect on room nights is small and imprecisely estimated, so the revenue increase was mostly due to the increase in room rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102725"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The OPEC/MENA/Arab nexus and the missing democratic transition","authors":"Martin Paldam","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The democratic transition is a strong relation in the data, as analyzed elsewhere. This paper deals with the only large exception: The 26 countries in the OPEC/MENA/Arab nexus have no democratic transition. The explanation is complex as it requires (at least) two intertwined theories: The <em>oil theory</em> (for OPEC) and the <em>institutional genes theory</em> (for MENA). More than half of the OPEC and MENA groups overlap, and in addition all but two of the MENA countries are Arab, with similar language, religion, history, and culture, giving spatial effects. The paper is an attempt to untangle and test the theories, and demonstrate that both theories are needed, hence the overlapping countries that are both OPEC and MENA are especially far from democracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102731"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can term limits reduce political sabotage? Evidence from negative campaigning in gubernatorial races","authors":"Yizhaq Minchuk , Ohad Raveh","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the role of term limits in reducing sabotage in political contests, vis-à-vis negative campaigning in gubernatorial races. A model of political contests, with endogenous sabotage and asymmetries in electoral support and future terms, indicates that the (aggregate) extent of sabotage may decline when incumbents are term-limited (lame-ducks). We validate this using close to 7 million political TV ads from U.S. gubernatorial elections (2000–2020) while leveraging plausibly exogenous variations across space and time in state term-limit regimes. Results show that campaigning is substantially less negative when incumbents are term-limited: having a lame-duck incumbent in the race decreases campaign negativity by approximately one standard deviation. The results shed light on the potential role of term limits in reducing the extent of sabotage in political contests, as well as on hitherto overlooked political externalities of reelection prospects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102724"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The “German Vote” and its consequences: (Un)reliable parties in multilateral bargaining under private information","authors":"David Piazolo","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102719","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102719","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper theoretically investigates the strategic implications of varying <em>reliability</em> of bargaining partners under unanimous and non-unanimous voting. In a sequential two-period model, three players (one proposer, two responders) bargain over the distribution of a pie. One responder has private information about his valuation of finding an agreement, implying signaling values that differ substantially between voting rules and are affected by the other responder’s <em>reliability</em>. The other responder is of a non-strategic “robot” type, who is unreliable in the sense that in the first period, he may vote “no” after announcing a “yes”-vote. Under unanimity rule, the responder with private information benefits from voting “no” because this signals that he requires a larger compensation in a future period. In contrast, under majority rule, voting “no” is unattractive due to the <em>fear of being excluded</em> from a future coalition. Under both voting rules, one responder becoming less reliable negatively affects the other responder’s willingness to vote “yes”, making efficient agreements increasingly difficult to achieve. Under majority rule, the presence of unreliable parties can lead to more parties being included in the winning coalition, as demonstrated by an extension of the model. However, some of these insights are contingent on the specific assumptions of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102719"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Democratic engagement in the shadow of authoritarian repression: Evidence from Chile (2019–2023)","authors":"Armando N.G.L. Martins","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article analyzes the long-term effects of authoritarian repression on democratic engagement (protests and voting) in Chile, focusing on the 2019–2020 <em>Estallido Social</em> protests and the 2020–2023 constitutional plebiscite process. It uses measures such as the location of military bases before 1970 and the number of victims during Pinochet’s regime to capture the intensity of past repression. The study also examines indicators of contemporary political behavior linked to the legacy of this repression, including public demonstrations, NGO activity, memorial sites, and social media engagement. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimates suggest that exposure to political violence continues to shape civic and electoral behavior even after three decades after the end of the dictatorship. Moreover, municipalities more affected by dictatorship-era violence were more likely to protest but less likely to participate in the constitutional plebiscite. These areas did not consistently oppose incumbent politicians or favor independent candidates. Overall, the findings suggest that historical repression can contribute to greater reaction on the streets to political violence and lower levels of electoral engagement in contemporary democracies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102704"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}