{"title":"领导人和制度是经济增长的共同决定因素","authors":"Xiangyu Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102726","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I argue that national leaders and institutions jointly determine cross-country income differences. I document two novel cross-country stylized facts: (1) national leaders in democracies have more pre-tenure work experience, a novel measure of leaders’ capabilities, than those in non-democracies, and (2) leaders with more diverse work experience lead to better economic performance in democracies and to higher regime stability in non-democracies. I establish robustness by several instrumental variable approaches, a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, and (quasi-)random leadership transitions. I build an endogenous growth model with political selection and institutional transitions to rationalize these facts. Quantitative exercises based on this model suggest that the differences in the channel of political selection and in the role of leaders can explain the persistent income gap between democracies and non-democracies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102726"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Leaders and institutions as joint determinants of economic growth\",\"authors\":\"Xiangyu Shi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102726\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper, I argue that national leaders and institutions jointly determine cross-country income differences. I document two novel cross-country stylized facts: (1) national leaders in democracies have more pre-tenure work experience, a novel measure of leaders’ capabilities, than those in non-democracies, and (2) leaders with more diverse work experience lead to better economic performance in democracies and to higher regime stability in non-democracies. I establish robustness by several instrumental variable approaches, a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, and (quasi-)random leadership transitions. I build an endogenous growth model with political selection and institutional transitions to rationalize these facts. Quantitative exercises based on this model suggest that the differences in the channel of political selection and in the role of leaders can explain the persistent income gap between democracies and non-democracies.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51439,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"volume\":\"89 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102726\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268025000862\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268025000862","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Leaders and institutions as joint determinants of economic growth
In this paper, I argue that national leaders and institutions jointly determine cross-country income differences. I document two novel cross-country stylized facts: (1) national leaders in democracies have more pre-tenure work experience, a novel measure of leaders’ capabilities, than those in non-democracies, and (2) leaders with more diverse work experience lead to better economic performance in democracies and to higher regime stability in non-democracies. I establish robustness by several instrumental variable approaches, a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, and (quasi-)random leadership transitions. I build an endogenous growth model with political selection and institutional transitions to rationalize these facts. Quantitative exercises based on this model suggest that the differences in the channel of political selection and in the role of leaders can explain the persistent income gap between democracies and non-democracies.
期刊介绍:
The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).