{"title":"Friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring in factories America, Asia, and Europe amid rising geopolitical tensions","authors":"Mitsuyo Ando , Kazunobu Hayakawa , Fukunari Kimura , Hiroshi Mukunoki","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102804","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102804","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study empirically investigates changes in sourcing patterns across three major production hubs: Factory America, Factory Asia, and Factory Europe. Specifically, using international and intra-national trade data from 2015 to 2024, we examine four types of “shoring” strategies, i.e., political friend-shoring, economic friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring, simultaneously. Our findings provide quantitative evidence of increasing reliance on political friend-shoring, weakening dependence on near-shoring, and recent progress in reshoring amid heightened geopolitical risks, whereas economic friend-shoring appears unattractive on average. Moreover, we show that greater product substitutability does not necessarily lead to more significant changes in sourcing. We also revealed a notable difference across regions in political friend-shoring. The degree of its dependence is consistently most substantial for Factory America, while political motivations remain relatively unattractive for Factory Asia, with some specific variations even within the same Factory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102804"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sourav Das , Patrick Hufschmidt , Fabian Mankat , Konstantinos Theocharopoulos
{"title":"Political budget cycles in federal systems: The case of India","authors":"Sourav Das , Patrick Hufschmidt , Fabian Mankat , Konstantinos Theocharopoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election periods. While swing states consistently receive higher transfers due to their electoral competitiveness, the election-period increase is larger for non-swing states. This occurs because non-swing states are targeted primarily during federal elections: allocating transfers to them in state elections is not advantageous for the federal incumbent, as it has little effect on the probability of winning those state elections. To test these predictions, we compile a panel dataset of Indian states from 2006 to 2022. Using fixed effects specifications, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical model: discretionary transfers are significantly higher in federal election periods, swing states receive more discretionary transfers in non-election periods, and the election-period increase in discretionary transfers is more pronounced for non-swing states.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102811"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Media narratives and public attitudes toward immigrants and muslims: Evidence from the charlie hebdo attack","authors":"Mamadou Sacko","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of the Charlie Hebdo attack on public attitudes toward Muslims and immigrants in Europe. Using the Unexpected Event During Survey Design methodology, we exploit the random timing of interviews in the European Social Survey to estimate causal effects. Our empirical strategy combines an event study design with region fixed effects, various matching approaches, and advanced machine learning estimators.</div><div>We find a significant but short-lived decline in positive attitudes toward immigrants and Muslims, concentrated in the first week after the attack and fading quickly thereafter. Yet, responses varied across countries: while attitudes deteriorated in the Czech Republic and Ireland, they remained stable or even improved in France and Germany.</div><div>To contextualize these heterogeneous reactions, we analyze contemporaneous media coverage of the attack in the four countries. Using Natural Language Processing tools, large language models and structural topic modeling, we examine media salience and framing as an indirect measure of public sentiment. The evidence shows that in countries with predominantly negative coverage (Czech Republic, Ireland), public attitudes shifted unfavorably, whereas in France and Germany, where narratives were more balanced or supportive, attitudes were more resilient. These findings highlight how terrorist violence can shape public opinion in the short run, while also highlighting the importance of media narratives as a mirror and amplifier of societal reactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102812"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Cepaluni , Jamil Civitarese , Michael T. Dorsch
{"title":"Land invasions and contemporary slavery","authors":"Gabriel Cepaluni , Jamil Civitarese , Michael T. Dorsch","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do landless social movements reduce labor coercion? We examine this question using a panel dataset on contemporary slavery and land invasions in Brazil from 1995 to 2013. On average, a single land invasion reduces the number of enslaved workers by 15–20% in a municipality-year. To ground the empirics, we develop a formal model of how invasions alter landowners’ incentives to employ coerced labor. We further show that invasions do not increase the likelihood of government audits, indicating that their impact works directly through liberation and deterrence rather than expanded enforcement. The effect is strongest in Brazil’s Northeast, a large, poor, and rural region. These findings demonstrate how civil society action can complement weak state capacity in enforcing basic labor rights.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102807"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decomposing migration drivers: Push-pull effects of political, financial, and socioeconomic institutions versus network effects in OECD migration","authors":"Yun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the relative importance of key migration drivers and examines how institutional quality influences migration rates using a classical migration model and data from OECD countries over the period 1985–2015. Within a fixed-effects framework, we develop a novel analytical framework using comprehensive institutional quality indices constructed from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) to capture both pushing and pulling effects. Our variance decomposition analysis reveals that network effects account for 43.73% of the total explained variance in general migration inflows, but only 11.29% for inflow workers and 2.35% for foreign students changing status. Pushing and pulling effects contribute 23.02% and 16.49%, respectively, to general migration inflows, while for inflow workers, pushing effects dominate, explaining 34.96% compared to 18.78% for pulling effects. Among foreign students changing status, these effects are more balanced, contributing 30.52% and 30.05%, respectively. A deeper analysis of institutional qualities shows that political quality dominates both pushing and pulling effects across most specifications, except for foreign students changing status, where 46.67% of the pulling-effects variance is explained by socioeconomic factors, compared to 40.68% for political factors. Additionally, geographical distance is the most significant factor in bilateral migration costs, contributing over 75% across all specifications. These findings help policymakers better understand the complex roles of networks, institutional qualities, migration costs, etc. in shaping migration patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102810"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Redistributive promises, transfers to special interests, and the political economy of reform with limited state capacity","authors":"Sanjay Jain , Sumon Majumdar","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An enduring question in political economy is why ‘potentially Pareto-improving’ economic reforms are often so politically difficult to adopt. One explanation might be that reform typically entails the creation of losers as well as winners. Hence, redistributive compensation from winners to losers is key, even when the limited state capacity of the government constrains its ability to implement tax-and-transfer policies. This paper examines, more specifically, how the presence of special interest groups on the one hand, and limited taxation capacity on the part of the state on the other, might affect the implementation of redistributive policies, and hence political support for reform. Voters recognize that the government, in compensating losers, has an incentive to misuse this redistributive mechanism to disproportionately steer compensation towards its supporters, or to other special interest groups. Hence, efficiency-enhancing reforms might not win popular support, especially in countries with low state capacity, where the need for reforms is often likely to be the most.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102751"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reprint of: Presidential versus parliamentary: Political system and stock market volatility","authors":"Yosef Bonaparte","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We utilize panel data from 60 countries to analyze whether the political system -presidential versus parliamentary-impacts stock market volatility. Our findings show that presidential systems exhibit lower volatility compared to parliamentary systems. We identify two main factors underlying this result: political stability and coalition dependence. Specifically, presidential systems demonstrate greater political stability and less coalition dependence, which contribute to reduced stock market volatility. Additionally, we show that the lower stock market volatility in presidential systems does not come at the cost of stock market performance. In fact, some evidence suggests that presidential systems positively enhance stock market performance. Our results are statistically significant and robust, accounting for subsamples and employing various specifications and econometric models, including a global portfolio that establishes each country's Beta. Collectively, our study highlights the significant role of political systems in the study of law and finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102729"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corruption and reforms: Are liberal democracies different?","authors":"Jeffry Jacob , Thomas Osang , Luigi Manzetti","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102743","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102743","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study we examine the impact on corruption of economic reforms, international linkages, and the interaction of past reforms with current international flows for a large group of countries over a period of more than three decades within a dynamic panel data framework. We consider two economic reforms (greater trade and financial openness) and their corresponding international linkages (international trade and foreign direct investment intensities). Among the reform and intensity measures, only the FDI inflow intensity indicator appears to have a direct, negative effect on corruption. However, past trade and financial reforms interacted with subsequent levels of foreign investment and trade reduce corruption, particularly in liberal democracies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102743"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giuseppe Di Liddo , Michele G. Giuranno , Andrea Morone
{"title":"Strategic voting on tax policy: Direct vs representative democracy in the laboratory","authors":"Giuseppe Di Liddo , Michele G. Giuranno , Andrea Morone","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to distinctly demonstrate the prevalence and impact of strategic voting within representative democratic systems as compared to direct democracy, focusing on tax policy decisions. Through a comparative analysis, we explore how the structure of the voting system influences the strategic behaviour of voters concerning their taxable income. Our findings indicate that representative democracy inherently encourages strategic voting more than direct democracy, primarily due to the delegation process and its interaction with local median voters. This study meticulously analyses how pivotal voters in both the wealthiest and poorest electoral districts demonstrate notable sincerity in their voting behaviour, contrasting sharply with the strategic tendencies of the “median of the medians.” Additionally, we observe that higher income tax rates significantly enhance resources available for redistribution, thus intensifying incentives for strategic voting. Conversely, greater benefits from public expenditures promote sincerity among voters. Furthermore, both electoral systems align with Meltzer and Richard's (1981) predictions. By highlighting these dynamics, our paper contributes to a better understanding of the implications of democratic structures on voter behaviour and fiscal policy outcomes, underscoring the critical influence of voting systems on strategic decision-making in taxation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102661"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Electoral corruption cycles: Separating perceptions and experiences across households and experts","authors":"Lamar Crombach","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing research established that experts perceive corruption as more severe during democratic elections. This study exploits a novel decomposable corruption index in a panel of 45 democracies between 2004–2020 to assess whether this also holds for <em>household</em> perceptions <em>and</em> experiences. The results show that elections are unrelated to household corruption experiences, challenging the notion of electoral experience corruption cycles. As with experts, household corruption perceptions are affected by elections, yet households perceive <em>less</em> corruption. These findings highlight the need to distinguish between household and expert perceptions as well as between perceptions and experiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"92 ","pages":"Article 102675"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}