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Wealth distribution and redistributive preferences: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment 财富分配和再分配偏好：来自随机调查实验的证据
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102741
Nicolás Albacete, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner
{"title":"Wealth distribution and redistributive preferences: Evidence from a randomized survey experiment","authors":"Nicolás Albacete,&nbsp;Pirmin Fessler,&nbsp;Peter Lindner","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102741","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102741","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze a large-scale experiment on redistributive preferences using data from the Austrian segment of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Austria, characterized by low wealth taxation but high wealth inequality, provides an ideal context. We estimate the causal effect of information about one’s wealth rank on preferences for wealth taxation. While the average treatment effect is statistically insignificant, individuals who overestimate their wealth position exhibit a positive response, whereas those who underestimate it show a negative response. The impact of information varies based on prior beliefs, yet the overall effect remains null.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102741"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of international sanctions on the size of the middle class in Iran 国际制裁对伊朗中产阶级规模的影响
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan , Nader Habibi
{"title":"The effect of international sanctions on the size of the middle class in Iran","authors":"Mohammad Reza Farzanegan ,&nbsp;Nader Habibi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of international economic sanctions, imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program, on the development of its middle class. Specifically, it investigates how Iran's middle class would have evolved absent sanctions post-2012. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) with nested optimization, we construct a counterfactual scenario for Iran based on a weighted average of comparable countries that mirror pre-2012 Iran but without significant sanctions. Our SCM results indicate that sanctions led to an average annual reduction of 17 percentage points in the size of Iran's middle class from 2012 to 2019. Our Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) analysis, however, provides a more conservative estimate of a 12 percentage points average annual loss, reinforcing the robustness of the findings. These estimates capture the total effect of sanctions, encompassing both their direct economic shocks, and Iran's policy responses. These results are validated through extensive sensitivity checks, including in-space and in-time placebo tests, leave-one-out analyses, and bias-corrected SCM. We also identify real GDP per capita, merchandise imports and exports, investment, industry value added, informal and vulnerable employment as key channels through which sanctions negatively impact the middle class.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102749"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144989979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population aging, voting, and political agendas 人口老龄化、投票和政治议程
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102748
Francesco Barilari , Nicola Mastrorocco , Matteo Paradisi
{"title":"Population aging, voting, and political agendas","authors":"Francesco Barilari ,&nbsp;Nicola Mastrorocco ,&nbsp;Matteo Paradisi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how population aging interacts with voters’ representation, engagement with politics, and the content of political agendas. Leveraging the European Social Survey, we observe that over the past two decades, individuals under the age of 50 have become a minority within the voter population. This shift has been exacerbated by a decline in the turnout propensity of those under 50, juxtaposed with an increase among older age groups. The evolution of turnout propensity has unfolded gradually across cohorts: each successive cohort entering the eligible voter population has exhibited lower turnout rates compared to its predecessors and has failed to converge to previous levels throughout its lifecycle. The disengagement of younger workers has been more pronounced in countries that have aged faster. Moreover, these dynamics have coincided with a shift in the political agenda. Through an analysis of political manifestos, we demonstrate a switch towards topics appealing to older voters, notably retirement policies. Similarly to the case of turnout, this shift has been stronger in countries where the population has aged more.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102748"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa 抗议的动力：了解非洲的暴力和非暴力抗议
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745
Marcela Gomez-Ruiz , Paolo Li Donni , Maria Marino
{"title":"Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa","authors":"Marcela Gomez-Ruiz ,&nbsp;Paolo Li Donni ,&nbsp;Maria Marino","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102745"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145106344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A dictator’s retort to economic sanctions: Evidence from North Korea 独裁者对经济制裁的反驳：来自朝鲜的证据
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102732
Youngseok Park
{"title":"A dictator’s retort to economic sanctions: Evidence from North Korea","authors":"Youngseok Park","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how economic sanctions affect internal resource allocation in North Korea. Drawing on insights from the political economy of authoritarian regimes, I propose that as sanctions intensify, the regime reallocates resources to maintain elite loyalty at the expense of weapons development. Using satellite-based nighttime lights data as a proxy for regional economic activity, I find that sanctions increase light intensity in elite-dominated areas like Pyongyang, while brightness declines around nuclear facilities. These findings suggest that sanctions may unintentionally reinforce regime stability by redirecting resources toward the ruling elite.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102732"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Make it burn? Wildfires, disaster aid and presidential approval 让它燃烧？野火、灾难援助和总统批准
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738
Michael Berlemann , Marina Eurich , Timur Eckmann
{"title":"Make it burn? Wildfires, disaster aid and presidential approval","authors":"Michael Berlemann ,&nbsp;Marina Eurich ,&nbsp;Timur Eckmann","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For governments, the occurrence of natural disasters creates the opportunity to demonstrate their willingness and competence in providing prompt and efficient disaster aid. A number of studies has investigated the political consequences of providing disaster aid by analyzing the effects of such aid on subsequent election results. However, the findings of these studies have not yielded a coherent picture. This paper makes a contribution to the existing literature by employing high-frequency (daily) survey data on presidential approval. The combination of this data with wildfire data and information on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid approvals and denials reveals that Barack Obama gained in support among survey respondents for whom FEMA aid was approved by the president, while he was not punished for denials of FEMA assistance. We show that this effect is exclusively driven by respondents without party affiliation and that the effect is temporary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102738"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Approval vs. participation quorums 批准与参与法定人数
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102747
Dmitriy Vorobyev , Azamat Valei , Andrei Matveenko
{"title":"Approval vs. participation quorums","authors":"Dmitriy Vorobyev ,&nbsp;Azamat Valei ,&nbsp;Andrei Matveenko","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a pivotal costly voting model, we analyze how participation and approval quorum requirements, applied separately or jointly, affect turnout, election outcomes, and welfare. To characterize an optimal quorum rule, we first show that equally strict participation and approval quorums often yield similar outcomes, unless the two settings result in equilibria that differ in terms of whether voters can coordinate on participation. Second, any combination of quorum types can be replaced by either an approval or participation quorum alone, with negligible or no impact on equilibrium. Using these results, we suggest that to maximize turnout, no quorum is optimal unless low status quo support is expected, in which case a strict approval quorum is preferred. To increase the status quo’s chances of winning, a strict approval quorum or no quorum works best. From a voter welfare perspective, an approval quorum near half the electorate or no quorum at all are reasonable choices. These results hold whether we use Bayesian Nash equilibrium or quantal response equilibrium as the solution concept.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102747"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine 鹰派和鸽派：金融市场对西方支持乌克兰的看法
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102744
Matthias Neuenkirch , Maria Repko , Enzo Weber
{"title":"Hawks and Doves: Financial market perception of Western support for Ukraine","authors":"Matthias Neuenkirch ,&nbsp;Maria Repko ,&nbsp;Enzo Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102744","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. We analyse how international financial markets perceived this news. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the early phase of the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a positive impact after the first weeks of the war when the Ukrainian position in the war improved, but a negative (or at least less positive) influence before. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived support as a risk of further escalation threatening business prospects in the first phase. However, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets after the change in perceptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102744"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical spillover: The Russia–Ukraine invasion and its effects on money market funds 地缘政治溢出：俄罗斯-乌克兰入侵及其对货币市场基金的影响
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102734
Vaibhav Keshav , Meghana Vaidya
{"title":"Geopolitical spillover: The Russia–Ukraine invasion and its effects on money market funds","authors":"Vaibhav Keshav ,&nbsp;Meghana Vaidya","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102734","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102734","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is the first to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the United States (US) Money Market Fund (MMF) industry. Using granular data, we observe a significant outflow of $22 billion in US Prime MMFs compared to government MMFs. This suggests a “flight for safety” among investors. We report no prime MMF asset outflows in the European MMFs. Our results are robust for various fund-level controls and multiple fixed effects. This study provides new insights into how geopolitical events, like the Russia–Ukraine conflict, affect capital markets. Finally, we discuss its implications for investors, policymakers, and regulators concerned about maintaining financial stability during geopolitical turmoil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102734"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Kicking the can down the road? A real-time data analysis of delayed fiscal consolidation 把问题拖到以后再说？延迟财政整顿的实时数据分析
IF 2.4 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102736
Bram Gootjes
{"title":"Kicking the can down the road? A real-time data analysis of delayed fiscal consolidation","authors":"Bram Gootjes","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do some countries act swiftly when confronted with fiscal unsustainability, while others delay action? This study investigates the inertia in correcting unsound fiscal policy within the European Union (EU) from 2002 to 2019, using real-time data drawn from annual policy reports of the European Commission (EC). The results show that, on average, EU countries take three years to formulate adjustment plans after their fiscal policies are marked as unsustainable by the EC. Key drivers of the timing of fiscal consolidation plans include the domestic output gap, elections, cabinet size, and the activation of an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). The analysis provides new evidence that the functioning of the EDP is heavily politicized: its influence tends to diminish during European election years, in countries with long-standing fiscal risks, in smaller EU countries, and where national governments lean more to the right relative to the European Parliament. Additional findings highlight that neglecting the need for fiscal consolidation may overlook key factors driving delays in such policies, potentially leading to misleading policy guidance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102736"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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