A dictator’s retort to economic sanctions: Evidence from North Korea

Abstract

This paper examines how economic sanctions affect internal resource allocation in North Korea. Drawing on insights from the political economy of authoritarian regimes, I propose that as sanctions intensify, the regime reallocates resources to maintain elite loyalty at the expense of weapons development. Using satellite-based nighttime lights data as a proxy for regional economic activity, I find that sanctions increase light intensity in elite-dominated areas like Pyongyang, while brightness declines around nuclear facilities. These findings suggest that sanctions may unintentionally reinforce regime stability by redirecting resources toward the ruling elite.