Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745

Marcela Gomez-Ruiz , Paolo Li Donni , Maria Marino

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

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抗议的动力：了解非洲的暴力和非暴力抗议

本研究引入了一种新的实证策略来分析非洲暴力和非暴力抗议（VP和NVP）的动态发生。该策略允许我们联合建模VP和NVP，同时考虑观察到的变量和未观察到的时变因素。在此过程中，我们对抗议的持续性（即一种抗议类型对同一类型抗议动态的影响）、两种抗议类型之间的交叉效应（即一种抗议类型对另一种抗议类型随时间的动态的影响）以及抗议决定因素提供了见解。我们的研究结果，基于社会冲突分析数据集（SCAD），揭示了VP和NVP的强持续性，过去的抗议与未来的抗议显着相关。此外，我们还表明，暴力和非暴力抗议活动是动态相互关联的，两者之间存在交叉效应。一些决定因素，如镇压，与反VP和反VP都相关，而其他决定因素，如教育和技术，只影响一种类型的抗议。最后，通过控制持久性，我们探讨了未观察到的时变因素如何影响非洲的抗议动态。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Political Economy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

106

期刊介绍： The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).