Population aging, voting, and political agendas

Abstract

We study how population aging interacts with voters’ representation, engagement with politics, and the content of political agendas. Leveraging the European Social Survey, we observe that over the past two decades, individuals under the age of 50 have become a minority within the voter population. This shift has been exacerbated by a decline in the turnout propensity of those under 50, juxtaposed with an increase among older age groups. The evolution of turnout propensity has unfolded gradually across cohorts: each successive cohort entering the eligible voter population has exhibited lower turnout rates compared to its predecessors and has failed to converge to previous levels throughout its lifecycle. The disengagement of younger workers has been more pronounced in countries that have aged faster. Moreover, these dynamics have coincided with a shift in the political agenda. Through an analysis of political manifestos, we demonstrate a switch towards topics appealing to older voters, notably retirement policies. Similarly to the case of turnout, this shift has been stronger in countries where the population has aged more.