投票泛滥：德国自然灾害引发的不同投票反应

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102694

K. Peren Arin , Kevin Devereux , Joel Methorst , Marcel Thum

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了选民层面对气候灾难反应的第一个证据——2021年德国灾难性的洪水，这是一个自然实验。以往投票历史的数据揭示了非单调的处理效应：洪水暴露使以前的非绿党选民投票给绿党的可能性增加了4到5个百分点，但减少了以前的绿党选民未来投票给绿党的可能性。跟踪迁移也揭示了异质性。洪水区外的迁出者反应更为强烈；将他们归入控制组——就像地理分组那样——会减弱治疗效果。这两个因素都合理化了过去的零效应或小效应的发现，强调了微观数据的重要性。

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Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany

We present the first evidence of voter-level responses to a climatic disaster — the catastrophic German flooding of 2021, which serves as a natural experiment. Data on previous voting history reveals non-monotonic treatment effects: flood exposure

i n c r e a s e d

the likelihood of voting for the Green Party by four to five percentage points among previous non-Green voters, but

d e c r e a s e d

future Green voting for previous Green voters. Tracking migration also reveals heterogeneity. Movers-out of flood zones responded more strongly; classifying them in the control group – as geographic panels do – attenuates the treatment effect. Both factors rationalize past findings of null or small effects, emphasizing the importance of microdata.

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来源期刊

European Journal of Political Economy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

106

期刊介绍： The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).