Mathematical Biosciences最新文献

{"title":"Comparing the long-term persistence of different Wolbachia strains after the release of bacteria-carrying mosquitoes","authors":"Jose L. Orozco-Gonzales ,&nbsp;Antone dos Santos Benedito ,&nbsp;Daiver Cardona-Salgado ,&nbsp;Claudia Pio Ferreira ,&nbsp;Helenice de Oliveira Florentino ,&nbsp;Lilian S. Sepulveda-Salcedo ,&nbsp;Olga Vasilieva","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper proposes a bidimensional modeling framework for <em>Wolbachia</em> invasion, assuming imperfect maternal transmission, incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility, and direct infection loss due to thermal stress. Our model adapts to various <em>Wolbachia</em> strains and retains all properties of higher-dimensional models. The conditions for the durable coexistence of <em>Wolbachia</em>-carrying and wild mosquitoes are expressed using the model’s parameters in a compact closed form. When the <em>Wolbachia</em> bacterium is locally established, the size of the remanent wild population can be assessed by a direct formula derived from the model. The model was tested for four <em>Wolbachia</em> strains undergoing laboratory and field trials to control mosquito-borne diseases: <em>w</em>Mel, <em>w</em>MelPop, <em>w</em>AlbB, and <em>w</em>Au. As all these bacterial strains affect the individual fitness of mosquito hosts differently and exhibit different levels of resistance to temperature variations, the model helped to conclude that: (1) the <em>w</em>Mel strain spreads faster in wild mosquito populations; (2) the <em>w</em>MelPop exhibits lower resilience but also guarantees the smallest size of the remanent wild population; (3) the <em>w</em>AlbB strain performs better at higher ambient temperatures than others; (4) the <em>w</em>Au strain is not sustainable and cannot persist in the wild mosquito population despite its resistance to high temperatures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424000506/pdfft?md5=317a5a779da236463b8899b3f45b6a21&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424000506-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140558275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A stochastic programming approach to the antibiotics time machine problem","authors":"Oğuz Mesüm,&nbsp;Ali Rana Atilgan,&nbsp;Burak Kocuk","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Antibiotics Time Machine is an important problem to understand antibiotic resistance and how it can be reversed. Mathematically, it can be modeled as follows: Consider a set of genotypes, each of which contain a set of mutated and unmutated genes. Suppose that a set of growth rate measurements of each genotype under a set of antibiotics is given. The transition probabilities of a ‘realization’ of a Markov chain associated with each arc under each antibiotic are computable via a predefined function given the growth rate realizations. The aim is to maximize the expected probability of reaching to the genotype with all unmutated genes given the initial genotype in a predetermined number of transitions, considering the following two sources of uncertainties: (i) the randomness in growth rates, (ii) the randomness in transition probabilities, which are functions of growth rates. We develop stochastic mixed-integer linear programming and dynamic programming approaches to solve static and dynamic versions of the Antibiotics Time Machine Problem under the aforementioned uncertainties. We adapt a Sample Average Approximation approach that exploits the special structure of the problem and provide accurate solutions that perform very well in an out-of-sample analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140547265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A probabilistic model of relapse in drug addiction","authors":"Sayun Mao ,&nbsp;Tom Chou ,&nbsp;Maria R. D’Orsogna","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>More than 60% of individuals recovering from substance use disorder relapse within one year. Some will resume drug consumption even after decades of abstinence. The cognitive and psychological mechanisms that lead to relapse are not completely understood, but stressful life experiences and external stimuli that are associated with past drug-taking are known to play a primary role. Stressors and cues elicit memories of drug-induced euphoria and the expectation of relief from current anxiety, igniting an intense craving to use again; positive experiences and supportive environments may mitigate relapse. We present a mathematical model of relapse in drug addiction that draws on known psychiatric concepts such as the “positive activation; negative activation” paradigm and the “peak-end” rule to construct a relapse rate that depends on external factors (intensity and timing of life events) and individual traits (mental responses to these events). We analyze which combinations and ordering of stressors, cues, and positive events lead to the largest relapse probability and propose interventions to minimize the likelihood of relapse. We find that the best protective factor is exposure to a mild, yet continuous, source of contentment, rather than large, episodic jolts of happiness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424000440/pdfft?md5=7a38c0b5946940398238fc06ce293c29&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424000440-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140539073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics and economic growth","authors":"Calistus N. Ngonghala ,&nbsp;Hope Enright ,&nbsp;Olivia Prosper ,&nbsp;Ruijun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity in many countries. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. It uncovers varied effects of malaria and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>) on both malaria and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. The study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in an equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even when <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations for effective malaria control from the study include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002555642400049X/pdfft?md5=6417494135d300b5333ad482ae0f16c2&pid=1-s2.0-S002555642400049X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140555407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A mathematical model to study low-dose metronomic scheduling for chemotherapy","authors":"Garhima Arora ,&nbsp;Nandadulal Bairagi ,&nbsp;Samrat Chatterjee","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Metronomic chemotherapy refers to the frequent administration of chemotherapeutic agents at a lower dose and presents an attractive alternative to conventional chemotherapy with encouraging response rates. However, the schedule of the therapy, including the dosage of the drug, is usually based on empiricism. The confounding effects of tumor-endothelial-immune interactions during metronomic administration of drugs have not yet been explored in detail, resulting in an incomplete assessment of drug dose and frequency evaluations. The present study aimed to gain a mechanistic understanding of different actions of metronomic chemotherapy using a mathematical model. We have established an analytical condition for determining the dosage and frequency of the drug depending on its clearance rate for complete tumor elimination. The model also brings forward the immune-mediated clearance of the tumor during the metronomic administration of the chemotherapeutic agent. The results from the global sensitivity analysis showed an increase in the sensitivity of drug and immune-mediated killing factors toward the tumor population during metronomic scheduling. Our results emphasize metronomic scheduling over the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and define a model-based approach for approximating the optimal schedule of drug administration to eliminate tumors while minimizing harm to the immune cells and the patient’s body.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140544047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The dynamics of casual groups can keep free-riders at bay","authors":"José F. Fontanari ,&nbsp;Mauro Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the conditions for maintaining cooperation in groups of unrelated individuals despite the presence of non-cooperative members is a major research topic in contemporary biological, sociological, and economic theory. The <span><math><mi>N</mi></math></span>-person snowdrift game models the type of social dilemma where cooperative actions are costly, but there is a reward for performing them. We study this game in a scenario where players move between play groups following the casual group dynamics, where groups grow by recruiting isolates and shrink by losing individuals who then become isolates. This describes the size distribution of spontaneous human groups and also the formation of sleeping groups in monkeys. We consider three scenarios according to the probability of isolates joining a group. We find that for appropriate choices of the cost-benefit ratio of cooperation and the aggregation–disaggregation ratio in the formation of casual groups, free-riders can be completely eliminated from the population. If individuals are more attracted to large groups, we find that cooperators persist in the population even when the mean group size diverges. We also point out the remarkable similarity between the replicator equation approach to public goods games and the trait group formulation of structured demes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140536689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mathematical model for IL-2-based cancer immunotherapy","authors":"Megan Dixon ,&nbsp;Tuan Anh Phan ,&nbsp;J.C. Dallon ,&nbsp;Jianjun Paul Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A basic mathematical model for IL-2-based cancer immunotherapy is proposed and studied. Our analysis shows that the outcome of therapy is mainly determined by three parameters, the relative death rate of CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells, the relative death rate of CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>8</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells, and the dose of IL-2 treatment. Minimal equilibrium tumor size can be reached with a large dose of IL-2 in the case that CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells die out. However, in cases where CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> and CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>8</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells persist, the final tumor size is independent of the IL-2 dose and is given by the relative death rate of CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells. Two groups of in silico clinical trials show some short-term behaviors of IL-2 treatment. IL-2 administration can slow the proliferation of CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>4</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells, while high doses for a short period of time over several days transiently increase the population of CD<span><math><msup><mrow><mn>8</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> T cells during treatment before it recedes to its equilibrium. IL-2 administration for a short period of time over many days suppresses the tumor population for a longer time before approaching its steady-state levels. This implies that intermittent administration of IL-2 may be a good strategy for controlling tumor size.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140536777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A stochastic model for neural progenitor dynamics in the mouse cerebral cortex","authors":"Frédérique Clément ,&nbsp;Jules Olayé","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We have designed a stochastic model of embryonic neurogenesis in the mouse cerebral cortex, using the formalism of compound Poisson processes. The model accounts for the dynamics of different progenitor cell types and neurons. The expectation and variance of the cell number of each type are derived analytically and illustrated through numerical simulations. The effects of stochastic transition rates between cell types, and stochastic duration of the cell division cycle have been investigated sequentially. The model does not only predict the number of neurons, but also their spatial distribution into deeper and upper cortical layers. The model outputs are consistent with experimental data providing the number of neurons and intermediate progenitors according to embryonic age in control and mutant situations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140338338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formation of vascular-like structures using a chemotaxis-driven multiphase model","authors":"Georgina al-Badri ,&nbsp;James B. Phillips ,&nbsp;Rebecca J. Shipley ,&nbsp;Nicholas C. Ovenden","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a continuum model for pattern formation, based on the multiphase model framework, to explore <em>in vitro</em> cell patterning within an extracellular matrix (ECM). We demonstrate that, within this framework, chemotaxis-driven cell migration can lead to the formation of cell clusters and vascular-like structures in 1D and 2D respectively. The influence on pattern formation of additional mechanisms commonly included in multiphase tissue models, including cell-matrix traction, contact inhibition, and cell–cell aggregation, are also investigated. Using sensitivity analysis, the relative impact of each model parameter on the simulation outcomes is assessed to identify the key parameters involved. Chemoattractant–matrix binding is further included, motivated by previous experimental studies, and found to reduce the spatial scale of patterning to within a biologically plausible range for capillary structures. Key findings from the in-depth parameter analysis of the 1D models, both with and without chemoattractant–matrix binding, are demonstrated to translate well to the 2D model, obtaining vascular-like cell patterning for multiple parameter regimes. Overall, we demonstrate a biologically-motivated multiphase model capable of generating long-term pattern formation on a biologically plausible spatial scale both in 1D and 2D, with applications for modelling <em>in vitro</em> vascular network formation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424000439/pdfft?md5=1d0428d2455ca3e54d8ab0ebd6b32ad1&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424000439-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140330464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area: Challenges of uncertainty and identifiability when fitting mechanistic models to time-varying processes","authors":"Praachi Das ,&nbsp;Morganne Igoe ,&nbsp;Alexanderia Lacy ,&nbsp;Trevor Farthing ,&nbsp;Archana Timsina ,&nbsp;Cristina Lanzas ,&nbsp;Suzanne Lenhart ,&nbsp;Agricola Odoi ,&nbsp;Alun L. Lloyd","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use a compartmental model with a time-varying transmission parameter to describe county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area of Missouri and investigate the challenges in fitting such a model to time-varying processes. We fit this model to synthetic and real confirmed case and hospital discharge data from May to December 2020 and calculate uncertainties in the resulting parameter estimates. We also explore non-identifiability within the estimated parameter set. We find that the death rate of infectious non-hospitalized individuals, the testing parameter and the initial number of exposed individuals are not identifiable based on an investigation of correlation coefficients between pairs of parameter estimates. We also explore how this non-identifiability ties back into uncertainties in the estimated parameters and find that it inflates uncertainty in the estimates of our time-varying transmission parameter. However, we do find that <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> is not highly affected by non-identifiability of its constituent components and the uncertainties associated with the quantity are smaller than those of the estimated parameters. Parameter values estimated from data will always be associated with some uncertainty and our work highlights the importance of conducting these analyses when fitting such models to real data. Exploring identifiability and uncertainty is crucial in revealing how much we can trust the parameter estimates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424000415/pdfft?md5=78dd5e205f58675ab71a389bf74a9740&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424000415-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140308421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}