Ecoepidemic modeling and dynamics of alveolar echinococcosis transmission

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109304

Xinmiao Rong , Meng Fan

{"title":"Ecoepidemic modeling and dynamics of alveolar echinococcosis transmission","authors":"Xinmiao Rong , Meng Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109304","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alveolar echinococcosis, transmitted between definitive hosts and intermediate hosts via predation, threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses in western China. In order to explore the transmission mechanism of this disease, an eco-epidemiological lifecycle model is formulated to illustrate interactions between two hosts. The basic and demographic reproduction numbers are developed to characterize the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria as well as bifurcation dynamics. The existence of forward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are confirmed and are used to explain the threshold transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations and bifurcation diagrams are also presented to depict rich dynamics of the model. Numerical analysis suggests that improving the control rate of voles will reduce the risk of transmission, while the high predation rate of foxes may also lead to a lower transmission risk, which is different from the predictions of previous studies. The evaluation of three control measures on voles implies that, when the fox’s predation rate is low (high), the chemical (integrated) control will be more effective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424001640","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Alveolar echinococcosis, transmitted between definitive hosts and intermediate hosts via predation, threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses in western China. In order to explore the transmission mechanism of this disease, an eco-epidemiological lifecycle model is formulated to illustrate interactions between two hosts. The basic and demographic reproduction numbers are developed to characterize the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria as well as bifurcation dynamics. The existence of forward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are confirmed and are used to explain the threshold transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations and bifurcation diagrams are also presented to depict rich dynamics of the model. Numerical analysis suggests that improving the control rate of voles will reduce the risk of transmission, while the high predation rate of foxes may also lead to a lower transmission risk, which is different from the predictions of previous studies. The evaluation of three control measures on voles implies that, when the fox’s predation rate is low (high), the chemical (integrated) control will be more effective.

查看原文本刊更多论文

肺泡棘球蚴病的生态流行模型和传播动态。

在中国西部，肺泡棘球蚴病通过捕食在终宿主和中间宿主之间传播，威胁人类健康并造成巨大经济损失。为了探索该病的传播机制，本文建立了一个生态流行病学生命周期模型，以说明两种宿主之间的相互作用。建立了基本繁殖数和人口繁殖数，以表征无病平衡和流行平衡的稳定性以及分叉动力学。证实了正向分岔和霍普夫分岔的存在，并用来解释阈值传播动力学。数值模拟和分岔图也用来描述模型的丰富动态。数值分析表明，提高田鼠的控制率将降低传播风险，而狐狸的高捕食率也可能导致传播风险降低，这与以往研究的预测不同。对田鼠三种控制措施的评估表明，当狐狸捕食率低（高）时，化学（综合）控制会更有效。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.