Mathematical Biosciences最新文献

Testing-isolation interventions will likely be insufficient to contain future novel disease outbreaks 检测隔离干预措施很可能不足以遏制未来新型疾病的爆发。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109432

Jeffery Demers , William F. Fagan , Sriya Potluri , Justin M. Calabrese

{"title":"Testing-isolation interventions will likely be insufficient to contain future novel disease outbreaks","authors":"Jeffery Demers , William F. Fagan , Sriya Potluri , Justin M. Calabrese","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals with diagnostic testing plays a critical role in combating invasions of novel human pathogens. Unfortunately, unprepared health agencies may struggle to meet the massive testing capacity demands imposed by an outbreaking novel pathogen, potentially resulting in a failure of epidemic containment as occurred with COVID-19. Despite the critical importance of understanding the likelihood of such an outcome, it remains unclear how the particular characteristics of a novel disease will impact the magnitude of resource constraints on controllability. Specifically, is the failure of testing-isolation unique to COVID-19, or is this a likely outcome across the spectrum of disease traits that may constitute future epidemics? Here, using a generalized mathematical model parameterized for seven different human diseases and variants, we show that testing-isolation strategies will typically fail to contain epidemic outbreaks at practicably achievable testing capacities. From this analysis, we identify three key disease characteristics that govern controllability under resource constraints; the basic reproduction number, mean latent period, and non-symptomatic transmission index. Interactions among these characteristics play prominent roles in both explaining controllability differences among diseases and enhancing the efficacy of testing-isolation in combination with transmission-reduction measures. This study provides broad guidelines for managing controllability expectations during future novel disease invasions, describing which classes of diseases are most amenable to testing-isolation strategies alone and which will necessitate additional transmission-reduction measures like social distancing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"384 ","pages":"Article 109432"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143756729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characterizing symmetry transitions in systems with dynamic morphology

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109431

Maria-Veronica Ciocanel , Punit Gandhi , Karl Niklas , Adriana T. Dawes

{"title":"Characterizing symmetry transitions in systems with dynamic morphology","authors":"Maria-Veronica Ciocanel , Punit Gandhi , Karl Niklas , Adriana T. Dawes","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accurate quantification of symmetry is a key goal in biological inquiries because symmetry can affect biological performance and can reveal insights into development and evolutionary history. Recently, we proposed a versatile measure of symmetry, transformation information (<span><math><mi>TI</mi></math></span>), which provides an entropy-based measure of deviations from exact symmetry with respect to a parameterized family of transformations. Here we develop this measure further to quantify approximate symmetries and maximal symmetries represented by critical points in <span><math><mi>TI</mi></math></span> as a function of a transformation parameter. This framework allows us to characterize the evolution of symmetry by tracking qualitative changes with respect to these critical points. We apply <span><math><mi>TI</mi></math></span> to increasingly complex settings, from mathematically tractable probability distributions to differential equation models with emergent behaviors that are inspired by developmental biology and formulated in both static and growing domains. Our analysis of the qualitative changes in symmetry properties indicates a potential pathway toward a general mathematical framework for characterizing symmetry transitions akin to bifurcation theory for dynamical systems. The results reveal deep connections between observed symmetry transitions, subtle changes in morphology, and the underlying mechanisms that govern the dynamics of the system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"384 ","pages":"Article 109431"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143756705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing time activity curves from spatio-temporal tracer data to determine tracer transport velocity in plants 分析时空示踪剂数据的时间活动曲线，确定植物体内的示踪剂迁移速度。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109430

Hannah Lanzrath , Eric von Lieres , Ralf Metzner , Gregor Huber

{"title":"Analyzing time activity curves from spatio-temporal tracer data to determine tracer transport velocity in plants","authors":"Hannah Lanzrath , Eric von Lieres , Ralf Metzner , Gregor Huber","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Non-invasive methods utilizing tracers have a great potential to investigate carbon allocation in plants. Specifically, radioactive tracers, such as <span><math><mrow><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>11</mn></mrow></msup><mtext>C</mtext></mrow></math></span>, enable the monitoring of spatially localized transport processes on short time scales in living plants. Typically, such tracer transport experiments yield time activity curves (TACs) of tracer activity over time at various locations along a transport pathway. These TACs can exhibit different characteristic shapes that strongly depend on tracer transport dynamics, reflecting properties such as transport velocity, exchange with surrounding tissue, and tracer storage along the pathway. Various methods, either data-driven or model-based, exist to determine transport velocities from TACs. However, for some TAC shapes, the inferred carbon tracer velocity values can be inconsistent and greatly vary between analysis methods. In the present study, we review and evaluate different analysis methods for their suitability to reliably determine tracer transport velocities from typical TAC shapes. For this evaluation, we use both <em>in silico</em> generated and experimentally acquired TACs from positron emission tomography measurements on tomato, barley, and bean. We demonstrate that each of the compared methods can be suitable for specific TAC shapes while being less or not appropriate for others. In conclusion, we present a case-specific evaluation of methods as a reference for analyzing TACs from tracer transport experiments, which allows to ensure a robust and globally comparable determination of transport velocities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109430"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143674702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Random evolutionary dynamics in predator–prey systems yields large, clustered ecosystems

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109417

Christian H.S. Hamster , Jorik Schaap , Peter van Heijster , Joshua A. Dijksman

引用次数: 0

Epidemic spreading on biological evolution networks

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109416

Zhong-Pan Cao, Jin-Xuan Yang, Ying Tan

引用次数: 0

The effects of tritiated water on competitive outcomes of two Daphnia species in lakes: A reaction–diffusion tritium-taxis model

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109420

Xiaoshuang Li , Hua Nie , Xiao Yan

{"title":"The effects of tritiated water on competitive outcomes of two Daphnia species in lakes: A reaction–diffusion tritium-taxis model","authors":"Xiaoshuang Li , Hua Nie , Xiao Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The discharge of nuclear-contaminated water, particularly tritiated water (HTO), poses a significant global environmental challenge due to its potential negative impacts on ecosystems. To examine how such discharges influence the competitive dynamics between two Daphnia species in lake environments, we develop a spatiotemporal competition model that incorporates a tritium-taxis term. Our findings indicate that a moderate HTO input rate, combined with varying radiosensitivity between the species, can reverse the competitive outcomes between the two species. Specifically, species with lower radiosensitivity to HTO may compensate for competitive disadvantages, potentially enhancing biodiversity, or conversely, gain a competitive edge, which could reduce biodiversity. Moreover, a low HTO removal rate can lead to bistability or tristability in the system, while strong tritium-taxis promotes the development of spatially heterogeneous patterns. This study underscores the importance of considering the indirect effects of moderate HTO input and species-specific radiosensitivity, which can result in counterintuitive ecological dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109420"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143598670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Role of non-exponential reversal times in aggregation models of bacterial populations

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109418

Michael Batista , Patrick Murphy , Oleg A. Igoshin , Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev

{"title":"Role of non-exponential reversal times in aggregation models of bacterial populations","authors":"Michael Batista , Patrick Murphy , Oleg A. Igoshin , Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Individual bacteria typically follow somewhat simple rules of motion, but collective behavior can exhibit complex behavioral patterns. For instance, the formation and dispersal of aggregates of reversing bacteria in biofilms are primarily driven by coordinated motion among cells. Many mathematical models of aggregation assume that cells have no memory, e.g., the time between their behavior changes, such as direction reversals, is exponentially distributed. However, in practice, the distribution is quite distinct from exponential. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze numerically the importance of non-exponential reversal times in 1D agent-based and kinetic models of aggregation. In particular, we consider these models in a practical parameter regime by fitting a Gamma distribution to represent the run times of myxobacteria and study their collective behavior with exponential and non-exponential reversal times. We demonstrate that non-exponential reversal times aid aggregation and result in tighter aggregates. We compare and contrast the behavior of agent-based and kinetic models that consider aggregation driven by chemotaxis. Thus, incorporating non-exponential reversal times into models of aggregation can be particularly important for reproducing experimental data, such as aggregate persistence and dispersal. These results provide a simple example of how the existence of memory helps bacteria coordinate their behaviors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109418"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143588891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mechanistic models are hypotheses: A perspective

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109419

John W Glasser , Zhilan Feng

引用次数: 0

A mathematical modeling study of the effectiveness of contact tracing in reducing the spread of infectious diseases with incubation period 关于接触追踪在减少有潜伏期的传染病传播方面的有效性的数学模型研究。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109415

Mohamed Ladib , Cameron J. Browne , Hayriye Gulbudak , Aziz Ouhinou

{"title":"A mathematical modeling study of the effectiveness of contact tracing in reducing the spread of infectious diseases with incubation period","authors":"Mohamed Ladib , Cameron J. Browne , Hayriye Gulbudak , Aziz Ouhinou","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we study an epidemic model with demography that incorporates some key aspects of the contact tracing intervention. We derive generic formulae for the effective reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> when contact tracing is employed to mitigate the spread of infection. The derived expressions are reformulated in terms of the initial reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> (in the absence of tracing), the number of traced cases caused by a primary untraced reported index case, and the average number of secondary cases infected by traced infectees during their infectious period. In parallel, under some restrictions, the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The model was fitted to data of Ebola disease collected during the 2014–2016 outbreaks in West Africa. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to investigate the effect of key parameters on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>. By considering ongoing interventions, the simulations indicate whether contact tracing can suppress <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> below unity, as well as identify parameter regions where it can effectively contain epidemic outbreaks when applied with a given level of efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109415"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143532276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for the modelling and the analysis of epidemiological spread in commuting populations

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109403

Pierre-Alexandre Bliman , Boureima Sangaré , Assane Savadogo

引用次数: 0