Mathematical Biosciences最新文献_第10页

Estimation of time-varying recovery and death rates from epidemiological data: A new approach 从流行病学数据估计时变的恢复率和死亡率：一种新方法。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109479

Samiran Ghosh , Malay Banerjee , Subhra Sankar Dhar , Siuli Mukhopadhyay

{"title":"Estimation of time-varying recovery and death rates from epidemiological data: A new approach","authors":"Samiran Ghosh , Malay Banerjee , Subhra Sankar Dhar , Siuli Mukhopadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The time-to-recovery or time-to-death for various infectious diseases can vary significantly among individuals, influenced by several factors such as demographic differences, immune strength, medical history, age, pre-existing conditions, and infection severity. To capture these variations, time-since-infection dependent recovery and death rates offer a detailed description of the epidemic. However, obtaining individual-level data to estimate these rates is challenging, while aggregate epidemiological data (such as the number of new infections, number of active cases, number of new recoveries, and number of new deaths) are more readily available. In this article, a new methodology is proposed to estimate time-since-infection dependent recovery and death rates using easily available data sources, accommodating irregular data collection timings reflective of real-world reporting practices. The Nadaraya–Watson estimator is utilized to derive the number of new infections. This model improves the accuracy of epidemic progression descriptions and provides clear insights into recovery and death distributions. The proposed methodology is validated using COVID-19 data and its general applicability is demonstrated by applying it to some other diseases like measles and typhoid.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109479"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144277096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the influence of HIV on the spread of Mpox disease 评估艾滋病毒对痘病传播的影响

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109499

Arsène Jaurès Ouemba Tassé , Yibetal Terefe , Jean Lubuma

{"title":"Assessing the influence of HIV on the spread of Mpox disease","authors":"Arsène Jaurès Ouemba Tassé , Yibetal Terefe , Jean Lubuma","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mpox, originating primarily in African rodents, has led to human outbreaks over recent years. This study presents a mathematical model for Mpox, distinguishing between individuals with and without HIV who are susceptible. We explore scenarios involving both rodent-to-human transmission and those without it. In the absence of this transmission route, the model undergoes a backward bifurcation, suggesting that reducing the basic reproduction number below one would not eliminate the disease unless further control strategies are used. With the account of rodent-to-human transmission, if Mpox is endemic in the rodent population, a unique interior equilibrium, globally asymptotically stable, exists, requiring targeted interventions like quarantine or vaccination for people with HIV (PWH) for disease control. Model validation using USA case data (May 2022–July 2024) shows that both human-to-human and rodent-to-human transmissions prevail in the population, but the disease is not endemic. Projections indicate that the outbreak will be overcome by May 2027, with a total of 35,811 cases. We design a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme which is dynamically consistent with respect to the qualitative properties of the continuous model. Numerical simulations demonstrate that reducing the recruitment rate of PWH is essential, and rodent-to-human transmission is identified as highly influential in increasing the number of Mpox cases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109499"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Patient-specific prediction of glioblastoma growth via reduced order modeling and neural networks 通过降阶模型和神经网络对胶质母细胞瘤生长的患者特异性预测

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109468

D. Cerrone , D. Riccobelli , S. Gazzoni , P. Vitullo , F. Ballarin , J. Falco , F. Acerbi , A. Manzoni , P. Zunino , P. Ciarletta

{"title":"Patient-specific prediction of glioblastoma growth via reduced order modeling and neural networks","authors":"D. Cerrone , D. Riccobelli , S. Gazzoni , P. Vitullo , F. Ballarin , J. Falco , F. Acerbi , A. Manzoni , P. Zunino , P. Ciarletta","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glioblastoma is among the most aggressive brain tumors in adults, characterized by patient-specific invasion patterns driven by the underlying brain microstructure. In this work, we present a proof-of-concept for a mathematical model of GBL growth, enabling real-time prediction and patient-specific parameter identification from longitudinal neuroimaging data.</div><div>The framework exploits a diffuse-interface mathematical model to describe the tumor evolution and a reduced-order modeling strategy, relying on proper orthogonal decomposition, trained on synthetic data derived from patient-specific brain anatomies reconstructed from magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging. A neural network surrogate learns the inverse mapping from tumor evolution to model parameters, achieving significant computational speed-up while preserving high accuracy.</div><div>To ensure robustness and interpretability, we perform both global and local sensitivity analyses, identifying the key biophysical parameters governing tumor dynamics and assessing the stability of the inverse problem solution. These results establish a methodological foundation for future clinical deployment of patient-specific digital twins in neuro-oncology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109468"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144223529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bifurcation analysis of tumor-immune dynamics under the dual Allee effects 双Allee效应下肿瘤免疫动力学的分岔分析。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109483

Eymard Hernandez-Lopez, Xiunan Wang

引用次数: 0

Pattern dynamics analysis and parameter identification of spatiotemporal infectious disease models on complex networks 复杂网络时空传染病模型的模式动力学分析与参数辨识

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109502

Tao Yang , Linhe Zhu , Shuling Shen , Le He

{"title":"Pattern dynamics analysis and parameter identification of spatiotemporal infectious disease models on complex networks","authors":"Tao Yang , Linhe Zhu , Shuling Shen , Le He","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper primarily explores the dynamics of reaction–diffusion systems with advection effects on discrete networks and establishes a corresponding infectious disease transmission model incorporating delay effects. Initially, we consider the conditions for the existence of the equilibrium point and linearly approximate the time delay near this equilibrium point. Then we discuss the necessary conditions for Turing instability under various constraints based on the approximate system. We also introduce two types of lower-order network structures. In one of these lower-order networks, we discuss the directional movement of two different populations. To further analyze the dynamic behavior on different networks, we construct a special higher-order network based on another lower-order network. In addition, we use optimal control to solve the problem of parameter identification. We conduct extensive numerical simulations to study the impact of advection effects and higher-order networks on system dynamics, pattern parameter identification under unknown conditions, and model fitting and prediction based on actual data, which validate the model’s effectiveness and practical utility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109502"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144653250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic properties of Lotka–Volterra systems corresponding to the colonization model Lotka-Volterra系统对应殖民化模型的动态特性。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109500

Atsushi Yamauchi

{"title":"Dynamic properties of Lotka–Volterra systems corresponding to the colonization model","authors":"Atsushi Yamauchi","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The colonization model, also known as the Levins model, has been developed to understand the mechanisms that drive species coexistence under interspecific competition. Previous simulation studies have shown that the dynamic properties of the model significantly depend on the encounter mode between propagules and colonization sites. Perfect mass action encounters result in convergence towards equilibrium, while perfect ratio-dependent encounters lead to multiple continuously transient trajectories that depend on the initial condition. In the present study, I investigate the properties of the dynamics by transforming the colonization model into a Lotka-Volterra model. I show that the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix indicate stability of the equilibrium under perfect mass action encounters, while the Lyapunov function shows the existence of an infinite number of continuously transient trajectories under perfect ratio-dependent encounters. These results highlight new properties of Lotka-Volterra systems and the colonization model, and provide new insights into the mechanisms and dynamic processes involved in the coexistence of multiple species.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109500"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144478348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mathematical study of the spread and blocking in inflammatory bowel disease 炎症性肠病扩散和阻塞的数学研究。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109481

Saoussen Latrach , Eric Ogier-Denis , Nicolas Vauchelet , Hatem Zaag

引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of the Wolbachia-based control of malaria 评估基于沃尔巴克氏体的疟疾控制的影响。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109466

Zhuolin Qu , Lauren M. Childs

{"title":"Assessing the impact of the Wolbachia-based control of malaria","authors":"Zhuolin Qu , Lauren M. Childs","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Malaria remains a significant infectious disease globally, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Traditional control methods, such as disease surveillance and mosquito control, along with the development of malaria vaccines, have made strides in reducing the disease’s impact, but new control methods are urgently needed. <em>Wolbachia</em> is a natural bacterium that can infect mosquitoes and reduce their ability to transmit diseases. While initially used to control dengue fever, recent research explored its potential for malaria control. In this study, we develop and analyze a novel mathematical model to assess the potential use of <em>Wolbachia</em>-based strategies for malaria control. The model describes the complex <em>Wolbachia</em> transmission dynamics among mosquitoes and incorporates key features of malaria transmission in humans with dynamical immunity feedback. We derive the basic reproduction number of the malaria disease transmission, which depends on the prevalence of <em>Wolbachia</em> in mosquitoes. Our findings reveal bifurcations in both <em>Wolbachia</em> transmission among mosquitoes and malaria transmission in humans, suggesting the potential for malaria elimination through <em>Wolbachia</em>-based interventions. The sensitivity analysis identifies the important parameters for the basic reproduction number and for malaria reduction and elimination. We numerically explore the integration of <em>Wolbachia</em> and other malaria controls. When control focuses on reducing the malaria burden in humans, there is a substantial rebound in malaria prevalence following the intervention in humans, and our results suggest post-<em>Wolbachia</em> malaria control leads to the greatest reduction in total days of infection. When <em>Wolbachia</em> release is integrated with pre-release mosquito control, there is a comparably large reduction in total days of infection if pre-release mosquito control occurs only a few days before <em>Wolbachia</em> release.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109466"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144562489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling the impact of organic molecules and phosphate ions on biosilica pattern formation in diatoms 模拟有机分子和磷酸盐离子对硅藻中生物二氧化硅图案形成的影响。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109484

Svetlana Petrenko, Karen M. Page

{"title":"Modelling the impact of organic molecules and phosphate ions on biosilica pattern formation in diatoms","authors":"Svetlana Petrenko, Karen M. Page","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid and complex patterning of biosilica in diatom frustules is of great interest in nanotechnology, although it remains incompletely understood. Specific organic molecules, including long-chain polyamines, silaffins and silacidins, are essential in this process. The molecular structure of synthesized polyamines significantly affects the quantity, size and shape of silica precipitates. Experimental findings show that silica precipitation occurs at specific phosphate ion concentrations. We focus on the hypothesis that pattern formation in diatom valve structures is driven by the phase separation of species-specific organic molecules. The resulting organic structures serve as templates for silica precipitation. We investigate the role of phosphate ions in the self-assembly of these organic molecules and analyse how the reaction between them affects the morphology of the organic template. Using mathematical and computational techniques, we gain an understanding of the range of patterns that can arise in a phase-separating system. By varying the rate of dissociation and the initial concentrations of the reacting components we demonstrate that the resulting geometric features are highly dependent on these factors. This approach provides insights into the parameters controlling patterning. Additionally, we consider the effects of prepatterns, mimicking silica ribs that preexist the pores, on the final patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"387 ","pages":"Article 109484"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144628368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of bovine tuberculosis transmission in mixed herds in Chad 乍得混合畜群中牛结核病传播动态

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109503

H. Djimramadji , Julien Arino , P.M. Tchepmo Djomegni , M.S. Daoussa Haggar

引用次数: 0