Mathematical Biosciences最新文献_第10页

Classification of 3-node restricted excitatory–inhibitory networks 3节点限制性兴奋-抑制网络的分类。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109372

Manuela Aguiar , Ana Dias , Ian Stewart

引用次数: 0

Infection-induced host extinction: Deterministic and stochastic models for environmentally transmitted pathogens 感染诱导的宿主灭绝：环境传播病原体的确定性和随机模型。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109374

Bei Sun , Daozhou Gao , Xueying Wang , Yijun Lou

{"title":"Infection-induced host extinction: Deterministic and stochastic models for environmentally transmitted pathogens","authors":"Bei Sun , Daozhou Gao , Xueying Wang , Yijun Lou","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amphibian decline and extinction have been observed on a global scale, highlighting the urgency of identifying the underlying factors. This issue has long been recognized as a critical concern in conservation ecology and continues to receive significant attention. Pathogen infection, in particular the chytrid fungus <em>Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis</em>, is postulated as a key factor contributing to the decline of certain species within specific regions. In this paper, we focus on identifying the pathogen characteristics that can drive host species extinction. Both deterministic and stochastic modeling frameworks based on a susceptible-infectious-pathogen epidemic model are proposed, to assess the influence of pathogen infection on species decline and extinction. Various indices, including the reproduction numbers of the host species, the replication of the pathogen, and the transmission of the pathogen are derived. Theoretical analysis includes the stability of equilibria, the extinction and persistence of host species in the deterministic model, and the evaluation of extinction probability and average extinction time in the stochastic model. Additionally, numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of various factors on host decline and extinction, as well as the probabilities of extinction. We find two crucial conditions for a pathogen to drive host extinction: (i) the pathogen’s self-reproduction capacity in the environment, and (ii) the pathogen’s impact on the fecundity and survival of the infected host. These findings provide insights that could aid in the design and implementation of effective conservation strategies for amphibians.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109374"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143019034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A simultaneous simulation of human behavior dynamics and epidemic spread: A multi-country study amidst the COVID-19 pandemic 人类行为动态与流行病传播的同步模拟：COVID-19 大流行中的多国研究》。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109368

Ann Osi, Navid Ghaffarzadegan

{"title":"A simultaneous simulation of human behavior dynamics and epidemic spread: A multi-country study amidst the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Ann Osi, Navid Ghaffarzadegan","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and human responses are intertwined, forming complex feedback loops. However, many epidemic models fail to endogenously represent human behavior change. In this study, we introduce a novel behavioral epidemic model that incorporates various behavioral phenomena into SEIR models, including risk-response dynamics, shifts in containment policies, adherence fatigue, and societal learning, alongside disease transmission dynamics. By testing our model against data from 8 countries, where extensive behavioral data were available, we simultaneously replicate death rates, mobility trends, fatigue levels, and policy changes, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Our model offers a comprehensive depiction of changes in multiple behavioral measures along with the spread of the disease. We assess the explanatory power of each model mechanism in capturing data variability. Our findings demonstrate that the comprehensive model that includes all mechanisms provides the most insightful perspective for understanding the influence of human behavior during pandemics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109368"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling the stochastic importation dynamics and establishment of novel pathogenic strains using a general branching processes framework 用一般分支过程框架模拟随机输入动力学和建立新的致病菌株。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109352

Jacob Curran-Sebastian , Frederik Mølkjær Andersen , Samir Bhatt

{"title":"Modelling the stochastic importation dynamics and establishment of novel pathogenic strains using a general branching processes framework","authors":"Jacob Curran-Sebastian , Frederik Mølkjær Andersen , Samir Bhatt","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity in the early phase of an outbreak into account in order to adequately capture the uncertainty in disease forecasts. We propose a general branching process model of disease spread that includes host-level heterogeneity, and that can be straightforwardly tailored to capture the salient aspects of a particular disease outbreak. We combine this with a model of case importation that occurs via an independent marked Poisson process. We use this framework to investigate the impact of different control strategies, particularly on the time to establishment of an invading, exogenous strain, using parameters taken from the literature for COVID-19 as an example. We also demonstrate how to combine our model with a deterministic approximation, such that longer term projections can be generated that still incorporate the uncertainty from the early growth phase of the epidemic. Our approach produces meaningful short- and medium-term projections of the course of a disease outbreak when model parameters are still uncertain and when stochasticity still has a large effect on the population dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109352"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142793018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Generalized measures of population synchrony 人口同步性的广义测度。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109344

Francis C. Motta , Kevin McGoff , Breschine Cummins , Steven B. Haase

{"title":"Generalized measures of population synchrony","authors":"Francis C. Motta , Kevin McGoff , Breschine Cummins , Steven B. Haase","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Synchronized behavior among individuals, broadly defined, is a ubiquitous feature of populations. Understanding mechanisms of (de)synchronization demands meaningful, interpretable, computable quantifications of synchrony, relevant to measurements that can be made of complex, dynamic populations. Despite the importance to analyzing and modeling populations, existing notions of synchrony often lack rigorous definitions, may be specialized to a particular experimental system and/or measurement, or may have undesirable properties that limit their utility. Here we introduce a notion of synchrony for populations of individuals occupying a compact metric space that depends on the Fréchet variance of the distribution of individuals across the space. We establish several fundamental and desirable mathematical properties of our proposed measure of synchrony, including continuity and invariance to metric scaling. We establish a general approximation result that controls the disparity between synchrony in the true space and the synchrony observed through a discretization of state space, as may occur when observable states are limited by measurement constraints. We develop efficient algorithms to compute synchrony for distributions in a variety of state spaces, including all finite state spaces and empirical distributions on the circle, and provide accessible implementations in an open-source Python module. To demonstrate the usefulness of the synchrony measure in biological applications, we investigate several biologically relevant models of mechanisms that can alter the dynamics of population synchrony over time, and reanalyze published experimental and model data concerning the dynamics of the intraerythrocytic developmental cycles of <em>Plasmodium</em> parasites. We anticipate that the rigorous definition of population synchrony and the mathematical and biological results presented here will be broadly useful in analyzing and modeling populations in a variety of contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109344"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142901511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Competing elastic and viscous gradients determine directional cell migration 竞争的弹性和粘性梯度决定了细胞的定向迁移。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109362

Pablo Saez , Pallavi U. Shirke , Jyoti R. Seth , Jorge Alegre-Cebollada , Abhijit Majumder

{"title":"Competing elastic and viscous gradients determine directional cell migration","authors":"Pablo Saez , Pallavi U. Shirke , Jyoti R. Seth , Jorge Alegre-Cebollada , Abhijit Majumder","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cell migration regulates central life processes including embryonic development, tissue regeneration, and tumor invasion. To establish the direction of migration, cells follow exogenous cues. Durotaxis, the directed cell migration towards elastic stiffness gradients, is the classical example of mechanical taxis. However, whether gradients of the relaxation properties in the extracellular matrix may also induce tactic responses (viscotaxis) is not well understood. Moreover, whether and how durotaxis and viscotaxis interact with each other has never been investigated. Here, we integrate clutch models for cell adhesions with an active gel theory of cell migration to reveal the mechanisms that govern viscotaxis. We show that viscotaxis is enabled by an asymmetric expression of cell adhesions that further polarize the intracellular motility forces to establish the cell front, similar to durotaxis. More importantly, when both relaxation and elastic gradients coexist, durotaxis appears more efficient in controlling directed cell migration, which we confirm with experimental results. However, the presence of opposing relaxation gradients to an elastic one can arrest or shift the migration direction. Our model rationalizes for the first time the mechanisms that govern viscotaxis and its competition with durotaxis through a mathematical model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109362"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142866826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Deficient cell-cell cohesion is linked with lobular localization in simplified models of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) 在小叶原位癌（LCIS）简化模型中，细胞内聚缺陷与小叶定位有关。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109369

Matthias Christgen , Rodrigo A. Caetano , Michael Eisenburger , Arne Traulsen , Philipp M. Altrock

{"title":"Deficient cell-cell cohesion is linked with lobular localization in simplified models of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS)","authors":"Matthias Christgen , Rodrigo A. Caetano , Michael Eisenburger , Arne Traulsen , Philipp M. Altrock","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lobular carcinoma <em>in situ</em> (LCIS) is a precursor of invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast. LCIS cells lack cell-cell cohesion due to the loss of E-cadherin. LCIS cells grow in mammary lobules rather than in ducts. The etiology of this pattern, especially its dependence on cellular cohesion, is incompletely understood. We simulated passive intra-glandular scattering of carcinoma <em>in situ</em> (CIS) cells in an ultra-simplified hollow mold tissue replica (HMTR) and a discrete-time mathematical model featuring particles of variable sizes representing single cells (LCIS-like particles) or groups of cohesive carcinoma cells (DCIS-like particles). The HMTR features structures reminiscent of a mammary duct with associated lobules. The discrete mathematical model characterizes spatial redistribution over time and includes transition probabilities between ductal or lobular localizations. Redistribution of particles converged toward an equilibrium depending on particle size. Strikingly, equilibrium proportions depended on particle properties, which we also confirm in a continuous-time mathematical model that considers controlling lobular properties such as crowding. Particles of increasing size, representing CIS cells with proficient cohesion, showed increasingly higher equilibrium ductal proportions. Our investigations represent two conceptual abstractions implying a link between loss of cell-cell cohesion and lobular localization of LCIS, which provide a much-needed logical foundation for studying the connections between collective cell behavior and cancer development in breast tissues. In light of the findings from our simplified modeling approach, we discuss multiple avenues for near-future research that can address and evaluate the redistribution hypothesis mathematically and empirically.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109369"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Chemotaxis effects on the vascular tumor growth: Phase-field model and simulations 血管肿瘤生长的趋化效应：相场模型与模拟

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109366

Soroosh Arshadi , Ahmadreza Pishevar , Mahdi Javanbakht , Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard

{"title":"Chemotaxis effects on the vascular tumor growth: Phase-field model and simulations","authors":"Soroosh Arshadi , Ahmadreza Pishevar , Mahdi Javanbakht , Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we propose a vascular tumor growth model that combines a phase-field tumor model with a phase-field angiogenesis model. By incorporating various tumor cell species, we capture the instabilities of the tumor in the presence of evolving neovasculature. The model not only considers different dynamics of tumor cell phase conversions, movement, and pressure effects but also provides a comprehensive representation of angiogenesis, encompassing chemotaxis of endothelial cells, sprouting, anastomoses, and blood flow in capillaries. This study evaluates the impact of chemotaxis on tumor cell movement in both avascular and vascular tumor growth scenarios. The results highlight the acceleration of tumor growth when angiogenesis is stimulated. Additionally, the investigation explores various initial distances of the tumor from neighboring vessels, revealing a critical threshold distance beyond which the angiogenesis factor fails to stimulate angiogenesis, resulting in the tumor maintaining a stable state. The integration of chemotaxis into the growth model induces instabilities, leading to increased nutrient availability and faster growth for the tumor. Furthermore, the study considers anti-angiogenesis therapy as an ideal approach, assuming complete inhibition of angiogenesis from the early stages. In this scenario, the tumor persists in a steady state, adhering to the avascular size limit in the absence of neovasculature. Conversely, when considering chemotaxis, anti-angiogenesis therapy loses efficiency, enabling unrestrained tumor growth towards neighboring vessels. This work sheds light on the intricate interplay among chemotaxis, angiogenesis, and anti-angiogenesis therapy in the context of vascular tumor growth, providing valuable insights for the development of targeted treatment strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109366"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142840715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fractional modelling of COVID-19 transmission incorporating asymptomatic and super-spreader individuals 纳入无症状和超级传播者个体的COVID-19传播的部分建模。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109373

Moein Khalighi , Leo Lahti , Faïçal Ndaïrou , Peter Rashkov , Delfim F.M. Torres

{"title":"Fractional modelling of COVID-19 transmission incorporating asymptomatic and super-spreader individuals","authors":"Moein Khalighi , Leo Lahti , Faïçal Ndaïrou , Peter Rashkov , Delfim F.M. Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, necessitating effective modelling approaches to understand and control its transmission dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates asymptomatic and super-spreader individuals in a single compartmental model. We highlight the advantages of utilizing incommensurate fractional order derivatives in ordinary differential equations, including increased flexibility in capturing disease dynamics and refined memory effects in the transmission process. We conduct a qualitative analysis of our proposed model, which involves determining the basic reproduction number and analysing the disease-free equilibrium’s stability. By fitting the proposed model with real data from Portugal and comparing it with existing models, we demonstrate that the incorporation of supplementary population classes and fractional derivatives significantly improves the model’s goodness of fit. Sensitivity analysis further provides valuable insights for designing effective strategies to mitigate the spread of the virus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109373"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142928951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A simple model of coupled individual behavior and its impact on epidemic dynamics 耦合个体行为及其对流行病动力学影响的简单模型。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109345

Jiangzhuo Chen , Baltazar Espinoza , Jingyuan Chou , Abba B. Gumel , Simon A. Levin , Madhav Marathe

{"title":"A simple model of coupled individual behavior and its impact on epidemic dynamics","authors":"Jiangzhuo Chen , Baltazar Espinoza , Jingyuan Chou , Abba B. Gumel , Simon A. Levin , Madhav Marathe","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Containing infectious disease outbreaks is a complex challenge that usually requires the deployment of multiple intervention strategies. While mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is a widely accepted tool to evaluate intervention strategies, most models and studies overlook the interdependence between individuals’ reactions to simultaneously implemented interventions. Intervention modeling efforts typically assume that individual adherence decisions are independent of each other. However, in the real world, individuals who are willing to comply with certain interventions may be more or less likely to comply with another intervention. The combined effect of interventions may depend on the correlation between adherence decisions. In this study, we consider vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and study how the correlation between individuals’ behaviors towards these two interventions strategies affects the epidemiological outcomes. Furthermore, we integrate disease surveillance in our model to study the effects of interventions triggered by surveillance events. This allows us to model a realistic operational context where surveillance informs the timing of interventions deployment, thereby influencing disease dynamics. Our results demonstrate the diverse effects of coupled individual behavior and highlight the importance of robust surveillance systems. Our study yields the following insights: <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> there exists a correlation level that minimizes the initial prevalence peak size; <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> the optimal correlation level depends on the disease’s basic reproduction number; <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> disease surveillance modulates the impact of interventions on reducing the epidemic burden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 109345"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0