Hannah Lanzrath , Eric von Lieres , Ralf Metzner , Gregor Huber
{"title":"Analyzing time activity curves from spatio-temporal tracer data to determine tracer transport velocity in plants","authors":"Hannah Lanzrath , Eric von Lieres , Ralf Metzner , Gregor Huber","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Non-invasive methods utilizing tracers have a great potential to investigate carbon allocation in plants. Specifically, radioactive tracers, such as <span><math><mrow><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>11</mn></mrow></msup><mtext>C</mtext></mrow></math></span>, enable the monitoring of spatially localized transport processes on short time scales in living plants. Typically, such tracer transport experiments yield time activity curves (TACs) of tracer activity over time at various locations along a transport pathway. These TACs can exhibit different characteristic shapes that strongly depend on tracer transport dynamics, reflecting properties such as transport velocity, exchange with surrounding tissue, and tracer storage along the pathway. Various methods, either data-driven or model-based, exist to determine transport velocities from TACs. However, for some TAC shapes, the inferred carbon tracer velocity values can be inconsistent and greatly vary between analysis methods. In the present study, we review and evaluate different analysis methods for their suitability to reliably determine tracer transport velocities from typical TAC shapes. For this evaluation, we use both <em>in silico</em> generated and experimentally acquired TACs from positron emission tomography measurements on tomato, barley, and bean. We demonstrate that each of the compared methods can be suitable for specific TAC shapes while being less or not appropriate for others. In conclusion, we present a case-specific evaluation of methods as a reference for analyzing TACs from tracer transport experiments, which allows to ensure a robust and globally comparable determination of transport velocities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109430"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143674702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christian H.S. Hamster , Jorik Schaap , Peter van Heijster , Joshua A. Dijksman
{"title":"Random evolutionary dynamics in predator–prey systems yields large, clustered ecosystems","authors":"Christian H.S. Hamster , Jorik Schaap , Peter van Heijster , Joshua A. Dijksman","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effect of introducing new species through evolution into communities. We use the setting of predator–prey systems. Predator–prey dynamics is classically well modeled by Lotka–Volterra (LV) equations, also when multiple predator and prey species co-exist. We use a stochastic method to introduce new species in a two-trophic LV system. We find that introducing random evolving species leads to robust ecosystems in which large numbers of species coexist. Crucially, in these large ecosystems an emergent clustering of species is observed, tying functional differences to phylogenetic history.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109417"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143672182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Epidemic spreading on biological evolution networks","authors":"Zhong-Pan Cao, Jin-Xuan Yang, Ying Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The spread of epidemics is closely related to network structure. In reality, network structure will change over time with the departure or employment of many individuals. Mathematical models can not only be used to simulate the evolution of networks, but also to better analyze the changes in the spread of epidemics. In the present work, we propose two mathematical models of evolution networks with the addition and deletion of nodes to analyze epidemic spread on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. We discuss various factors affecting the spread of epidemics when the evolution network reaches a steady state, including the number of new nodes and their initial degree, the deletion rate of nodes, and so on. The results show that in homogeneous networks, the epidemic threshold first increases and then decreases, while in heterogeneous networks, the epidemic threshold increases or decreases under certain conditions. It provides many measures to improve the epidemic threshold and slow down the spread of epidemics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109416"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143672156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effects of tritiated water on competitive outcomes of two Daphnia species in lakes: A reaction–diffusion tritium-taxis model","authors":"Xiaoshuang Li , Hua Nie , Xiao Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The discharge of nuclear-contaminated water, particularly tritiated water (HTO), poses a significant global environmental challenge due to its potential negative impacts on ecosystems. To examine how such discharges influence the competitive dynamics between two Daphnia species in lake environments, we develop a spatiotemporal competition model that incorporates a tritium-taxis term. Our findings indicate that a moderate HTO input rate, combined with varying radiosensitivity between the species, can reverse the competitive outcomes between the two species. Specifically, species with lower radiosensitivity to HTO may compensate for competitive disadvantages, potentially enhancing biodiversity, or conversely, gain a competitive edge, which could reduce biodiversity. Moreover, a low HTO removal rate can lead to bistability or tristability in the system, while strong tritium-taxis promotes the development of spatially heterogeneous patterns. This study underscores the importance of considering the indirect effects of moderate HTO input and species-specific radiosensitivity, which can result in counterintuitive ecological dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109420"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143598670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael Batista , Patrick Murphy , Oleg A. Igoshin , Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev
{"title":"Role of non-exponential reversal times in aggregation models of bacterial populations","authors":"Michael Batista , Patrick Murphy , Oleg A. Igoshin , Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Individual bacteria typically follow somewhat simple rules of motion, but collective behavior can exhibit complex behavioral patterns. For instance, the formation and dispersal of aggregates of reversing bacteria in biofilms are primarily driven by coordinated motion among cells. Many mathematical models of aggregation assume that cells have no memory, e.g., the time between their behavior changes, such as direction reversals, is exponentially distributed. However, in practice, the distribution is quite distinct from exponential. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze numerically the importance of non-exponential reversal times in 1D agent-based and kinetic models of aggregation. In particular, we consider these models in a practical parameter regime by fitting a Gamma distribution to represent the run times of myxobacteria and study their collective behavior with exponential and non-exponential reversal times. We demonstrate that non-exponential reversal times aid aggregation and result in tighter aggregates. We compare and contrast the behavior of agent-based and kinetic models that consider aggregation driven by chemotaxis. Thus, incorporating non-exponential reversal times into models of aggregation can be particularly important for reproducing experimental data, such as aggregate persistence and dispersal. These results provide a simple example of how the existence of memory helps bacteria coordinate their behaviors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109418"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143588891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mechanistic models are hypotheses: A perspective","authors":"John W Glasser , Zhilan Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Science involves perceiving patterns (events that are repeated) in observations, hypothesizing causal explanations (underlying processes), and testing them. Mathematical models either describe or provide explanations for patterns. The equations of descriptive models have convenient mathematical properties while those of mechanistic ones correspond to processes. The parameters of descriptive models are fit to observations by choosing values that minimize discrepant predictions. Because mechanistic models are hypotheses about the processes underlying patterns, their parameters should not be fit, but rather, should be based insofar as possible on first principles or estimated independently. The precision of mathematics facilitates comparing the predictions of mechanistic models to the patterns that they purport to explain and, until concordant, identifying and remedying the cause(s) of disparities.</div><div>The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official positions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or National Science Foundation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109419"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143545259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohamed Ladib , Cameron J. Browne , Hayriye Gulbudak , Aziz Ouhinou
{"title":"A mathematical modeling study of the effectiveness of contact tracing in reducing the spread of infectious diseases with incubation period","authors":"Mohamed Ladib , Cameron J. Browne , Hayriye Gulbudak , Aziz Ouhinou","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we study an epidemic model with demography that incorporates some key aspects of the contact tracing intervention. We derive generic formulae for the effective reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> when contact tracing is employed to mitigate the spread of infection. The derived expressions are reformulated in terms of the initial reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> (in the absence of tracing), the number of traced cases caused by a primary untraced reported index case, and the average number of secondary cases infected by traced infectees during their infectious period. In parallel, under some restrictions, the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The model was fitted to data of Ebola disease collected during the 2014–2016 outbreaks in West Africa. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to investigate the effect of key parameters on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>. By considering ongoing interventions, the simulations indicate whether contact tracing can suppress <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> below unity, as well as identify parameter regions where it can effectively contain epidemic outbreaks when applied with a given level of efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"383 ","pages":"Article 109415"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143532276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A framework for the modelling and the analysis of epidemiological spread in commuting populations","authors":"Pierre-Alexandre Bliman , Boureima Sangaré , Assane Savadogo","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109403","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109403","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly speaking the case in populous urban centre. Our modelling contribution develops along two axes. To model the commuting, we consider a large number of distinct <em>homogeneous</em> groups of individuals of various sizes, called <em>subpopulations</em>, and focus on the modelling of the changing conditions of their mixing along time and of the induced disease transmission. Also, for the purposes of the study, we propose a general class of epidemiological models in which the ‘force of infection’ plays a central role, which extends and unifies several classes previously developed. We take special care in explaining the modelling approach in details, and provide first analytic results that allow to compute or estimate the value of the basic reproduction number for such general periodic epidemic systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"382 ","pages":"Article 109403"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143517759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bifurcations of higher codimension in a Leslie–Gower predator–prey model with Holling II functional response and weak Allee effect","authors":"Zhenliang Zhu , Qun Zhu , Lingling Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109405","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109405","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A Leslie-type predator–prey system with Holling II functional response and weak Allee effect in prey is analyzed deeply in this paper. Through rigorous analysis, the system can undergo a series of bifurcations such as cusp type nilpotent bifurcation of codimension 4 and a degenerate Hopf bifurcation of codimension up to 3 as the parameters vary. Compared with the system without Allee effect, it can be concluded that weak Allee effect can induce more abundant dynamics and bifurcations, in particular, the increase in the number of equilibria and the appearance of multiple limit cycles. Moreover, when the intensity of predation is too high, the prey affected by the weak Allee effect will also become extinct, and eventually lead to the collapse of the system. Finally, we present some numerical simulations by MATCONT to illustrate the existence of bifurcations and some phase portraits of the system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"382 ","pages":"Article 109405"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maicon de Paiva Torres , Fran Sérgio Lobato , Gustavo Barbosa Libotte
{"title":"Exploring trade-offs in drug administration for cancer treatment: A multi-criteria optimisation approach","authors":"Maicon de Paiva Torres , Fran Sérgio Lobato , Gustavo Barbosa Libotte","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the combination of immunotherapy and chemotherapy in cancer treatment, recognising its promising effectiveness but highlighting the challenges of complex interactions between these therapeutic modalities. The central objective is to determine guidelines for the optimal administration of drugs, using an optimal control model that considers interactions in tumour dynamics, including cancer cells, the immune system, and therapeutic agents. The optimal control model is transformed into a multi-objective optimisation problem with treatment constraints. This is achieved by introducing adjustable trade-offs, allowing personalised adaptations in drug administration to achieve an optimal balance between established objectives. Various optimisation problems are addressed, considering two and three simultaneous objectives, such as optimising the number of cancer cells and the density of effector cells at the final treatment time. The diverse combinations presented reflect the model’s flexibility in the face of multi-objective optimisation, providing a range of approaches to meet specific medical needs. The analysis of Pareto optimal fronts in <em>in silico</em> investigation offers an additional resource for decision-makers, enabling a more effective determination of the optimal administration of cytotoxic and immunotherapeutic agents. By leveraging an optimal control model, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of considering interactions in tumour dynamics, including the integration of immunotherapy and chemotherapy. Our findings underscore the importance of tailored treatment plans to achieve optimal outcomes, showcasing the versatility of our approach in addressing individual patient needs. The insights gained from our analysis offer valuable guidance for future research and clinical practice, paving the way for more effective and personalised cancer therapies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"382 ","pages":"Article 109404"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143508981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}