Ecography最新文献

{"title":"Richness patterns in vertebrates are robust to the Linnean and Wallacean shortfalls","authors":"Søren Faurby, Brody Sandel","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07467","url":null,"abstract":"Nearly all research has to rely on imprecise data. This poses a challenge of knowing which conclusions are reliable despite potential data quality issues. One field that has been fundamentally affected by this is macroecology. Can we understand drivers of biodiversity patterns without having fully reliable distributional data? In this paper, we investigated the reliability of biodiversity patterns focused on three groups of terrestrial vertebrates ranging from very well known (birds and mammals) to relatively poorly known (amphibians). We compared two expert-derived sets of range maps generated more than 10 years apart. We found that nearly half of all species had changes in taxonomy and/or distribution, but despite this, the overall spatial diversity patterns between the two sets were extraordinarily similar for all three groups. We further found that the minute changes in richness we saw were almost exclusively driven by changes in the mapped ranges of already known species rather than the discovery of new species, even though up to 18% of new species were added between assessments. Since the patterns were highly similar between the assessments, this suggests that, at least for vertebrates, data quality does not affect analyses of biodiversity patterns. This further implies that results based on older and less precise input data remain reliable, even though more precise input data have become available.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional databases demonstrate macroecological patterns less clearly than systematically collected field data","authors":"Matthew R. Kerr, Nicole Currie, Matthew A. Kosnik, John Alroy","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07355","url":null,"abstract":"The analysis of macroecological patterns has necessitated the use of large, composite datasets recording local-scale species occurrences distributed across the globe. These datasets, however, have various spatial and temporal biases, including taxonomic under sampling, range gaps for many species, and geographic uncertainty. They have rarely been compared to data collected in the field across large spatial gradients. In this paper we use two datasets built from online repositories plus standardised field collections of death assemblages to reconstruct macroecological patterns for marine bivalves along the eastern coastline of Australia – spanning over 20° of latitude and the transition between tropical and temperate regions. We test the strength of the latitudinal diversity gradient using four diversity measures and identify a biogeographical boundary. The field collection demonstrates a strong latitudinal gradient, but results from the composite datasets were varied. Adding observation-based records to the composite dataset obscured the latitudinal gradient. The location of the biogeographic boundary was the same in all datasets, and the location mirrored two previously published bioregionalisations. Although broad patterns seen in the field can be uncovered from composite macroecological datasets, care both in dataset construction and choice of methods is needed to ensure robust results.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parsimonious machine learning for the global mapping of aboveground biomass potential","authors":"Diego Bengochea Paz, Alba Marquez-Torres, João Pompeu, Olivier Martin-Ducup, Ferdinando Villa, Carmen Köhler, Stefano Balbi","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07587","url":null,"abstract":"Advances in computational power and methods, and the widespread availability of remote sensing data have driven the development of machine learning models for estimating global carbon storage. Current models often rely on dozens of predictor variables to estimate aboveground biomass density (AGBD), resulting in accurate but complex models that are challenging to interpret from a biological and ecological standpoint. Yet, it remains unclear whether such model complexity is essential to achieving accurate predictions. This manuscript investigates the potential to create a simpler, yet accurate, global AGBD model. Our approach leverages only climate-based predictors, using a systematic predictor selection process to determine the optimal subset of variables that maximize model accuracy. Surprisingly, we found that a minimal model trained with only four bioclimatic variables outperformed more complex models. When compared to a state-of-the-art complex model and ground-based data, our model achieved comparable accuracy using only four predictors, far fewer than the 186 predictors used in the complex model. In conclusion, we present a lightweight, interpretable climate-based model for AGBD estimation, with the additional advantage of being adaptable for projecting AGBD under future climate scenarios.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generation length of the world's amphibians and reptiles","authors":"Giordano Mancini, Luca Santini, Victor Cazalis, Gentile Francesco Ficetola, Shai Meiri, Uri Roll, Sofia Silvestri, Daniel Pincheira-Donoso, Moreno Di Marco","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07527","url":null,"abstract":"Variation in life histories influences demographic processes, from adaptive changes to population declines leading to extinction. Among life history traits, generation length offers a critical feature to forecast species' demographic trajectories such as population declines (widely used by the IUCN Red List) and adaptability to environmental change over time. Therefore, estimates of generation length are crucial to monitor demographic stability or predict future changes in highly threatened organisms, particularly amphibians and reptiles, which are particularly threatened among vertebrates and for which uncertainty in future impacts remains high. Despite its importance, generation length for amphibians and reptiles is largely missing. Here, we aim to fill in this gap by modeling generation lengths for amphibians, squamates and testudines as a function of species size, climate, life history and phylogeny using generalized additive models and phylogenetic generalized least squares. We estimated generation lengths for 5059 (57%) amphibians, 8722 (73%) squamates and 117 (32%) testudines. Our models performed well for most families (e.g. Bufonidae among amphibians, Lacertidae and Colubridae among squamates, and Geoemydidae among testudines) while we found high uncertainty around the prediction of a few families, notably Chamaeleonidae. Species' body size and mean temperature were the main predictors of generation length in all groups. Although our estimates are not meant to substitute robust and validated measurements from field studies or natural history museums, they can help reduce existing biases in conservation assessments until field data is comprehensively available.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drier, more seasonal climates strengthen coordination of hydraulic, leaf economic and reproductive strategies in subtropical forest tree communities","authors":"Julian Radford-Smith, John M. Dwyer","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07620","url":null,"abstract":"Trade-offs relating to resource acquisition and conservation, reproduction and longevity generate considerable trait variation among co-occurring tree species, yet little is known about how the nature and strength of these trade-offs shift along gradients of resource availability. For rainforest and dry forest tree communities distributed across a continuous gradient of moisture availability in Australia's subtropics (600 to 2500 mm rainfall yr⁻¹), we examined the coordination of hydraulic, leaf economic and reproductive traits using a metric of multi-trait covariance and pairwise trait correlations. We hypothesized that trait coordination would be strongest at the dry and wet extremes of the moisture gradient, capturing strong moisture- and light-driven trade-offs, respectively. Overall trait covariance peaked in the driest sites and declined linearly along the regional moisture gradient, a trend also seen in the correlation of many trait pairs. In dry forests, stronger coordination of hydraulic and leaf economic traits captured a drought tolerance-drought avoidance spectrum, while correlations involving seed size reflected a ‘stature–recruitment' trade-off. Albeit far weaker, we found that shade-tolerance and height-driven constraints on hydraulic function drove some trait coordination in wetter, light-limited sites. Our findings underscore the importance of interpreting trait-based trade-offs within the context of each site's resource availability. We established that moisture limitation places much stronger constraints on trait combinations than light limitation and identified key trade-off axes that will likely become increasingly important under ongoing climate change.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Species that invade natural areas have shorter lag times than other naturalized ornamental species","authors":"Jennifer L. Bufford, Thomas N. Dawes, Philip E. Hulme","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07721","url":null,"abstract":"Time lags between initial introduction and subsequent naturalization of non-native species are infrequently quantified but are pivotal to address the dynamics of plant invasions. Key outstanding questions are the magnitude of these time lags, how they reflect variation in introduction effort, and whether they tend to be shorter for species known to be invasive. Using ornamental plant nursery catalogues from New Zealand spanning over 130 years, we examined lag times for introduced ornamental plants, contrasting species invasive in natural areas with other naturalized species and accounting for introduction effort. We estimated the date of introduction from the first record in nursery catalogues and calculated the lag time between the first record and the date of naturalization. Introduction effort was estimated using the frequency with which plants were sold across catalogues following introduction. Of the 1395 ornamental species in our nursery catalogue database, 340 (24%) had become naturalized by 2020. Lag times for all naturalized species averaged only 60 years and have not changed significantly over time. Ornamental species that invade natural areas had shorter lag times than other naturalized ornamentals, and this was not explained by the frequency with which a species was listed in nursery catalogues or its life form. New Zealand's world-leading biosecurity regulations limiting the introduction of non-native ornamental plants were only implemented in the last 30 years. Given an average 60-year lag time, this indicates a substantial invasion debt. Therefore, a significant number of species currently grown in private gardens likely have the potential to naturalize and become invasive in the coming decades, particularly those ornamentals that are or have been widely sold. A better understanding of both the historical and contemporary ornamental horticulture market appears essential to disentangle drivers of plant naturalization and their impacts from historical trends and to correctly identify future high-risk species.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"If the tape were played again: convergent evolution of clade sizes and taxonomic composition in two tropical assemblages of Coleoptera","authors":"Fiona L. Carpenter, Alfried P. Vogler","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07786","url":null,"abstract":"Communities of insects around the world consist of unique sets of species that have evolved under different historical processes of assembly and lineage diversification. Whole-community phylogenetics can partition the shared and uniquely derived evolutionary history across sites. We used mitochondrial genome sequences of > 1000 species each from two assemblages of Coleoptera (beetles) in distantly situated tropical lowland rainforests of Malaysia and Panama for phylogenetic reconstruction and community ecological analysis. Assemblages were entirely distinct at the species level but were surprisingly similar at the family level in their overall composition and relative species richness. This pattern, coupled with a high degree of phylogenetic clustering, suggests that lineage-specific tendencies have driven evolutionarily independent yet parallel diversification across distinct regions. The inclusion of species-poor lineages reduced the level of community clustering in parallel in both sites, indicating the role of lineage-specific factors in shaping species richness and local community composition. Our findings reveal a strong connection between relative species richness in local communities and global clade sizes, and consistent phylogenetic patterns across assemblages. While biotic exchange in deep time likely played a secondary role, the primary driver appears to be the intrinsic diversification rates unique to each clade (family). Such dynamics make assembly composition more predictable, i.e. replaying the ‘evolutionary tape' would yield similar outcomes wherever a new assemblage of tropical-forest Coleoptera arises.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143600045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cross-continental variation of herbivore resistance in a global plant invader","authors":"Peipei Cao, Zhi-Yong Liao, Shengyu Wang, Madalin Parepa, Lei Zhang, Jingwen Bi, Yujie Zhao, Yaolin Guo, Tiantian Lin, Stacy B. Endriss, Jihua Wu, Rui-Ting Ju, Christina L. Richards, Oliver Bossdorf, Bo Li","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07569","url":null,"abstract":"While successful plant invasions often occur in novel environments, invasive species usually occupy broad niches within their native and introduced ranges. A better understanding of the process of invasion therefore requires a wide sampling of ranges, and a good knowledge of introduction history. We tested for differentiation in herbivore resistance among 128 introduced (European, North American) and native (Chinese, Japanese) populations of the invasive Japanese knotweed <i>Reynoutria japonica</i> in two common gardens in the native range: one in Shanghai and the other in Yunnan. In both common gardens, we found that herbivore resistance of plants from introduced populations differed from that from native populations in China but not from native populations in Japan, the putative source of introduction. Compared to native Chinese populations, plants from native Japanese populations and introduced European and North American populations had thicker leaves in both common gardens, and a lower C:N ratio but higher flavonoids content in the Shanghai garden. Variation in herbivore resistance was more strongly associated with climate of collecting sites for populations from the native range than for those from introduced ranges. Our results support the hypothesis that introduction of particularly resistant plants from Japan may have played a key role in driving biogeographic variation in herbivore resistance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding introduction history to interpret the biogeographic divergence of global plant invaders.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143600051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global patterns in plant environmental breadths","authors":"Marco Barandun, Andrea Paz, Nina van Tiel, Johan van den Hoogen, Loïc Pellissier, Thomas W. Crowther, Daniel S. Maynard","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07637","url":null,"abstract":"The latitudinal gradient in plant diversity is one of the most famous patterns in ecology. It is hypothesised that narrow niche breadths and restricted geographic ranges in the tropics allow more species to coexist with minimal overlap relative to high-latitude regions. Although a wealth of studies have investigated these questions across different regions and taxonomic groups, these have consistently yielded contradictory results, leading to the continued persistence of numerous ecological explanations. Here, using a global occurrence database containing over 100 000 plant species, we provide the first globally standardised investigation into the geographic relationships among latitudinal range, environmental breadth, and latitudinal median. We find limited evidence for a global latitudinal gradient in species' ranges and environmental breadths, with results varying between hemispheres and along latitude within each hemisphere. In agreement with previous observations, we show consistent support for a latitudinal gradient in environmental breadth and latitudinal range, but only for trees in the Northern Hemisphere and for tropical species. In the Southern Hemisphere, conversely, these trends are inverted for non-tropical species, with latitudinal range and environmental breadth decreasing with distance from the equator. Moreover, these relationships are even weaker with environmental breadth, even though there is a strong relationship between environmental breadth and latitudinal range. By applying standardised methods at the global scale, these results suggest that variation in species' ranges is largely a by-product of biogeographic patterns rather than niche processes. Collectively, this work illustrates that existing ecological ‘rules' linking niche breadth to latitude predominantly reflect regional sampling biases and a historical focus on the Northern Hemisphere and certain taxonomic groups.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143600043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing hidden sources of uncertainty in biodiversity trend assessments","authors":"Martin A. Wilkes, Morwenna Mckenzie, Andrew Johnson, Christopher Hassall, Martyn Kelly, Nigel Willby, Lee E. Brown","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07441","url":null,"abstract":"Idiosyncratic decisions during the biodiversity trend assessment process may limit reproducibility, whilst ‘hidden' uncertainty due to collection bias, taxonomic incompleteness, and variable taxonomic resolution may limit the reliability of reported trends. We model alternative decisions made during assessment of taxon-level abundance and distribution trends using an 18-year time series covering freshwater fish, invertebrates, and primary producers in England. Through three case studies, we test for collection bias and quantify uncertainty stemming from data preparation and model specification decisions, assess the risk of conflating trends for individual species when aggregating data to higher taxonomic ranks, and evaluate the potential uncertainty stemming from taxonomic incompleteness. Choice of optimizer algorithm and data filtering to obtain more complete time series explained 52.5% of the variation in trend estimates, obscuring the signal from taxon-specific trends. The use of penalized iteratively reweighted least squares, a simplified approach to model optimization, was the most important source of uncertainty. Application of increasingly harsh data filters exacerbated collection bias in the modelled dataset. Aggregation to higher taxonomic ranks was a significant source of uncertainty, leading to conflation of trends among protected and invasive species. We also found potential for substantial positive bias in trend estimation across six fish populations which were not consistently recorded in all operational areas. We complement analyses of observational data with in silico experiments in which monitoring and trend assessment processes were simulated to enable comparison of trend estimates with known underlying trends, confirming that collection bias, data filtering and taxonomic incompleteness have significant negative impacts on the accuracy of trend estimates. Identifying and managing uncertainty in biodiversity trend assessment is crucial for informing effective conservation policy and practice. We highlight several serious sources of uncertainty affecting biodiversity trend analyses and present tools to improve the transparency of decisions made during the trend assessment process.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143560762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}