Ecography最新文献

{"title":"Modeling climate adaptive habitat connectivity for conservation planning in Colombia","authors":"Lei Song,&nbsp;Amy E. Frazier,&nbsp;Patrick R. Roehrdanz,&nbsp;Wenxin Yang,&nbsp;Joana M. Krieger,&nbsp;Nickolas McManus,&nbsp;Elkin A. Noguera- Urbano,&nbsp;Susana Rodriguez- Buritica,&nbsp;Dan Willett","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08789","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08789","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To remain effective under global change, conservation decisions must anticipate shifting climates, species responses to climate change and the dispersal pathways needed to track suitable climate. Yet most assessments of ecological connectivity do not consider how the landscape will change, or, if they do, they only consider a single future time point, which may miss key intermediate states and stepwise pathways for climate-driven dispersal. We develop and apply a trajectory-based, climate adaptive connectivity framework for 294 terrestrial mammals in Colombia that are projected to retain accessible future habitat. Here, climate adaptive connectivity refers to potential connectivity driven by changing climatic suitability across time. We replicated expert-validated species distribution models (SDMs) from BioModelos to estimate baseline and future habitat suitability (1970–2000; 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). For each species, we ran omnidirectional circuit theory connectivity models (Omniscape) with species-specific dispersal distances and habitat suitability-based conductance surface. We projected connectivity across multiple future time steps and then accumulated the resulting connectivity values at each endpoint. This multi-step assessment revealed transient connectivity barriers in central Colombia that repeatedly disrupt potential climate-tracking pathways but are missed by endpoint-only assessments. We then classified the aggregated connectivity of all species into operational types representing different modes of climate connectivity support to inform national action. Under SSP126, areas supporting and impeding connectivity interlace and cluster in northwestern Colombia, likely reflecting Andean climatic gradients, and remain relatively stable. Under higher emissions, well-connected zones contract toward the Andes and barrier hotspots shift, indicating that a central hotspot linking the Colombian Amazon and Andes may transition from facilitator to barrier. Compared with endpoint-only single-step assessments, our multi-step approach reveals transient yet essential linkages that emerge during intermediate periods and may otherwise be missed, providing actionable guidance on both land protection and restoration.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148902432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric species turnover underpins the latitudinal diversity gradient in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot of India","authors":"Rohitashva Shukla,&nbsp;Vidyadhar Atkore,&nbsp;Anuradha Bhat,&nbsp;Neelesh Dahanukar,&nbsp;Jeyaraj Antony Johnson,&nbsp;Rajeev Raghavan,&nbsp;Maria Dornelas,&nbsp;Kartik Shanker,&nbsp;Anne E. Magurran","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08538","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08538","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Latitudinal diversity gradients (LDGs), namely an increase in species richness from higher to lower latitudes, are one of ecology's best documented patterns, yet how the fundamental components of compositional mismatches (i.e. species gains and losses along a gradient) explain these patterns remains poorly understood. As we argue here, one of two alternative turnover scenarios must apply to a typical latitudinal richness gradient. Such gradients can be the product of either a scenario where both species gains and losses are correlated and increase with geographical distance, or of uncorrelated change where species gains increase with distance, but losses remain constant. We distinguish between these alternatives using the freshwater fish communities of the Western Ghats of India, a biodiversity hotspot with a strong latitudinal species richness gradient. We find that the uncorrelated change scenario prevails for both taxonomic and functional diversity, and on both the western and eastern slopes of the mountain range, albeit with subtle differences. Our results suggest that these uncorrelated changes result from high nestedness among communities and reflect the dominance of dispersal processes in the region. As the observed pattern arises due to an increase in range-restricted species at lower latitudes, it is consistent with Rapoport's rule. Partitioning species turnover into its gain and loss components thus helps explain the mechanisms underlying latitudinal gradients of diversity, and informs our understanding of biodiversity change.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08538","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149020002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phylogenetic structure of conifers in regional floras in relation to climate and environmental heterogeneity worldwide","authors":"Hong Qian,&nbsp;Michael Kessler,&nbsp;Shenhua Qian","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08385","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08385","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite having only about 670 species worldwide, conifers are one of the ecologically and economically most important plant groups. They have a rich fossil record and previous studies have shown that their current diversity is the result of past radiations, extinction, and dispersal events, restricting many genera to either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere, and concentrating species richness in specific regions. However, it remains poorly explored how this translates into patterns of phylogenetic diversity. In this study, we used a species-level megaphylogeny and species lists for 391 geographic units worldwide to calculate six metrics of phylogenetic diversity and disparity, and to relate these to climatic factors. We found that the different metrics provided different patterns, reflecting deep and shallow evolutionary history, but that overall southeastern China had the highest values. We also found that patterns of phylogenetic diversity and disparity were better explained by current than historical climate, by temperature- than precipitation-related variables, and by climatic seasonality than by climatic extremes. These patterns differ in many important regards from those known from ferns and angiosperms. Most notably, species-poor conifer assemblages tend to have high phylogenetic dispersion, being composed of few species belonging to distinct lineages, rather than few lineages with many species each, as is typical for ferns and angiosperms. We conclude that the ecological and evolutionary processes determining community assembly in conifers differ fundamentally from those seen in ferns and angiosperms, reflecting their low global species richness.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08385","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148717610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The projected risk of plant invasions on the peri-Antarctic islands under climate change","authors":"Tom Vorstenbosch,&nbsp;Franz Essl,&nbsp;Bernd Lenzner,&nbsp;Johannes Wessely,&nbsp;Wayne Dawson,&nbsp;Mark van Kleunen,&nbsp;Jan Pergl,&nbsp;Petr Pyšek,&nbsp;Stefan Dullinger","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08195","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08195","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The peri-Antarctic islands have largely been shielded from alien plant species due to low human pressure, limited introduction pathways, and local harsh climates. However, climate change is expected to lower these barriers. We assess the vulnerability of 12 peri-Antarctic islands to invasion by 2220 plant species invasive in at least one region of the globe by projecting their climatic suitability under recent climate (1981–2010) and three future (2071–2100) climate change scenarios, ranging from mild to severe. We use three general circulation models (GCMs) and predictor sets, and account for widespread non-analog climatic conditions by excluding projections outside the clamping mask. Our results reveal that eight islands are already climatically suitable for at least 100 invasive species. Climate change will generally increase climatic suitability for alien plants, particularly under moderate (+39% species on average across GCMs and islands) and severe climate change (+36% species). Nevertheless, under one GCM, suitability declines (−9.3% species) on eight islands under the most severe scenario. Currently, forbs and graminoids dominate native and alien plant communities, with woody species largely absent from colder islands. Our projections suggest that, if introduced, more woody alien species could establish, with all islands becoming suitable for at least one alien tree species even under moderate climate change. The greatest increases in alien species richness averaged across all scenarios and GCMs are projected for the Kerguelen (206 species) and Falkland Islands (175 species), whereas Signy (31 species), King George (72 species), and the Prince Edward Islands (54 species) will remain relatively resistant to plant invasion, despite strong proportional increases. These findings highlight an increasing vulnerability of the peri-Antarctic island ecosystems to plant invasions and the need for strong biosecurity measures to limit further propagule introductions. Proactive management strategies are essential to mitigate risks and preserve the ecological integrity of these unique ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08195","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148979691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-distance pollen transport mediated by migratory hoverflies","authors":"Antonín Hlaváček,&nbsp;Martin Freudenfeld,&nbsp;Tadeáš Ryšan,&nbsp;Šimon Zeman,&nbsp;Vojtěch Jirásek,&nbsp;Radek K. Lučan,&nbsp;Karl R. Wotton,&nbsp;Jakub Štenc,&nbsp;Jiří Hadrava","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08963","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08963","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Long-distance animal migrations shape ecosystems by redistributing nutrients, connecting populations, and mediating ecological interactions. However, the ecological contributions of many abundant insect migrants remain poorly quantified. Hoverflies are among the most numerous migratory insects and highly efficient pollinators, suggesting that their seasonal movements could facilitate long-distance pollen transport. Despite this, the amount of pollen transfer during migration has not been comprehensively quantified. Here, we analysed pollen loads carried by the three most common autumn-migrating hoverfly species and combined this data with revised estimates of active migratory bioflows from four sites to estimate pollen transport across western Europe. Individual hoverflies carried high pollen loads, with the largest species averaging over 500 grains per individual. Extrapolation across migratory bioflows indicates that movements between the British Isles and continental Europe alone transfer more than 300 billion pollen grains each autumn, with total annual transfer by these migratory hoverflies likely exceeding trillions of grains. These findings identify migratory hoverflies as previously underestimated agents of long-distance pollen dispersal, with important implications for plant population connectivity and ecosystem functioning at continental scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08963","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148979692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-driven resource availability drives medium- and broad-scale temporal changes in owl–prey interactions over 24 years in a semi-arid ecosystem","authors":"Jazmin M. Quiroz-Calizaya,&nbsp;Adriana Lozada,&nbsp;Douglas A. Kelt,&nbsp;Alejandra J. Troncoso,&nbsp;Peter L. Meserve,&nbsp;M. Andrea Previtali,&nbsp;W. Bryan Milstead,&nbsp;Julio R. Gutiérrez,&nbsp;Craig Weideman,&nbsp;Nicolas Gouin,&nbsp;Tyler R. Kartzinel,&nbsp;Karin Maldonado,&nbsp;Angéline Bertin","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08304","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08304","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predator–prey interactions are vital to ecosystem functioning but may be disrupted by climate change. We investigated a food-web network involving three owl species over 24 years in a semi-arid ecosystem at Bosque Fray Jorge National Park, Chile. We hypothesized that years of low precipitation cause resource scarcity, prompting dietary niche partitioning by owls via diet specialization or differential diversification. Because climate varies across multiple temporal scales (seasonal variability, medium-scale changes influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles, and long-term shifts associated with climate change), we expected food-web characteristics to exhibit matching multi-scale temporal structure. Using 16 932 owl pellets collected over 229 monthly surveys between 1990 and 2015 and analyzed with an asymmetric eigenvector map framework, we assessed temporal patterns in niche partitioning, diet specialization, trophic niche breadth, and prey richness across time scales to evaluate climatic and biotic drivers. Owl trophic characteristics exhibited significant temporal structure at medium (3.4–9.4 years) and long (15–24 years) timescales, the former aligning with climatic oscillations and the latter with decadal shifts. Consistent with the prediction that resource scarcity promotes diet specialization, decreases in precipitation, small-mammal abundance, and ecosystem productivity led to reduced niche overlap and narrower niche breadth at medium scales. At the larger scales, a major shift after 2003 coincided with declines in both precipitation and temperature. Detected changes were also consistent with niche theory but suggest more complex mechanisms at play at this timescale, since decreases in niche overlap were associated not only with diet specialization but also with increases in overall prey richness, indicating the incorporation of unused prey species. Temperature was the strongest driver of large-scale structure in prey richness, exceeding resource-based variables. Together, our results highlight the complex interplay between climatic factors and resource availability in shaping owl–prey networks, and underscore their fragility under ongoing climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08304","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148408829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to reduce sampling error in species population monitoring: from theory to methods","authors":"Robin J. Boyd,&nbsp;Susan Jarvis,&nbsp;Xiao-Li Meng,&nbsp;Gary D. Powney,&nbsp;Rebecca Spake,&nbsp;Oliver L. Pescott","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08103","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08103","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Progress towards national and international targets to halt and reverse declines in species' abundances will be assessed using multispecies indicators (MSIs). A distinction must be drawn between two MSIs. One is the ideal, but unobserved, MSI that would have been measured had all species and sites within the scope of the target been sampled. The other is the empirical MSI estimated from the sample in hand. The discrepancy between the two, the sampling error, determines whether the empirical MSI faithfully reflects progress towards abundance targets.</p><p>We decompose the sampling error of common sample-based MSIs algebraically into a geographic component reflecting the effect of non-sampled sites and a taxonomic component reflecting the effect of non-sampled species. Building on established results from sampling theory, we further decompose each component into three contributing factors: the data defect (capturing the bias of the sampling process), the data scarcity (capturing the odds that species and sites are not sampled) and the problem difficulty (caused by variation in abundance across sites and species).</p><p>Having shown that both error components are determined by the same three factors, we review approaches to mitigating them. The approaches can be categorised broadly as obtaining more data, estimating the sample-based MSI in a different way (e.g. using a model), or redefining the ‘target population'. The target population is effectively the spatial and taxonomic scope of the MSI, so redefining it changes what is being estimated and modifies the problem at hand. Hence, it can be justified only when an accurate answer to a different question (e.g. pertaining to a subset of species from the original population) is preferable to an inaccurate answer to the original one.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08103","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148768452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estuarine benthic diversity declines with temperature across a tropical–temperate gradient","authors":"Sally A. Bracewell,&nbsp;Mariana Mayer-Pinto,&nbsp;Katherine A. Dafforn,&nbsp;Sebastian Vadillo Gonzalez,&nbsp;Thayanne L. Barros,&nbsp;Emma L. Johnston","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08520","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08520","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Estuarine benthic sediments are important habitats that support ecosystem health and productivity, but the drivers of large-scale patterns in benthic diversity are not well documented. Using 18S amplicon sequencing of 425 sediment DNA samples from estuaries spanning 20° of latitude along Australia's east coast, we assessed tropical–temperate patterns in benthic eukaryotic richness, community composition, and environmental structuring. Contrary to classical expectations, ASV richness declined towards the tropics, with higher richness in temperate estuaries. This inverse gradient was evident for total eukaryotes, microeukaryotes, macrofaunal metazoans, and multicellular algae, while microbial metazoans and unicellular algae showed weaker or no latitudinal trends. Temperature was one of the strongest predictors of richness and community composition, although its high correlation with latitude means that thermal effects cannot be separated from other latitudinally structured processes. Sediment properties were also important, particularly sediment heterogeneity, which was consistently positively associated with richness. Nutrients and water-column physicochemical variables, including salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH, had more group-specific effects on richness but contributed more clearly to shifts in community composition with latitude and taxon-level abundances. Over the latitudinal gradient, differences in habitat conditions may have contributed to these observed patterns. Compared with higher-latitude temperate estuaries, lower-latitude tropical estuaries tended to have more heterogeneous sediments but lower nutrient levels, lower dissolved oxygen and lower pH, suggesting that warmer environments were associated with less favourable benthic habitat. These findings show that estuarine benthic eukaryotic diversity does not necessarily follow classical tropical-richness expectations, but instead reflects interactions between large-scale gradients, local sediment habitat conditions, and taxon-specific environmental responses. More broadly, our results suggest that warming and changes in sediment dynamics could reduce benthic biodiversity and compromise the habitat quality and functioning of estuarine ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08520","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Butterfly abundances but not patch occupancy buffered by vegetation heterogeneity during climatic extremes","authors":"Natalie E. van Dis,&nbsp;Mirkka M. Jones,&nbsp;Pekka Niittynen,&nbsp;Miska Luoto,&nbsp;Jukka Sirén,&nbsp;Marjo Saastamoinen","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08686","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08686","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As extreme climatic events are becoming more frequent, we need to understand what mechanisms could buffer populations to ensure their persistence. Fragmented populations may be especially vulnerable, as exemplified by species with metapopulation dynamics whose persistence is determined by a precarious balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations of interconnected habitat patches. We investigated whether variation in vegetation productivity between and within habitat patches can buffer metapopulation dynamics in years of drought. Using 24 years of long-term monitoring data from the Glanville fritillary butterfly <i>Melitaea cinxia</i> for over 4000 patches, we modelled butterfly patch occupancy and abundance dynamics as a function of vegetation productivity and its heterogeneity during the growing season, using yearly normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) estimated from satellite data. We then tested whether these vegetation heterogeneity effects differed between years depending on the magnitude of drought, measured as cumulative climatic water balance. Across years, butterfly occupancy was consistently highest in patches with low to intermediate vegetation productivity. However, for occupied patches, the effects of vegetation heterogeneity on butterfly abundances differed between years, showing opposite trends in dry versus wet years. In drier years, butterflies tended to be more abundant in patches of higher mean productivity, but this trend was not robust to estimate uncertainty. In contrast, in wet years and robust to estimate uncertainty, abundances tended to increase with higher levels of within-patch vegetation heterogeneity. These results indicate that patch occupancy and abundance dynamics could become decoupled, with chances of occupancy remaining unchanged despite variation in the conditions that promote local population growth during more extreme years. Nevertheless, our results suggest that vegetation heterogeneity can create enough variation in local population dynamics to support the metapopulation during extreme years. The type of vegetation heterogeneity needed for this support, however, varies with the type of climatic perturbation.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08686","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increase in plant productivity in the tundra in Sweden is not related to increasing presence of warm-adapted vascular plant species","authors":"Tim Horstkotte,&nbsp;Jakob Assmann,&nbsp;Henrik Hedenås,&nbsp;Signe Normand,&nbsp;Johan Olofsson","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the past decades, Arctic and alpine biomes have warmed faster than the global average. Substantial vegetation changes have been reported as a response to this warming, including increased productivity and the spread of warm-adapted (thermophilic) species that are less resistant to grazing pressure into higher latitudes and altitudes. At a local and regional level, however, reported vegetation changes are much more variable. Here, we investigate community changes of vascular plant species in the mountain tundra in Sweden during the period 2003 to 2020 by combining remote sensing and vegetation monitoring at 419 permanent plots. We first investigated changes in vegetation productivity by analysing the trend in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We then used plot averages of species-specific environmental indicators weighted by species occurrences to test whether the vegetation changed towards a more thermophilic state with a decreased resistance to grazing by mammalian herbivores during that time. We found an increase in vegetation productivity in ca 23% of the sites, and no trend in ca 55% of the sites. There was no general trend towards an increased thermophilization of vascular plant communities. Furthermore, at the plot scale, the change in NDVI during the study period was not explained by thermophilization of the plant community. However, warm-adapted forbs increased more than cold-adapted species. We conclude that, although part of the vascular vegetation is getting more thermophilic, the observed increase in vegetation productivity during the last two decades is not driven by an increase in warm-adapted species. We also suggest that reindeer grazing, which occurs in almost the entire study region, contributes to the preservation of cold-adapted Arctic–alpine biodiversity by selectively feeding on warm-adapted vascular species.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149100690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}