{"title":"Non‐stationary forest responses to hotter droughts: a temporal perspective considering the role of past legacies","authors":"Xavier Serra‐Maluquer, Julen Astigarraga, César Morales-Molino, Paloma Ruiz-Benito","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07740","url":null,"abstract":"Global change is altering forests worldwide, with multiple consequences for ecosystem functioning. Temporal changes in climate, and extreme, compounded weather events like hotter droughts are affecting the demography, composition and function of forests, leading to a highly uncertain future. To accurately predict future forest responses to hotter droughts, we highlight the need for considering a broad temporal perspective. So far, most ecological studies do not integrate different timespans and temporal resolutions, making it difficult to assess two critical time‐related aspects of forest responses to hotter droughts: the legacies of past disturbances (i.e. the effect of past events on current responses) and their role in non‐stationary responses (i.e. changing effects over time). To incorporate the effect of past hotter droughts on today's forest distribution, structure, composition and function, we identify and define key forcings and forest responses operating across three key timescales, ranging from hours to millennia. First, the shortest timescale considered (i.e. from hours to a decade) usually addresses physiological processes as well as individual tree and population performance. Second, the intermediate timescale (i.e. from decades to centuries) encompasses changes in community composition, stand structure and forest dynamics. Last, the longest timescale (i.e. from centuries to millennia) is crucial for understanding biogeographical processes that shape current species and trait pools. Then, we assess how the contrasting timespans and temporal resolutions used by different ecological subfields and approaches provide critical insights into characterising and understanding the influence of past events on ongoing responses to hotter droughts. We conclude that the holistic view gained from integrating disciplines with complementary temporal perspectives will result in a more comprehensive understanding of forest functioning and we provide a roadmap for achieving this, thereby improving our ability to predict forest responses to climate change.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144334951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-19DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07335
Jussi Mäkinen, Laura Antão, Janne Heliölä, Mikko Kuussaari, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Ida‐Maria Huikkonen, Reima Leinonen, Juha Pöyry, Tomas Roslin
{"title":"The pace and drivers of community change vary over space and time – findings from a national biomonitoring programme","authors":"Jussi Mäkinen, Laura Antão, Janne Heliölä, Mikko Kuussaari, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Ida‐Maria Huikkonen, Reima Leinonen, Juha Pöyry, Tomas Roslin","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07335","url":null,"abstract":"Habitat heterogeneity and demographic processes create variability in the major taxonomic diversity trends: 1) biotic homogenization and 2) the emergence of novel community compositions. Nonetheless, little is known about how the imprints of environmental filtering and random demographic processes on community dissimilarity vary over 1) time or 2) space. Quantifying such variation is key to revealing temporal regime shifts, latitudinal trends, and site‐level specificity in the drivers of community dissimilarity.To characterise variation in drivers of community change, we introduce the concept of ‘non‐stationary community responses'. We then apply this concept to estimate temporal and spatial variability in the imprints of climate, land cover and random processes on spatial and temporal dissimilarity of community composition. As a model system, we use multidecadal monitoring data of bird (1147 monitoring sites; 49 years), butterfly (101 monitoring sites; 22 years), and moth (99 monitoring sites; 26 years) communities across a 1200‐km latitudinal gradient in Finland.Regarding spatial dissimilarity, environmental filtering had a larger imprint than what random processes had. For butterflies and moths, environmental filtering shifted from being primarily associated with land cover to being primarily associated with climate indicating a likely regime shift along with warming climate. Regarding temporal dissimilarity of bird and butterfly communities, the imprints of environmental filtering and random processes varied between monitoring sites. A conventional stationary model was unable to track such site‐specific processes. The imprints did not change linearly along a latitudinal gradient.Our results demonstrate that accounting for non‐stationarity in community dynamics is needed to pinpoint temporal shifts and spatial variability in the drivers of community change. Should we assume that community change is driven by the same primary forces at all times and everywhere, then we will fail to detect the real local and contemporary drivers of change, and risk applying the wrong corrective measures.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"147 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144328522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-19DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07674
Carson P. Hedberg, Felisa A. Smith
{"title":"Unraveling the role of environmental and anthropogenic drivers in shaping global patterns in mammal diversity","authors":"Carson P. Hedberg, Felisa A. Smith","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07674","url":null,"abstract":"Patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity reflect ecological and evolutionary relationships among taxa, and thus can offer key insights into the mechanisms underlying species distributions. However, disentangling the relative influence of proximate environmental drivers versus biogeographic evolutionary history can be a challenge. Moreover, human activities have enormously impacted the global distribution of mammals over the past millennia, potentially skewing our understanding of the underlying processes influencing biodiversity accumulation and community structure. Here, we investigated how the environment shapes global patterns in terrestrial mammal diversity, and how anthropogenic impacts have altered our understanding of these mechanisms. To distinguish aspects of mammal diversity most directly influenced by proximate environmental conditions, we employed novel metrics representing the deviation between functional and phylogenetic diversity. We calculated these residual functional diversity values using both current mammal distributions and estimated distributions in the absence of human impacts to characterize the effect of anthropogenic diversity loss. Each dataset was then modeled separately as a function of key environmental drivers and compared. We found remarkable variation in residual functional diversity across terrestrial communities, suggesting the environment strongly mediates the relationship between functional and phylogenetic diversity. Specifically, temperature seasonality and evapotranspiration play key roles in shaping global patterns in mammal functional diversity. Critically, the strength of these relationships is dampened by anthropogenic biodiversity loss, which has homogenized functional and phylogenetic community structure across environmental gradients. By disentangling the role of human impacts on both patterns and purported mechanisms of mammal diversity, our results provide a more accurate depiction of the fundamental relationships underlying mammal communities.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"240 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144328523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-19DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07952
Nicholas J. Iacaruso, Olivia P. Reves, Sara J. Merkelz, Cassidy L. Waldrep, Mark A. Davis
{"title":"A systematic review evaluating the performance of eDNA methods relative to conventional methods for biodiversity monitoring","authors":"Nicholas J. Iacaruso, Olivia P. Reves, Sara J. Merkelz, Cassidy L. Waldrep, Mark A. Davis","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07952","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid adoption of environmental DNA (eDNA) methods has drastically changed biodiversity monitoring efforts. It is often claimed that eDNA methods are more sensitive and efficient than conventional biodiversity monitoring methods, but it is often unclear what metrics support this claim. There have been many direct comparative studies between eDNA and conventional methods; several supporting the increased sensitivity and efficiency of eDNA methods, others finding the opposite.Here, we systematically review all comparative studies between eDNA and conventional methods published between 2008 and 2023. We review various metrics used to evaluate the relative performance of eDNA methods and whether study characteristics influenced comparative outcomes. We found that eDNA is more likely to provide increased estimates of sensitivity metrics (i.e. species richness and detection probability) and lower estimates of efficiency metrics (i.e. cost and sampling time/effort). However, eDNA methods displayed their own biases, often recovering communities distinct from those revealed via conventional methods. While eDNA methods were capable of describing abundance and improving taxonomic resolution, we observed substantial variation. Trends in comparative outcomes were consistent across study characteristics, but we highlight areas that have received little exploration into the relative performance of eDNA, including across much of the Global South and the ability of eDNA to monitor temporal changes in biodiversity. Our review provides a comprehensive examination of eDNA comparative studies and delivers clarity to conservation professionals on where, when, and how eDNA methods are likely to add value to biodiversity monitoring initiatives.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"624 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144328638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-14DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07717
Peter J. Williams, Shannon R. Curley
{"title":"Functional and phylogenetic convergence of winter and breeding bird communities in the northeastern US","authors":"Peter J. Williams, Shannon R. Curley","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07717","url":null,"abstract":"Around the world, ecological communities are becoming more similar to one another in a process known as biotic homogenization – an increase in similarity among communities over time. While biotic homogenization has been widely studied among spatial communities, very little attention has been paid to beta diversity between seasonal communities, especially in terms of functional or phylogenetic diversity. In temperate ecosystems, seasonality plays a major role in structuring ecological communities, but anthropogenic pressures are altering community composition. We analyze 40 years of data to study changes in beta diversity between winter and breeding bird communities in the northeastern US. We find evidence of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional homogenization between winter and breeding bird communities driven by decreasing turnover. Changes in phylogenetic diversity largely mirrored changes in taxonomic diversity, but functional diversity did not, with functional richness increasing in both seasons despite species richness increasing only in winter. Functional homogenization was driven by 1) decreasing occurrence of winter boreal finches and breeding season aerial insectivores, which reduced the functional space unique to either season, and 2) increasing occurrence of raptors, mergansers, wild turkey, and other functionally distinct species, which expanded the total functional space of both seasons and the shared functional space between seasons. Together, these shifts demonstrate a decline in the distinctiveness of functional space between seasons. Our study is one of the first to describe functional and phylogenetic homogenization between seasons and highlights the importance of considering seasonal homogenization and of using multiple facets of diversity to describe and understand biotic homogenization.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144289824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-12DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07801
Sara Ryding, Alexandra McQueen, Matthew R.E. Symonds, Glenn J. Tattersall, Victorian Wader Study Group, Australasian Wader Studies Group, Danny I. Rogers, Robyn Atkinson, Roz Jessop, Chris J. Hassell, Maureen Christie, Tobias A. Ross, Marcel Klaassen
{"title":"Shape‐shifting in relative wing length of juvenile shorebirds: no evidence of developmental temperatures driving morphological changes","authors":"Sara Ryding, Alexandra McQueen, Matthew R.E. Symonds, Glenn J. Tattersall, Victorian Wader Study Group, Australasian Wader Studies Group, Danny I. Rogers, Robyn Atkinson, Roz Jessop, Chris J. Hassell, Maureen Christie, Tobias A. Ross, Marcel Klaassen","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07801","url":null,"abstract":"Morphological changes concurrent with climate change are increasingly identified in birds, often through decreasing body size and increasing appendage size. Such changes could have thermoregulatory implications, through the improved surface area to body ratio they provide. Due to the role of bird wings in thermoregulation, wing length relative to body mass may be changing as another form of shape‐shifting, where increased relative wing length may facilitate increased heat loss as climates warm. We investigated changes in relative wing length on a dataset of nearly 20 000 juvenile shorebirds from 11 species over the past four decades, to determine changes in morphology and whether these are linked to developmental temperatures. Overall, across species, we found that relative wing length increased across the 43‐year study period in populations migrating to tropical northern Australia but not in those migrating to temperate southern Australia. Furthermore, we found that changes in relative wing length were not driven by immediate responses to high temperature at the breeding ground during juvenile growth. These results may suggest that relative wing length increases occur in shorebirds occupying already warm climates, where they might potentially be more thermally challenged under further warming, but that such changes are not occurring through plastic mechanisms during development.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144278240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-09DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07723
Jonathan C. P. Reum, James T. Thorson, Cynthia Yeung, Kerim Aydin
{"title":"Assessing benthos through predator stomach contents: spatiotemporal modeling of abundance and habitat use","authors":"Jonathan C. P. Reum, James T. Thorson, Cynthia Yeung, Kerim Aydin","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07723","url":null,"abstract":"In shelf ecosystems, benthic invertebrates facilitate nutrient recycling and the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels. However, large-scale monitoring through direct sampling (e.g. using benthic grabs or bottom trawls) can be costly in terms of time and labor. Here, we demonstrate a method for developing standardized abundance indices of forage groups (i.e. species or functional groups preyed upon by predators) based on predator stomach contents. The modeling approach is analogous to methods for estimating abundance indices from fisheries catch-per-unit-effort data; accounts for predator species- and size-specific differences in forage group selectivities, which may vary over space; and permits index estimation when diets are unevenly sampled over space, time, and across predator species. We apply the model to four decades of groundfish diet data from the eastern Bering Sea and estimate abundance indices for nine benthic forage groups. The fitted models were then used to generate: 1) time-averaged maps of relative biomass density for forage groups and demarcation of potential core habitat areas; 2) region-wide biomass index time series; and 3) an assessment of bioregions based on benthic forage community composition and change in bioregion area over time. Diet-based biomass densities were on average correlated well with densities obtained from direct sampling (bottom trawl) for species of <i>Chionoecetes</i> crabs (0.61–0.69). Correlations for polychaetes and bivalves, which had fewer direct survey samples (benthic grabs) were also positive but weaker (0.45 and 0.20, respectively), potentially reflecting larger differences in selectivities between predators and sampling gear or sampling error. We argue that diet data can provide an additional and cost-efficient lens through which abundances of forage species can be quantified and aid efforts to monitor change in marine ecosystems. Abundance indices can be used in subsequent whole-of-ecosystem models, and habitat utilization maps can be used to inform spatial management decisions.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144260071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-09DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07815
Jessica M. Guezen, Madhur Anand
{"title":"Combined effects of temperature change and natural habitat on the abundance of arthropod trait syndromes in agroecosystems","authors":"Jessica M. Guezen, Madhur Anand","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07815","url":null,"abstract":"Land‐use changes and climatic changes are two entwined stressors on ecosystems. Studies on such interactions often focus on species‐level or region‐specific responses, but fewer have examined differences in responses based on functional traits. Here we examine the influence of natural habitat cover and temperature change on the abundance of all arthropods and on the abundance of pollinator, pest and natural enemy trait syndromes (based on diet breadth, habitat breadth and dispersal mode) in arthropod communities within European agroecosystems. Using a previously compiled dataset along with historical climatic data, we found that all arthropods, diet generalist pollinators and habitat generalist pests were more abundant in sites with a high amount of natural habitat regardless of temperature changes experienced. For diet specialist pollinators, natural habitat and temperature change antagonistically influenced abundance; high amounts of natural habitat in landscapes appeared to mitigate the negative effects of increasing temperature extremes. Habitat specialist pest abundance was higher in sites that experienced greater increases in mean annual temperature, regardless of natural habitat cover. Natural enemies appeared to be more abundant in sites that experienced greater increases in temperature variation. For natural enemies that were flight‐dispersing and habitat generalists this was regardless of natural habitat cover, while for ground‐dispersing natural enemies, temperature change and high natural habitat cover appeared to benefit habitat generalists (ground beetles) and specialists (primarily spiders). Given the variability in responses we observed between different arthropods based on diet breadth, habitat specialism, dispersal ability and functional group, we conclude that functional approaches examining impacts of qualitatively different stressors can help inform future conservation actions or mitigation efforts.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144237722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-09DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07775
Erola Fenollosa, Sean E. H. Pang, Natalie J. Briscoe, Antoine Guisan, Roberto Salguero-Gómez
{"title":"Powerful yet challenging: mechanistic niche models for predicting invasive species potential distribution under climate change","authors":"Erola Fenollosa, Sean E. H. Pang, Natalie J. Briscoe, Antoine Guisan, Roberto Salguero-Gómez","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07775","url":null,"abstract":"Risk assessments of invasive species present one of the most challenging applications of species distribution models (SDMs) due to the fundamental issues of distributional disequilibrium, niche changes, and truncation. Invasive species often occupy only a fraction of their potential environmental and geographic ranges, as their spatiotemporal dynamics are shaped by intraspecific variability, human‐mediated introductions, novel biotic interactions, climate change, rapid selection, and ecological niche shifts. Traditional correlative SDMs struggle to capture these processes because they implicitly assume distributions are at equilibrium and rely on observed occurrences that seldom represent the full environmental niche of invasive species. Predicting future potential distributions therefore requires moving beyond simple climate‐matching approaches to models that explicitly capture the mechanisms underlying species responses to their environment. Mechanistic niche models (MNMs) are process‐explicit models that address these limitations by capturing species' performance across environmental gradients. By incorporating physiological constraints and vital rates, MNMs offer a mechanistic understanding of species‐environment relationships and enable more robust predictions onto novel environments. However, a unified MNM framework remains elusive. In this review, we delve into the theoretical foundations of MNMs, emphasizing their advantages over correlative approaches, focusing on invasive species. We provide insights into diverse modelling techniques across taxa and examine the benefits and limitations of MNMs for predicting species distributions under novel conditions. Our systematic review reveals that MNMs have been applied sparingly to invasive species, focusing primarily on insects and plants, likely due to high data requirements. MNMs constitute the most suitable approach for defining species distribution limits under novel conditions, but their success depends on the relevance of input data and effective parameterisation, including genotype selection, model type, experimental conditions and physiological curve‐fitting techniques. MNMs offer significant potential for advancing ecological research and providing robust tools for evidence‐based management decisions for populations in disequilibrium under changing environmental conditions.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144237723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EcographyPub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1002/ecog.07737
Ryosuke Iritani, Vicente J. Ontiveros, David Alonso, José A. Capitán, William Godsoe, Shinichi Tatsumi
{"title":"Jaccard dissimilarity in stochastic community models based on the species-independence assumption","authors":"Ryosuke Iritani, Vicente J. Ontiveros, David Alonso, José A. Capitán, William Godsoe, Shinichi Tatsumi","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07737","url":null,"abstract":"A fundamental problem in ecology is understanding the changes in species composition among sites (i.e. beta-diversity). It is unclear how spatial heterogeneity in species occupancy across sites shapes patterns of beta-diversity. To address this question, we develop probabilistic models that consider two spatial or temporal sites, where presence probabilities vary both among species and between the sites. We derive analytical and approximate formulae for the expectation of pairwise beta-diversity. Using a graphical tool, stochastic incidence plots (SIPs), which depict the presence probabilities in two sites along species labels, we develop a means to conceptualize the heterogeneity in presence probabilities: the steepness or unevenness of SIPs reflects species-level heterogeneity, while the degree of overlap between SIPs indicates site-level heterogeneity. We find that when SIPs completely overlap (i.e. two sites have the same presence probability for each species), flat SIPs - with all species having the same presence probability - maximize the expected beta-diversity. We refer to this prediction as the ‘transfer principle for beta'. Second, using SIPs and the probabilistic method in a two-species scenario, we demonstrate that beta-diversity is lower when SIPs are parallel compared to when they are anti-parallel. We also find that this prediction is consistent with the well-known checkerboard pattern in incidence matrices. Finally, we apply the method to the species distribution models for five woodpecker species in Switzerland, showing that their spatial distributions will change significantly. Overall, this work improves our understanding of how pairwise beta-diversity responds to occupancy heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144211029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}