Ecography最新文献

{"title":"Macroecological patterns of rodent population dynamics shaped by bioclimatic gradients","authors":"Eeva M. Soininen, Magnus Magnusson, Jane U. Jepsen, Nina E. Eide, Nigel G. Yoccoz, Anders Angerbjörn, Jo Inge Breisjøberget, Frauke Ecke, Dorothee Ehrich, Erik Framstad, Heikki Henttonen, Birger Hörnfeldt, Siw Killengreen, Johan Olofsson, Lauri Oksanen, Tarja Oksanen, Ole Einar Tveito, Rolf A. Ims","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07058","url":null,"abstract":"Long‐term studies of cyclic rodent populations have contributed fundamentally to the development of population ecology. Pioneering rodent studies have shown macroecological patterns of population dynamics in relation to latitude and have inspired similar studies in several other taxa. Nevertheless, such studies have not been able to disentangle the role of different environmental variables in shaping the macroecological patterns. We collected rodent time‐series from 26 locations spanning 10 latitudinal degrees in the tundra biome of Fennoscandia and assessed how population dynamics characteristics of the most prevalent species varied with latitude and environmental variables. While we found no relationship between latitude and population cycle peak interval, other characteristics of population dynamics showed latitudinal patterns. The environmental predictor variables provided insight into causes of these patterns, as 1) increased proportion of optimal habitat in the landscape led to higher density amplitudes in all species and 2) mid‐winter climate variability lowered the amplitude in Norwegian lemmings and grey‐sided voles. These results indicate that biome‐scale climate and landscape change can be expected to have profound impacts on rodent population cycles and that the macro‐ecology of such functionally important tundra ecosystem characteristics is likely to be subjected to transient dynamics.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142888927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal changes in taxon abundances are positively correlated but poorly predicted at the global scale","authors":"Gavia Lertzman‐Lepofsky, Aleksandra J. Dolezal, Mia Tayler Waters, Alexandre Fuster‐Calvo, Emily N. Black, Stephanie Flaman, Sam Straus, Ryan E. Langendorf, Isaac Eckert, Sophia Fan, Haley A. Branch, Nathalie Isabelle Chardon, Courtney G. Collins","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07195","url":null,"abstract":"Linking changes in taxon abundance to biotic and abiotic drivers over space and time is critical for understanding biodiversity responses to global change. Furthermore, deciphering temporal trends in relationships among taxa, including correlated abundance changes (e.g. synchrony), can facilitate predictions of future shifts. However, what drives these correlated changes over large scales are complex and understudied, impeding our ability to predict shifts in ecological communities. We used two global datasets containing abundance time‐series (BioTIME) and biotic interactions (GloBI) to quantify correlations among yearly changes in the abundance of pairs of geographically proximal taxa (genus pairs). We used a hierarchical linear model and cross‐validation to test the overall magnitude, direction and predictive accuracy of correlated abundance changes among genera at the global scale. We then tested how correlated abundance changes are influenced by latitude, biotic interactions, disturbance and time‐series length while accounting for differences among studies and taxonomic categories. We found that abundance changes between genus pairs are, on average, positively correlated over time, suggesting synchrony at the global scale. Furthermore, we found that abundance changes are more positively correlated with longer time‐series, with known biotic interactions and in disturbed habitats. However, the magnitude of these ecological drivers alone are relatively weak, with model predictive accuracy increasing approximately two‐fold with the inclusion of study identity and taxonomic category. This suggests that while patterns in abundance correlations are shaped by ecological drivers at the global scale, these drivers have limited utility in forecasting changes in abundances among unknown taxa or in the context of future global change. Our study indicates that including taxonomy and known ecological drivers can improve predictions of biodiversity loss over large spatial and temporal scales, but also that idiosyncrasies of different studies continue to weaken our ability to make global predictions.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142888321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating a physiological threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts","authors":"Julia Indivero, Sean C. Anderson, Lewis A. K. Barnett, Timothy E. Essington, Eric J. Ward","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07413","url":null,"abstract":"Species distribution modeling is increasingly used to describe and anticipate consequences of a warming ocean. These models often identify statistical associations between distribution and environmental conditions such as temperature and oxygen, but rarely consider the mechanisms by which these environmental variables affect metabolism. Oxygen and temperature jointly govern the balance of oxygen supply to oxygen demand, and theory predicts thresholds below which population densities are diminished. However, parameterizing models with this joint dependence is challenging because of the paucity of experimental work for most species, and the limited applicability of experimental findings in situ. Here we ask whether the temperature-sensitivity of oxygen can be reliably inferred from species distribution observations in the field, using the U.S. Pacific Coast as a model system. We developed a statistical model that adapted the metabolic index — a compound metric that incorporates these joint effects on the ratio of oxygen supply and oxygen demand by applying an Arrhenius equation — and used a non-linear threshold function to link the index to fish distribution. Through simulation testing, we found that our statistical model could not precisely estimate the parameters due to inherent features of the distribution data. However, the model reliably estimated an overall metabolic index threshold effect. When applied to case studies of real data for two groundfish species, this new model provided a better fit to spatial distribution of one species, sablefish <i>Anoplopoma fimbria</i>, than previously used models, but did not for the other, longspine thornyhead <i>Sebastolobus altivelis</i>. This physiological framework may improve predictions of species distribution, even in novel environmental conditions. Further efforts to combine insights from physiology and realized species distributions will improve forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Model‐based impact analysis of climate change and land‐use intensification on trophic networks","authors":"Christian Neumann, Tuanjit Sritongchuay, Ralf Seppelt","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07533","url":null,"abstract":"There is well‐established evidence that land use is the main driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss. In contrast, the combined effects of land‐use and climate changes on food webs, particularly on terrestrial trophic networks, are understudied. In this study, we investigate the combined effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation) and land‐use intensification on food webs using a process‐based general mechanistic ecosystem model (‘MadingleyR'). We simulated the ecosystem dynamics of four regions in different climatic zones (Brazil, Namibia, Finland and France) according to trait‐based functional groups of species (ectothermic and endothermic herbivores, carnivores and omnivores). The simulation results were consistent across the selected regions, with land‐use intensification negatively affecting endotherms, whereas ectotherms were under increased pressure from rising temperatures. Land‐use intensification led to the downsizing of endotherms, and thus, to smaller organisms in the food web. In combination with climate change, land‐use intensification had the greatest effect on higher trophic levels, culminating in the extinction of endothermic carnivores in Namibia and Finland and endothermic omnivores in Namibia. Arid and tropical regions showed a slightly higher response of total biomass to climate change under a high‐emissions scenario with rising temperatures, whereas areas with low net primary productivity showed the most negative response to land‐use intensification. Our results suggest that 1) further land‐use intensification will significantly affect larger organisms and predators, leading to a major restructuring of global food webs. 2) Arid low‐productivity regions will experience significant changes in community composition due to global change. 3) Climate changes appear to have slightly greater effects in tropical and arid climates, whereas land‐use intensification tends to affect less productive environments. This paper shows how general ecosystem models deepen our understanding of multitrophic interactions and how climate change or land‐use drivers affect ecosystems in different biomes.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142841451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates","authors":"Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Casey Visintin, Trent D. Penman","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07502","url":null,"abstract":"Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of these complex interactions for different plant functional types under future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species across two functional plant types, obligate seeder and facultative resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over 7000 km² in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes under six different future climates representing different temperature and precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire management prioritisation for species into the future.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating fine-scale behaviour and microclimate data into biophysical models highlights the risk of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration","authors":"Shannon R. Conradie, Blair O. Wolf, Susan J. Cunningham, Amanda Bourne, Tanja van de Ven, Amanda R. Ridley, Andrew E. McKechnie","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07432","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change threatens biodiversity by compromising the ability to balance energy and water, influencing animal behaviour, species interactions, distribution and ultimately survival. Predicting climate change effects on thermal physiology is complicated by interspecific variation in thermal tolerance limits, thermoregulatory behaviour and heterogenous thermal landscapes. We develop an approach for assessing thermal vulnerability for endotherms by incorporating behaviour and microsite data into a biophysical model. We parameterised the model using species-specific functional traits and published behavioural data on hotter (maximum daily temperature, <i>T</i>_max &gt; 35°C) and cooler days (<i>T</i>_max &lt; 35°C). Incorporating continuous time-activity focal observations of behaviour into the biophysical approach reveals that the three insectivorous birds modelled here are at greater risk of lethal hyperthermia than dehydration under climate change, contrary to previous thermal risk assessments. Southern yellow-billed hornbills <i>Tockus leucomelas</i>, southern pied babblers <i>Turdoides bicolor</i> and southern fiscals <i>Lanius collaris</i> are predicted to experience a risk of lethal hyperthermia on ~ 24, 65 and 40 more days year⁻¹, respectively, in 2100 relative to current conditions. Maintaining water balance may also become increasingly challenging. Babblers are predicted to experience a 57% increase (to ~186 days year⁻¹) in exposure to conditions associated with net negative 24 h water balance in the absence of drinking, with ~ 86 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Hornbills and fiscals are predicted to experience ~ 84 and 100 days year⁻¹, respectively, associated with net negative 24 h water balance, with ≤ 20 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Integrating continuous time-activity focal data is vital to understand and predict thermal challenges animals likely experience. We provide a comprehensive thermal risk assessment and emphasise the importance of thermoregulatory and drinking behaviour for endotherm persistence in coming decades.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disturbance drives concordant functional biodiversity shifts across regions: new evidence from river eDNA","authors":"Anran Fan, Steven Ni, Graham A. McCulloch, Jonathan M. Waters","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07264","url":null,"abstract":"Major disturbance events can profoundly influence biodiversity patterns, although the extent to which such shifts are predictable remains poorly understood. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) to compare forested versus recently deforested stream insect communities across disjunct regions of New Zealand, to test for parallel shifts in response to widescale disturbance. Although eDNA analyses revealed highly distinct species pools across regions, they detected concordant functional diversity shifts linked to recent deforestation, including parallel decreases in the diversity of grazing taxa. The finding that taxonomically distinct freshwater biotas have experienced broadly concordant functional shifts in the wake of deforestation indicates that disturbance can drive deterministic ecological change. By contrast, the finding that some closely related species within functional groups show discordant responses to deforestation suggests that ecological differentiation among cryptic taxa may contribute to idiosyncratic shifts. These findings highlight the potential of eDNA for resolving subtle species-level differences among anthropogenically impacted ecological assemblages.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"First records distribution models to guide biosurveillance for non-native species","authors":"Helen R. Sofaer, Demetra A. Williams, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Keana S. Shadwell, Caroline M. Kittle, Ian S. Pearse, Lucas Berio Fortini, Kelsey C. Brock","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07522","url":null,"abstract":"Quickly locating new populations of non-native species can reduce the ecological and economic costs of species invasions. However, the difficulty of predicting which new non-native species will establish, and where, has limited active post-border biosurveillance efforts. Because pathways of introduction underlie spatial patterns of establishment risk, an intuitive approach is to search for new non-native species in areas where many non-native species have first been detected in the past. We formalize this intuition via first records distribution models (FRDMs), which apply species distribution modeling methods to the collection of first occurrence records across species (i.e. one record per species). We define FRDMs as statistical models that quantify environmental conditions associated with species' first naturalized records to predict spatial patterns of establishment risk. We model the first records of non-native plants in the conterminous USA as a proof-of-concept. The novelty of FRDMs is that their inferences apply not just to the species that contributed data; they provide a rigorous framework for predicting hotspots of invasion for new non-native taxa that share a pathway of introduction with the modeled species. FRDMs can guide survey efforts for new non-native taxa at multiple scales and across ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development stage-dependent effects of biodiversity on aboveground biomass of temperate forests","authors":"Wenqiang Gao, Maowei Liang, Wenhua Xiang, Liyong Fu, Hong Guo, Xiao He, Ram P. Sharma, Zhicheng Chen, Yutang Li, Mengli Zhou, Jie Lan, Dongli Gao, Xiangdong Lei","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07414","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing evidence shows that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships (BEFs) become stronger as forests develop, but much of the evidence is drawn from experiments (less than 30 years). How the biodiversity effects vary with stand development stages remains largely unexplored. Using a large temperate forest dataset with 2392 permanent plots in northeastern China, we examined the relationships between biodiversity (i.e. tree species richness, functional diversity, and functional composition) and aboveground biomass (AGB) across different development stages of temperate forests (covering all stages from young to overmature forests). Specifically, the complementarity and mass-ratio effects across different forest development stages were evaluated to elucidate emerging patterns that explain ecosystem functioning. We observed positive BEFs using both tree species richness and functional diversity, but these positive effects decreased with forest development. However, the effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) on AGB showed two peaks in young and mature stands. Interestingly, the effects of CWM on AGB became larger than the effects of functional diversity after the forests developed to near-mature/mature stands, indicating that BEFs are driven by mass-ratio effects (i.e. dominant tree species) rather than niche complementarity in old stands. The high AGB in young stands was characterized by tree species with high resource acquisition ability, however, in old stands, it was associated with tree species with both high resource acquisition ability and conservative traits. Our findings indicate how the developmental stage influences the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning in natural forests. The findings tentatively advocate for a mechanistic framework of BEFs covering all developmental stages of temperate forests, which could facilitate the formulation of effective strategies for enhancing ecosystem functioning at different development stages.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time underlies the origin and maintenance of tropical spider diversity","authors":"Fengyuan Li, Tongyao Jiang, Wei Zhang, Shuqiang Li","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07586","url":null,"abstract":"Relative to its size, tropical Asia is likely to be the richest region in terms of biodiversity. However, the factors of species diversity formation and maintenance in Southeast (SE) Asia and neighboring regions remain poorly understood. Here we infer the evolutionary relationships within psilodercid spiders by incorporating fossil information into a robust, unprecedentedly complete species-level phylogeny of 202 extant species to explore potential abiotic drivers and ecological features underlying their stable diversification history. The combination of extant and extinct historical biogeographic data indicates that in situ speciation is the predominant form of diversification in tropical Asia but diverse Cretaceous psilodercids in Myanmar ambers were replaced by other biogeographical lineages during the northward movements of the Burma Terrane. Furthermore, our diversification analyses show no diversification rate changes through time and across geographic space in this family, but the genus <i>Althepus</i> displays an accelerated rate of species diversification driven by the remarkable expansion of leg length. Trait evolution analysis shows that ecological trait divergence contributes to the diversification and accumulation of tropical spiders by facilitating species coexistence. These findings provide empirical evidence that the ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time scales is key to forming species diversity hotspots in SE Asia. Thus, this study integrating molecular evidence and paleontological interpretation provides a new framework for understanding the evolution of tropical species diversity.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}