Ecography最新文献

{"title":"Habitat opening fostered diversity: impact of dispersal and habitat-shifts in the evolutionary history of a speciose afrotropical insect group","authors":"Noémie M.-C. Hévin,&nbsp;Paul Z. Goldstein,&nbsp;Kwaku Aduse-Poku,&nbsp;Jérôme Barbut,&nbsp;Andrew Mitchell,&nbsp;Alberto Zilli,&nbsp;Anne-Laure Clamens,&nbsp;Claire Capdevielle-Dulac,&nbsp;Niklas Wahlberg,&nbsp;Bruno P. Le Ru,&nbsp;Gael J. Kergoat","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07258","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07258","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The opening of habitats associated with the emergence of C₄ grasslands during the Neogene had a massive influence on the evolution of plant and animal communities. Strikingly, the impacts of grassland expansion on species diversification in Africa, where the largest surface of grasslands and savannas in the world is located, are not well understood. To explore the impact of habitat opening, we investigate the evolution of noctuid stemborers, a group of moths mostly associated with open habitats, and whose diversity is centered in the Afrotropics. We generate a dated molecular phylogeny for ca 80% of the known stemborer species, and assess the role of habitat opening on the evolutionary trajectory of the group through a combination of parametric historical biogeography, ancestral character state estimation, life history traits and habitat-dependent diversification analyses. Our results support an origin of stemborers in Southern and East Africa ca 20 million years ago (Ma), with range expansions linked to the increased availability of open habitats to act as dispersal corridors, and closed habitats acting as potent barriers to dispersal. Early specialization on open habitats was maintained over time, with shifts towards closed habitats being rare and invariably unidirectional. Analyses of life history traits showed that habitat changes involved specific features likely associated with grassland adaptations, such as variations in larval behavior and color. We compare these findings to those previously inferred for an Afrotropical butterfly group that diversified roughly in parallel with the stemborers but distributed predominantly in closed habitats. Remarkably, these two groups show nearly opposite responses in relation to habitat specialization, whether in terms of biogeographical patterns, or in terms of rates of transition between open and closed habitats. We conclude that habitat opening played a major role in the evolutionary history of Afrotropical lineages through dispersal and adaptation linked to habitat shifts.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07258","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141299131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes of Chinese forest-grassland ecotone in geographical scope and landscape structure from 1990 to 2020","authors":"Jia Guo,&nbsp;Yuehui Li,&nbsp;Wang Ma,&nbsp;Qinghua Guo,&nbsp;Kai Cheng,&nbsp;Jun Ma,&nbsp;Zhengwen Wang","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07296","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07296","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forest–grassland ecotone (FGE) has essential ecological and economic value. Unfortunately, it is impacted greatly by environmental changes and anthropogenic disturbance, and is considered one of the most severely threatened biomes in China. To protect Chinese FGE, identifying its exact boundary and exploring its landscape structure dynamic are badly needed, especially on nationwide scale at one-year temporal resolution. Here, we mapped the annual FGE distribution of China from 1990 to 2020, investigated its changing trends of area, location and landscape patterns, and revealed the underlying driving factors. Our results showed that FGE area over the 31 years totaled 1 011 870 km², covering about 10.54% of China's land. The FGE area first increased from 1990 and peaked in 1999, and then kept decreasing until 2020. The FGE gravity center has moved accumulatively 590.15 km over the 31 years, with the net moving distance of 228.76 km southwestward. From 1990 to 2020, forest area increased continuously while grassland and cropland area decreased, but these three landscape types had been dominating the FGE. The increase in forest area was largely converted from grassland. The decline in grassland mainly resulted from its conversion into cropland and forest. Meanwhile, the conversion of cropland to grassland supplemented grassland loss to a certain extent. At landscape level, the total area with decreased fragmentation is larger than that with increased fragmentation. Returning Farmland to Grassland Project and land reclamation were primary drivers for changes of fragmentation in the northern and middle part of the FGE, while temperature and precipitation were primary drivers in southern part. Our results will improve the understanding into the dynamic trends of distribution and pattern of FGE at nationwide scale, and thus help to optimize the designing of ecological projects and protective schemes for FGE as a unique and integral biome.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07296","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141299172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macroecological patterns of functional and phylogenetic diversity vary between ground and arboreal assemblages in Neotropical savanna ants","authors":"Karen C. Neves,&nbsp;Alan N. Andersen,&nbsp;Ted R. Schultz,&nbsp;Heraldo L. Vasconcelos","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07122","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07122","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Macroscale environmental gradients can have contrasting effects on organisms that occupy different vertical niches, but we have little understanding of how this might result in different macroscale diversity patterns in ground and arboreal communities. We also have little understanding of how different dimensions of diversity, such as functional and phylogenetic diversity, vary along macroscale environmental gradients. Here we examine latitudinal and elevational patterns of different dimensions of diversity for both ground and arboreal assemblages in Neotropical savanna ants. The study was based on ant species occurring at 32 sites covering a 22° range of latitude and &gt; 1000 m range in elevation in Brazil. Functional and phylogenetic richness were positively correlated with species richness, all increasing with latitude. However, the greater phylogenetic richness on the ground than in trees did not simply reflect differences in species richness. The mean functional and phylogenetic divergence among species was also greater on the ground than in trees, indicating a stronger role of competition. Both mean functional and phylogenetic divergence showed negative correlations with elevation in trees but not on the ground. In trees, the standardized effect size (taking into account differences in species richness) of mean functional divergence was negatively related to elevation and mean phylogenetic divergence was negatively related to both latitude and elevation. These findings suggest that as temperature decreases the relative importance of environmental filtering in arboreal but not ground communities increases (and that of competition and niche partitioning decreases). Overall, we show that the macroecological patterns of ant species richness that have previously been reported for Brazilian savannas do not adequately represent other dimensions of diversity, and that the representativeness differs between vertical strata. Macroecological patterns of functional and phylogenetic divergence indicate that the relative importance of competition and environmental filtering also differs between vertical strata.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07122","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the influence of neighborhood connectivity and habitat effects in dynamic occupancy species distribution models","authors":"Oriol Solà,&nbsp;Núria Aquilué,&nbsp;Sara Fraixedas,&nbsp;Lluís Brotons","doi":"10.1111/ecog.06985","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.06985","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploring new approaches and methodologies to characterize species distribution dynamics, instead of solely relying on static spatial patterns, should be a priority for species distribution modelling research. Dynamic occupancy models (here, ‘dynocc models') are a promising tool to capture temporal patterns of distribution change but their spatial accuracy has been shown to be limited. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of incorporating neighborhood connectivity effects into the colonization and extinction functions of dynocc models. To accomplish this, we compared dynocc models accounting either for neighborhood connectivity only, for site-level habitat covariates only, or combining both neighborhood and habitat explanations in the models for species extinction and colonization. All models were evaluated for a total of 46 bird species typical of forests and shrublands using data at 1 km² scale from two Catalan breeding bird atlases (CBBA2: 1999–2002 and CBBA3: 2015–2018). Models' predictive performance varied across species between dynocc models incorporating habitat covariates alone and those considering neighborhood connectivity alone. Among species, 68% exhibited a predominant response to habitat effects, 24% showed similar responses for habitat and connectivity effects, and 9% were mostly associated with connectivity effects. Dynocc models combining connectivity and habitat covariates achieved the best predictive performance for most species, with bigger gains for species with similar results from habitat-only and connectivity-only models. However, relative performance gains compared to dynocc models using only habitat or connectivity variables were generally modest for most species. This study shows the benefits of considering more spatially explicit formulations in dynocc models, specifically incorporating neighborhood connectivity into the extinction and colonization processes. Our work also highlights the importance of evaluating different model formulations and assessing which aspects of the model are more important depending on the study species.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.06985","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141177854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Habitat suitability models reveal the spatial signal of environmental DNA in riverine networks","authors":"Jeanine Brantschen,&nbsp;Fabian Fopp,&nbsp;Antoine Adde,&nbsp;François Keck,&nbsp;Antoine Guisan,&nbsp;Loïc Pellissier,&nbsp;Florian Altermatt","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07267","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07267","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rapid loss of biodiversity in freshwater systems asks for a robust and spatially explicit understanding of species' occurrences. As two complementing approaches, habitat suitability models provide information about species' potential occurrence, while environmental DNA (eDNA) based assessments provide indication of species' actual occurrence. Individually, both approaches are used in ecological studies to characterize biodiversity, yet they are rarely combined. Here, we integrated high-resolution habitat suitability models with eDNA-based assessments of aquatic invertebrates in riverine networks to understand their individual and combined capacity to inform on species' occurrence. We used eDNA sampling data from 172 river sites and combined the detection of taxa from three insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera; hereafter EPT) with suitable habitat predictions at a subcatchment level (2 km²). Overall, we find congruence of habitat suitability and eDNA-based detections. Yet, the models predicted suitable habitats beyond the number of detections by eDNA sampling, congruent with the suitable niche being larger than the realized niche. For local mismatches, where eDNA detected a species but the habitat was not predicted suitable, we calculated the minimal distance to upstream suitable habitat patches, indicating possible sources of eDNA signals from upstream sites subsequently being transported along the water flow. We estimated a median distance of 1.06 km (range 0.2–42 km) of DNA transport based on upstream habitat suitability, and this distance was significantly smaller than expected by null model predictions. This estimated transport distance is in the range of previously reported values and allows extrapolations of transport distances across many taxa and riverine systems. Together, the combination of eDNA and habitat suitability models allows larger scale and spatially integrative inferences about biodiversity, ultimately needed for the management and protection of biodiversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141177867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Big data, big problems? How to circumvent problems in biodiversity mapping and ensure meaningful results","authors":"Alice C. Hughes,&nbsp;James B. Dorey,&nbsp;Silas Bossert,&nbsp;Huijie Qiao,&nbsp;Michael C. Orr","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07115","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07115","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our knowledge of biodiversity hinges on sufficient data, reliable methods, and realistic models. Without an accurate assessment of species distributions, we cannot effectively target and stem biodiversity loss. Species range maps are the foundation of such efforts, but countless studies have failed to account for the most basic assumptions of reliable species mapping practices, undermining the credibility of their results and potentially misleading and hindering conservation and management efforts. Here, we use examples from the recent literature and broader conservation community to highlight the substantial shortfalls in current practices and their consequences for both analyses and conservation management. We detail how different decisions on data filtering impact the outcomes of analysis and provide practical recommendations and steps for more reliable analysis, whilst understanding the limits of what available data will reliably allow and what methods are most appropriate. Whilst perfect analyses are not possible for many taxa given limited data, and biases, ensuring we use data within reasonable limits and understanding inherent assumptions is crucial to ensure appropriate use. By embracing and enacting such best practices, we can ensure both the accuracy and improved comparability of biodiversity analyses going forward, ultimately enhancing our ability to use data to facilitate our protection of the natural world.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07115","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141177985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biogeography of larches in eastern Siberia – using single nucleotide polymorphisms derived by genotyping by sequencing","authors":"Sarah Haupt,&nbsp;Nadine Bernhardt,&nbsp;Stefanie Killing,&nbsp;Stefano Meucci,&nbsp;Ulrike Herzschuh,&nbsp;Evgenii S. Zakharov,&nbsp;Dörte Harpke,&nbsp;Luidmila A. Pestryakova,&nbsp;Stefan Kruse","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07092","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07092","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present distribution of Siberian boreal forests that are dominated by larches (<i>Larix</i> spp.) is influenced, to an unknown extent, by glacial history. Knowing the past treeline dynamics can improve our understanding of future treeline shifts under changing climate. Here, we study patterns in the genetic variability of Siberian <i>Larix</i> to help unravel biogeographic migration routes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).</p><p>We infer the spatial distribution and the postglacial demographic history of <i>Larix</i> using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) derived through genotyping by sequencing (GBS) from 130 individuals sampled across eastern Siberia.</p><p>Our analysis gives statistical support for two or three clusters, spanning from western to eastern Siberia. These clusters reveal a genetic structure influenced by isolation resulting from geographical distance, barriers imposed by geographic features, and distinct glacial histories. Assuming three clusters, our demographic inference indicates that the common ancestor of the current <i>Larix</i> populations existed in northeast Siberia well before the LGM. This suggests that <i>Larix</i> persisted in the northern region throughout previous glacials.</p><p>Our genetic studies suggest that <i>Larix</i> likely survived the cold LGM in northern refugia, enabling a fast colonization of Siberia. Instead of complete repopulation from southern areas postglacially, the northernmost <i>Larix</i> expansion during the Holocene seems to have benefitted from refugial populations ahead of the treeline. Present-day migration is expected to be slow initially, due to the absence of current refugial populations in the far north, in contrast to the early-Holocene situation.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07092","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141156555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatially‐nested hierarchical species distribution models to overcome niche truncation in national‐scale studies","authors":"Teresa Goicolea, Antoine Adde, Olivier Broennimann, Juan Ignacio García‐Viñas, Aitor Gastón, María José Aroca‐Fernández, Antoine Guisan, Rubén G. Mateo","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07328","url":null,"abstract":"Spatial truncation in species distribution models (SDMs) might cause niche truncation and model transferability issues, particularly when extrapolating models to non‐analog environmental conditions. While broad calibration extents reduce truncation issues, they usually overlook local ecological factors driving species distributions at finer resolution. Spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs (HSDMs) address truncation by merging (a) a global model calibrated with broadly extended, yet typically low‐resolution, basic, and imprecise data; and (b) a regional model calibrated with spatially restricted but more precise and reliable data. This study aimed to examine HSDMs' efficacy to overcome spatial truncation in national‐scale studies. We compared two hierarchical strategies (‘covariate', which uses the global model output as a covariate for the regional model, and ‘multiply', which calculates the geometric mean of the global and regional models) and a non‐hierarchical strategy. The three strategies were compared in terms of niche truncation, environmental extrapolation, model performance, species' predicted distributions and shifts, and trends in species richness. We examined the consistency of the results over two study areas (Spain and Switzerland), 108 tree species, and four future climate scenarios. Only the non‐hierarchical strategy was susceptible to niche truncation, and environmental extrapolation issues. Hierarchical strategies, particularly the ‘covariate' one, presented greater model accuracy than non‐hierarchical strategies. The non‐hierarchical strategy predicted the highest overall values and the lowest decreases over time in species distribution ranges and richness. Differences between strategies were more evident in Switzerland, which was more affected by niche truncation issues. Spain was more negatively affected by climate change and environmental extrapolation. The ‘covariate' strategy exhibited higher model performance than the ‘multiply' one. However, uncertainties regarding model temporal transferability advocate for adopting and further examining multiple hierarchical approaches. This research underscores the importance of adopting spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs given the compromised reliability of non‐hierarchical approaches due to niche truncation and extrapolation issues.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141079238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Small but connected islands can maintain populations and genetic diversity under climate change","authors":"Matthew M. Smith,&nbsp;Jonathan N. Pauli","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07119","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecog.07119","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In response to the striking effects of environmental change, conservation strategies often include the identification of conservation areas that can effectively maintain vulnerable species. Consequently, identifying system-specific conditions that maintain the demographic and genetic viability of species of conservation concern is essential. Connectivity plays a critical role in the persistence of populations. Islands have been model systems to understand connectivity and metapopulation processes and have emerged as particularly favorable targets for conservation. While islands can be isolated from mainland disturbances, it is unknown what degree of isolation is necessary to avoid unfavorable changes but remain sufficiently connected to maintain population viability. To test this question, we explored connectivity within the Apostle Islands, an archipelago of 22 islands within Lake Superior, by comparing historical and contemporary trends in ice bridge connectivity and by simulating the effect of reduced connectivity within this system. We developed a demographically informed individual-based model to explicitly test the role of connectivity to influence the persistence and genetic diversity of American marten <i>Martes americana</i>, a forest carnivore at risk across its southern range boundary. We found that genetic diversity was resilient to moderate changes in ice cover, but a complete loss of connectivity resulted in rapid genetic erosion. Despite genetic erosion, populations persisted as long as nominal connectivity occurred between islands. Our work suggests that connectivity will decline, but martens would be resilient to moderate changes and, in the short term, the Apostle Islands can act as a refuge along this species' southern range boundary. Identifying thresholds in connectivity that maintain populations but allow for isolation from disturbance will be necessary to identify suitable areas for species conservation across space and time.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2024 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.07119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141069389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can we accurately predict the distribution of soil microorganism presence and relative abundance?","authors":"Valentin Verdon, Lucie Malard, Flavien Collart, Antoine Adde, Erika Yashiro, Enrique Lara Pandi, Heidi Mod, David Singer, Hélène Niculita‐Hirzel, Nicolas Guex, Antoine Guisan","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07086","url":null,"abstract":"Soil microbes play a key role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore essential to understand what drives their distribution. While multivariate analyses have been used to characterise microbial communities and drivers of their spatial patterns, few studies have focused on predicting the distribution of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs). Here, we evaluate the potential of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the presence–absence and relative abundance distribution of bacteria, archaea, fungi, and protist ASVs in the western Swiss Alps. Advanced automated selection of abiotic covariates was used to circumvent the lack of knowledge on the ecology of each ASV. Presence–absence SDMs could be fitted for most ASVs, yielding better predictions than null models. Relative abundance SDMs performed less well, with low fit and predictive power overall, but displayed a good capacity to differentiate between sites with high and low relative abundance of the modelled ASV. SDMs for bacteria and archaea displayed better predictive power than for fungi and protists, suggesting a closer link of the former with the abiotic covariates used. Microorganism distributions were mostly related to edaphic covariates. In particular, pH was the most selected covariate across models. The study shows the potential of using SDM frameworks to predict the distribution of ASVs obtained from topsoil DNA. It also highlights the need for further development of precise edaphic mapping and scenario modelling to enhances prediction of microorganism distributions in the future.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140954142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}