Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献_第3页

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-27

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IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-27

引用次数: 0

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls on East China 热带气旋登陆中国东部的季节统计预报

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-24 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70049

Zawai Luo, Kelvin T. F. Chan, Ziqing Chen, Yue Wu, Lifeng Xu, Weiling Zhang, Oscar Y. W. Cheung, Xiuzhi Chen, Naiming Yuan, Xuelin Zhang

{"title":"Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls on East China","authors":"Zawai Luo, Kelvin T. F. Chan, Ziqing Chen, Yue Wu, Lifeng Xu, Weiling Zhang, Oscar Y. W. Cheung, Xiuzhi Chen, Naiming Yuan, Xuelin Zhang","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has long been a major focus. East China (EC) is a key region that is vulnerable to TC originating from the western North Pacific. In this study, we utilize two reanalysis datasets spanning from 1979 to 2009 and propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model, named the Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) model, to predict the annual TC landfalls on EC based on preseason environmental predictors. Comprehensive predictor sampling and multiple linear regression analysis reveal that the 850-hPa geopotential height over West Asia and South Pacific in February, the 500-hPa geopotential height over West Asia in March, and the 300-hPa geopotential height over North America in April are the key predictors. The correlation coefficient over 1979–2009 between the model results and observations reaches 0.84. The model has been validated by the leave-one-out and threefold cross-validation methods, as well as the recent 15-year observations (2010–2024). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North American pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are proposed to be the possible physical linkages or mechanisms underlying the model. The SYSU model exhibits a 98% hit rate over 1979–2024 (45 out of 46), highlighting the potential for operation.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70049","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148049924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-24

引用次数: 0

Assessment of the ECMWF Data Assimilation System Using Radiosonde Profiles During Atmospheric River Events Over Western Europe 西欧大气河流事件期间利用无线电探空剖面评估ECMWF资料同化系统

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-20 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70034

Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexander Lemburg, David A. Lavers, Ricardo Tomé, Joaquim G. Pinto

{"title":"Assessment of the ECMWF Data Assimilation System Using Radiosonde Profiles During Atmospheric River Events Over Western Europe","authors":"Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexander Lemburg, David A. Lavers, Ricardo Tomé, Joaquim G. Pinto","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are one of the key elements in explaining the occurrence of extreme precipitation and floods in mid-latitudes. Despite the recognised importance of ARs, few studies have systematically evaluated how a weather forecast model captures AR conditions affecting western Europe. Using radiosonde observations from different sites across western Europe, this study evaluates the specific humidity, wind speed and moisture flux in the data assimilation system of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) for the extended winter of 2020/2021 with a particular focus on landfalling ARs. Results indicate a systematic underestimation of specific humidity, wind and moisture flux in the IFS, particularly during more intense moisture flux events. The most significant negative biases of the IFS were observed in the boundary layer (1000–900 hPa) and lower free troposphere (900–700 hPa), coinciding with the core region of moisture flux. Wind speed was generally underestimated, with the largest errors occurring in the boundary layer at locations with complex topography. In addition, as expected, the assimilation of radiosonde profiles reduced short-range forecast errors. The results highlight the current limitations in forecasting AR intensity and location and show the importance of in situ observations to improve the forecast of high-impact weather events.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148049170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-20

引用次数: 0

Meteorological Factors Conducive to Extreme Remote Rainfall Events in Northeastern Taiwan 台湾东北部极端偏远降雨事件的气象因子

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-19 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70035

Li-Huan Hsu, Shih-Hao Su, Yu-Hsin Hsu, Wen-Wei Tseng, Jung-Lien Chu, Lee-Yaw Lin

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IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-05-19

引用次数: 0