Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献

Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation and Precipitation Extremes in the Source Region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers Based on CMIP6 Model Optimization and Statistical Downscaling 基于CMIP6模式优化和统计降尺度的长江黄河源区降水及极端降水评价与预估

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1305

Rouke Li, Jia Wu, Ying Xu

{"title":"Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation and Precipitation Extremes in the Source Region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers Based on CMIP6 Model Optimization and Statistical Downscaling","authors":"Rouke Li, Jia Wu, Ying Xu","doi":"10.1002/asl.1305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1305","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluated the performance of a high-resolution statistical downscaling (HSD) approach integrating optimal global climate models (GCMs) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, and then projected regional precipitation extremes. The GCMs captured the general precipitation pattern, but the results indicated systematic overestimations, particularly in eastern parts of the region, with deviations reaching 304.8% for winter. The HSD approach improved the spatial correlation coefficients (SCCs) and reduced the biases for mean precipitation and precipitation extremes, outperforming the GCMs with SCCs for annual precipitation of up to 0.87 and reduction in bias by 35%–60% in the simulation of extreme indices. Future projections revealed substantial reduction in consecutive dry days and pronounced increase in the annual total precipitation on wet days, annual count of wet days (precipitation ≥ 1 mm), and annual count of days with heavy precipitation (precipitation ≥ 10 mm) over the source region under different emission scenarios. Specifically, the latter demonstrated accelerated growth with enhanced greenhouse gas concentration, increasing by 14.5%, 39.9%, and 57.3% under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively, by the late 21st century. The findings of this study highlight the need for enhanced flood risk management strategies over the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers to address the prospect of increased precipitation, and emphasize the critical role of coupling GCM optimization and QDM downscaling in generating reliable, high-resolution climate projections over regions of complex terrain.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1305","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144308760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of Malaria Measurements Under Climate Change in Douala, Cameroon: Simulations From the CORDEX-CORE Ensemble 气候变化下喀麦隆杜阿拉疟疾测量分析：来自CORDEX-CORE集合的模拟

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1304

Andre Lenouo, Torsten Weber, Eric Efon, Amelie D. Mbouna, Sharlot Fosah, Alain T. Tamoffo, Peter Hoffmann, Gaby S. Langendijk

{"title":"Analysis of Malaria Measurements Under Climate Change in Douala, Cameroon: Simulations From the CORDEX-CORE Ensemble","authors":"Andre Lenouo, Torsten Weber, Eric Efon, Amelie D. Mbouna, Sharlot Fosah, Alain T. Tamoffo, Peter Hoffmann, Gaby S. Langendijk","doi":"10.1002/asl.1304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1304","url":null,"abstract":"Malaria is a pivotal health concern worldwide and is particularly affecting the population of Africa. This work investigates shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns, which will influence the planning of health activities, especially regarding malaria. The primary goal of this study is to support reducing vulnerability to malaria in the city of Douala in Cameroon. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of the vector-borne disease community model VECTRI developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in simulating malaria transmission in Douala, Cameroon. We utilized rainfall data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station version 2 (CHIRPS2) and temperature data from the ERA5 dataset for the historical period from 2005 to 2015. Furthermore, we conducted simulations using nine outputs derived from the dynamical downscaling of the regional climate model from the CORDEX-CORE model ensemble with a resolution of 0.22° over Africa, focusing on two distinct time frames: near future (2031–2060) and far future (2070–2099). We aim to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on malaria transmission in Douala. Evaluated metrics encompassed risk maps for the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and the parasite ratio (PR). Throughout the historical period using rainfall and temperature, the model adeptly replicates observed EIR and PR. Projections indicate heterogeneous changes across the study area under global warming, with localized increases or decreases in EIR and PR. As radiative forcing levels escalate (from 2.6 to 8.5 W m−2), the magnitude of change in EIR and PR gradually intensifies.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1304","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144308762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Processes Underlying the Year-To-Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature 全球平均地表温度逐年波动背后的过程

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1307

Angela Jiang, Jonathan H. Jiang, Bin Guan

引用次数: 0

Origin of Smoke in the Record-Breaking Air-Pollution Event in New York, June 2023 2023年6月，纽约破纪录的空气污染事件中的烟雾来源

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1306

Leehi Magaritz-Ronen, Yotam Menachem, Alina Shafir, Sagi Maor, Shira Raveh-Rubin

{"title":"Origin of Smoke in the Record-Breaking Air-Pollution Event in New York, June 2023","authors":"Leehi Magaritz-Ronen, Yotam Menachem, Alina Shafir, Sagi Maor, Shira Raveh-Rubin","doi":"10.1002/asl.1306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1306","url":null,"abstract":"During the fire season of 2023, extreme continuous wildfires in Canada exported smoke to distant areas. On June 6–8, record-breaking smoke concentrations impacted human health and the environment in New York City (NYC) and its surroundings. In this work, for the first time, we incorporate Lagrangian airmass trajectories with Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecasts to trace back the origin of the smoke in NYC and identify the weather systems governing its transport. We locate the main smoke plume which originated from fires in Quebec. The smoke traveled at a height of about 500 hPa southward and descended slantwise to NYC behind a deep cyclone over the east coast. A second peak in smoke concentration in NYC emerged by air that circulated around the cyclone back to the city, collecting smoke again from the fires in Quebec. Smoke from the major fires in western Canada did not contribute significantly to the NYC event but was transported at tropopause level toward Europe. The findings highlight the critical role of synoptic-scale systems in the transport of wildfire smoke.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1306","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144308763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones 地中海气旋内的对流环境

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1302

Alice Portal, Andrea Angelidou, Raphael Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yonatan Givon, Jennifer L. Catto, Francesco Battaglioli, Mateusz Taszarek, Emmanouil Flaounas, Olivia Martius

{"title":"Convective Environments Within Mediterranean Cyclones","authors":"Alice Portal, Andrea Angelidou, Raphael Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yonatan Givon, Jennifer L. Catto, Francesco Battaglioli, Mateusz Taszarek, Emmanouil Flaounas, Olivia Martius","doi":"10.1002/asl.1302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1302","url":null,"abstract":"Mediterranean cyclones can trigger severe weather hazards, including convective precipitation, lightning and hail, with implications for operational forecasting, risk assessment in the insurance industry, and societal preparedness. This work examines the climatological link between Mediterranean cyclones and atmospheric conditions conducive to severe convection. Using ATDnet lightning detections we find that, from autumn to spring, 20%–80% of lightning hours over the Mediterranean basin and adjacent land regions are associated with nearby cyclones. Based on reanalysis data, we demonstrate that severe convective environments and associated hazards predominantly occur in the warm sector of Mediterranean cyclones and to the north-east of their centres. Convective processes and hazards exhibit a peak approximately 6 h prior to the time of minimum pressure of the cyclone centre, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, we find a strong seasonal dependence of severe convection within cyclones. Severe convective environments are often detected in cyclone types typical of transition seasons (autumn especially) and summer, while they are rarer in deep baroclinic cyclones characteristic of winter. Finally, we provide novel insights regarding the dependence of convective activity on the presence of dynamical features around Mediterranean cyclones. Warm conveyor belts, characterised by large-scale ascent and high thermodynamic instability, emerge as the most favourable regions for lightning activity, with lightning potential being twice as high compared to cyclone cold fronts. These results advance our understanding of the interplay between cyclone dynamics and severe convection, offering valuable guidance for improving hazard prediction and for elaborating weather emergency strategies in the Mediterranean region.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1302","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Objective Identification of Tropical Cyclone Systems With Potential for Storm Surge Impact in the Western North Pacific

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1303

Xiaoqi Zhang, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Kelvin S. Ng

{"title":"Objective Identification of Tropical Cyclone Systems With Potential for Storm Surge Impact in the Western North Pacific","authors":"Xiaoqi Zhang, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Kelvin S. Ng","doi":"10.1002/asl.1303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1303","url":null,"abstract":"The robust assessment of storm surge hazards induced by tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific is constrained by only ca. 50 seasons of reliable observational data. This can be addressed by constructing physically consistent large tropical cyclone event sets, for example, from ensemble simulations. To allow efficient construction of these event sets, we propose a combination (M&S-WiTRACK) of two objective tracking methods relying solely on near-surface information and validate the performance of the combination on detecting tropical cyclones with potential for storm surge impact using ERA5. The M&S-WiTRACK is formed by a cyclone tracker (M&S) identifying tropical cyclone trajectories based on mean sea level pressure, with a wind-based storm impact identification algorithm (WiTRACK) determining potential storm surge impact areas using 10-m wind speed. For the first time, the general performance of the M&S for tracking tropical cyclones is evaluated and 84.9% of IBTrACS (with 18.3% false alarm rate) in the Western North Pacific from 1980 to 2019 are identified, which is well comparable to more data-intensive tropical cyclone trackers. Furthermore, M&S-WiTRACK successfully identifies over 85% of economic storm surge loss-related tropical cyclones in China. Nearly all tropical cyclones causing storm surges with economic losses exceeding 2 billion RMB are identified.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1303","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The ensemble transform Schmidt–Kalman filter: A novel method to compensate for observation uncertainty due to unresolved scales 集合变换施密特-卡尔曼滤波：一种补偿未解析尺度引起的观测不确定性的新方法

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1296

Zackary Bell, Sarah L. Dance, Joanne A. Waller

{"title":"The ensemble transform Schmidt–Kalman filter: A novel method to compensate for observation uncertainty due to unresolved scales","authors":"Zackary Bell, Sarah L. Dance, Joanne A. Waller","doi":"10.1002/asl.1296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1296","url":null,"abstract":"Data assimilation is a mathematical technique that uses observations to improve model predictions through consideration of their respective uncertainties. Observation error due to unresolved scales occurs when there is a difference in scales observed and modeled. To obtain an optimal estimate through data assimilation, the error due to unresolved scales must be accounted for in the algorithm. In this work, we derive a novel ensemble transform formulation of the Schmidt–Kalman filter (ETSKF) to compensate for observation uncertainty due to unresolved scales in nonlinear dynamical systems. The ETSKF represents the small-scale variability through an ensemble sampled from the representation error covariance. This small-scale ensemble is added to the large-scale forecast ensemble to obtain an ensemble representative of all scales resolved by the observations. We illustrate our new method using a simple nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with two timescales known as the swinging spring (or elastic pendulum). In this simple system, our novel method performs similarly to another method of compensating for uncertainty due to unresolved scales. Indeed, the use of small-scale ensemble statistics has potential as a new approach to compensate for uncertainty due to unresolved scales in nonlinear dynamical systems but will need further testing using more complicated systems.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1296","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143909094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental fields of moderate clear air turbulence above 400 hPa around Japan 日本周围400 hPa以上的中晴空乱流环境场

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1292

Soshi Ito, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Yoshiyuki Kajikawa

{"title":"Environmental fields of moderate clear air turbulence above 400 hPa around Japan","authors":"Soshi Ito, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Yoshiyuki Kajikawa","doi":"10.1002/asl.1292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1292","url":null,"abstract":"We analyzed environmental fields for moderate clear air turbulence (CAT) reported above 400 hPa over Japan between 2010 and 2017. We divided the year into five periods, with June separate from summer. In June, a stagnant front called the Baiu front is often present over Japan, making meteorological conditions different from summer. Using reanalysis data, we analyzed environmental fields for each period. It is shown that the environmental fields of aviation turbulence around Japan differ depending on altitude and period. In winter, CAT tends to occur on the west side of the trough of the jet stream axis. The jet stream is often weak when CAT occurred. CAT is likely to occur around trough in spring and fall, suggesting that the trough-enhanced deformation and strengthened vertical wind shear caused the CAT. CAT likely occurs in a field with cyclonic circulation and active convection in the lower levels in summer. In June, it is suggested that it tends to occur north of the Baiu front and around troughs associated with the jet stream. The jet stream to the north of the Baiu front suggests that the Baiu front is related to the onset of CAT.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1292","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143900991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A New Insight on El Niño Diversity: Decadal Variability in Westerly Wind Bursts El Niño多样性的新认识：西风爆发的年代际变化

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1301

Anqi Li, Chaopeng Ji, Xianghui Fang

{"title":"A New Insight on El Niño Diversity: Decadal Variability in Westerly Wind Bursts","authors":"Anqi Li, Chaopeng Ji, Xianghui Fang","doi":"10.1002/asl.1301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1301","url":null,"abstract":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability, characterized by fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) with diverse spatial structures. Recent research has identified two main flavors of El Niño events: Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types, each associated with different physical processes and climatic impacts. However, the causes of El Niño diversity remain widely debated, with westerly wind bursts (WWBs) recognized as a major contributing factor. This study investigates the relationship between WWBs and El Niño diversity, focusing on decadal variations in the cumulative intensity (CWI) and longitudinal center (LonCen) of WWBs. Analyses of CWI and LonCen throughout the year and in spring show that CWI exhibits significant decadal variations corresponding to changes in El Niño diversity, with stronger CWI favoring the occurrence of EP El Niño events. While LonCen exhibits a trend of shifting gradually toward the Western Pacific, which aligns with an increased frequency of CP El Niño events. These results further highlight the importance of WWBs, emphasizing not only their intensity but also their spatial pattern, in influencing El Niño evolution and diversity.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1301","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143900992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers in the Western North Pacific Using a Seasonal Prediction Model 利用季节预报模式对北太平洋西部大气河流的季节预报

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1299

Yuya Baba

{"title":"Seasonal Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers in the Western North Pacific Using a Seasonal Prediction Model","authors":"Yuya Baba","doi":"10.1002/asl.1299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1299","url":null,"abstract":"Seasonal prediction of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the western north Pacific (WNP) is examined using a seasonal prediction model with and without atmospheric initialisation. A 20-year seasonal prediction was conducted to evaluate the model's prediction skill, particularly focusing over the Japan area. The prediction skill of the present model indicated that the seasonal AR frequency is predictable with a lead time of up to 7–10 months, and the atmospheric initialisation further improved the skill. An additional investigation was conducted to identify the source of predictability for seasonal ARs. One significant source is the predictability of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, which is influenced by the model's skill in predicting tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The anticyclonic circulation southeast of Japan is well predicted when the tropical SST variability and PJ pattern are accurately predicted. Another source of predictability difference originated from the subsurface sea temperature (SBT) beneath the subtropical high in the North Pacific. When the SBT prediction is improved with atmospheric initialisation, it enhances the air-sea interactions over the subtropical high in the WNP and southeast of Japan, leading to better predictability of seasonal ARs.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1299","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0