Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献

{"title":"Mediterranean Warming Amplified the Convective Environment During the December 13, 2024 Severe Thunderstorm at Rome–Fiumicino Airport","authors":"Tommaso Alberti,&nbsp;Davide Faranda","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme convective events are posing increasing challenge to aviation. On December 13, 2024, an intense thunderstorm caused severe operational disruption at Rome–Fiumicino Airport. Here we analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with this event using a conditional analogue-based framework applied to ERA5 reanalysis data. We identify synoptic and mesoscale patterns similar to the one observed during the event over the satellite era (1979 to present) and compare the associated environmental conditions between a counterfactual past period (1979–2000) and a factual present one (2002–2023). While the dynamical structure of the circulation patterns remains mostly unchanged, the thermodynamic background has evolved toward warmer conditions, with increased near-surface air and sea surface temperatures over the Mediterranean basin. These changes are accompanied by increases in precipitation, convective instability, and wind shear. Observations at Rome–Fiumicino Airport further indicate stronger wind gusts, increased dew-point temperature and reduced visibility during analogue situations in recent decades. Our results suggest that warming background conditions may amplify the convective impacts of otherwise similar synoptic and mesoscale patterns, increasing the potential for disruptive weather affecting Mediterranean aviation hubs.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70060","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148860151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Deep Learning Model for Decadal Indian Ocean Dipole","authors":"Sitraka Ny Aina Raharivelo,&nbsp;Yanyan Huang,&nbsp;Danwei Qian,&nbsp;Jing-Jia Luo,&nbsp;Peishu Zong","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rapid and unprecedented warming of the Indian Ocean intensifies climate risks across socio-economically vulnerable regions, highlighting the need of accurate prediction over the coming decade. This study first assesses the decadal predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), then develops a deep learning model based on a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) to enhance its predictive skill. The BiGRU model is designed to process multisource sequential data and is trained on the IOD index derived from DCPP simulations. Results show the MME achieves moderate skill on detrended IOD with an anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) of 0.51 and 0.20 during 1963–2020, respectively. The BiGRU model improved the skill with an anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of 0.88 and a mean squared skill score (MSSS) of 0.72 during the testing period of 2009–2020, and accurately captured extreme IOD events. Based on the enhanced IOD index, we further used it to improve the prediction skill of the IOD-related Australian rainfall, achieving ACC and MSSS values of 0.90 and 0.70 during 2009–2020, compared to 0.29 and −1.62 from the MME, underscoring the reliability of the BiGRU model for both IOD and related precipitation forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148753470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Damaging Surface Hail in Simulations of Satellite-Detected Hailstorms in Australia's Tropics","authors":"Timothy H. Raupach,&nbsp;Sarah D. Bang,&nbsp;John T. Allen","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70058","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Satellite detections of hail signatures are uncertain in the tropics, where the deep troposphere and a warm, humid sub-cloud environment increase the chances that ice detected aloft will melt before it reaches the surface. It is often suspected that satellite-based detections of hail over the tropics are over-estimations owing to this effect. Here, we used numerical weather simulations to examine the plausibility of damaging surface hail at times and locations when satellites detected hail signatures over Australia's tropics. Four microphysics schemes were used to simulate 61 hail signature detections with surface hailstone sizes estimated using a column model for hailstone growth and melting, and estimated by model microphysics. Using the column model, 65 of the 244 simulations were “damaging-hail cases” that produced surface hail at least 20 mm in diameter. Although instability was not significantly different between the no-hail and damaging-hail cases, damaging-hail cases had increased wind shear and mid- to upper-level moisture, and produced storms with wider and stronger updrafts than no-hail cases. These hail cases could therefore support the growth of larger hailstones that survived melting to reach the surface. The results are well explained by entrainment theory. These simulations show that satellite-based hail detections in the tropics may plausibly contain a significant subset of damaging surface-hail events.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70058","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Well Is the Lake-Land Breeze Circulation of Lake Victoria Captured in ECMWF Operational Analysis?","authors":"Musa Ssemujju,&nbsp;Marlon Maranan,&nbsp;Andreas H. Fink,&nbsp;Simon Ageet","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lake-breeze fronts (LBFs) are important drivers of cloudiness, deep moist convection, and heavy precipitation around large tropical lakes, yet their representation in global forecast systems remains poorly understood. This study evaluates the ability of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) 9 km operational analyses to represent the lake-breeze system over the Lake Victoria basin in Uganda during December–February and June–August 2017–2022. A recently developed objective lake-breeze detection algorithm (OLBDA) is applied to hourly station data and IFS surface data to identify LBF passages. Results show that while the IFS captures the coherent progression of the LBF from early to late afternoon, the analysis reveals biases, including an overprediction of LBF occurrence by ~26% and an early arrival of 1–2 h at most stations. Among three commonly used parameters to delineate LBFs, that is, surface convergence, and gradients of surface specific humidity and boundary-layer height (BLH), the latter two emerge as the most reliable indicators of LBF structure and evolution. Composite and vertical cross-section analyses reveal physically consistent three-dimensional lake-breeze features in the IFS, yet contrasts occur between western and northern transects. The NW-SE transect shows stronger vertical motion and deeper inland penetration when compared to the North–South transect. The latter is likely related to the mean easterly low-level flow over the lake. The depth of the BLH in the late afternoon is 3 km. Overall, our results suggest that ECMWF IFS operational analyses can be reliably used to study lake-breeze systems in both observational and modeling contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Index to Characterize the South Indian Ocean High-Pressure System and Its Variability","authors":"Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine,&nbsp;Kwesi Twentwewa Quagraine,&nbsp;Francis Nkrumah,&nbsp;Bruce Hewitson,&nbsp;Mark Tadross,&nbsp;Nana Ama Browne Klutse","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The South Indian Ocean High-Pressure (SIOHP) system strongly influences regional climate and oceanic circulation, yet a comprehensive index of its variability is lacking. We extend an earlier methodology for subtropical highs to develop an index of SIOHP intensity and position and describe its spatial and temporal variability from 1940 to 2023 using ERA5 mean sea level pressure. The SIOHP shows clear inter- and intra-annual variability, with the highest intensities in winter (JJA) and spring (SON) and a pronounced seasonal migration. In the transition seasons, and most clearly in November, the centroid is bimodally distributed: a composite of the raw pressure field resolves two distinct closed anticyclones, a strong, compact southeastern high and a weaker, northwestward-displaced high about 4 hPa weaker, showing that the SIOHP alternates between two physical configurations differing in both position and strength rather than a single migrating feature. We assess the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a trend-corrected, ENSO-year classification based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. Contrary to earlier expectations, ENSO exerts only a weak and largely insignificant influence: neither seasonal position nor intensity is significantly modulated by ENSO phase, and no significant distinction emerges between canonical and Modoki events. The one robust signal is an equatorward displacement of the high during El Niño summer (DJF). Interannual SIOHP variability therefore appears to be governed largely by factors other than ENSO, which may include internal atmospheric variability, regional air-sea coupling, and remote influences from outside the tropical Pacific. The index offers a tool for monitoring, forecasting, and assessing regional climate variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148667476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased Numerical Accuracy of Terrain Slope Amplifies Advection Errors in Idealized 2D Experiments Under Terrain-Following Coordinate","authors":"Qun Tian,&nbsp;Daosheng Xu,&nbsp;Zitong Chen","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70054","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the impact of numerical accuracy of terrain slope on advection errors under Gal-Chen and Somerville terrain-following coordinates. Through a series of idealized 2D linear advection experiments, we demonstrate that increasing the numerical accuracy of terrain slope (from second- to fourth-order) amplifies advection errors under steep topographic conditions, irrespective of the numerical accuracy of other spatial differences in the advection equation. Mechanistic analysis reveals that this error amplification is predominantly caused by the horizontal advection process, wherein higher-order accuracy terrain slope introduces intensified unresolved small-scale topographic forcings, which manifest as spurious waves through aliasing. These findings indicate that increased numerical accuracy does not invariably enhance model performance and highlight the need for careful attention to terrain representation in the model.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148616006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Analysis of the Location Characteristics of the East Asian Trough Under the Remote Influence of Tropical Cyclones","authors":"Ruiqing Qi,&nbsp;Tianju Wang,&nbsp;Bowen Liu","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) and the East Asian trough (EAT) are prominent circulation systems over the Western North Pacific (WNP)–East Asia region. Using statistical analysis, this study investigates the remote influences of TC activity over the tropical WNP on the location of the EAT and examines the possible underlying reasons. Results show that TC activity can cause the EAT line to move northwestward. The anomalous geopotential height induced by the remote influence of TC activity is a key factor in displacing the EAT, with the EAT line shifting away from regions with positive anomalous geopotential height. The anomalous warm advection and anomalous latent heat release induced by TC activity over the region east of the EAT line result in positive temperature anomalies, which further generate positive geopotential height anomalies under the constraint of static equilibrium, ultimately displacing the EAT. Findings of this study reveal the important modulating role of WNP TC activity on the East Asian mid-latitude climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148615958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Past Global Warming Influence on Intense Typhoons Reaching Southern China During El Niño and La Niña Using a Variable Resolution Global Model","authors":"Duofan Zheng,&nbsp;Shao-Yi Lee,&nbsp;Xian Zhu,&nbsp;Wenjie Dong","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Four equilibrium climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2.2 forced by prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The model mesh was regionally refined to 0.25° horizontally over the Asia-Pacific, in order to generate intense typhoons (maximum sustained winds above 41.5 m s⁻¹). Two baseline simulations were forced by SSTs of 1997 (El Niño), 2000 (La Niña). The global SST was detrended by removing Mode 1 from Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition. Two more “non-warming” simulations of 1997 and 2000 were performed. Intense typhoon tracks were grouped with agglomerative hierarchical clustering and categorized into westward and curved tracks. Mode 1 decreased the number of westward tracks for 2000, while there were no statistically significant changes in curved tracks for 2000 and both types for 1997. Mode 1 also increased track density over the Luzon Strait toward Guangdong in 1997 (not significant), and over the Yangtze River mouth in 2000 (significant). It is therefore possible that the perceived increased typhoon damage in recent years may be due to intense typhoon tracks shifting to more populated and economically important regions. However, since only 2 years were analyzed, the track changes may be due to residual SST anomalies that were event-specific. Furthermore, there remained uncertainty in the individual effects of global warming and climate variability signals contained inside Mode 1.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70052","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148343187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variability of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal Across the Phase Space of the Madden–Julian Oscillation","authors":"Bradford S. Barrett,&nbsp;Nadim Mahmud,&nbsp;Md Masud-Ul-Alam,&nbsp;Pallav Ray,&nbsp;Sahadat Habib,&nbsp;Md Foysal,&nbsp;Most Israt Jahan Mili,&nbsp;Md Hanif Biswas","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) were analyzed across the full two-dimensional phase space of the real-time multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index for pre- and post-monsoon periods from 1990 to 2025. Results show that cyclogenesis anomalies span the phase space and depend largely on the sign of the first principal component of the index, RMM1. Moreover, on days when the intraseasonal index is in phases previously found favorable for cyclogenesis, the anomalies are statistically significant for only a limited range of amplitudes in those phases. Skill scores were calculated for vertical velocity (VV), relative humidity (RH), sea level pressure (SLP), vertical wind shear (VWS), and sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify how well each parameter identifies cyclogenesis in the intraseasonal phase space. Among these variables, 700-hPa VV was most skillful at identifying both pre- and post-monsoon cyclogenesis anomalies, outperforming RH, SLP, VWS, and SST, although all had high false alarm ratios. The 700-hPa VV was also more skillful than the 500-hPa VV, suggesting that it should be included in intraseasonal genesis indices. In the post-monsoon period, SST showed little to no skill at identifying intraseasonal cyclogenesis anomalies, in agreement with recent work suggesting it be considered alongside other modes of variability. The results of this study fill a critical gap in our understanding of the MJO–tropical cyclone relationship in the BoB by establishing basin-specific probabilities of cyclogenesis across multiple MJO states and identifying drivers of the variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148282221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Three-Year Characterization of Boundary Layer Dynamics From GNSS Zenith Wet Delay Spectral Analysis","authors":"Gaël Kermarrec,&nbsp;Xavier Calbet,&nbsp;Zhiguo Deng","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70038","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Continuous monitoring of boundary layer turbulence remains a challenge due to sparse conventional instrumentation. Here we suggest that spectral analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith wet delay (ZWD) fluctuations yields physically meaningful diagnostics of boundary layer state. From 3 years of co-located GNSS and Doppler lidar observations (January 2022–December 2024, &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;N&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;52,608&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ N=mathrm{52,608} $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) at Payerne, Switzerland, we extract the variance &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {sigma}^2 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, a measure of integrated water vapor turbulence intensity, and the cutoff frequency &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ alpha $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, which marks the spectral extent of turbulent mixing. Annual harmonic analysis reveals that &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ alpha $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; captures 54% of its variance through the seasonal cycle (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.54&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {R}^2=0.54 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, peak in January), while &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {sigma}^2 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; peaks in August (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.21&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ {R}^2=0.21 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;). The inverse &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;α&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148174198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}