Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献

Cold Waves in a Changing Climate: Characteristics, Trends, and Large-Scale Drivers in Northern Europe and the Alps 气候变化中的寒潮：北欧和阿尔卑斯山的特征、趋势和大规模驱动因素

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-04-13 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70021

Meriem Krouma, Michael K. Schutte, Loïc Maniora

{"title":"Cold Waves in a Changing Climate: Characteristics, Trends, and Large-Scale Drivers in Northern Europe and the Alps","authors":"Meriem Krouma, Michael K. Schutte, Loïc Maniora","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70021","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl2.70021","url":null,"abstract":"Cold waves continue to pose severe challenges to infrastructure, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health across Europe despite an overall warming trend driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of 84 boreal winters (November 1940–March 2024) using ERA5 reanalysis data to quantify changes in cold-wave frequency, duration, and intensity within two climatically sensitive domains: northern Europe and the Alps. Despite regional variability in cold wave characteristics, we detect statistically significant declines in annual cold-wave frequency (−0.33 to −0.36 events per decade), event durations (−0.14 to −0.19 days per decade), and warming of event anomalies (+0.11°C to +0.14°C per decade) in both regions. Dynamical attribution links these trends to shifts in large-scale circulation. The ratio of cold waves associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reduces, but increases for positive NAO phases. Weather-regime composites reveal spatial heterogeneity in large-scale driver impacts, with regional factors such as topography further shaping cold-wave characteristics. These findings highlight the coupled roles of thermodynamic warming and circulation variability in modulating European cold extremes.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sensitivity of Heatwave Characteristics to the Climatic Baseline 热浪特征对气候基线的敏感性

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70017

Vivian A. Fraser-Leonhardt, Gabriele C. Hegerl, James D. P. Mollard

{"title":"Sensitivity of Heatwave Characteristics to the Climatic Baseline","authors":"Vivian A. Fraser-Leonhardt, Gabriele C. Hegerl, James D. P. Mollard","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70017","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl2.70017","url":null,"abstract":"Temperature extremes are usually defined relative to conditions during a past baseline period. Due to global warming, different baselines produce different results for heatwave frequency, intensity, spatial extent and duration. This study investigates how the choice of baseline affects summer heatwave metrics across Europe from 1950 to 2023. We evaluate regional and temporal differences in heatwave characteristics using both grid-point analysis and a case study of the 2003 European heatwaves using observational daily maximum summer temperature for three different baselines (1961–1990, 1981–2010 and 1991–2020). Results show that more recent baselines yield a substantial reduction across Europe in observed heatwave frequency, of up to 12 days per summer in some southern European regions. The average intensity of heatwaves relative to the 90th percentile decreases by up to 2.0°C when using more recent baselines. The largest reductions are observed in southern and central Europe. The spatial extent of the 2003 European heatwave declines by more than 0.5 million km2 if using more recent baselines, and the duration shortens by up to 2 days as conditions that would have been extreme in the past are nearer the new normal. However, 2003 is still classified as a mega-heatwave under both baselines. Comparisons of fixed, detrended and rolling reference approaches show that methods that vary baselines, assuming linear warming—despite its unrealistic nature—yield similar results to rolling reference windows from 1960 onward.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling the South–North Dipole in August Precipitation–Surface Air Temperature Relationship Over the Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原8月降水-地表气温关系的南北偶极子解析

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-29 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70028

Zouxing Lin, Yifeng Lin, Zhongren Deng

{"title":"Unraveling the South–North Dipole in August Precipitation–Surface Air Temperature Relationship Over the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Zouxing Lin, Yifeng Lin, Zhongren Deng","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70028","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl2.70028","url":null,"abstract":"The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts strong summer thermal forcing that plays a critical role in regulating regional and even global climate anomalies. However, how radiative feedback associated with precipitation modulates surface thermal conditions over the TP remains incompletely understood. Using the high-resolution CMFD 2.0 dataset by integrating multisource observational data, this study investigates the relationship between precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) during the peak rainy month (August) over the TP for the period 1980–2023. The results show a pronounced south–north dipole pattern in the precipitation–SAT relationship, characterized by negative correlations over the southern TP and positive correlations over the northern TP. Further analysis indicates that, in the southern TP, increased precipitation leads to a reduction in surface shortwave radiation downward (SSRD), thereby weakening surface heating and cooling the SAT. In contrast, in the northern TP, increased precipitation enhances surface longwave radiation downward (SLRD), strengthening atmospheric heating and raising SAT. These responses are consistent with the respective responses of SAT to SSRD and SLRD in the southern and northern TP, respectively. Therefore, this study provides a novel perspective on how precipitation over the TP modulates surface thermal anomalies through distinct shortwave and longwave radiative feedback processes.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing Air Quality Simulations With Neural Downscaling Architectures 用神经降尺度架构增强空气质量模拟

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-29 DOI: 10.1002/asl.70003

Maxime Beauchamp, Bertrand Bessagnet, Enrico Pisoni, Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexander de Meij, Philippe Thunis

引用次数: 0

Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints 从干旱到洪水的突然转变可能在西南泥石流事件中不常见：来自先前水文气象指纹的证据

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70025

Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang

{"title":"Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints","authors":"Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"Debris flows are one of the most destructive mass-movement processes. Previous studies have shown that debris-flow occurrence may be related to antecedent higher temperatures or droughts, yet a comprehensive and objective regional understanding is still lacking. Here we integrated meteorological reanalysis with remotely-sensed soil moisture products to investigate the hydrometeorological conditions preceding debris flows in Sichuan Province, Southwest China, during 2008–2018. Antecedent meteorological settings were classified into four characteristic patterns: “higher temperature with more rain”, “higher temperature with less rain”, “lower temperature with more rain”, and “lower temperature with less rain”. Approximately 80% of events occurred after anomalously high temperatures relative to climatology, highlighting a robust warming signal prior to debris-flow initiation. Although spatial heterogeneity existed, most events were concentrated in the mountainous areas surrounding the western Sichuan Basin. Soil was predominantly wet before events (96.6%), while only a minority of events were preceded by drought. These drought-related cases included both flash droughts (63%) and slowly-evolving droughts (37%), also clustered in the western Sichuan Basin. The results demonstrate that antecedent high temperatures and droughts can both facilitate debris-flow occurrence, and they provide new insights into how changing climate regimes may reshape debris-flow hazards in mountain regions worldwide.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Predictability of the Southern England 23 October 2022 Severe Downbursts 2022年10月23日英格兰南部的可预测性

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70024

David L. A. Flack, Kenneth L. Pryor

引用次数: 0

Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints 从干旱到洪水的突然转变可能在西南泥石流事件中不常见：来自先前水文气象指纹的证据

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70025

Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang

{"title":"Sudden Shift From Drought to Flood May Be Infrequent in Debris-Flow Events in Southwest China: Evidence From Antecedent Hydrometeorological Fingerprints","authors":"Hao Li, Shuang Liu, Kaiheng Hu, Li Wei, Haiguang Cheng, Hongjuan Yang","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70025","url":null,"abstract":"Debris flows are one of the most destructive mass-movement processes. Previous studies have shown that debris-flow occurrence may be related to antecedent higher temperatures or droughts, yet a comprehensive and objective regional understanding is still lacking. Here we integrated meteorological reanalysis with remotely-sensed soil moisture products to investigate the hydrometeorological conditions preceding debris flows in Sichuan Province, Southwest China, during 2008–2018. Antecedent meteorological settings were classified into four characteristic patterns: “higher temperature with more rain”, “higher temperature with less rain”, “lower temperature with more rain”, and “lower temperature with less rain”. Approximately 80% of events occurred after anomalously high temperatures relative to climatology, highlighting a robust warming signal prior to debris-flow initiation. Although spatial heterogeneity existed, most events were concentrated in the mountainous areas surrounding the western Sichuan Basin. Soil was predominantly wet before events (96.6%), while only a minority of events were preceded by drought. These drought-related cases included both flash droughts (63%) and slowly-evolving droughts (37%), also clustered in the western Sichuan Basin. The results demonstrate that antecedent high temperatures and droughts can both facilitate debris-flow occurrence, and they provide new insights into how changing climate regimes may reshape debris-flow hazards in mountain regions worldwide.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Predictability of the Southern England 23 October 2022 Severe Downbursts 2022年10月23日英格兰南部的可预测性

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-17 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70024

David L. A. Flack, Kenneth L. Pryor

引用次数: 0

Investigating the Role of Climate Change in the 3 May 2025 Western Europe Hailstorm Using Atmospheric Analogs 利用大气模拟物研究气候变化在2025年5月3日西欧冰雹中的作用

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70016

Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti

{"title":"Investigating the Role of Climate Change in the 3 May 2025 Western Europe Hailstorm Using Atmospheric Analogs","authors":"Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70016","url":null,"abstract":"On 3 May 2025, a severe hailstorm affected Paris and parts of western Europe. We assess whether anthropogenic climate change contributed to its intensity using ERA5 reanalyses and an analog-based attribution framework. The synoptic pattern featured a cut-off low and a surface cold front. We identify circulation analogs to 3 May 2025 in two periods, that is, a cooler “past” (1974–1999) and a warmer “present” (1999–2024), and compare thermodynamic conditions under otherwise similar large-scale flow. Hail probability and size are estimated with two models: (i) a logistic formulation using Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), deep-layer wind shear, and convective precipitation, and (ii) an extended model including freezing-level height and 850 hPa temperature. Models are calibrated with Île-de-France observations and validated independently. Present-day analogs exhibit significantly higher CAPE (+200 J/kg), a higher freezing level (+100–200 m), and similar deep-layer shear, yielding larger hail probability (+30%) and size (+2 cm). These results indicate that human-induced warming likely enhanced the hailstorm severity in this synoptic setting.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aerosol Effect on Orographic Clouds and Its Meteorological Feedback: A Numerical Case Study 气溶胶对地形云的影响及其气象反馈：数值实例研究

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/asl2.70022

Jiahao Zhang, Xinyi Lin, Qian Chen, Zeyong Zou

{"title":"Aerosol Effect on Orographic Clouds and Its Meteorological Feedback: A Numerical Case Study","authors":"Jiahao Zhang, Xinyi Lin, Qian Chen, Zeyong Zou","doi":"10.1002/asl2.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.70022","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosol effect on orographic clouds and its feedback on the surrounding meteorological environment have been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the spectrum bin microphysics scheme. Analysis of aerosol impacts on water vapor mixing ratio, latent heating rates, and wind field reveals that enhanced aerosol loading invigorates convection accompanied by intensive latent heat release, which induces stronger convergence at 3–5 km of altitude and leads to increased horizontal wind speed around the periphery of clouds on the windward slope. Moreover, the enhanced negative buoyancy around the periphery of clouds under polluted condition induces the descent of dry air from the middle troposphere, together with the downslope winds, consequently resulting in lower humidity and higher temperature at lower levels of the lee side. Under clean condition, the surface temperature of the leeward slope is 6.0 K higher than that of the windward slope, while this difference is increased to 7.0 K under polluted condition. The surface relative humidity on the lee side is 42.6% and 21.6% for clean and polluted conditions, respectively. By intensifying the downslope wind and reducing leeside humidity, aerosols suppress subsequent cloud growth and thereby alter the precipitation pattern, leading to higher rain rates over the windward slope and leeward side under polluted and clean conditions, respectively.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"27 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl2.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0