Analysis of Malaria Measurements Under Climate Change in Douala, Cameroon: Simulations From the CORDEX-CORE Ensemble

Abstract

Malaria is a pivotal health concern worldwide and is particularly affecting the population of Africa. This work investigates shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns, which will influence the planning of health activities, especially regarding malaria. The primary goal of this study is to support reducing vulnerability to malaria in the city of Douala in Cameroon. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of the vector-borne disease community model VECTRI developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in simulating malaria transmission in Douala, Cameroon. We utilized rainfall data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station version 2 (CHIRPS2) and temperature data from the ERA5 dataset for the historical period from 2005 to 2015. Furthermore, we conducted simulations using nine outputs derived from the dynamical downscaling of the regional climate model from the CORDEX-CORE model ensemble with a resolution of 0.22° over Africa, focusing on two distinct time frames: near future (2031–2060) and far future (2070–2099). We aim to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on malaria transmission in Douala. Evaluated metrics encompassed risk maps for the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and the parasite ratio (PR). Throughout the historical period using rainfall and temperature, the model adeptly replicates observed EIR and PR. Projections indicate heterogeneous changes across the study area under global warming, with localized increases or decreases in EIR and PR. As radiative forcing levels escalate (from 2.6 to 8.5 W m⁻²), the magnitude of change in EIR and PR gradually intensifies.