Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献_第2页

A novel sea surface evaporation scheme assessed by the thermal rotating shallow water model 用热旋转浅水模式评估一种新的海面蒸发方案

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1287

Masoud Rostami, Stefan Petri, Bijan Fallah, Farahnaz Fazel-Rastgar

{"title":"A novel sea surface evaporation scheme assessed by the thermal rotating shallow water model","authors":"Masoud Rostami, Stefan Petri, Bijan Fallah, Farahnaz Fazel-Rastgar","doi":"10.1002/asl.1287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1287","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, a novel sea surface evaporation scheme, along with its corresponding bulk aerodynamic formulation, is proposed to estimate sea surface evaporation, columnar humidity, and precipitation distribution within the atmosphere. The scheme is based on three distinct functions, each dependent on a single variable: zonal wind velocity, tropospheric (potential) temperature, and free convection. It is shown that the normalized Clausius–Clapeyron formula requires an adjustable scaling factor for real-world applications, calibrated using empirical fitness curves. To validate the proposed approach, we employ a model based on the pseudo-spectral moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water model, with minimal parameterization over the entire sphere. ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) reanalysis data are used to compare the model's results with observations. The model is tested across different seasons to assess its reliability under various weather conditions. The Dedalus algorithm, which handles spin-weighted spherical harmonics, is employed to address the pseudo-spectral problem-solving tasks of the model.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1287","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model 台风海燕的气候变化归因与帝国学院风暴模式

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1285

Nathan Sparks, Ralf Toumi

引用次数: 0

Raindrop size distribution variability associated with size-dependent advection in convective precipitation systems 对流降水系统中雨滴大小分布变异性与大小相关的平流

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1286

Megumi Okazaki, Kosei Yamaguchi, Tomoro Yanase, Eiichi Nakakita

{"title":"Raindrop size distribution variability associated with size-dependent advection in convective precipitation systems","authors":"Megumi Okazaki, Kosei Yamaguchi, Tomoro Yanase, Eiichi Nakakita","doi":"10.1002/asl.1286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1286","url":null,"abstract":"Raindrop size distribution (DSD) is fundamental for understanding precipitation processes. This study utilized a two-dimensional simulation with bin cloud microphysics parameterizations to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of DSDs owing to the influence of mesoscale circulation associated with the precipitation system. The simulated multicellular convection went through developing, mature, and dissipating stages, with updraft weakening and rainfall area expanding through these stages. The width of the DSD narrowed as rainfall weakened. In addition, a significant bimodal DSD was observed during the dissipating stage. Furthermore, we investigated the spatial distribution of the number density of raindrops corresponding to the maximum, local minimum, and local maximum of the significant bimodal DSD in the dissipating stage. According to the results, the raindrops constituting the maximum, local minimum, and local maximum followed different advection processes. This size-dependent advection effect may have contributed to the bimodal DSD formation.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1286","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting 2023年9月7-8日香港历史暴雨：诊断、预报及临近预报

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1284

Hiu Ching Tam, Yu-Heng He, Pak Wai Chan, Shiwei Yu, Huisi Mo, Hui Su, Ling-Feng Hsiao, Yangzhao Gong

{"title":"Historical rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7–8 September 2023: Diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting","authors":"Hiu Ching Tam, Yu-Heng He, Pak Wai Chan, Shiwei Yu, Huisi Mo, Hui Su, Ling-Feng Hsiao, Yangzhao Gong","doi":"10.1002/asl.1284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1284","url":null,"abstract":"On 7–8 September 2023, Hong Kong was hit by a historical and record-breaking rainstorm associated with the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Haikui (2311). The hourly rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters once reached 158.1 mm, the highest since record began in 1884. The 24-h rainfall even exceeded 600 mm in some parts of the territory. The historical rainstorm resulted in heavy flooding and landslides, bringing significant societal impact to Hong Kong. This paper aims to review this unprecedented heavy rain event from the aspects of diagnosis, forecasting and nowcasting. Early indicators of such events over Hong Kong with substantial lead time are limited from the dynamics and thermodynamics consideration, the numerical weather prediction models, given the present technology. The only indication may come from the climatologically extreme total precipitable water. While recent research of developing a regional risk-based alerting system on the higher impact event of flooding associated with heavy rain might have potential to enhance the weather service, and emerging AI model showed some promising post-simulations, predicting historical and record-breaking rainstorms remains a challenge for operational weather forecasting and warning services.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1284","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143114003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Classification of urban underlying surfaces in Beijing and its impact on summer high temperature and heat wave event 北京城市下垫面分类及其对夏季高温和热浪事件的影响

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1283

Zuofang Zheng, Guirong Xu, Nana Li, Hua Gao

引用次数: 0

Influence of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on temperature and precipitation in South Korea 北方夏季季内振荡对韩国气温和降水的影响

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1282

Yoo-Rim Jung, Woo-Seop Lee

{"title":"Influence of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on temperature and precipitation in South Korea","authors":"Yoo-Rim Jung, Woo-Seop Lee","doi":"10.1002/asl.1282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1282","url":null,"abstract":"The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a major mode of sub-seasonal variability that regulates the summer climate in East Asia. This study investigates the four possible effects of two different time-scale BSISOs on temperature and precipitation variations in South Korea. When active BSISO convection is positioned over the subtropical western Pacific, it induces anomalous anticyclonic circulation accompanied by subsidence, leading to significant positive temperature anomalies. Conversely, the anomalous cyclonic circulation near the Korean Peninsula, resulting from suppressed convection in the subtropical western Pacific, along with low-level cold advection anomalies, contributes to a decrease in temperature. The spatial distribution of BSISO convection, which drives precipitation variation, shows a distinctive pattern of three meridionally narrow cells extending from the Philippines to the Korean Peninsula. Suppressed (enhanced) convection to the north of 20°N in the western North Pacific (WNP) promotes the northwestward expansion (eastward contraction) of the WNP Subtropical High in conjunction with a southwesterly (northeasterly) moisture flux anomaly. Furthermore, enhanced (reduced) moisture flux convergence and intensified ascending (descending) motion create favorable conditions for positive (negative) precipitation anomalies in South Korea. The combined effect of BSISOs not only amplifies the mean temperature and precipitation anomalies compared to individual modes but also increases the frequency of warmer, wetter, and drier events. Therefore, monitoring both BSISO modes together is crucial for comprehending and predicting the anomalous summer climate in South Korea.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1282","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modulation of diurnal variation in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones over the East Asia–Western North Pacific region by environmental vertical wind shear 环境垂直风切变对东亚-西北太平洋热带气旋相关降雨日变化的调节

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1281

Na Wei, Qian Wang, Xinghai Zhang, Dajun Zhao

{"title":"Modulation of diurnal variation in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones over the East Asia–Western North Pacific region by environmental vertical wind shear","authors":"Na Wei, Qian Wang, Xinghai Zhang, Dajun Zhao","doi":"10.1002/asl.1281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1281","url":null,"abstract":"Vertical wind shear (VWS), as an important dynamic factor influencing tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR), has a remarkable diurnal cycle of variation over the East Asia–western North Pacific region. The magnitude of tropical cyclone (TC)-experienced VWS has enhanced amplitude but different phases over the South China Sea (SCS) and coastal East China (CEC) compared with that over the open ocean. Diurnal variation in TCR over the SCS shows statistically significant correlation with that of VWS. The convection concentrated in the downshear-left quadrant strengthens markedly when VWS becomes large, thereby delaying the peak rainfall in the inner core of the TC and enhancing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of TCR at ~09 local standard time. Over CEC, the diurnal signal of TCR is very weak but statistically significant in the downshear-left and upshear-right quadrants with opposite phase, illustrating the change in asymmetry of the spatial distribution of TCR induced by the large VWS diurnal cycle. The findings of this study could provide reference for improved forecasting of TCR on the fine temporal scale.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1281","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Skillful seasonal prediction of the boreal summer Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern 北方夏季太平洋-日本遥相关模式的熟练季节预测

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1273

Kan Yi, Chenqi Wang, Yunfei Zhang, Xiang Li, Jian Wang, Renqiang Wen, Mengjiao Du

{"title":"Skillful seasonal prediction of the boreal summer Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern","authors":"Kan Yi, Chenqi Wang, Yunfei Zhang, Xiang Li, Jian Wang, Renqiang Wen, Mengjiao Du","doi":"10.1002/asl.1273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1273","url":null,"abstract":"The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, a dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the western North Pacific during boreal summer, is pivotal in shaping regional climate dynamics. Despite its important implications, accurately predicting the PJ pattern remains challenging due to inherent model biases and uncertainties. This study delves into the impact of model biases on the prediction skill of the PJ pattern and evaluates its predictability using outputs from three operational seasonal forecast models. Our findings elucidate that the spatial structure of the PJ pattern simulated by models introduces substantial diversities in prediction skills. By discerning the variance in PJ teleconnection simulation among models, we unveil the high predictability of the PJ pattern, showcasing its capability for accurate forecasts up to 3 months in advance within the current seasonal forecast models. The predictability of the PJ pattern stems from concurrent El Niño–Southern Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies and its corresponding atmospheric teleconnection processes. Our research underscores the necessity of accounting for model biases in predicting the PJ pattern, and the potential for bolstering seasonal prediction skill through targeted mitigation of these biases.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1273","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Use of stepwise m5 model tree to forecast the P24max based on teleconnection indices 利用逐步m5模型树预测基于遥相关指数的P24max

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1276

Golnar Ghanbarzadeh, Khalil Ghorbani, Meysam Salarijazi, Chooghi Bairam Komaki, Laleh Rezaei Ghaleh

{"title":"Use of stepwise m5 model tree to forecast the P24max based on teleconnection indices","authors":"Golnar Ghanbarzadeh, Khalil Ghorbani, Meysam Salarijazi, Chooghi Bairam Komaki, Laleh Rezaei Ghaleh","doi":"10.1002/asl.1276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1276","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the linear and non-linear multivariate relationships between 25 teleconnection indices (tele-indices) as independent variables and annual P24max as the dependent variable were analyzed using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and decision tree regression models (M5), in selected synoptic weather stations of Iran over a statistical period of 30 years (1992–2021). No strong and statistically significant correlation between each tele-index and P24max was observed. Therefore, it is not appropriate to attribute climate changes in the region to a single factor such as El Niño, but rather consider the combined influence of multiple factors. The M5 model demonstrated higher performance, indicating a non-linear relationship between tele-indices and P24max. The stepwise execution of the M5 model tree showed that the algorithm follows a greedy approach, and it is not necessary to use all variables to predict P24max. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of P24max estimation was found to be 15%, 13%, 15%, 8%, 20%, 14%, and 12% with the coefficients of determination of 0.78, 0.79, 0.72, 0.85, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.84 in Hashemabad-Gorgan, Rasht, Kermanshah, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, and Birjand, respectively. Finally, it is possible to forecast P24max using tele-indices measured in the previous year.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143117900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The profound influence of the North Atlantic Ocean on Northeast Asia: A comprehensive multi-model study 北大西洋对东北亚的深远影响：一个综合的多模式研究

IF 2 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1280

Paul-Arthur Monerie, Buwen Dong, Weiwen Sun, Lixia Zhang

{"title":"The profound influence of the North Atlantic Ocean on Northeast Asia: A comprehensive multi-model study","authors":"Paul-Arthur Monerie, Buwen Dong, Weiwen Sun, Lixia Zhang","doi":"10.1002/asl.1280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1280","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature multidecadal variability on Northeast Asia using a set of sensitivity experiments (with a total of 530 ensemble members). We show that a warming of the North Atlantic Ocean leads to a strong and robust increase in temperature over Northeast Asia, which is replicated by a large majority of ensemble members. We show that the effect of the North Atlantic on Northeast Asia is model and season-dependent. We focus on two seasons, for which response to the North Atlantic Ocean is the most robust (autumn) and the less robust (spring) as indicated by the number of models that simulate a statistically significant change in surface air temperature. We use a clustering method to identify the sources of differences between models in simulating the effects of warming in the North Atlantic. We find that the primary mechanism linking the North Atlantic to Northeast Asia is a perturbation of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern (i.e., of the upper tropospheric atmospheric circulation), which allows modulation of the near-surface atmospheric circulation and an increase in temperature over East Asia. A second mechanism is related to the influence of the North Atlantic on the Pacific Ocean and the resulting effects on atmospheric circulation over Northeast Asia.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"25 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1280","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0