Matthew Patterson, Daniel J. Befort, Julia F. Lockwood, John Slattery, Antje Weisheimer
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The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems
We assess near-surface temperature and sea surface temperature trends in 8 seasonal forecast systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service archive, over the common hindcast period (1993–2016). All but one of the systems show a faster warming of the global-mean, relative to observations in both boreal summer and winter seasons. On average, systems warm at 0.21 K/decade and 0.22 K/decade for winter and summer, respectively, compared to 0.17 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade for ERA5. In summer, forecast systems tend to show an excessive warming of the tropical Pacific, tropical Atlantic and southern mid-latitudes, which contributes to the difference in global warming rates compared to observations. In contrast, greater warming in the northern mid-latitudes contributes most to trend differences for winter. The faster warming of models over this period has important implications for seasonal forecasts of future global and regional temperature and suggests further work is required to understand this bias.
期刊介绍:
Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques.
We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.