C3S季节预报系统地表温度变化趋势的表征

IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Matthew Patterson, Daniel J. Befort, Julia F. Lockwood, John Slattery, Antje Weisheimer
{"title":"C3S季节预报系统地表温度变化趋势的表征","authors":"Matthew Patterson,&nbsp;Daniel J. Befort,&nbsp;Julia F. Lockwood,&nbsp;John Slattery,&nbsp;Antje Weisheimer","doi":"10.1002/asl.1316","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess near-surface temperature and sea surface temperature trends in 8 seasonal forecast systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service archive, over the common hindcast period (1993–2016). All but one of the systems show a faster warming of the global-mean, relative to observations in both boreal summer and winter seasons. On average, systems warm at 0.21 K/decade and 0.22 K/decade for winter and summer, respectively, compared to 0.17 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade for ERA5. In summer, forecast systems tend to show an excessive warming of the tropical Pacific, tropical Atlantic and southern mid-latitudes, which contributes to the difference in global warming rates compared to observations. In contrast, greater warming in the northern mid-latitudes contributes most to trend differences for winter. The faster warming of models over this period has important implications for seasonal forecasts of future global and regional temperature and suggests further work is required to understand this bias.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1316","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems\",\"authors\":\"Matthew Patterson,&nbsp;Daniel J. Befort,&nbsp;Julia F. Lockwood,&nbsp;John Slattery,&nbsp;Antje Weisheimer\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/asl.1316\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We assess near-surface temperature and sea surface temperature trends in 8 seasonal forecast systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service archive, over the common hindcast period (1993–2016). All but one of the systems show a faster warming of the global-mean, relative to observations in both boreal summer and winter seasons. On average, systems warm at 0.21 K/decade and 0.22 K/decade for winter and summer, respectively, compared to 0.17 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade for ERA5. In summer, forecast systems tend to show an excessive warming of the tropical Pacific, tropical Atlantic and southern mid-latitudes, which contributes to the difference in global warming rates compared to observations. In contrast, greater warming in the northern mid-latitudes contributes most to trend differences for winter. The faster warming of models over this period has important implications for seasonal forecasts of future global and regional temperature and suggests further work is required to understand this bias.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50734,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Atmospheric Science Letters\",\"volume\":\"26 8\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1316\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Atmospheric Science Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1316\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric Science Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1316","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

我们评估了哥白尼气候变化服务档案中8个季节预报系统在共同后验期(1993-2016)的近地表温度和海面温度趋势。与北方夏季和冬季的观测结果相比,除一个系统外,其他所有系统都显示出全球平均变暖速度更快。冬季和夏季系统的平均升温速率分别为0.21 K/ 10年和0.22 K/ 10年,而ERA5的平均升温速率分别为0.17 K/ 10年和0.19 K/ 10年。在夏季,预报系统往往显示热带太平洋、热带大西洋和南部中纬度地区过度变暖,这导致全球变暖速率与观测值存在差异。相反,北部中纬度地区的变暖对冬季的趋势差异贡献最大。这一时期模式变暖的速度加快对未来全球和区域温度的季节性预报具有重要意义,并表明需要进一步的工作来理解这种偏差。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems

The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems

The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems

The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems

We assess near-surface temperature and sea surface temperature trends in 8 seasonal forecast systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service archive, over the common hindcast period (1993–2016). All but one of the systems show a faster warming of the global-mean, relative to observations in both boreal summer and winter seasons. On average, systems warm at 0.21 K/decade and 0.22 K/decade for winter and summer, respectively, compared to 0.17 K/decade and 0.19 K/decade for ERA5. In summer, forecast systems tend to show an excessive warming of the tropical Pacific, tropical Atlantic and southern mid-latitudes, which contributes to the difference in global warming rates compared to observations. In contrast, greater warming in the northern mid-latitudes contributes most to trend differences for winter. The faster warming of models over this period has important implications for seasonal forecasts of future global and regional temperature and suggests further work is required to understand this bias.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Atmospheric Science Letters
Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.30%
发文量
73
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信