Atmospheric Science Letters最新文献_第10页

Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States 缩减美国全境的亚季节火灾危险预测技能

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1165

John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, Nicholas J. Nauslar, Katherine C. Hegewisch, Justin L. Huntington

{"title":"Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States","authors":"John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, Nicholas J. Nauslar, Katherine C. Hegewisch, Justin L. Huntington","doi":"10.1002/asl.1165","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1165","url":null,"abstract":"The increasing complexity and impacts of fire seasons in the United States have prompted efforts to improve early warning systems for wildland fire management. Outlooks of potential fire activity at lead-times of several weeks can help in wildland fire resource allocation as well as complement short-term meteorological forecasts for ongoing fire events. Here, we describe an experimental system for developing downscaled ensemble-based subseasonal forecasts for the contiguous US using NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System version 2 model. These forecasts are used to calculate forecasted fire danger indices from the United States (US) National Fire Danger Rating System in addition to forecasts of evaporative demand. We further illustrate the skill of subseasonal forecasts on weekly timescales using hindcasts from 2011 to 2021. Results show that while forecast skill degrades with time, statistically significant week 3 correlative skill was found for 76% and 30% of the contiguous US for Energy Release Component and evaporative demand, respectively. These results highlight the potential value of experimental subseasonal forecasts in complementing existing information streams in weekly-to-monthly fire business decision making for suppression-based decisions and geographic reallocation of resources during the fire season, as well for proactive fire management actions outside of the core fire season.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1165","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46432249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Constraining the uncertainty of urbanization effect on surface air temperature change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China 城市化效应对京津冀地区地表气温变化的不确定性约束

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1160

Yuting He, Jinming Feng, Jun Wang, Lijuan Cao

{"title":"Constraining the uncertainty of urbanization effect on surface air temperature change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China","authors":"Yuting He, Jinming Feng, Jun Wang, Lijuan Cao","doi":"10.1002/asl.1160","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1160","url":null,"abstract":"Quantitative assessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature (SAT) change provides crucial basis for formal detection and attribution analyses of climate change. However, debates about urbanization-related warming bias in documented regional SAT trend still persist, mainly due to different determination of rural stations. Here the urbanization effect on SAT change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China during 1980–2019 is estimated through three kinds of ways (i.e., comparisons between urban and rural stations [arithmetically station-averaged], urban-dominated and rural-dominated patches [patch-weighted mean], and realistic urban and rural areas [area-weighted mean]). The last method explicitly takes urban and rural land cover fractions into account when calculating urban/rural and regional mean SAT trends. Urbanization-induced warming in the annual mean SAT change of urban stations (areas) through the three ways are estimated as 0.159°C, 0.195°C, and 0.138°C per decade, respectively. And urbanization effect on regional averaged annual mean SAT calculated by patch-weighted and area-weighted methods are 0.113°C and 0.050°C per decade, respectively, which account for 33.8% and 14.8% of the total regional warming. The urbanization effect on observed SAT change estimated by considering realistic urban/rural land cover proportions is much lower than traditional station-unweighted way.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1160","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48677229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation anomalies using rainfall Gini index between 1980 and 2022 1980 - 2022年降水Gini指数时空异常分析

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-02-27 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1161

Ghada Sahbeni, Jean Baptiste Pleynet, Konrad Jarocki

{"title":"A spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation anomalies using rainfall Gini index between 1980 and 2022","authors":"Ghada Sahbeni, Jean Baptiste Pleynet, Konrad Jarocki","doi":"10.1002/asl.1161","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1161","url":null,"abstract":"As a reaction to the expanding challenges associated with social susceptibility and their interconnection to diverse environmental threats, parametric insurance plays a key role as an innovation tool in the insurance sector to enhance social resilience to natural disasters and extreme climatic conditions, which can tremendously impact several economic sectors, including agriculture and as a result food security. In this context, this research investigates the association between rainfall Gini index and drought events in Western Europe. For this purpose, we acquired ERA5 data for daily precipitation for five locations from 1980 to 2022. Gini index (GI) values were calculated and analyzed for each location with the Mann–Kendall test at a 5% significance level. As expected, a minimal decreasing trend has been observed for daily precipitation, while an increasing trend was recorded for Gini index. In addition, data on the soil moisture index (SMI) and top drought events were extracted from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) to explore their potential connection with the Gini index over time and space. Although a moderately low to negligible correlation, ranging between −0.27 and 0.02, was found between SMI and GI, a qualitative comparison between major drought episodes and Gini index anomaly showed that similar spatiotemporal patterns are present across the region, particularly for extreme drought events in 1996–1997 and 2003. The current study elucidates the rainfall Gini index's efficiency as a drought indicator for qualitative analysis, yet more work must be conducted to quantitatively evaluate its association with drought magnitude.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1161","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43335072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Tropical mesoscale convective system formation environments 热带中尺度对流系统形成环境

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1152

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Xubin Zeng, Ross D. Dixon, Amir Ouyed, Hui Su, Wenjun Cui

引用次数: 1

A 1D Bayesian inversion of microwave radiances using several radiative properties of solid hydrometeors 利用固体水成物的几种辐射特性反演微波辐射度的一维贝叶斯方法

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-25 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1142

Marylis Barreyat, Philippe Chambon, Jean-François Mahfouf, Ghislain Faure

{"title":"A 1D Bayesian inversion of microwave radiances using several radiative properties of solid hydrometeors","authors":"Marylis Barreyat, Philippe Chambon, Jean-François Mahfouf, Ghislain Faure","doi":"10.1002/asl.1142","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1142","url":null,"abstract":"Numerical weather prediction centers increasingly make use of cloudy and rainy microwave radiances. Currently, the high microwave frequencies are simulated using simplified assumptions regarding the radiative properties of frozen hydrometeors. In particular, one single particle shape is often used for all precipitating frozen particles, all over the globe, and for all cloud types. In this paper, a multi-SSP (single scattering properties) approach for 1D Bayesian inversions is examined. Two experiments were set up: (1) one with three SSPs and (2) one with the previous SSPs plus one which leads to very cold brightness temperature distributions. For that purpose, we used observations from the GPM Microwave Imager radiometer over 2 months period and forecasts from the Météo-France convective scale AROME model. The results showed that mixtures of SSP are chosen by the inversion method for meteorological conditions with low scattering and that a single particle is chosen for those with high scattering to perform the inversions. Despite the fact that no specific weather scenes were found to be associated with a particular SSP the most efficient scattering particles can be favored for some of them.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44272783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Record-breaking rainfall accumulations in eastern China produced by Typhoon In-fa (2021) 台风“台风”(2021年)在中国东部产生破纪录的降雨量

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-13 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1153

Xin Huang, Johnny C. L. Chan, Ruifen Zhan, Zifeng Yu, Rijin Wan

{"title":"Record-breaking rainfall accumulations in eastern China produced by Typhoon In-fa (2021)","authors":"Xin Huang, Johnny C. L. Chan, Ruifen Zhan, Zifeng Yu, Rijin Wan","doi":"10.1002/asl.1153","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1153","url":null,"abstract":"Persistent heavy rainfall produced by western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) can lead to widespread flooding and landslides in Asian countries. On July 2021, unprecedent rainfall amount occurred when Typhoon In-fa passed through the highly populated eastern China. While the associated synoptic features have been analyzed, the extreme characteristics and return periods of rainfall induced by In-fa remain unexplored. Analyses of rainfall data from a WNP TC database of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) show that Typhoon In-fa not only produces record-breaking rainfall accumulations at individual surface stations, but generates unprecedent rainfall amounts for the whole area of eastern China. Quantitatively, 2, 4, 11, 24 and 55 stations are exposed to once in 200-, 100-, 50-, 20- and 10-year extreme TC rainfall accumulations, respectively, and total rainfall at 75 stations reaches a record high since 1980. Overall, the return period is up to ~481 years for the total rainfall amount accumulated in eastern China during the 1980–2019 baseline. The extremely long rainfall duration is identified as key to the torrential rains in the Yangtze River Delta before In-fa changes its direction of movement from northwestward to northeastward, while the extreme rain rate plays a dominant role in the northern areas afterwards. Probabilities of occurrence of such an unprecedented TC rainfall event have increased in most (~75%) of the eastern China during the period of 2000–2019 compared with those during 1980–1999. Our study highlights the likely increase in risk of extreme TC-induced rainfall accumulations which should be considered in disaster risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1153","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43834916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Moisture changes with increasing summer precipitation in Qilian and Tienshan mountainous areas 祁连山和天山山区夏季降水量增加时的水分变化

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-12 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1154

Qianrong Ma, Zhongwai Li, Zhiheng Chen, Tao Su, Yongping Wu, Guolin Feng

{"title":"Moisture changes with increasing summer precipitation in Qilian and Tienshan mountainous areas","authors":"Qianrong Ma, Zhongwai Li, Zhiheng Chen, Tao Su, Yongping Wu, Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1002/asl.1154","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1154","url":null,"abstract":"The precipitation in the Qilian (QMA) and Tienshan (TMA) mountain areas is one of the main sources of subsurface and surface water in northwestern China (NWC). Based on two datasets, CN05.1 and station-observed daily precipitation, we found that summer precipitation in 1979–2020 exhibited an increasing trend in NWC. The results of rotation empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis also separated the increased precipitation patterns in the QMA and TMA from the other REOF modes; the proportion of the precipitation of these areas to the total NWC summer precipitation substantially increased (0.12%⋅year−1 and 0.03%⋅year−1, respectively). According to the moisture budget, the evaporation changes in the QMA and TMA were coherently coupled with precipitation, which suggested the feedback between increasing evaporation and precipitation with the recently warming climate. The precipitation increase was larger than that of evaporation, indicating a net wetting trend in the QMA and TMA. The increase in zonal horizontal and vertical moisture advection terms contributed more to the increased precipitation in the QMA. The increase in meridional moisture advection contributed more to the increased precipitation in the TMA. We concluded comprehensive frameworks of the water vapor transport in climate change in mountain areas in NWC which aimed to contribute to the understanding of arid region hydrology.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45383944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A deep learning ensemble approach for predicting tropical cyclone rapid intensification 预测热带气旋快速增强的深度学习集成方法

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1151

Buo-Fu Chen, Yu-Te Kuo, Treng-Shi Huang

{"title":"A deep learning ensemble approach for predicting tropical cyclone rapid intensification","authors":"Buo-Fu Chen, Yu-Te Kuo, Treng-Shi Huang","doi":"10.1002/asl.1151","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1151","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical in operational forecasting. Statistical schemes rely on human-driven feature extraction and predictor correlation to predict TC intensities. Deep learning provides an opportunity to further improve the prediction if data, including satellite images of TC convection and conventional environmental predictors, can be properly integrated by deep neural networks. This study shows that deep learning yields enhanced intensity and RI prediction performance by simultaneously handling the human-defined environmental/TC-related parameters and information extracted from satellite images. From operational and practical perspectives, we use an ensemble of 20 deep-learning models with different neural network designs and input combinations to predict intensity distributions at +24 h. With the intensity distribution based on the ensemble forecast, forecasters can easily predict a deterministic intensity value demanded in operations and be aware of the chance of RI and the prediction uncertainty. Compared with the operational forecasts provided for western Pacific TCs, the results of the deep learning ensemble achieve higher RI detection probabilities and lower false-alarm rates.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1151","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48553705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

A deep learning framework for analyzing cloud characteristics of aggregated convection using cloud-resolving model simulations 使用云解析模型模拟分析聚集对流云特征的深度学习框架

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1150

Yi-Chang Chen, Chien-Ming Wu, Wei-Ting Chen

{"title":"A deep learning framework for analyzing cloud characteristics of aggregated convection using cloud-resolving model simulations","authors":"Yi-Chang Chen, Chien-Ming Wu, Wei-Ting Chen","doi":"10.1002/asl.1150","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1150","url":null,"abstract":"This study introduces a framework to extract the high-dimensional nonlinear relationships among state variables for aggregated convection. The prototype of such a framework is developed that applies the convolutional neural network models (CNN models) to retrieve the cloud characteristics from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations. CNN model prediction factors are hidden in the high dimensional weighted parameters in each neural network layer. Therefore, we can dig out relevant physics processes by iterating the CNN models' training process and eliminating the features with the physics explanation we can provide at a given stage. Within a few iterations, explainable nonlinear relationships among variables can be provided. We identified that the averaged cloud water path (CWP), the maximum value of CWP in each cloud, and the cloud coverage rate are essential for identifying aggregation. Furthermore, by analyzing the encoded channels of the CNN model, we found a strong relationship between aggregation, cloud peripherals, and fractal dimensions. The results suggest that the important nonlinear cloud characteristics for identifying the aggregation can be captured with the proper adjustment and limitation of the input data to the CNN models. Our framework provides a possibility that we can explore the high dimensional relationship between the physics process with the assistance of the CNN model.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1150","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48676829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on reanalysis precipitation data during 1950–2020 over the Ganjiang River Basin and its surroundings, China 基于1950-2020年甘江流域及周边地区再分析降水资料的极端降水时空特征

IF 3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.1002/asl.1149

Hongyi Li, Ameng Zou, Daqi Kong, Ziqiang Ma

{"title":"Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on reanalysis precipitation data during 1950–2020 over the Ganjiang River Basin and its surroundings, China","authors":"Hongyi Li, Ameng Zou, Daqi Kong, Ziqiang Ma","doi":"10.1002/asl.1149","DOIUrl":"10.1002/asl.1149","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate knowledge on spatiotemporal characteristics of historical precipitation extremes could provide great potential guidance for preventing hydrological-related disasters caused by precipitation extremes in the future. On the basis of the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis precipitation data by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5, 0.25°, 1 hourly, 1950–2020) with high spatiotemporal resolutions, continuity and quality, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Ganjiang River Basin and its surroundings during 1950–2020. The main conclusions include, but are not limited to, the following: (1) In general, precipitation extremes present increasing trends over most areas of the basin and its surroundings. For instance, areas showing upward trends of R10, SDII and PRCPTOT account for ~93.45%, ~66.36%, and ~88.18%, respectively. (2) The spatiotemporal variations of precipitation extremes over the Ganjiang River Basin and its surroundings show obvious northwest–southeast differences. For instance, precipitation extremes are increasing in the southeastern parts, but they are decreasing in the northwestern parts. (3) High-value clusters are also identified in the southeast (e.g., R10, SDII, R95P and PRCPTOT, accounting for ~20.71%, ~20.72%, ~25.88%, and ~22.56%, respectively) and low-value clusters in the northwest (e.g., Rx5day, SDII and R95P, accounting for ~18.05%, ~27.03%, and ~21.18%, respectively). (4) The spatiotemporal variations of precipitation extremes in both the southeast and northwest are quite stable. For example, regions with less than five abrupt change points of R10, SDII, and PRCPTOT account for 77.49%, 54.84%, and 81.74%, respectively.","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42342391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0