{"title":"Processes Underlying the Year-To-Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature","authors":"Angela Jiang, Jonathan H. Jiang, Bin Guan","doi":"10.1002/asl.1307","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In addition to the global mean surface temperature (GMST), accurately predicting regional features associated with GMST changes is essential for effective climate policymaking at the regional level. This study investigates regional patterns of surface temperature and precipitation associated with interannual GMST variability and evaluates their representation in state-of-the-art climate models. Although the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on GMST variability is well recognized, it accounts for less than 50% of the total interannual variability. A significant portion of GMST warming, independent of ENSO, is closely associated with widespread regional warming—most notably over North America—along with increased atmospheric river activity and enhanced precipitation along its west coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the ENSO-independent component of GMST variability, thereby introducing uncertainties into our interpretation of GMST changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":50734,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Science Letters","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1307","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric Science Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1307","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In addition to the global mean surface temperature (GMST), accurately predicting regional features associated with GMST changes is essential for effective climate policymaking at the regional level. This study investigates regional patterns of surface temperature and precipitation associated with interannual GMST variability and evaluates their representation in state-of-the-art climate models. Although the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on GMST variability is well recognized, it accounts for less than 50% of the total interannual variability. A significant portion of GMST warming, independent of ENSO, is closely associated with widespread regional warming—most notably over North America—along with increased atmospheric river activity and enhanced precipitation along its west coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the ENSO-independent component of GMST variability, thereby introducing uncertainties into our interpretation of GMST changes.
期刊介绍：
Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques.
We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
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