Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans最新文献_第3页

Surface wave-induced modulation of submesoscale fronts: A process governed by model resolution 亚中尺度锋面的表面波诱导调制：一个由模式分辨率控制的过程

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101645

Cheng Peng , Peng Wang , Dongxiao Wang

{"title":"Surface wave-induced modulation of submesoscale fronts: A process governed by model resolution","authors":"Cheng Peng , Peng Wang , Dongxiao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Submesoscale fronts in marginal seas typically exhibit complex generation mechanisms that are highly dependent on local background flows and various forcing factors, such as winds, tides, etc. Among these forcing factors, the influence of waves remains under-research. This study investigates the effects of surface gravity waves on submesoscale fronts in the Northern South China Sea using numerical simulations. Simulation results indicate that the intensity of submesoscale fronts is significantly affected by waves. However, unlike previous studies in which the wave-induced Stokes vortex force is found to enhance frontal structures, in the present study, the Stokes vortex force is weak and negligible at kilometer-scale model resolution. Instead, the Stokes Coriolis force, another wave-induced force, contributes to the momentum balance, resulting in the transition of turbulent thermal wind (TTW) to Stokes-TTW at the submesoscale fronts. Furthermore, the Stokes Coriolis force triggers an anti-Stokes flow, which opposes the Eulerian current in the study area. As a result, the current is weakened, reducing the current-induced frontogenesis and ultimately diminishing the intensity of submesoscale fronts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101645"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sensitivity analysis of the physics options in the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its impact on storm surge simulations during two tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal 天气研究与预报模式中物理选项的敏感性分析及其对孟加拉湾两个热带气旋风暴潮模拟的影响

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101643

Vyshnavi Sai Yalla , A.N.V. Satyanarayana , P.L.N. Murty , K.Siva Srinivas

{"title":"Sensitivity analysis of the physics options in the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its impact on storm surge simulations during two tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal","authors":"Vyshnavi Sai Yalla , A.N.V. Satyanarayana , P.L.N. Murty , K.Siva Srinivas","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101643","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101643","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones and associated storm surges over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is crucial for disaster risk reduction and coastal planning. In the present study, a high-resolution mesoscale model, WRF-ARW 4.0 is used and conducted sensitivity experiments with eight combinations of four cloud microphysics schemes (Lin, WSM6, Thompson, WDM6) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (YSU and MYJ) to evaluated the best combination in simulating the outer and inner core wind intensity and cyclone track of two severe cyclones, Amphan and Yaas over BoB. The simulations of wind and cyclone tracks are validated along the best track of the India Meteorological Department. The analysis of the results reveals that the combination of physical schemes, Thompson with YSU, and WSM6 with YSU, reasonably captures the inner and outer core winds and track of cyclones with a mean error of 4.2–8.5 ms<sup>−1</sup> and 48–105 km, respectively. The simulations of the eight combinations of physics schemes are utilised in a coupled hydrodynamic model of ADCIRC and SWAN to assess storm surges and significant wave heights. The simulated storm surges are validated using available tide gauge observations at Paradip (20.2817° N, 86.6727° E) and Dhamra (20.8237° N, 86.9640° E) port for the Amphan and Yaas cyclone, and simulations of significant wave heights are validated against moored buoy observations at BD08 (18.1613° N, 89.6702° E) and BD09 (17.8563° N, 89.6772° E) locations. Statistical analysis using Taylor diagrams revealed that the WRF model with the two physics combinations, Thompson–YSU and WSM6–YSU, demonstrated improved accuracy in predicting storm surges and significant wave heights during both cyclones. The findings identify the performance of an appropriate physics combination of the WRF model for improved storm surge predictions over the BoB cyclones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101643"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145925474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Coastal water level trends and ENSO-related variability in the northeastern Mekong Delta (1979–2024) 湄公河三角洲东北部沿海水位趋势及enso相关变率（1979-2024）

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101648

Vu Duy Vinh , Sylvain Ouillon , Nguyen Minh Hai

{"title":"Coastal water level trends and ENSO-related variability in the northeastern Mekong Delta (1979–2024)","authors":"Vu Duy Vinh , Sylvain Ouillon , Nguyen Minh Hai","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal water levels in the northeastern Mekong Delta exhibit pronounced long-term trends and interannual variability linked to large-scale climate forcing. Using tide-gauge observations at the Vam Kenh station (1979–2024) and CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) satellite altimetry (1993–2024), we assess long-term, seasonal, and ENSO-related water level variability. The results reveal a statistically significant and evidence of recent acceleration inferred from sub-period trends in mean relative water level, with rates exceeding approximately 6 mm yr⁻¹ over the last two decades (2005–2024), compared to about 5 mm yr⁻¹ over the full 46-year record. Seasonal variability shows modulation of the rise by the monsoon cycle, with faster increases during the northeast monsoon and slower rises during the southwest monsoon. Interannual variability is clearly modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with strong La Niña events elevating water levels by up to about 5 cm in anomaly magnitude, while El Niño phases are generally associated with negative anomalies. Atmospheric pressure acts as a secondary control, contributing approximately 5–20 % of interannual variance through the inverse barometer effect. Tide-gauge and CMEMS data exhibit strong agreement (r = 0.95), supporting their combined use for coastal monitoring. Overall, the results highlight accelerating relative rise in a subsiding deltaic environment, with important implications for coastal vulnerability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147394352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk mapping of dynamic dust storms and multi-hazard maritime navigation in the red sea using machine learning and MODIS Data 利用机器学习和MODIS数据绘制红海动态沙尘暴和多灾种海上航行风险图

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101621

Yazeed Alsubhi , Bassam M. Aljahdali , Ayman F. Alghanmi , Hussain T. Sulaimani , Ahmad E. Samman

{"title":"Risk mapping of dynamic dust storms and multi-hazard maritime navigation in the red sea using machine learning and MODIS Data","authors":"Yazeed Alsubhi , Bassam M. Aljahdali , Ayman F. Alghanmi , Hussain T. Sulaimani , Ahmad E. Samman","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dust storms represent a significant hazard to maritime navigation, particularly in regions such as Saudi Arabia, where frequent dust events, driven by vast desert landscapes and oceanic wind patterns, reduce visibility and disrupt maritime operations. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for evaluating visibility risks posed by dust storms in Saudi Arabian maritime zones, specifically focusing on the Red Sea. The methodology considers MODIS AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) data, wind speed, and cloud cover to develop a dynamic risk assessment model using random forest (RF) for dust storm detection and visibility risk prediction. The model integrates spatial data layers for environmental factors (wind, waves, and depth), creating seasonal risk maps that dynamically adjust based on changing environmental conditions. GIS technology was used to visualize risk zones, and the RF model provided data-driven weighting of risk factors. The model’s performance was validated using metrics such as probability of detection (POD) (0.92), probability of false detection (PFD) (0.05), and equitable threat score (ETS) (0.85), demonstrating superior accuracy over traditional methods like analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and CRiteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC). The findings indicate that Autumn represents the most hazardous season for maritime navigation due to frequent dust storms, with the central Red Sea being the most impacted area. The results demonstrate the potential of this approach for improving navigation safety and early warning tools in the Red Sea and similar arid coastal regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101621"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cyclic shear resistance of sand–fines mixtures using clean sand as baseline 以净砂为基准的砂-细砂混合料循环抗剪性能

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101640

Layal Jradi , Jean-Claude Dupla , Bassel Seif El Dine , Jean Canou , Noreen Sher Akbar

引用次数: 0

Multidirectional swell dynamics in the Indian ocean during the austral autumn and coastal flooding implications for the southwest coast of India 南秋期间印度洋的多向膨胀动力学及对印度西南海岸的沿海洪水影响

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101634

P.S. Swathy Krishna , M. Ramesh , C.T. Tejavath , N. Sreejith , Vijay Kumar Vishnu , L. Sheela Nair

{"title":"Multidirectional swell dynamics in the Indian ocean during the austral autumn and coastal flooding implications for the southwest coast of India","authors":"P.S. Swathy Krishna , M. Ramesh , C.T. Tejavath , N. Sreejith , Vijay Kumar Vishnu , L. Sheela Nair","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes two significant swell events along the southwest coast of India during March and April of 2020, characterized by multi-directional swells originating from an extensive swell generation area spanning the Indian Atlantic Southern Ocean (IASO) interface to western Australia. The research reveals the critical role of Cut off Low (CoL) formations and Southern Ocean current systems in modulating storm propagation and enhancing swell impact. In this study, through sophisticated spectral analysis, we show the presence of diverse long-distance swell systems in nearshore environments, demonstrating complex wave propagation mechanisms. Intricate swell-to-swell interactions and short-span eddy formations were observed to redirect swell patterns towards the Arabian Sea, significantly altering wave dynamics. The coastal state was predominantly influenced by swell, with total water levels increasing by ∼33 % and ∼34 % during the flooding events, predominantly attributable to wave dynamics rather than the tidal influences. The substantial rise in swell-induced flooding events along the southern southwest coast of India presents a critical environmental concern. Consequently, this study proposes developing a comprehensive metadata collection system for early warning mechanisms and provides nuanced insights into surface circulation within the Southwest Indian Ocean during the Austral autumn. By elucidating the complex interactions of eddy formations in the SEIO, the study offers crucial predictive potential for oceanic weather and climatic events in the Indian Ocean, with significant implications for future regional engineering activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101634"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigation of immiscible couple stress nanofluid and micropolar fluid flow through porous beds with different permeability 非混相耦合应力纳米流体和微极流体在不同渗透率孔隙层中的流动研究

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101638

Alpana Srivastava , Ajit Kumar , Akhilesh Chandra Pandey

{"title":"Investigation of immiscible couple stress nanofluid and micropolar fluid flow through porous beds with different permeability","authors":"Alpana Srivastava , Ajit Kumar , Akhilesh Chandra Pandey","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101638","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101638","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present work examines the behavior of immiscible couple stress fluid flow between two homogeneous porous beds with different permeability in which a couple stress nanofluid flows in region-1 and a couple stress micropolar fluid flows in region-2. This study aims to analyze the influence of couple stress on immiscible fluids flow with various Reynolds numbers and porous beds of different permeability. The fluid motion within the specified region is induced by a constant pressure gradient along the direction of flow, and Beavers–Joseph slip boundary conditions are imposed on the porous and fluid interface. Linear Differential Equation is being used to solve the mathematical model. The expressions for fluid linear velocity, slip velocity, microrotational velocity, flow rate, and wall shear stress are achieved within the confines of a structured form. The graphical representations demonstrate the impact of various physical parameters associated with the proposed model on velocity and flow rate. The significant finding of this study is that the maximum flow rate obtained at the highest Reynolds number, while an increase in couple stress parameters enhances the linear velocities of both immiscible fluids. Furthermore, the findings of this investigation are in agreement with the results reported in previous studies, thereby validating the precision of the present analysis. The design of present work holds immense potential for advancing oil recovery techniques in the petroleum industry by assessment of drag reduction and flow control due to couple-stress and micropolar effects, enhancing the understanding of fluid flow within reservoir rocks, and contributing to innovative applications in biomedical engineering used for flow of biofluids with microstructure (e.g., blood exhibiting micropolar behavior) through porous tissues or engineered scaffolds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 101638"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Moisture build-up and thermodynamic processes in precipitation regimes during the southwest monsoon over a tropical coastal region 热带沿海地区西南季风降水过程中的水汽积累和热力过程

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101601

Anusha Andrews , E.A. Resmi , R.K. Sumesh , Sneha Sunil , A.R. Aswini , Nita Sukumar , Sumit Kumar , A. Sabarinath , Tejavath Charan Teja , Dharmadas Jash

{"title":"Moisture build-up and thermodynamic processes in precipitation regimes during the southwest monsoon over a tropical coastal region","authors":"Anusha Andrews , E.A. Resmi , R.K. Sumesh , Sneha Sunil , A.R. Aswini , Nita Sukumar , Sumit Kumar , A. Sabarinath , Tejavath Charan Teja , Dharmadas Jash","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101601","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101601","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The thermodynamical and microphysical characteristics of precipitation systems in shallow, Bright Band (BB), and Non-Bright Band (NBB) categories over a coastal site in Thiruvananthapuram, India were investigated. Radar reflectivity and fall velocity profiles, and surface rain rates were utilized to categorize the precipitation systems in June-July 2022. Shallow and NBB events exhibit a significant increase in humidity within the 4–8 km layer around 10–20 min prior to the onset of precipitation. In contrast, BB events maintain a deeper humid layer extending from the surface up to 8 km, with high liquid water content observed at least 30 min before precipitation, supporting widespread precipitation over the coastal region. In both NBB and shallow events, a sharp increase in liquid water path, integrated water vapor, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) occurred ∼10 min before rainfall onset. The substantially higher magnitudes of moisture and instability parameters in NBB systems indicate convective development, while the relatively lower values in shallow systems reflect weak instability and limited vertical growth, resulting in short-lived, low-intensity precipitation. BB systems maintained elevated and steady moisture with minimal variation in CAPE, supporting prolonged stratiform rain. The study shows that shallow systems are primarily influenced by low-level moisture, whereas BB and NBB systems rely on deeper mid- and upper-tropospheric moisture to sustain precipitation. CAPE influences rain rates and raindrop size distributions, with NBB events pronounced response, marked by intense rainfall and broader drop spectra.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 101601"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145321504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Storm surge spatio-temporal modelling using machine learning on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula 尤卡坦半岛东海岸使用机器学习的风暴潮时空模型

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101605

Alberto Alatriste-Domínguez , Zobeida Jezabel Guzmán-Zavaleta , José Manuel Cabrera-Miranda

{"title":"Storm surge spatio-temporal modelling using machine learning on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula","authors":"Alberto Alatriste-Domínguez , Zobeida Jezabel Guzmán-Zavaleta , José Manuel Cabrera-Miranda","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing countries lie vulnerable to increasingly intense tropical cyclones. The storm surge caused by nine tropical cyclones is analyzed using machine learning models. The tropical cyclones’ data is transformed into an eight-feature dataset. A fitted artificial neural network (ANN) and eight categories of other machine learning models are constructed and trained with the dataset. The effect and performance of forecasting windows is assessed. The fitted ANN and Ensemble Boosted Trees were the best performing models, as they reach an RMSE as low as 2 cm. The models manage to extract the relationships between the parameters due to their performance on the unknown testing dataset. The models are then assessed in a spatio-temporal scenario on historical tropical cyclones. This application develops insights into its response’s adjustment to observed elevations along the coast. Overall, the models accurately estimate the extent and duration of the storm surge where tide stations are present and highlight regions of potential interest due to higher storm surges for research and resource investment. This work contributes towards the application of ML models in developing countries with low infrastructure density and data availability, by increasing spatial density of the storm surge data, with the benefit of low computational costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 101605"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An optimized network model for sea level height prediction integrating OLSDBO and BiTCN-BiGRU 结合OLSDBO和BiTCN-BiGRU的海平面高度预测网络模型优化

IF 2 4区地球科学

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101598

Huan Wu , Shijian Zhou , Fengwei Wang , Tieding Lu , Xiao Li

{"title":"An optimized network model for sea level height prediction integrating OLSDBO and BiTCN-BiGRU","authors":"Huan Wu , Shijian Zhou , Fengwei Wang , Tieding Lu , Xiao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable sea level predictions are essential for ensuring the sustainability and ecological protection of coastal areas. An adaptive deep learning sea level height prediction hybrid model based on the improved dung beetle optimizer (OLSDBO), bidirectional temporal convolutional network (BiTCN), and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) is proposed in this paper. Initially, we optimize the BiTCN-BiGRU hyperparameters via OLSDBO. Sea level data are fed into the BiTCN, where bidirectional temporal convolutions with dilated causal layers and residual connections extract hidden information. Next, the extracted features are passed into the BiGRU to learn the dynamic changes in both directions, thereby capturing the temporal dependencies within the sequence. Finally, the optimal model prediction results are obtained. The model was evaluated via Australian tide gauge data and compared with nine relevant models. The experimental results show that the OLSDBO-BiTCN-BiGRU outperforms the comparison models, indicating its strong modeling capabilities. To address the randomness in neural network initialization, statistical comparisons were conducted with ten random seeds, confirming robustness. When applied to satellite altimetry data from the East China Sea, the model indicated a 3.28 ± 0.26 mm/a rise (1993–2023), corroborating the official bulletins. This study introduces a novel framework and practical pathway for regional sea level prediction, offering practical value for coastal management and climate adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"112 ","pages":"Article 101598"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0