Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546

Zhi Li , Zecheng Xu , Yue Fang

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme meteorological phenomena, characterized by intense winds and torrential rainfall, which pose severe risks to coastal inhabitants and infrastructure. In the South China Sea (SCS), TCs predominantly form during the main season from May to October. A comprehensive analysis of TC genesis within the SCS during May–September from 1949 to 2021 reveals a significant upward trend in TC frequency. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving this trend, we conducted diagnostic analyses of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and examined variations in relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (SH). Our results demonstrate that anomalously elevated mid-level RH is the primary driver of the increasing frequency of locally generated SCS TCs, with this rise in RH attributed to changes in SH primarily influenced by vertical advection processes. These advection processes are largely facilitated by Ekman pumping, driven by the warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the SCS. This study establishes a robust linkage between the increasing TC frequency and the warming SST trend in the SCS, underscoring the profound influence of regional climate change on TC activity in the region.

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1949-2021年源自南海的热带气旋的趋势和驱动因素

热带气旋是一种以强风和暴雨为特征的极端气象现象，对沿海居民和基础设施构成严重威胁。在南中国海（SCS）， TCs主要形成于5 - 10月的主要季节。对1949 - 2021年5 - 9月南海内TC发生的综合分析表明，TC频率呈显著上升趋势。为了阐明驱动这一趋势的潜在机制，我们对成因潜力指数（GPI）进行了诊断分析，并研究了相对湿度（RH）和比湿度（SH）的变化。我们的研究结果表明，异常升高的中层RH是局部生成的SCS tc频率增加的主要驱动因素，而RH的上升主要归因于垂直平流过程影响的SH变化。这些平流过程在很大程度上是由南海海表温度（SST）变暖驱动的Ekman泵送促进的。本研究建立了南海TC频率增加与海温变暖趋势之间的强大联系，强调了区域气候变化对区域TC活动的深刻影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans is an international journal for research related to the dynamical and physical processes governing atmospheres, oceans and climate. Authors are invited to submit articles, short contributions or scholarly reviews in the following areas: •Dynamic meteorology •Physical oceanography •Geophysical fluid dynamics •Climate variability and climate change •Atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-cryosphere interactions •Prediction and predictability •Scale interactions Papers of theoretical, computational, experimental and observational investigations are invited, particularly those that explore the fundamental nature - or bring together the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary aspects - of dynamical and physical processes at all scales. Papers that explore air-sea interactions and the coupling between atmospheres, oceans, and other components of the climate system are particularly welcome.