Environmetrics最新文献

{"title":"Automatic deforestation detectors based on frequentist statistics and their extensions for other spatial objects","authors":"Jesper Muren,&nbsp;Vilhelm Niklasson,&nbsp;Dmitry Otryakhin,&nbsp;Maxim Romashin","doi":"10.1002/env.2848","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2848","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article is devoted to the problem of detection of forest and nonforest areas on Earth images. We propose two statistical methods to tackle this problem: one based on multiple hypothesis testing with parametric distribution families, another one—on nonparametric tests. The parametric approach is novel in the literature and relevant to a larger class of problems—detection of natural objects, as well as anomaly detection. We develop mathematical background for each of the two methods, build self-sufficient detection algorithms using them and discuss practical aspects of their implementation. We also compare our algorithms with each other and with those from standard machine learning using satellite data.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2848","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140599481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation and selection for spatial zero-inflated count models","authors":"Chung-Wei Shen,&nbsp;Chun-Shu Chen","doi":"10.1002/env.2847","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2847","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The count data arise in many scientific areas. Our concerns here focus on spatial count responses with an excessive number of zeros and a set of available covariates. Estimating model parameters and selecting important covariates for spatial zero-inflated count models are both essential. Importantly, to alleviate deviations from model assumptions, we propose a spatial zero-inflated Poisson-like methodology to model this type of data, which relies only on assumptions for the first two moments of spatial count responses. We then design an effective iterative estimation procedure between the generalized estimating equation and the weighted least squares method to respectively estimate the regression coefficients and the variogram of the data model. Moreover, the stabilization of estimators is evaluated via a block jackknife technique. Furthermore, a distribution-free model selection criterion based on an estimate of the mean squared error of the estimated mean structure is proposed to select the best subset of covariates. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies under various scenarios, and a real dataset regarding the number of maternal deaths in Mozambique is analyzed for illustration.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140599396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Testing for galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis using the notion of block-exogeneity","authors":"Umberto Triacca","doi":"10.1002/env.2846","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2846","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this article, we consider the notion of block-exogeneity and establish a characterization of it. We use this characterization to propose a procedure to test for block-exogeneity in a trivariate system. The proposed procedure has been applied to test the so-called galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis. The galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis suggests the existence of an indirect solar influence on Earth's climate. Our results seem to imply that this hypothesis does not hold. In particular, we find that the global temperature is block-exogenous with respect to both sunspot numbers (a measure of the solar activity) and galactic cosmic rays. This implies that the supposed indirect causal link from solar activity to temperature (through cosmic rays), postulated by the galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis, does not appear to exist.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140361323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fast parameter estimation of generalized extreme value distribution using neural networks","authors":"Sweta Rai,&nbsp;Alexis Hoffman,&nbsp;Soumendra Lahiri,&nbsp;Douglas W. Nychka,&nbsp;Stephan R. Sain,&nbsp;Soutir Bandyopadhyay","doi":"10.1002/env.2845","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and so forth. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides generalized extreme value distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{CO}}_2 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> (pre-industrial), 700 ppm <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{CO}}_2 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> (future conditions), and 1400 ppm <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{CO}}_2 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140129341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recursive nearest neighbor co-kriging models for big multi-fidelity spatial data sets","authors":"Si Cheng,&nbsp;Bledar A. Konomi,&nbsp;Georgios Karagiannis,&nbsp;Emily L. Kang","doi":"10.1002/env.2844","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2844","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Big datasets are gathered daily from different remote sensing platforms. Recently, statistical co-kriging models, with the help of scalable techniques, have been able to combine such datasets by using spatially varying bias corrections. The associated Bayesian inference for these models is usually facilitated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which present (sometimes prohibitively) slow mixing and convergence because they require the simulation of high-dimensional random effect vectors from their posteriors given large datasets. To enable fast inference in big data spatial problems, we propose the recursive nearest neighbor co-kriging (RNNC) model. Based on this model, we develop two computationally efficient inferential procedures: (a) the collapsed RNNC which reduces the posterior sampling space by integrating out the latent processes, and (b) the conjugate RNNC, an MCMC free inference which significantly reduces the computational time without sacrificing prediction accuracy. An important highlight of conjugate RNNC is that it enables fast inference in massive multifidelity data sets by avoiding expensive integration algorithms. The efficient computational and good predictive performances of our proposed algorithms are demonstrated on benchmark examples and the analysis of the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder data gathered from two NOAA polar orbiting satellites in which we managed to reduce the computational time from multiple hours to just a few minutes.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2844","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139969576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sampling design methods for making improved lake management decisions","authors":"Vilja Koski,&nbsp;Jo Eidsvik","doi":"10.1002/env.2842","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2842","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ecological status of lakes is important for understanding an ecosystem's biodiversity as well as for service water quality and policies related to land use and agricultural run-off. If the status is weak, then decisions about management alternatives need to be made. We assess the value of information of lake monitoring in Finland, where lakes are abundant. With reasonable ecological values and restoration costs, the value of information analysis can be compared with the survey's costs. Data are worth gathering if the expected value from the data exceeds the costs. From existing data, we specify a hierarchical Bayesian spatial logistic regression model for the ecological status of lakes. We then rely on functional approximations and Laplace approximations to get closed-form expressions for the value of information of a sampling design. The case study contains thousands of lakes. The combinatorially difficult design problem is to wisely pick the right subset of lakes for data gathering. To solve this optimization problem, we study the performance of various heuristics: greedy forward algorithms, exchange algorithms and Bayesian optimization approaches. The value of information increases quickly when adding lakes to a small design but then flattens out. Good designs are usually composed of lakes that are difficult to manage, while also balancing a variety of covariates and geographic coverage. The designs achieved by forward selection are reasonably good, but we can outperform them with the more nuanced search algorithms. Statistical designs clearly outperform other designs selected according to simpler criteria.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2842","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139771804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Penalized distributed lag interaction model: Air pollution, birth weight, and neighborhood vulnerability","authors":"Danielle Demateis,&nbsp;Kayleigh P. Keller,&nbsp;David Rojas-Rueda,&nbsp;Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou,&nbsp;Ander Wilson","doi":"10.1002/env.2843","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2843","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy has a substantial public health impact. Epidemiological evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution and low birth weight. A popular method to estimate this association while identifying windows of susceptibility is a distributed lag model (DLM), which regresses an outcome onto exposure history observed at multiple time points. However, the standard DLM framework does not allow for modification of the association between repeated measures of exposure and the outcome. We propose a distributed lag interaction model that allows modification of the exposure-time-response associations across individuals by including an interaction between a continuous modifying variable and the exposure history. Our model framework is an extension of a standard DLM that uses a cross-basis, or bi-dimensional function space, to simultaneously describe both the modification of the exposure-response relationship and the temporal structure of the exposure data. Through simulations, we showed that our model with penalization out-performs a standard DLM when the true exposure-time-response associations vary by a continuous variable. Using a Colorado, USA birth cohort, we estimated the association between birth weight and ambient fine particulate matter air pollution modified by an area-level metric of health and social adversities from Colorado EnviroScreen.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2843","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139662388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2023 Editorial Collaborators","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/env.2841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2841","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139474034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural equation models for simultaneous modeling of air pollutants","authors":"Mariaelena Bottazzi Schenone,&nbsp;Elena Grimaccia,&nbsp;Maurizio Vichi","doi":"10.1002/env.2837","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2837","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides a new modeling for air pollution, simultaneously taking into account the six main pollutants (PM10 and PM2.5, Sulphate Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, ground level Ozone concentrations) and their key determinants, employing Structural Equation Models (SEMs). The model is able to estimate the complex links among air pollutants, often neglected in literature, and identifies specific drivers of air pollution. In literature, indexes of air pollution achieved using a fully statistical methodology have not been proposed yet. Indeed, an added value of this proposal is the statistical procedure itself, which can be applied also to obtain indexes modeling different phenomena. In particular, in this study, the new Air Pollution Index (API) is based on a modeling approach that allows to assess, through statistical criteria, the goodness of fit of the SEM in modeling pollutants and the significance of their determinants. The performance of the new index is assessed using air quality data for municipal European areas, which are characterized by different socioeconomic, geographical, and meteorological features. SEMs are estimated and evaluated in terms of best fit and model complexity. The index resulting by the best SEM is compared with the well-established Air Quality Index (AQI). The new API is validated by means of a sensitivity analysis, performed with a simulation study. Finally, to visualize the meaningfulness of the obtained results, a model-based cluster analysis is estimated on the municipal areas. The proposed SEM contributes to a better understanding of the relationships between air pollutants and their determinants, and this knowledge can inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution and improving public health.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139482958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying and correcting geolocation error in spaceborne LiDAR forest canopy observations using high spatial accuracy data: A Bayesian model approach","authors":"Elliot S. Shannon,&nbsp;Andrew O. Finley,&nbsp;Daniel J. Hayes,&nbsp;Sylvia N. Noralez,&nbsp;Aaron R. Weiskittel,&nbsp;Bruce D. Cook,&nbsp;Chad Babcock","doi":"10.1002/env.2840","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2840","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geolocation error in spaceborne sampling light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of forest structure can compromise forest attribute estimates and degrade integration with georeferenced field measurements or other remotely sensed data. Data integration is especially problematic when geolocation error is not well quantified. We propose a general model that uses airborne laser scanning data to quantify and correct geolocation error in spaceborne sampling LiDAR. To illustrate the model, LiDAR data from NASA Goddard's LiDAR Hyperspectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) was used with a subset of LiDAR data from NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI). The model accommodates multiple canopy height metrics derived from a simulated GEDI footprint kernel using spatially coincident G-LiHT, and incorporates both additive and multiplicative mapping between the canopy height metrics generated from both datasets. A Bayesian implementation provides probabilistic uncertainty quantification in both parameter and geolocation error estimates. Results show a systematic geolocation error of 9.62 m in the southwest direction. In addition, estimated geolocation errors within GEDI footprints were highly variable, with results showing a <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>0.45 probability the true footprint center is within 20 m. Estimating and correcting geolocation error via the model outlined here can help inform subsequent efforts to integrate spaceborne LiDAR data, like GEDI, with other georeferenced data.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2840","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139409501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}