{"title":"On final and peak sizes of an epidemic with latency and effect of behaviour change.","authors":"Tianyu Cheng, Xingfu Zou","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02249-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02249-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we use the renewal equation approach to explore the impact of behaviour change and/or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the final size and peak size of an infectious disease without demography. To this end, we derive the renewal equations (REs) for the force of infection (both instantaneous and cumulative) that have reflected the NPIs and/or behaviour change by the notion of practically susceptible population. A novelty in these REs is that they contain time-varying kernels arising from the incorporation of effect of behaviour change. We then build the new REs into the Kermack-McKendrick model to obtain a general full model. Following Breda et al. (J Biol Dyn 6(sup2):103-117, 2012) and Diekmann et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 118(39):e2106332118, 2021), we analyze this new model to derive a general formula for the final size relation, by which we find that the final size relation depends not only on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] but also on other associated values that reflect the impact of behaviour change. Specifically, we demonstrate that behaviour change can reduce the infection peak and herd immunity threshold in some specific models.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"19"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144692252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stochastic dynamics of two-compartment cell proliferation models with regulatory mechanisms for hematopoiesis.","authors":"Ren-Yi Wang, Marek Kimmel, Guodong Pang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02250-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02250-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present an asymptotic analysis of a stochastic two-compartmental cell division system with regulatory mechanisms inspired by Getto et al. (Math Biosci 245: 258-268, 2013). The hematopoietic system is modeled as a two-compartment system, where the first compartment consists of dividing cells in the bone marrow, referred to as type 0 cells, and the second compartment consists of post-mitotic cells in the blood, referred to as type 1 cells. Division and self-renewal of type 0 cells are regulated by the population density of type 1 cells. By scaling up the initial population, we demonstrate that the scaled dynamics converges in distribution to the solution of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). This system of ODEs exhibits a unique non-trivial equilibrium that is globally stable. Furthermore, we establish that the scaled fluctuations of the density dynamics converge in law to a linear diffusion process with time-dependent coefficients. When the initial data is Gaussian, the limit process is a Gauss-Markov process. We analyze its asymptotic properties to elucidate the joint structure of both compartments over large times. This is achieved by proving exponential convergence in the 2-Wasserstein metric for the associated Gaussian measures on an [Formula: see text] Hilbert space. Finally, we apply our results to compare the effects of regulating division and self-renewal of type 0 cells, providing insights into their respective roles in maintaining hematopoietic system stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"18"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144660932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhi-Chao Xue, Jing Li, Cui-Hua Wang, Gui-Quan Sun, Li Li
{"title":"Multistability shifts in an aird vegetation system with nonlocal water absorption effect.","authors":"Zhi-Chao Xue, Jing Li, Cui-Hua Wang, Gui-Quan Sun, Li Li","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02248-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02248-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In arid regions, the distribution of vegetation often exhibits rich and diverse patterning phenomena. Typically, the pattern structure is characterized by a single periodic state known as the Turing pattern. Recent research on the interaction between vegetation and water has overlooked the fact that vegetation can absorb water from the entire space, not just its immediate location. To address this, we develop a vegetation-water model incorporating a nonlocal water absorption effect, present the conditions for Turing bifurcation occurrence, and derive the amplitude equation along with the generation conditions for subcritical bifurcation through weakly nonlinear analysis. Our findings demonstrate that introducing a nonlocal water absorption strength can lead to the emergence of a supercritical Turing bifurcation when the water diffusion coefficient is small, as opposed to being limited to a subcritical type. Moreover, this nonlocal effect plays a critical role in the transition of the Turing bifurcation from supercritical to subcritical, resulting in the coexistence of multiple stability states in the snaking region. These multistability states correspond to pattern structures observed in Senegal, which differ from fairy circles (the typical Turing pattern) in Australia. Additionally, our results show that the vegetation system transitions from monostability at low precipitation to bistability at high precipitation, passing through intermediate states of bistability and tristability. The tristability state consists of bare soil (BS), uniform vegetation (UV), and periodic pattern (PP), while the bistable state comprises two stability states. In summary, these findings offer new perspectives on studying the impacts of the nonlocal water absorption effect on multistability shifts and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of vegetation ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"17"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144602151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Projected spread models.","authors":"Jung-Chao Ban, Jyy-I Hong, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Yu-Liang Wu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02240-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02240-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present a disease transmission model that considers both explicit and non-explicit factors. This approach is crucial for accurate prediction and control of infectious disease spread. In this paper, we extend the spread model from our previous works (Ban et al. in Chaos Solitons Fractals 150:111106, 2021; Ban et al. in Chaos 33(6):063144, 2023; Ban et al. in J Math Biol 86(3):40, 2023; Ban et al. in Chaos 32(10):103113, 2023) to a projected spread model that considers both hidden and explicit types. Additionally, we provide the spread rate for the projected spread model corresponding to the topological and random models. Furthermore, examples and numerical results are provided to illustrate the theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12202681/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144499044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A model for contractile stress fibers embedded in bulk actomyosin networks.","authors":"Mariya Savinov, Charles S Peskin, Alex Mogilner","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02245-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02245-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Contractile cytoskeletal structures such as fine actomyosin meshworks and stress fibers are essential force-generators for mechanical phenomena in live cells, including motility, morphogenesis, and mechanosensing. While there have been many studies on the rheology and assembly of individual stress fibers, few mathematical models have explicitly modeled the bulk actomyosin network in which stress fibers are embedded, particularly not in the case of high actin turnover. Generally the extent of the interplay between embedded stress fibers and contractile bulk networks is still not well understood. To address this gap, we design a model of stress fibers embedded in bulk actomyosin networks which utilizes the immersed boundary method, allowing one to consider various stress fiber rheologies in the context of an approximately viscous, compressible, contractile bulk network. We characterize the dynamics of bulk actomyosin networks with and without embedded stress fibers, and simulate a laser ablation experiment to demonstrate the effective long-range interactions between stress fibers as well as how perturbations of stress fibers can result in symmetry breaking of the bulk actomyosin network. This paper is a part of the Special Collection \"Problems, Progress and Perspectives in Mathematical and Computational Biology\".</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"14"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144499042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contribution to the study of a pre-exposure prophylaxis HIV model.","authors":"Thomas Martin, Jianhong Wu, Laurent Pujo Menjouet","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02244-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02244-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is a new treatment against HIV spread consisting of taking antiretrovirals to prevent HIV infection. Silva (Discret Contin Dyn Syst Ser S 11:119-141, 2017) introduced a mathematical model of HIV spread including PrEP. Here we propose to complete their work by including the PrEP parameter in the basic reproduction number of the system. To do so, we study stability changes through the influence of this new parameter. We also prove the global stability of the steady states of the system in this new case using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we extend the stability to cases where death induced by AIDS is non-zero using exponential attractors to make the model more applicable to real-life scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"16"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144499043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Edward A Turner, Francisco Crespo, Josep Sardanyés, Nolbert Morales
{"title":"Quasispecies dynamics with time lags and periodic fluctuations in replication.","authors":"Edward A Turner, Francisco Crespo, Josep Sardanyés, Nolbert Morales","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02239-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02239-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Quasispecies theory provides the conceptual and theoretical bases for describing the dynamics of biological information of replicators subject to large mutation rates. This theory, initially conceived within the framework of prebiotic evolution, is also being used to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of RNA viruses and heterogeneous cancer cells populations. In this sense, efforts to extend the initial quasispecies theory to more realistic scenarios have been made in recent decades. Despite this, how time lags in RNA synthesis and periodic fluctuations impact quasispecies dynamics remains poorly studied. In this article, we combine the theory of delayed ordinary differential equations and topological Leray-Schauder degree to investigate the classical quasispecies model in the single-peak fitness landscape considering time lags and periodic fluctuations in replication. First, we prove that the dynamics with time lags under the constant population constraint remains in the simplex in both forward and backward times. With backward mutation and periodic fluctuations, we prove the existence of periodic orbits regardless of time lags. Nevertheless, without backward mutation, neither periodic fluctuations nor the introduction of time lags leads to periodic orbits. However, in the case of periodic fluctuations, solutions converge exponentially to a periodic oscillation around the equilibria associated with a constant replication rate. We check the validity of the error catastrophe hypothesis assuming no backward mutation; we determine that the error threshold remains sound for the case of time of periodic fitness and time lags with constant fitness. Finally, our results show that the error threshold is not found with backward mutations.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144486784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interaction between harvesting intervention and birth perturbation in an age-structured model.","authors":"Haiyan Xu, Zhigui Lin, Carlos Alberto Santos","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02242-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02242-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>An age-structured fish model with birth and harvesting pulses is established, where birth pulses are responsible for increasing the amount of fish due to the constant multiple placement of juveniles, and harvesting pulses describe the decrease of fish due to fishing activities. The principal eigenvalue as a threshold value depending on the harvesting and birth intensity is firstly investigated by three different ways. The asymptotic behavior of the population is fully investigated and sufficient conditions for the species to be extinct or persist are given. Numerical simulations suggest that interaction between negative harvesting intervention and positive birth perturbation decides extinction and persistence of the species. It is possible to transform between expansion and extinction of species for sustainable development of fishery resources by choosing appropriate pulse intensities and perturbation timing.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"12"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144477658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samuel Pastva, Kyu Hyong Park, Ondřej Huvar, Jordan C Rozum, Réka Albert
{"title":"An open problem: Why are motif-avoidant attractors so rare in asynchronous Boolean networks?","authors":"Samuel Pastva, Kyu Hyong Park, Ondřej Huvar, Jordan C Rozum, Réka Albert","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02235-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02235-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Asynchronous Boolean networks are a type of discrete dynamical system in which each variable can take one of two states, and a single variable state is updated in each time step according to pre-selected rules. Boolean networks are popular in systems biology due to their ability to model long-term biological phenotypes within a qualitative, predictive framework. Boolean networks model phenotypes as attractors, which are closely linked to minimal trap spaces (inescapable hypercubes in the system's state space). In biological applications, attractors and minimal trap spaces are typically in one-to-one correspondence. However, this correspondence is not guaranteed: motif-avoidant attractors (MAAs) that lie outside minimal trap spaces are possible. MAAs are rare and poorly understood, despite recent efforts. In this contribution to the BMB & JMB Special Collection \"Problems, Progress and Perspectives in Mathematical and Computational Biology\", we summarize the current state of knowledge regarding MAAs and present several novel observations regarding their response to node deletion reductions and linear extensions of edges. We conduct large-scale computational studies on an ensemble of 14 000 models derived from published Boolean models of biological systems, and more than 100 million Random Boolean Networks. Our findings quantify the rarity of MAAs; in particular, we only observed MAAs in biological models after applying standard simplification methods, highlighting the role of network reduction in introducing MAAs into the dynamics. We also show that MAAs are fragile to linear extensions: in sparse networks, even a single linear node can disrupt virtually all MAAs. Motivated by this observation, we improve the upper bound on the number of delays needed to disrupt a motif-avoidant attractor.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12162798/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144276492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A nonlocal reaction-diffusion system modeling the Schistosomiasis transmission with multiple hosts and periodic delays.","authors":"Chang-Yuan Cheng, Feng-Bin Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02238-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02238-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we investigate the effects of seasonality, spatial heterogeneity and multiple hosts on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. The seasonal environment imposes a temporary maturation period, parasites' extrinsic incubation phase, and periodic developments within the hosts. This results in multiple periodic time delays in stage transforms. Incorporating both the movements of parasites and their hosts, the transmission becomes periodic, time-delayed, and spatially non-local. We first show the well-posedness of the model and introduce its basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . Accordingly, we confirm the threshold-type global dynamics where the disease is uniformly persistent with at least one positive periodic solution when <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>></mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> , while the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive when <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo><</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> . In addition to the well-known results indicating that varied delays and spatial heterogeneity can affect the threshold value, our numerical simulations reveal some interesting findings: (1) The value of <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> decreases in environments with more complex fragmentation, while increases with higher spatial variation of transmission rates. (2) The optimal control approach is to initiate control of transmission in intermediate and definitive hosts at different timings. (3) Employing a space-dependent resource distribution is more effective than applying a spatially uniform resource distribution in reducing the spread of the disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 1","pages":"10"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144259300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}