Iulia Martina Bulai, Francesco Ferraresso, Francesca Gladiali
{"title":"Optimal control of monomers and oligomers degradation in an Alzheimer's disease model.","authors":"Iulia Martina Bulai, Francesco Ferraresso, Francesca Gladiali","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02256-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02256-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aggregation and accumulation of oligomers of misfolded Aβ-amyloids in the human brain is one of the possible causes for the onset of the Alzheimer's disease in the early stage. We introduce and study a new ODE model for the evolution of Alzheimer's disease based on the interaction between monomers, proto-oligomers, and oligomers of Aβ amyloid protein in a small portion of the human brain, based upon biochemical processes such as polymerization, depolymerization, fragmentation and concatenation. We further introduce the possibility of controlling the evolution of the system via a treatment that targets the monomers and/or the oligomers. We observe that a combined optimal treatment on both monomers and oligomers induces a substantial decrease of the oligomer concentration at the final stage. A single treatment on oligomers performs better than a single treatment on monomers. These results shed a light on the effectiveness of immunotherapy using anti-Aβ antibodies, targeting monomers or oligomers. Several numerical simulations show how the oligomer concentration evolves without treatment, with single monomer/oligomer treatment, or with a combined treatment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 3","pages":"27"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12334554/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144800830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michel Benaim, Claude Lobry, Tewfik Sari, Edouard Strickler
{"title":"Dispersal-induced growth or decay in a time-periodic environment. The case of reducible migration matrices.","authors":"Michel Benaim, Claude Lobry, Tewfik Sari, Edouard Strickler","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02258-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02258-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper is a follow-up to a previous work where we considered populations with time-varying growth rates living in patches and irreducible migration matrix between the patches. Each population, when isolated, would become extinct. Dispersal-induced growth (DIG) occurs when the populations are able to persist and grow exponentially when dispersal among the populations is present. In this paper, we consider the situation where the migration matrix is not necessarily irreducible. We provide a mathematical analysis of the DIG phenomenon, in the context of a deterministic model with periodic variation of growth rates and migration. Our results apply in the case, important for applications, where there is migration in one direction in one season and in the other direction in another season. We also consider dispersal-induced decay (DID), where each population, when isolated, grows exponentially, while populations die out when dispersal between populations is present.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 3","pages":"26"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144800829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How climate change can affect the dynamics of stage-structured seasonal breeders.","authors":"Yueyang Du, Frithjof Lutscher","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02255-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02255-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In order to be useful in assessing the effects of climate change on biological populations, mathematical models have to adequately represent the life cycle of the species in question, the dynamics of and interactions with its resource(s), and the effect of changing environmental conditions on their vital rates. Due to this complexity, such models are often analytically intractable. We present here a consumer-resource model that captures seasonality (summer and winter), with synchronously reproducing consumers (birth pulse), structured into non-reproductive juveniles and reproductive adults, and that remains analytically tractable. Our model is motivated by hibernating mammals, such as marmots, ground squirrels, or bats, some of which live in high altitude regions where the effects of climate change are stronger than elsewhere. One stage-specific impact of climate change in those species is that juveniles may benefit from warmer winters while adults may suffer. We explore various aspects of how this differential response to climate change shapes population dynamics from stable populations to cycles and chaos. We show that the qualitative relationship between winter temperature and winter mortality has a significant effect on the model dynamics, hence informing empiricists of required data to assess the effect of climate change on these species. Our results question the long-standing expectation that species with slower life histories are necessarily more strongly affected by climate change than species with faster life histories.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 3","pages":"24"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144785836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jingjie Yang, Heidi Fang, Jagdeep Dhesi, Iris H R Yoon, Joshua A Bull, Helen M Byrne, Heather A Harrington, Gillian Grindstaff
{"title":"Topological classification of tumour-immune interactions and dynamics.","authors":"Jingjie Yang, Heidi Fang, Jagdeep Dhesi, Iris H R Yoon, Joshua A Bull, Helen M Byrne, Heather A Harrington, Gillian Grindstaff","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02253-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02253-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The complex and dynamic crosstalk between tumour and immune cells results in tumours that can exhibit distinct qualitative behaviours-elimination, equilibrium, and escape-and intricate spatial patterns, yet share similar cell configurations in the early stages. We offer a topological approach to analyse time series of spatial data of cell locations (including tumour cells and macrophages) in order to predict malignant behaviour. We propose four topological vectorisations specialised to such cell data: persistence images of Vietoris-Rips and radial filtrations at static time points, and persistence images for zigzag filtrations and persistence vineyards varying in time. To demonstrate the approach, synthetic data are generated from an agent-based model with varying parameters. We compare the performance of topological summaries in predicting-with logistic regression at various time steps-whether tumour niches surrounding blood vessels are present at the end of the simulation, as a proxy for metastasis (i.e., tumour escape). We find that both static and time-dependent methods accurately identify perivascular niche formation, significantly earlier than simpler markers such as the number of tumour cells and the macrophage phenotype ratio. We find additionally that dimension 0 persistence applied to macrophage data, representing multi-scale clusters of the spatial arrangement of macrophages, performs best at this classification task at early time steps, prior to full tumour development, and performs even better when time-dependent data are included; in contrast, topological measures capturing the shape of the tumour, such as tortuosity and punctures in the cell arrangement, perform best at intermediate and later stages. We analyse the logistic regression coefficients for each method to identify detailed shape differences between the classes.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 3","pages":"25"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12325540/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144785837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of anisotropic diffusion in heterogeneous time-periodic environments.","authors":"Hongqiang Yu, Linlin Bu, Jianhua Wu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02237-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02237-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We study a reaction-diffusion system involving two species competing in temporally periodic and spatially heterogeneous environments. In this system, the species move horizontally and vertically with different probabilities, which can be regarded as dispersal strategies. The selection mechanisms in this case are more intricate than those observed in random diffusion scenarios. We investigate the stability of the semi-trivial periodic solutions in terms of the sign of the principal eigenvalue associated with a linear periodic eigenvalue problem. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions for the coexistence of two species. Additionally, numerical simulations are performed to facilitate further research and exploration.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"23"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144762145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chiara Villa, Philip K Maini, Alexander P Browning, Adrianne L Jenner, Sara Hamis, Tyler Cassidy
{"title":"Reducing phenotype-structured partial differential equations models of cancer evolution to systems of ordinary differential equations: a generalised moment dynamics approach.","authors":"Chiara Villa, Philip K Maini, Alexander P Browning, Adrianne L Jenner, Sara Hamis, Tyler Cassidy","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02246-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02246-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Intratumour phenotypic heterogeneity is understood to play a critical role in disease progression and treatment failure. Accordingly, there has been increasing interest in the development of mathematical models capable of capturing its role in cancer cell adaptation. This can be systematically achieved by means of models comprising phenotype-structured nonlocal partial differential equations, tracking the evolution of the phenotypic density distribution of the cell population, which may be compared to gene and protein expression distributions obtained experimentally. Nevertheless, given the high analytical and computational cost of solving these models, much is to be gained from reducing them to systems of ordinary differential equations for the moments of the distribution. We propose a generalised method of model-reduction, relying on the use of a moment generating function, Taylor series expansion and truncation closure, to reduce a nonlocal reaction-advection-diffusion equation, with general phenotypic drift and proliferation rate functions, to a system of moment equations up to arbitrary order. Our method extends previous results in the literature, which we address via three examples, by removing any a priori assumption on the shape of the distribution, and provides a flexible framework for mathematical modellers to account for the role of phenotypic heterogeneity in cancer adaptive dynamics, in a simpler mathematical framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"22"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12304065/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144735014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Re-examining the drivers of variation in parasite loads across hosts in the Tallis-Leyton model.","authors":"R McVinish","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02241-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02241-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Tallis-Leyton model is a simple model of parasite acquisition where parasites accumulate in the host without affecting the host's mortality, or eliciting any immune reaction from the host. Furthermore, the parasites do not reproduce in the host. We examine how the variability in parasite loads among hosts is affected by the rate of infectious contacts, the distribution of parasite entering the host during infectious contacts, the host's age, and the distribution of parasite lifetimes. Motivated by empirical studies in parasitology, variability is examined in the sense of the Lorenz order and related metrics. Perhaps counterintuitively, increased variability in the distribution of parasite lifetimes is seen to decrease variability in the parasite loads among hosts.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"21"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12296923/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144719038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Positive and negative role of random perturbations in the dynamics of a tumor-immune system with treatment.","authors":"Irina Bashkirtseva, Lev Ryashko","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02251-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02251-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The paper aims to study the constructive role of noise in tumor dynamics. Mathematical investigation of this problem is carried out on the basis of a model of dynamic interaction between effector and tumor cells under conditions of chemotherapy. For the deterministic variant of the model, zones of mono-, bi-, and tristability are defined depending on the bifurcation parameter of treatment intensity. We find equilibrium and oscillatory attractors associated with active, dormant and zero tumor states. The paper studies how, depending on the chemotherapy intensity, random disturbances transform the active tumor mode into the dormant, or even zero state providing the main target of treatment. We also find conditions generating stochastic transitions of the tumor-immune system from the dormant tumor to the regime of active tumor. In the mathematical study of the positive and negative role of random noise, along with direct numerical simulation and statistical processing, we use the analytical confidence domain method.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"20"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144719037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On final and peak sizes of an epidemic with latency and effect of behaviour change.","authors":"Tianyu Cheng, Xingfu Zou","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02249-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02249-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we use the renewal equation approach to explore the impact of behaviour change and/or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the final size and peak size of an infectious disease without demography. To this end, we derive the renewal equations (REs) for the force of infection (both instantaneous and cumulative) that have reflected the NPIs and/or behaviour change by the notion of practically susceptible population. A novelty in these REs is that they contain time-varying kernels arising from the incorporation of effect of behaviour change. We then build the new REs into the Kermack-McKendrick model to obtain a general full model. Following Breda et al. (J Biol Dyn 6(sup2):103-117, 2012) and Diekmann et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 118(39):e2106332118, 2021), we analyze this new model to derive a general formula for the final size relation, by which we find that the final size relation depends not only on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] but also on other associated values that reflect the impact of behaviour change. Specifically, we demonstrate that behaviour change can reduce the infection peak and herd immunity threshold in some specific models.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"19"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144692252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stochastic dynamics of two-compartment cell proliferation models with regulatory mechanisms for hematopoiesis.","authors":"Ren-Yi Wang, Marek Kimmel, Guodong Pang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-025-02250-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-025-02250-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present an asymptotic analysis of a stochastic two-compartmental cell division system with regulatory mechanisms inspired by Getto et al. (Math Biosci 245: 258-268, 2013). The hematopoietic system is modeled as a two-compartment system, where the first compartment consists of dividing cells in the bone marrow, referred to as type 0 cells, and the second compartment consists of post-mitotic cells in the blood, referred to as type 1 cells. Division and self-renewal of type 0 cells are regulated by the population density of type 1 cells. By scaling up the initial population, we demonstrate that the scaled dynamics converges in distribution to the solution of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). This system of ODEs exhibits a unique non-trivial equilibrium that is globally stable. Furthermore, we establish that the scaled fluctuations of the density dynamics converge in law to a linear diffusion process with time-dependent coefficients. When the initial data is Gaussian, the limit process is a Gauss-Markov process. We analyze its asymptotic properties to elucidate the joint structure of both compartments over large times. This is achieved by proving exponential convergence in the 2-Wasserstein metric for the associated Gaussian measures on an [Formula: see text] Hilbert space. Finally, we apply our results to compare the effects of regulating division and self-renewal of type 0 cells, providing insights into their respective roles in maintaining hematopoietic system stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"91 2","pages":"18"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144660932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}