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Industrial policy in a new era: Government venture capital in the US–China trade war 新时代的产业政策：中美贸易战中的政府风险投资
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103599
Y. Joy Chen , Robin Kaiji Gong , Jinlin Li
{"title":"Industrial policy in a new era: Government venture capital in the US–China trade war","authors":"Y. Joy Chen ,&nbsp;Robin Kaiji Gong ,&nbsp;Jinlin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Government venture capital (VC) is a core component of China’s industrial policy framework. This study documents a novel feature of government VC under geopolitical tensions: During the 2018–2019 US–China trade war, government VC funds sustained their investments in manufacturing industries targeted by the U.S. tariffs, in contrast to an overall withdrawal of private capital. This persistence had important implications for startup financing and innovation. Startups heavily exposed to tariff shocks (1) were more likely to secure follow-on financing from government VC, especially if they had stronger innovation track records and (2) produced more patents if their localities had higher <em>ex ante</em> government VC activity. Collectively, these findings suggest that government VC, as an emerging instrument of industrial policy, helped underpin the resilience of China’s high-tech industries in the face of geopolitical risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103599"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144858179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From open to closed societies: Inequality, migration, and women's rights 从开放社会到封闭社会：不平等、移民和妇女权利
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103607
Marco Casari , Maurizio Lisciandra , Ali Seyhun Saral
{"title":"From open to closed societies: Inequality, migration, and women's rights","authors":"Marco Casari ,&nbsp;Maurizio Lisciandra ,&nbsp;Ali Seyhun Saral","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study six centuries of institutional change in the governance of the commons across over three hundred Italian communities. Wealthier communities, facing migration pressure due to unequal resource endowments, restricted access to common property resources by excluding women from membership, thereby limiting migration through marriage. Using archival data and an agent-based model, we show that this endogenous closure spread via a domino effect and persisted until a centralized Napoleonic reform reinstated egalitarian access. The findings highlight how migration, inequality, and gendered institutions interact in polycentric systems, offering broader insights for the political economy of property rights on land and institutional reform in developing contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103607"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The chilling effects of unsuccessful antidumping investigations on firm export dynamics 不成功的反倾销调查对企业出口动态的寒蝉效应
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103610
Ming Chen , Wen Chen , Ling Feng , Zhiyuan Li , Deborah L. Swenson
{"title":"The chilling effects of unsuccessful antidumping investigations on firm export dynamics","authors":"Ming Chen ,&nbsp;Wen Chen ,&nbsp;Ling Feng ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Li ,&nbsp;Deborah L. Swenson","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the aftermath of “unsuccessful” antidumping investigations that failed to achieve positive antidumping findings or antidumping duties against foreign exporters. While failed investigations might be viewed as benign, “unsuccessful” investigations may nonetheless elevate trade policy uncertainty since investigated products face dramatically increased probabilities of future antidumping investigations. Our analysis of Chinese firm export dynamics following “unsuccessful” U.S. antidumping investigations between 2000 and 2015 uncovers strong reductions in firm export dynamics - counts of new export entry and incumbent exit in “unsuccessfully” investigated products are both diminished by U.S. antidumping investigations. The combined effects of these responses lead to drops in the number of active exporters, and declines in export values for the investigated products. Since recent work on firm export dynamics shows how extensive margin changes facilitate improvements in export firm productivity and the product quality enjoyed by consumers, a benign view of “unsuccessful” antidumping investigations is called into question.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103610"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond poverty reduction: Evidence from a multifaceted program on poverty, nutrition and child development 减贫之外：来自贫困、营养和儿童发展多方面项目的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103596
Adrien Bouguen , Andrew Dillon
{"title":"Beyond poverty reduction: Evidence from a multifaceted program on poverty, nutrition and child development","authors":"Adrien Bouguen ,&nbsp;Andrew Dillon","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impacts of a multifaceted program implemented in Burkina Faso that targets ultra-poor households with young children or pregnant women. The design includes a cash transfer program (T1), T1 plus animal transfer (T2) and T2 plus a nutrition bundle which includes fortified flour, a gardening kit and nutrition education (T3). We find that the program reduces extreme poverty in all treatment branches, but only T3 positively impacts child nutrition. T3 also impacts motor and cognitive development of new born children. Our results suggest that while standard multi-faced programs are effective at reducing poverty, nutritionally focused programs are likely necessary to better address children’s long-run earning potential via improved cognitive skills.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103596"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Solving coordination failures: Collective land transfer rights and rural entrepreneurship 解决协调失灵：集体土地出让权与农村创业
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103609
Xin Lin , Eddie Chi-man Hui , Zhenglong Cong , Jianfu Shen
{"title":"Solving coordination failures: Collective land transfer rights and rural entrepreneurship","authors":"Xin Lin ,&nbsp;Eddie Chi-man Hui ,&nbsp;Zhenglong Cong ,&nbsp;Jianfu Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores whether strengthening communal land rights can address coordination failures caused by fragmented land tenure. Based on China's ambitious land reform that permits rural collectives to directly sell or rent their construction land to enterprises, we discover that collective land transfer rights boost rural entrepreneurship by 25%. This positive firm growth is entirely concentrated in regions where collective coordination is simpler to achieve (i.e., less rugged areas and regions with denser clan networks). We identify two specific pathways behind the entrepreneurial growth: lower land use costs for firms and increased land wealth for local residents. The reform also facilitates expansion into non-farm wage employment, mainly due to more active participation in the labor market rather than via a decline in the agricultural sector. Our findings emphasize the importance of communal rights and collective negotiation in reducing coordination costs and offer new insights into promoting rural development in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103609"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can subsidized employment tackle long-term unemployment? Experimental evidence from North Macedonia 就业补贴能解决长期失业问题吗？来自北马其顿的实验证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103598
Alex Armand , Pedro Carneiro , Federico Tagliati , Yiming Xia
{"title":"Can subsidized employment tackle long-term unemployment? Experimental evidence from North Macedonia","authors":"Alex Armand ,&nbsp;Pedro Carneiro ,&nbsp;Federico Tagliati ,&nbsp;Yiming Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study experimentally assesses the effects of temporary wage subsidies on employment in North Macedonia. The target group consists of vulnerable unemployed individuals participating in an employment program that provides employers with a subsidy covering half of the wage payments during the first year of employment, as well as training expenses. Applicants are initially matched to job openings and then randomly selected for job interviews with employers, who decide whether to hire them under the program’s conditions. Using administrative records, we find that being selected for an interview results in a 14-percentage-point increase in the probability of being employed in the formal economy 3.5 years after the start of the program, and an 85% increase in employment duration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103598"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144840957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling the Cosmic Race: Skin tone and intergenerational economic disparities in Latin America and the Caribbean 揭示宇宙种族：拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的肤色和代际经济差距
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103594
L. Guillermo Woo-Mora
{"title":"Unveiling the Cosmic Race: Skin tone and intergenerational economic disparities in Latin America and the Caribbean","authors":"L. Guillermo Woo-Mora","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103594","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how skin tone shapes intergenerational economic disparities across 25 Latin American and Caribbean countries. First, it analyzes the distribution of ethnoracial identities and skin tone, confirming Mestizo predominance and revealing how broad categories obscure substantial phenotypic diversity. Second, it documents non-linear gaps in income and education, with darker skin tones consistently linked to economic disadvantages. A variance decomposition shows that skin tone explains significant within-group variation, offering explanatory power beyond self-reported ethnoracial categories. Finally, using mothers’ education as a benchmark, the study provides novel cross-country evidence on skin tone gaps in absolute educational intergenerational mobility, revealing barriers to upward mobility for darker-skinned individuals. Robustness checks with machine-assessed skin tone data from Mexico, incorporating additional parental and contextual controls, confirm these disparities. These findings underscore the need to account for phenotypic variation when studying economic inequality in Latin America.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103594"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using computerized information to enforce VAT: Evidence from Pakistan 利用计算机信息强制执行增值税：来自巴基斯坦的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103595
Jawad Shah
{"title":"Using computerized information to enforce VAT: Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Jawad Shah","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I test the efficacy of VAT’s in-built third-party information trail, together with electronic filing, to deter tax evasion in a low state capacity environment. Using a reform which utilizes information beyond the VAT trail and authorizes a computerized risk analysis system to accept or reject tax credits in real time, my difference-in-differences estimates show that claims declined by 50%. Based on firm heterogeneity, the response ranges from 30%–90%. Approximately 10% of treated firms were fake, created for missing trader fraud. The lower bound estimate of increase in net VAT collection at the country level is 10%. I find that traditional VAT enforcement mechanisms of cross-matching, audit and recovery fail to deter evasion in developing countries but a risk-based real-time enforcement system is effective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103595"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda 增强妇女权能：评价乌干达的两项干预措施
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103575
Kate Ambler , Kelly M. Jones , Michael O’Sullivan
{"title":"Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda","authors":"Kate Ambler ,&nbsp;Kelly M. Jones ,&nbsp;Michael O’Sullivan","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103575"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating multidimensional development resilience 评估多维发展弹性
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103583
Seungmin Lee , Kibrom A. Abay , Christopher B. Barrett , John Hoddinott
{"title":"Estimating multidimensional development resilience","authors":"Seungmin Lee ,&nbsp;Kibrom A. Abay ,&nbsp;Christopher B. Barrett ,&nbsp;John Hoddinott","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103583"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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