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Estimating seed demand in the presence of market frictions: Evidence from an auction experiment in Nigeria 估算存在市场摩擦时的种子需求：尼日利亚拍卖实验的证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103242
Tesfamicheal Wossen , David J. Spielman , Arega D. Alene , Tahirou Abdoulaye
{"title":"Estimating seed demand in the presence of market frictions: Evidence from an auction experiment in Nigeria","authors":"Tesfamicheal Wossen ,&nbsp;David J. Spielman ,&nbsp;Arega D. Alene ,&nbsp;Tahirou Abdoulaye","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper measures the effect of seed quality misperceptions on bidding behavior and demand for high-quality seed using an information-provision experiment within an incentive-compatible Vickery Second Price (SPA) auction mechanism that mimics seed purchasing decisions in the presence of seed market frictions. We find that most individuals are prone to quality misperception and revise their bids upwards (downwards) in response to positive (negative) quality signals. In addition, by exploiting random variation in the timing of cash grants, we show that imperfect information influences farmer seed valuation, even in the presence of potentially binding liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate that the provision of quality information does not fully resolve quality misperceptions. We then show that unresolved or persistent misperception is severe enough to distort bidding behavior, and ignoring it could lead to biased willingness-to-pay estimates. Our findings have important implications both for improving inference related to the identification and estimation of willingness to pay for quality seed in the presence of market frictions, and for the design of seed sector polices in developing countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387823001980/pdfft?md5=11b9f7f0ad8ce5e2e81727aa14a749b0&pid=1-s2.0-S0304387823001980-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139107562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Attenuating measurement errors in agricultural productivity analysis by combining objective and self-reported survey data 结合客观和自我报告的调查数据，减少农业生产力分析中的测量误差∗。
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103249
Ismael Yacoubou Djima , Talip Kilic
{"title":"Attenuating measurement errors in agricultural productivity analysis by combining objective and self-reported survey data","authors":"Ismael Yacoubou Djima ,&nbsp;Talip Kilic","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper exploits unique survey data from Mali to validate an alternative approach to estimate the relationship between crop yields and inputs. The estimation relies on predicted objective crop yields that stem from a machine learning model trained on a random subsample of surveyed plots, for which crop cutting and self-reported sorghum yield estimates are both available. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible to predict sorghum yields with attenuated non-classical measurement error, resulting in a less-biased assessment of the relationship between yields and agricultural inputs. The external validity of the findings based on the data from a sub-national survey experiment is verified using the data from a nationally representative agricultural survey. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys where objective data collection could be limited to a subsample to save costs, with the intention to apply the suggested machine learning approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139068700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persistent effects of colonial land tenure institutions: Village-level evidence from India 殖民时期土地保有制度的持续影响：印度村庄一级的证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103247
Vigyan D. Ratnoo
{"title":"Persistent effects of colonial land tenure institutions: Village-level evidence from India","authors":"Vigyan D. Ratnoo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper estimates the causal impact of land revenue institutions on long run rural development using a Spatial Regression Discontinuity framework on a new village level data set from colonial India. An early 19th century historical quirk meant that villages in close geographical proximity were assigned to different property rights systems — some falling under landlords and others under the government. Villages that were assigned to landlords in the colonial era have a higher poverty rate and lower consumption per capita in 2012. Village census data from 1961 to 2011 shows that historically rooted characteristics in landlord villages prevented them from accessing Green Revolution technologies. Analysis demonstrates that non-landlord, cultivator villages secured preferential access to public investment in the early decades. Despite some convergence in public goods availability, lower private wealth and investment in landlord villages causes continuing spatial inequalities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387823002031/pdfft?md5=31081fc6d77ce6acba4142f104cf9b39&pid=1-s2.0-S0304387823002031-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139031453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico 热应力与财务困境：墨西哥极端气温与企业贷款违约
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103246
Sandra Aguilar-Gomez , Emilio Gutierrez , David Heres , David Jaume , Martin Tobal
{"title":"Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico","authors":"Sandra Aguilar-Gomez ,&nbsp;Emilio Gutierrez ,&nbsp;David Heres ,&nbsp;David Jaume ,&nbsp;Martin Tobal","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events are likely to increase with climate change. Using a detailed dataset containing information on the universe of loans extended by commercial banks to private firms in Mexico, we examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and credit performance. We find that unusually hot days increase delinquency rates, primarily affecting the agricultural sector, but also non-agricultural </span>industries<span><span> that rely heavily on local demand. Our results are consistent with general equilibrium effects originated in agriculture that expand to other sectors in agricultural regions. Additionally, following a temperature shock, affected firms face increased challenges in accessing credit, pay higher </span>interest rates, and provide more collateral, indicating a tightening of credit during financial distress.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139055174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Property rights, factor allocation and household welfare: Experimental evidence from a land titling program in India 产权、要素分配和家庭福利：印度土地所有权计划的实验证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103238
Arjunan Subramanian , Parmod Kumar
{"title":"Property rights, factor allocation and household welfare: Experimental evidence from a land titling program in India","authors":"Arjunan Subramanian ,&nbsp;Parmod Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Increasing evidence shows the significance of <em>de jure</em> land ownership in determining agricultural productivity, yet the causal evidence of the effectiveness of land rights is scarce. We leverage experimental variation induced by nudging Indian farmers to obtain formal land titles. We find that titling increases agricultural investments, crop productivity, and paddy profits. We identify the tenancy security as the potential channel for impact from titling on the labour market and collateral effect for higher investment. Farmers respond to titling by releasing locked-in family labour, and those who obtain land titles make welfare gains and recover the full cost of titling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387823001943/pdfft?md5=d89c5543eb42127d3961ce5a9798110a&pid=1-s2.0-S0304387823001943-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138826948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China 气候变化、耕地调整与粮食安全：来自中国的证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103245
Xiaomeng Cui, Zheng Zhong
{"title":"Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China","authors":"Xiaomeng Cui,&nbsp;Zheng Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103245","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103245","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change is expected to reduce crop yields, but knowledge on how it affects agricultural land use is still limited. This paper empirically investigates the induced cropland adjustments in responding to long-run climate change in China. Based on county-level data over several decades, we employ a moving-average specification that exploits within-county variation in local climate normals. We show that cropland expands with rising temperature (precipitation) in cold (dry) areas, while the effect is reversed in hot (humid) areas. The results are consistent with the “long-difference” estimates and robust to a host of different specifications. Besides, local crop mix also evolves with the changing climate. However, accounting for the crop-mix adjustments, climate change by the mid-century is still predicted to significantly lower the national calorie provision through induced cropland adjustments, and an average yield growth of 17.6% (21.2%) would be required to offset the associated loss under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139017498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does electrification cause industrial development? Grid expansion and firm turnover in Indonesia 电气化会促进工业发展吗？印度尼西亚的电网扩张与企业营业额
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103234
Dana Kassem
{"title":"Does electrification cause industrial development? Grid expansion and firm turnover in Indonesia","authors":"Dana Kassem","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103234","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I ask whether electrification causes industrial development. I combine newly digitized data from the Indonesian state electricity company with rich manufacturing census data. To understand how electrification can cause industrial development, I shed light on an important economic mechanism — firm turnover. In particular, I study the effect of the extensive margin of electrification (grid expansion) on the extensive margin of industrial development (firm entry and exit). To deal with endogenous grid placement, I use an instrumental variable approach exploiting the location of colonial electric infrastructure and the need for an interconnected grid on the island of Java. I find that electrification causes industrial development by increasing the number of manufacturing firms, manufacturing workers, and manufacturing output. Electrification increases firm entry rates, but also exit rates, and entry accounts for most of the increase in output. This is consistent with electrification lowering entry costs, increasing competition, and forcing unproductive firms to exit more often.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387823001906/pdfft?md5=8560285a780d662a82c66dd4e81bcd84&pid=1-s2.0-S0304387823001906-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138769754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Training microentrepreneurs over Zoom: Experimental evidence from Mexico 对微型企业主的培训超过 "放大"：墨西哥的实验证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103244
Elwyn Davies , Peter Deffebach , Leonardo Iacovone , David McKenzie
{"title":"Training microentrepreneurs over Zoom: Experimental evidence from Mexico","authors":"Elwyn Davies ,&nbsp;Peter Deffebach ,&nbsp;Leonardo Iacovone ,&nbsp;David McKenzie","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Standard in-person business training programs are costly and difficult to scale to the millions of microenterprises in the developing world. We conduct an experiment to test the feasibility, cost-savings, and impact of delivering live training sessions over Zoom to microentrepreneurs in Mexico and Guatemala. We demonstrate that it is now feasible to both recruit and train self-employed women online, covering a wide geographic area, with few technology issues. However, the cost-savings over in-person classes are less than expected. Training improved business practices and performance over 2 months, but impacts had dissipated within 6 months.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139406225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Employment effects of minimum wages in a dual economy: Evidence from Thailand 二元经济中最低工资对就业的影响：泰国的证据
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103213
Saisawat Samutpradit
{"title":"Employment effects of minimum wages in a dual economy: Evidence from Thailand","authors":"Saisawat Samutpradit","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study employs both theoretical insights and empirical techniques to investigate the impact of a minimum wage increase on employment when minimum wage coverage is incomplete. Previous empirical studies on this topic have found conflicting results: while some find the share of the covered sector decreases, some find it increases. In the theoretical part, we extended the classic two-sector model and found both scenarios can occur depending on the parameters of the economy. Empirically, using as a natural experiment a novel minimum wage policy in Thailand whereby 40 percent of workers were not covered by the legislation, we found that one percent increase in the minimum wage reduced low-skilled employment in the covered sector by 0.1–1.1 percent and increased employment in the uncovered sector. The official unemployment rate also decreased because the rise in the minimum wage lowered the probability of covered employment to such a large extent that workers instead turned to the uncovered sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138715688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The demography of the great migration in China 中国人口大迁徙
IF 5 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103235
Rufei Guo , Junsen Zhang , Minghai Zhou
{"title":"The demography of the great migration in China","authors":"Rufei Guo ,&nbsp;Junsen Zhang ,&nbsp;Minghai Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Fertility differentials across countries drive global migration. Despite a vibrant research agenda on the demographic forces behind international migration, little empirical research probes into the demography of internal migration. We analyze the demography of China’s internal migration from 1996–2010. Specifically, we construct bilateral migration flows across Chinese prefectures and exploit large variations in cohort sizes induced by historical events. We find asymmetric impacts of “push” and “pull” demographic factors in determining internal migration. We also explore economic mechanisms behind demographic forces, such as the moderating effects of physical distance and social network, the substitution pattern by education, and a thick-market effect for marriage migration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139025041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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