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Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474
Ana P. Fernandes , Jing-Lin Duanmu
{"title":"Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform","authors":"Ana P. Fernandes ,&nbsp;Jing-Lin Duanmu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how banking integration affects export dynamics. To estimate the causal link, we exploit the phased liberalization of the Chinese banking industry to foreign competition across cities, based on WTO accession commitments, and use transaction-level data for all Chinese exporters. Following deregulation of foreign banks’ local-currency business, the increased local presence of foreign banks from the importing country raises export entry, the number of products and initial sales to the same country for firms in the city but has no effect on exit or growth. The effects are significantly more pronounced for exports to more distant countries, for firms in industries with fewer collateralizable assets and those exporting differentiated goods. We uncover the particular channels through which banking integration facilitates exports. The results are consistent with foreign banks’ informational advantage in screening export projects, relying less on collateral for lending decisions, and reducing uncertainty for firms exporting to the banks’ home country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103474"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Language training, refugees' healthcare integration, and the next generation's health
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470
Thang Dang
{"title":"Language training, refugees' healthcare integration, and the next generation's health","authors":"Thang Dang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting a policy reform mandating participation in a 300-h language training course in Norway, I investigate the multigenerational health effects of a comprehensive language training program. I document the significant positive impacts of the program, not only on the long-term integration of refugees into the healthcare system but also on the health of the next generation. The program improves the cumulative use of primary care services for 12 years after arrival by 44%. This increase is proposed to partially work through refugees’ increased labor market attachment and economic success. The program also results in spillover benefits for the health at birth of the children of refugees with 21–49% decreases in premature birth, low birth weight, and short birth length. These intergenerational effects probably operate via significant improvements in the home environment and maternal care during pregnancy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103470"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The long shadow of conflict on human capital: Intergenerational evidence from Peru
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103468
Alessandra Hidalgo-Aréstegui , Catherine Porter , Alan Sánchez , Saurabh Singhal
{"title":"The long shadow of conflict on human capital: Intergenerational evidence from Peru","authors":"Alessandra Hidalgo-Aréstegui ,&nbsp;Catherine Porter ,&nbsp;Alan Sánchez ,&nbsp;Saurabh Singhal","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates the intergenerational impacts of mothers’ exposure to the 1980–2000 Peruvian civil conflict on their children’s socio-emotional skills development. We combine longitudinal data, which measures skills across a child’s life, with historical geo-located conflict data. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation in conflict episodes, we find that mothers’ exposure to conflict has adverse intergenerational effects on their children’s socio-emotional outcomes of agency and pride. These effects are present at ages 8 and 12 and are robust to alternative specifications. At age 15, mothers’ conflict exposure increases children’s propensity to engage in crime-related risky behavior. The analysis of mechanisms highlights the role of reduced parental investments in children, driven by constrained household resources, a quality–quantity trade-off, and diminished maternal empowerment. Finally, an examination of the mother’s migration history reveals that migration decisions of her parents during the conflict partially mitigated the adverse effects on the socio-emotional development of their grandchildren.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103468"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor intensity, market structure, and the effect of economic activities on civil conflict
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465
Benjamin Crost , Joseph H. Felter , Yoko Yamasaki
{"title":"Labor intensity, market structure, and the effect of economic activities on civil conflict","authors":"Benjamin Crost ,&nbsp;Joseph H. Felter ,&nbsp;Yoko Yamasaki","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some types of economic activities exacerbate civil conflict while others mitigate it, but there is little systematic evidence on how characteristics of an activity determine its effect on conflict. We provide such evidence by analyzing how movements in the prices of 26 agricultural commodities, comprising 84 percent of total agricultural output, affect conflict in the Philippines. We find that increases in the value of labor-intensive commodities lead to larger reductions (or smaller increases) in conflict, consistent with an opportunity cost mechanism. Increases in the value of commodities produced by a small number of large farms lead to larger increases (or smaller reductions) in conflict, consistent with the hypothesis that concentrated markets are more easily taxed by armed groups. Our approach allows us to quantify the trade-off between different characteristics of an economic activity, providing guidelines on the types of activities a conflict-sensitive development strategy can safely promote.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103465"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can SMS interventions increase vaccination? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103469
Kevin Carney , Leah R. Rosenzweig , Wendy N. Wong , Florence Akech , James Otieno , Elisa M. Maffioli
{"title":"Can SMS interventions increase vaccination? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya","authors":"Kevin Carney ,&nbsp;Leah R. Rosenzweig ,&nbsp;Wendy N. Wong ,&nbsp;Florence Akech ,&nbsp;James Otieno ,&nbsp;Elisa M. Maffioli","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Researchers, practitioners, and policymakers often view Short Messaging Service (SMS) interventions as quick and inexpensive tools to influence individual decisions. SMS text messaging is particularly attractive in countries where much of the population lives in remote areas but mobile phone technology is becoming increasingly widespread. In partnership with the Ministry of Health in Kenya, we sent a series of SMS messages—incorporating behavioral nudges and financial incentives—to encourage individuals overdue for their second COVID-19 vaccine dose to complete their two-dose primary series. Applying principles from behavioral economics, we conducted four experiments between July 2022 and January 2023, sending randomized SMS messages to 51,903 individuals encouraging them to complete their vaccination. We found no evidence that these messages, designed to nudge behavior or offer financial incentives, significantly increased vaccination completion rates. A follow-up phone survey with a subsample of 105 respondents revealed that, while 91% of people remembered receiving the message, 84% of the sample reported being either <em>not worried</em> or only <em>a little worried</em> about the virus. Our data suggest that, despite recipients recalling the specific SMS, a single message with less salient content may not be effective in improving health outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103469"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143471654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From fields to factories: Special economic zones, foreign direct investment, and labour markets in Vietnam
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467
Tevin Tafese , Jann Lay , Van Tran
{"title":"From fields to factories: Special economic zones, foreign direct investment, and labour markets in Vietnam","authors":"Tevin Tafese ,&nbsp;Jann Lay ,&nbsp;Van Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vietnam's deep integration into GVCs has been driven by the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs). This paper examines the local labour market impacts of this SEZ programme. We trace the built-up area of SEZs over time to construct a novel continuous measure of SEZ exposure using historical satellite imagery. In a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment, we examine the impact of SEZ exposure on local labour market outcomes at the district-level for the period 2009–2019. We find that the expansion of SEZs has led to a rapid shift in employment from own-account and family work in agriculture to manufacturing in foreign firms. We also show that SEZ exposure leads to higher wages and more formal employment contracts. Earnings improvements are not confined to workers in foreign manufacturing firms, but spill over to workers in household businesses and domestic firms. The effects on women account for most of these impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103467"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probing the limits of mobile phone metadata for poverty prediction and impact evaluation
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462
Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas , Joshua E. Blumenstock , Travis J. Lybbert , Daniel S. Putman
{"title":"Probing the limits of mobile phone metadata for poverty prediction and impact evaluation","authors":"Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas ,&nbsp;Joshua E. Blumenstock ,&nbsp;Travis J. Lybbert ,&nbsp;Daniel S. Putman","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A series of recent papers demonstrate that mobile phone metadata can, together with machine learning, estimate the wealth of individual subscribers and accurately target cash transfer programs. In the context of an emergency cash transfer program in Haiti, we combine surveys and mobile phone call detail records (CDR) to test whether such methods can be used to estimate the program’s impact on household expenditures. We find that CDR-based predictions of total and food expenditures are much less accurate than predictions of wealth—particularly when estimated on a relatively homogeneous sample of rural communities eligible for the program. While impact estimates based on conventional survey data are positive and statistically significant, estimates based on CDR predictions are not statistically significant. In a postmortem discussion, we assess reasons for this failure and discuss the implications for using big data in poverty measurement and impact evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103462"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Parental responses to child disability: Gender differences and relative earnings
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103460
T. Terry Cheung , Kamhon Kan , Tzu-Ting Yang
{"title":"Parental responses to child disability: Gender differences and relative earnings","authors":"T. Terry Cheung ,&nbsp;Kamhon Kan ,&nbsp;Tzu-Ting Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how child disability affect parental labor supply using a difference-in-differences design and Taiwanese population-wide administrative data. The results show that child disability reduces mothers’ employment rate and annual earnings by 9% and 12%, respectively, and these impacts persist for at least ten years. In contrast, fathers’ labor supply remains largely unchanged. We also find that even when mothers were the primary earner, fathers’ labor market outcomes suffer less setbacks than mothers’. This suggests that beyond relative earnings, non-market factors such as differences in caregiving abilities and gender norms may contribute to these disparities. Additionally, our findings indicate that child disability increases mothers’ likelihood of seeking psychiatric care shortly after childbirth and decreases the family’s probability of having subsequent children.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103460"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466
Nina Jovanovic , Jacob Ricker-Gilbert
{"title":"Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia","authors":"Nina Jovanovic ,&nbsp;Jacob Ricker-Gilbert","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers' adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103466"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143369655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Universal secondary education, schooling and women ’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464
Douglas Kazibwe , Jinhu Li
{"title":"Universal secondary education, schooling and women ’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda","authors":"Douglas Kazibwe ,&nbsp;Jinhu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate the long-term effects of Uganda’s 2007 Universal Secondary Education (USE) policy, which expanded secondary education access through tuition-fee elimination and increased school capacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit variations in birth cohorts and regional exposure to identify the policy’s causal impacts on women’s educational attainment and empowerment. Our results show significant gains in education and empowerment for women in areas with greater program intensity. We also find improvements in women’s labour market outcomes, and in marriage and fertility including delayed age at first sex, birth, cohabitation, and spouse schooling differences. These findings highlight the potential for governments in sub-Saharan Africa to leverage secondary education investments in generating sustained improvement in women’s empowerment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103464"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143348786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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