{"title":"Trust and development in conflict-affected countries: Introduction to a special feature","authors":"Philip Verwimp , Silke Goubin , Patricia Justino , Tilman Brück","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103552","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103552"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"High temperature, power rationing, and firm performance","authors":"Xinya Hao , Yongying Huang , Lin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a theoretical framework and provides causal evidence explaining the rationality of government-imposed power rationing strategies during high-temperature periods in electricity systems lacking market mechanisms and price signals. By combining comprehensive panel data on Chinese firms with high-resolution meteorological data, we document robust evidence that high temperatures significantly reduce both electricity usage and operational performance among firms. We then construct supply shocks based on precipitation anomalies weighted by the inter-provincial hydropower dependence to identify power rationing. These analyses demonstrate the persistent prevalence of firm-level power rationing across China in recent years. Furthermore, we show that while redirecting electricity from industrial to residential sectors during heat-induced shortages reduces firm performance, this represents a welfare-maximizing outcome from a social planner's perspective. Our findings reveal how climate change intensifies inter-sectoral electricity competition, with market inefficiencies playing a critical role in explaining China's rationing patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103541"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Escamilla-Guerrero , Edward Kosack , Zachary Ward
{"title":"The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution","authors":"David Escamilla-Guerrero , Edward Kosack , Zachary Ward","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103515"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mitigating the health impact of a famine: Evidence from the 1985 Ethiopian emergency food aid","authors":"Salvatore Di Falco , Kyungbo Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the long-term mitigating impact of emergency food aid on health status using the food aid response to the Ethiopian famine in 1984 as a case study. Employing novel geospatial data on the location of relief camps where emergency food was distributed, we estimate the effect of proximity to a camp on height in adulthood. We compare different birth timings (born before or during versus after the relief operation) and different villages of birth (born close to versus far from a camp), exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in accessibility to emergency aid. Access to relief operation in early childhood leads to higher stature in adulthood. Aid beneficiaries also display higher later-life labor productivity in the agricultural sector, which suggests that the long-term health consequence of emergency aid may have translated into gains in agricultural productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103531"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The long-term effect of television on children's human capital development in China","authors":"Fangjing Zha, Di Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the long-term impacts of childhood exposure to educational television on human capital formation. We focus on CCTV-14, China's first nationally broadcast channel specifically designed for children. Exploiting variation in the timing of cable and satellite television rollout across communities, we document that access to CCTV-14 led to significant and persistent improvements in non-cognitive skills. These gains are particularly pronounced among left-behind children, suggesting that the channel played a compensatory role in addressing early developmental disadvantages. In contrast, we find no evidence of sustained effects on cognitive outcomes. The observed asymmetry underscores the importance of program content in shaping skill development. Finally, children exposed to CCTV-14 are more likely to achieve a higher socioeconomic status, better health, and enhanced digital literacy than those who did not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103538"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Housing costs and real income differences across Chinese cities","authors":"Ziyang Chen , Pierre-Philippe Combes , Sylvie Démurger , Xiuyan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document variations in real income for high-skilled, low-skilled, and rural migrant households across Chinese cities. Using comprehensive data on land parcel transactions along with individual data for land development and household expenditure, we construct a city-specific housing cost index and assess how it varies across locations. All three components of housing costs – unit land prices, land share in construction, and housing share in expenditure – decrease from city centres to the periphery, increase with city population, and decrease with city land area, as predicted by theory. Overall, housing costs in China are high and vary widely between locations. While income gains outweigh housing costs when moving from smaller to larger cities, in the largest cities, housing costs begin to dominate, particularly for low-skilled and rural migrant households. This suggests a bell-shaped relationship between real income and city population in China, aligning with theoretical predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103527"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kibrom A. Abay , Hailemariam Ayalew , Zelalem Terfa , Joseph Karguia , Clemens Breisinger
{"title":"How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?","authors":"Kibrom A. Abay , Hailemariam Ayalew , Zelalem Terfa , Joseph Karguia , Clemens Breisinger","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103532"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enforcement spillovers under different networks: The case of quotas for persons with disabilities in Brazil","authors":"Samuel Berlinski , Jessica Gagete-Miranda","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines labor law enforcement spillovers in Brazil, focusing on disability quota enforcement for formal firms. New inspection procedures increased compliance through heightened inspections and fines, boosting disability hiring. The largest increase is observed among individuals with mobility impairments, followed by those with visual and cognitive impairments. Most new hires came from outside the formal labor market, while some were poached from other firms. Additionally, job tenure for persons with disabilities in large firms improved. We investigate spillover effects across various firm networks: neighborhood, ownership, and human resources specialists. Results show that spillovers can have up to 3.4 times the impact on disability employment compared to direct fines. These findings highlight the potential for targeted enforcement strategies to amplify policy effectiveness beyond directly affected firms, even in developing economies characterized by low compliance with employment laws.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103516"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Voter-buying, politician selection, and public good provision in Brazil","authors":"Ridwan Mohammad Karim","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the consequences of voter-buying, defined as the act of inducing outsiders to fraudulently transfer their voter registration across jurisdictions in exchange for private benefits. Specifically, I explore the effects of Brazil’s 2007 voter re-registration reform which was intended to curb voter-buying. Exploiting a discontinuity in the targeting of municipalities assigned to the reform, I examine the response of mayoral elections, public expenditures and socioeconomic outcomes to the imposition of exogenous barriers to voter-buying. The reform led to an increase in political competition, and positive politician selection. Educated and qualified candidates who are less likely to belong to clientelist parties are more likely to enter and win mayoral elections. These political changes induce a rise in healthcare and school expenditures — programmatic public goods salient to poor voters. These increased expenditures result in better health outcomes, including reduced infant mortality, and better schooling inputs, including more schools, teachers, and student enrollment. Exploration of underlying mechanisms confirms that positive politician selection and changes to the electorate composition are the key drivers of the results. I also show that unintended disenfranchisement and incumbent reputation effects are not driving the results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103507"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jeffrey R. Bloem , Amy Damon , David C. Francis , Harrison Mitchell
{"title":"Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households","authors":"Jeffrey R. Bloem , Amy Damon , David C. Francis , Harrison Mitchell","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 103512"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}