Journal of Development Economics最新文献

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On the right track? Railroads, industrial development, and distributional effects in historical China 在正确的轨道上吗?中国历史上的铁路、工业发展和分配效应
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103827
Shiyu Bo , Ting Chen , Cong Liu , Yan Zhou
{"title":"On the right track? Railroads, industrial development, and distributional effects in historical China","authors":"Shiyu Bo ,&nbsp;Ting Chen ,&nbsp;Cong Liu ,&nbsp;Yan Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present the first quantitative evaluation of the overall impact and distributional effects of railroad access on industrial growth in historical China. Using newly digitized data on railroad expansion and distance to hypothetical railroad networks as instruments, we find that railroad access significantly increased the annual entry of local industrial firms from 1858 to 1936 and industrial output in 1933. However, the effect is highly localized, concentrated in counties within 10 km of railroad lines, and stronger in historical population and transportation centers. Using a causal mediation framework to analyze the textile industry, we find that railroads facilitated firm entry primarily by enhancing market access to manufactured yarn and lowering travel costs for workers and technicians. Further evidence shows that access to railroads promoted technology adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103827"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of export market access on labor market power: Firm-level evidence from Vietnam 出口市场准入对劳动力市场力的影响:来自越南的企业层面证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103826
Trang Hoang , Devashish Mitra , Hoang Pham
{"title":"The effect of export market access on labor market power: Firm-level evidence from Vietnam","authors":"Trang Hoang ,&nbsp;Devashish Mitra ,&nbsp;Hoang Pham","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of an export market expansion created by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) on competition among manufacturing firms in Vietnam’s local labor markets. Using a nonparametric production function approach, we measure distortionary wedges between equilibrium marginal revenue products of labor (MRPL) and wages. We find that the median manufacturing firm pays workers 59% of their MRPL. Following the BTA, which significantly reduced US import tariffs for Vietnamese products, firms in industries exposed more to the tariff reductions saw faster employment growth and faster declines in their MRPL-wage wedge. We find that the BTA permanently decreases labor market distortion in manufacturing by 3.4%, and the effect concentrates on domestic private firms with a magnitude of 4.9%. We exploit information on the gender composition to estimate the MRPL-wage wedges separately for men and women. We find that the median distortion is 26% higher for women relative to men, and the decline in distortion for women, amounting to more than 12%, is the driver of the overall reduction in labor market distortion attributable to the BTA. Our theory and empirics suggest that the entry of FDI firms combined with differential aggregate labor supply elasticities explains these results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103826"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital skills for better jobs: Experimental evidence from a bootcamp training program in Peru 数字技能带来更好的工作:来自秘鲁训练营培训项目的实验证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103838
Rafael Novella , Richard Freund , David Rosas-Shady
{"title":"Digital skills for better jobs: Experimental evidence from a bootcamp training program in Peru","authors":"Rafael Novella ,&nbsp;Richard Freund ,&nbsp;David Rosas-Shady","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate the impacts of an online digital skills bootcamp for youth in Peru. Using a randomized experiment and combining administrative records on formal employment with survey data, we find that the program significantly increases the probability of working in entry-level technology jobs two years post-training. While some bootcamp courses yield positive impacts on formal employment and income, others show no significant effects — resulting in null average impacts overall. Evidence suggests that these differences may be driven by selection into training tracks and limited local labor demand for certain digital skills. Men seem to experience larger formal gains, while women appear more likely to transition into informal flexible jobs. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that selected tracks yield positive net returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103838"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From trade protectionism to legal protectionism: How the Trump trade war harms US firms in China 从贸易保护主义到法律保护主义:特朗普贸易战如何损害在华美国企业
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103829
Shiyu Bo, Wen Liu
{"title":"From trade protectionism to legal protectionism: How the Trump trade war harms US firms in China","authors":"Shiyu Bo,&nbsp;Wen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines an unintended consequence of trade protectionism on US firms resulting from ‘the Trump trade war.’ Using the universe of all civil verdicts containing one million firm-to-firm cases in China from 2014 to 2020, we employ a triple-difference approach to identify the trade war’s causal impact on judicial outcomes. Our findings reveal a significant decline in win rates for US plaintiffs suing Chinese defendants in cities more exposed to tariff shocks, while cases initiated by Chinese or non-US foreign plaintiffs remain unaffected. These results are robust to comparing highly similar cases constructed via an NLP algorithm and accounting for strategic case filing and nonrandom disclosure. Mechanism analysis indicates that our findings are driven by shifts in judges’ attitudes, primarily due to pressures from citizen rather than government capture, whereas highly professional judges serve as a buffer against it.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quality upgrading and productivity gains from domestic market access changes in India 印度国内市场准入变化带来的质量提升和生产率提高
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103830
Sang Hoon Kong
{"title":"Quality upgrading and productivity gains from domestic market access changes in India","authors":"Sang Hoon Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Taking advantage of a major highway project in India, I find that increased access to domestic high-income markets caused productivity gains and quality upgrading among local manufacturing plants. These findings extend existing results on the productivity and quality upgrading effects of exporting to high-income countries to a setting with much narrower income difference between the local and destination markets. However, increased access to domestic high-income markets was not as transformative as exporting. There is mixed evidence on wages that are limited to production workers, who are typically less skilled than non-production workers. It also did not lead to more intensive use of non-production labor. Moreover, there were no effects on the prices of intermediate inputs or the share of imported inputs, suggesting that plants did not use higher-quality inputs. Despite some limitations, domestic high-income markets appear to be viable substitutes for foreign markets, which remain inaccessible to most firms in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103830"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Temporary acceleration or long-term change? Experimental evidence on female empowerment and intimate partner violence in urban Liberia 暂时的加速还是长期的改变?利比里亚城市妇女赋权和亲密伴侣暴力的实验证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103823
David Sungho Park
{"title":"Temporary acceleration or long-term change? Experimental evidence on female empowerment and intimate partner violence in urban Liberia","authors":"David Sungho Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates a multifaceted female empowerment program in urban Liberia that combined intensive psychosocial therapy with vocational skills training over 12 months. The evaluation uses a randomized controlled trial with follow-up surveys at 1 year and 3.5 years post-program (2 and 4.5 years after enrollment). At the first endline, treatment women experienced large reductions in emotional and physical/sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) and in perceived community norms supporting IPV; effects on psychological well-being were null. By 3.5 years, the treatment group’s IPV levels remained close to their first-endline values, but the treatment–control difference had closed because the control group also experienced substantial reductions. Only the gap in perceived community norms persisted. Qualitative evidence points to the psychosocial component as the primary active ingredient, while the economic arm was operationally compromised by the non-delivery of promised capital grants. We interpret the longer-term convergence as durable individual- and interpersonal-level change for treatment women, set against contemporaneous structural interventions in the study region that plausibly affected the control group in particular.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of reminders for self-set goals on productivity 自我设定目标的提醒对生产力的影响
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103822
Martin Abel , Tomoko Harigaya , Michael Kremer , Jessica Zhu
{"title":"The effect of reminders for self-set goals on productivity","authors":"Martin Abel ,&nbsp;Tomoko Harigaya ,&nbsp;Michael Kremer ,&nbsp;Jessica Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how reminders for self-set goals influence productivity by analyzing data from 10,187 volunteer agricultural extension workers in Rwanda. We elicited workers’ goals and experimentally varied their salience through text reminders. Due to unforeseen logistical delays, approximately half of the treatment group received reminders after completing their tasks. We find that goal reminders received during the regular working period increased a productivity index by 0.08 standard deviations, while reminders sent late had no effect. Further analysis of heterogeneity by goal ambition quartiles reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship: reminders are effective for goals in the second and third quartiles, but ineffective for low or excessively high goals. These results suggest that workers who set ambitious yet realistic goals are more likely to respond to reminders and increase productivity, consistent with prior evidence on externally set goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103822"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Raising the bar: An inclusive global poverty line 提高标准:包容性的全球贫困线
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103803
Lant Pritchett , Martina Viarengo
{"title":"Raising the bar: An inclusive global poverty line","authors":"Lant Pritchett ,&nbsp;Martina Viarengo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The first of the United Nations 2015 Sustainable Development Goals is: “End poverty in all its forms everywhere.” An implication of this broad goal is the existence of an array of poverty lines, which raises the question of an appropriate lower-bound and an upper-bound to global poverty lines. The ‘dollar-a-day’ poverty line (updated for inflation to P$2.15 in 2017 PPP) is widely accepted as a global lower-bound poverty line (GLBPL). However, while different countries, organizations, and authors use higher poverty lines, there is no consensus on a global upper bound poverty line (GUBPL). We estimate a GUBPL using two conceptually distinct approaches, both grounded in the tension between the focus axiom for poverty measures and standard economic social welfare measures. We set a candidate GUBPL either at: (i) the consumption consistent with the achievement of adequate material well-being or (ii) the consumption level where marginal utility is “near enough” zero. Using either approach, empirical results across an array of measures of well-being demonstrate that <em>ad hoc</em> poverty lines, including the World Bank's highest reported poverty line of P$6.85, are far too low to be plausible candidates for a GUBPL. Using the two approaches across four distinct indicators of well-being all of the empirical results suggest a GUBPL of <em>at least</em> P$21.5, <em>ten times</em> higher than the standard GLPBL of P$2.15. The use of both a lower bound and upper bound global poverty line balances the radically <em>exclusive</em> nature of the ‘dollar-a-day’ standard, which classifies people with very low levels of material well-being and hence very high marginal utility of income as “not poor” with an equally radically <em>inclusive</em> GUBPL which counts only those with globally high material achievement and low (ish) marginal utility of income as “not poor.”</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103803"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retraction notice to “Natural disasters, intra-national FDI spillovers, and economic divergence: Evidence from India” [J. Dev. Econ. 157 (2022) 102872] “自然灾害、FDI外溢与经济差异:基于印度的实证研究”[J]。发展经济,157 (2022)102872]
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103788
Felix L. Friedt , Aidan Toner-Rodgers
{"title":"Retraction notice to “Natural disasters, intra-national FDI spillovers, and economic divergence: Evidence from India” [J. Dev. Econ. 157 (2022) 102872]","authors":"Felix L. Friedt ,&nbsp;Aidan Toner-Rodgers","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103788","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103788"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148246735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Addressing weak links in government implementation at scale: Experimental evidence from a school governance reform in Tanzania 解决大规模政府实施中的薄弱环节:来自坦桑尼亚学校治理改革的实验证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103824
Jacobus Cilliers, James Habyarimana
{"title":"Addressing weak links in government implementation at scale: Experimental evidence from a school governance reform in Tanzania","authors":"Jacobus Cilliers,&nbsp;James Habyarimana","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper demonstrates how low-cost innovations can improve the implementation of costly government programs. We experimentally evaluate the nationwide roll-out of a new school governance program in Tanzania. As part of the program, school inspectors conduct Whole School Visits (WSVs) producing a set of school-specific ratings and recommendations—targeted at leadership, teachers, and parents—for improving school quality. However, schools faced weak incentives to implement the recommendations, and the local monitors responsible for conducting follow-up visits, who report to a different ministry, lacked direct access to WSV reports. To address this challenge, in a randomly sampled subset of program schools, monitors received text messages informing them of the main recommendations and encouraging them to follow up with schools to ensure compliance. Within the sample of schools that received WSVs, text messages improved student learning by 0.11 standard deviations after two years. Treatment effects are larger for schools that received worse inspection ratings in each domain, consistent with monitors acting on tailored rather than generic recommendations. Observed gains are concentrated in regions exposed to a donor program that provided local bureaucrats with resources to monitor. Our findings show how addressing specific bottlenecks in implementation can significantly enhance the effectiveness of government programs at scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103824"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148184080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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