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On the effects of wildfires on poverty in Bolivia
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103494
Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza , Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Andrey Ramos
{"title":"On the effects of wildfires on poverty in Bolivia","authors":"Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza ,&nbsp;Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas ,&nbsp;Andrey Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of wildfire events on poverty and the labor market in Bolivia. To this end, we match data from NASA’s MODIS Collection-6 MCD64A1 burned area product with household surveys for the period 2005–2020. Similar neighboring municipalities are clustered using the max-p-region algorithm to achieve survey representativeness at granular geographical levels. The causal effects of wildfire events on poverty, household per capita income, and agricultural income are estimated using the Interactive Fixed Effects Counterfactual Estimator. We find a significant short-term increase in poverty following a wildfire event, explained by a temporary decline in household per capita income and agricultural labor income. This paper contributes to enhancing our understanding of how wildfires affect labor markets in developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103494"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do index insurance programs live up to their promises? Aggregating evidence from multiple experiments
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103501
Pauline Castaing , Jules Gazeaud
{"title":"Do index insurance programs live up to their promises? Aggregating evidence from multiple experiments","authors":"Pauline Castaing ,&nbsp;Jules Gazeaud","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite limited uptake, index insurance is often seen as one of the most remarkable innovations of the past decades to help smallholder farmers manage risks and boost their productive investments. In this paper, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model to aggregate evidence from eight experiments and assess the external validity of their results. We find that interventions expanding access to index insurance increase productive investments by 0.06–0.11 SD on average (equivalent to 8%–16% of the control mean). Heterogeneity in treatment effects across studies is high but imprecisely estimated, and controlling for basic, pre-registered household characteristics has no impact on these estimates. Effects on those who take up index insurance are larger but even more heterogeneous. We conclude that the existing evidence base offers limited insights to predict effects in new settings, and that policymakers should be cautious before investing in the widespread promotion of index insurance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103501"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143784071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Compliance and accountability-seeking: Evidence from a field experiment in Argentina
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103492
Krzysztof Krakowski , Lucas Ronconi
{"title":"Compliance and accountability-seeking: Evidence from a field experiment in Argentina","authors":"Krzysztof Krakowski ,&nbsp;Lucas Ronconi","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does compliance with low-cost civic duties increase accountability-seeking behaviors among citizenry? We address this question by conducting a field experiment at train stations in Buenos Aires. We create exogenous variation in compliance with paying the public transportation fare by: (i) highlighting sanctions for non-compliance and ii) appealing to social norms whereby 90% passengers pay the ticket. We find that both sanctions and norms treatments raise compliance. However, only appeals to social norms make treated passengers more willing to sign a petition demanding quality public transportation service—our measure of accountability-seeking behavior. To probe the mechanisms explaining these patterns, we show that compliance invoked by adherence to norms makes subjects feel more entitled to demand accountability and trust the government to a greater extent. Our findings suggest that raising compliance through appeals to social norms may thus have wider benefits for civic behaviors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103492"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dismantling a market for stolen goods: Evidence from the regulation of junkyards in Brazil
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103497
Andre Mancha
{"title":"Dismantling a market for stolen goods: Evidence from the regulation of junkyards in Brazil","authors":"Andre Mancha","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of monitoring and market regulation on the illicit market for stolen goods, focusing on the association between junkyards and auto theft. I explore the effects of a state-level regulation implemented in São Paulo in 2014, which enhanced supervision of the market for auto parts. I find an 8.11% decline in auto theft for municipalities presenting at least one junkyard specialized in auto parts compared to the control group. Additionally, I provide evidence of a meaningful decrease in vehicle insurance prices, suggesting tangible economic benefits for citizens as a result of lower crime rates. These findings offer crucial insights into market regulation as a crime deterrence strategy to reduce the trade of stolen goods, highlighting its complementarity with traditional public security policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103497"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too much of a good thing: Accelerated growth and crime
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103499
Rodrigo R. Soares , Danilo Souza
{"title":"Too much of a good thing: Accelerated growth and crime","authors":"Rodrigo R. Soares ,&nbsp;Danilo Souza","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that oil-producing areas of Brazil experienced increases in crime during the period of increased economic growth driven by the 2000s oil boom. This challenges the understanding that the impact of income shocks on crime is driven primarily by the legal status of the market in question. Offshore oil production, refining, and distribution in Brazil are concentrated in large firms, without scope for income contestability. We show that various equilibrium effects of the shock—such as increased inequality, urbanization, illegal goods presence, and deterioration in public goods provision—are likely to have contributed to the increase in crime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103499"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change response: Input adjustment in agriculture
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103472
Sebastián Figari
{"title":"Climate change response: Input adjustment in agriculture","authors":"Sebastián Figari","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103472","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do farmers respond to climate change? Using data from hundreds of thousands of farms and analyzing medium-term fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in Chile, this study examines factor adjustment as a mechanism to mitigate the effects of climate change. The findings indicate that extreme heat leads to land reallocation from fruit production to cereal and forestry varieties. While this adaptation strategy helps sustain agricultural output, it also leads to job losses and a decline in physical capital within the agricultural sector. This result arises because the fruit sector is the most labor-intensive within agriculture, and as a result, displaced workers struggle to find reemployment within the sector. Additionally, I document a strong relationship between wildfires and extreme heat, particularly in municipalities specializing in forestry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103472"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does perceived labor market competition increase prejudice between refugees and their local hosts? Evidence from Uganda and Ethiopia 感知到的劳动力市场竞争是否会增加难民与当地收容者之间的偏见？乌干达和埃塞俄比亚的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103481
Julie Bousquet , Anna Gasten , Mark Marvin Kadigo , Jean-François Maystadt , Colette Salemi
{"title":"Does perceived labor market competition increase prejudice between refugees and their local hosts? Evidence from Uganda and Ethiopia","authors":"Julie Bousquet ,&nbsp;Anna Gasten ,&nbsp;Mark Marvin Kadigo ,&nbsp;Jean-François Maystadt ,&nbsp;Colette Salemi","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether perceptions of labor market competition negatively influence out-group attitudes between refugees and their local hosts using a survey vignette experiment conducted in urban and rural Ethiopia and Uganda. Our vignette consists of a short story about a fictional job-seeker in which we randomize the citizenship (refugee/national) and occupation (same as/different from respondent). Our estimates suggest that host attitudes are significantly more negative when the vignette character is a refugee in the same occupation. Such prejudice against the out-group is not confirmed among refugees. Exploring the context-dependency of our results, evidence suggests that negative attitudes towards refugees that are tied to perceived labor market competition largely manifest in contexts of limited refugee worker presence. Hence, perceived labor market competition contributes to prejudicial attitudes, but results suggest that these perceived threats do not necessarily coincide with experienced labor market competition between refugees and their hosts. Additional heterogeneity analysis based on prior contact and ethno-linguistic proximity provides suggestive evidence that cross-group interactions reduce the salience of perceived labor market competition as a driver of out-group prejudice in refugee settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103481"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of market frictions in demand for prepaid electricity
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495
Megan Lang
{"title":"The role of market frictions in demand for prepaid electricity","authors":"Megan Lang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prepaid electricity contracts lower enforcement costs but may burden consumers, particularly when market frictions are present. I randomly offer 2,000 rural Rwandese consumers a line of credit for electricity payments that lowers liquidity constraints and transaction costs. Twenty percent borrow and demand for the credit is inelastic; however, the line of credit does not change average demand for electricity. Detailed administrative data reveal that consumers primarily use the line of credit to lower transaction costs, suggesting that rural consumers highly value convenience. The results highlight potential Pareto improvements from more flexible prepaid contracts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103495"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Missing repayments on haze days: Evidence from China
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491
Jianwen Li , Keyang Li , Yuan Ren
{"title":"Missing repayments on haze days: Evidence from China","authors":"Jianwen Li ,&nbsp;Keyang Li ,&nbsp;Yuan Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of air pollution on a universal financial decision that is cognitively less demanding. Based on 281,314 repayment records from a leading P2P lending platform in China, we find that borrowers are more likely to miss their repayments when the scheduled repayment days witness heavier air pollution. A deterioration of air quality from “excellent” to “severely polluted” is associated with an instantaneous and transitory increase in delinquency rate by 143.3 basis points (11.3%). Instrumental variable estimates based on pollution transport via wind or thermal inversion show similar results. Our findings are consistent with air pollution prompting borrowers to forget their repayment obligations, which do not indicate financial distress. However, pollution-induced delinquencies reduce borrowers’ credit ratings and success rates of future loan applications, with the effect being as large as that due to delinquencies unlikely to be driven by pollution, implying a misallocation of credit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103491"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the effects of group composition by risk for violence. Experimental evidence from El Salvador
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480
Lelys Dinarte-Diaz
{"title":"Understanding the effects of group composition by risk for violence. Experimental evidence from El Salvador","authors":"Lelys Dinarte-Diaz","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Globally, 150 million adolescents report experiencing or engaging in peer-to-peer violence in and around schools. After-school programs (ASPs) have emerged as a strategy to mitigate this risk, but how does the peer group composition, based on the risk of violence, influence an ASP’s effectiveness? To address this question, I conducted a randomized experiment in El Salvador, assigning youths to a control group, homogeneous peer groups, or heterogeneous peer groups within an ASP. I find that there are limited average differences between the homogeneous and heterogeneous groups. This lack of differences is explained by the differential impacts of group composition based on students’ baseline propensity for violence: the heterogeneous treatment benefits the most vulnerable students and does not harm the least vulnerable. Additionally, the opposing effects of group composition components play a role: a higher mean of peers’ risk for violence worsens outcomes, while a higher variance improves them. These findings have important implications for public policy, offering insights into optimal group composition for violence reduction programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103480"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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