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A two-wave death story: fentanyl overdoses in the US, bullets in Mexico 两波死亡故事：美国芬太尼过量，墨西哥子弹
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103542
Iván López Cruz , Gustavo Torrens
{"title":"A two-wave death story: fentanyl overdoses in the US, bullets in Mexico","authors":"Iván López Cruz ,&nbsp;Gustavo Torrens","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We establish a link between the fentanyl crisis in the US starting in 2013 and a second wave of drug-related violence in Mexico. We argue that the demand for fentanyl from the US pushed emerging Pacific-based Mexican drug trafficking organizations to reoptimize their trafficking routes, leading to new clashes and violence, often in locations barely affected by the first wave of violence caused by the 2007 Mexican War on Drugs. Exploiting the differential impact that the Mexican War on Drugs and the demand of fentanyl had on different municipalities, we estimate that fentanyl caused about 20 additional homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103542"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina 提高最低工资会破坏就业吗？来自阿根廷回归不连续设计的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558
Nicolás Abbate , Bruno Jiménez
{"title":"Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina","authors":"Nicolás Abbate ,&nbsp;Bruno Jiménez","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103558"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes 对天气的误判：利用地球观测数据估计社会经济结果
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103553
Anna Josephson , Jeffrey D. Michler , Talip Kilic , Siobhan Murray
{"title":"The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes","authors":"Anna Josephson ,&nbsp;Jeffrey D. Michler ,&nbsp;Talip Kilic ,&nbsp;Siobhan Murray","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The availability of weather data from remotely sensed earth observation (EO) products has reduced the cost to economists of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict socioeconomic outcomes and serve as an input into modeling crop productivity in rainfed agriculture. The use of EO data in econometric applications has only recently been met with a critical assessment of the suitability and quality of this data in economics. We document variability in estimates of agricultural productivity in six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using nine different EO data products. By varying the source of the EO data we demonstrate the magnitude and significance of measurement error. We find that estimates are not robust to the choice of EO data and outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. This begs caution on the part of researchers using these data and suggests that robustness checks should include testing alternative sources of EO data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103553"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting 我们的邻居到底知道多少？社区定位的局限性
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555
Carly Trachtman , Yudistira Hendra Permana , Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo
{"title":"How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting","authors":"Carly Trachtman ,&nbsp;Yudistira Hendra Permana ,&nbsp;Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103555"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144623683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes 教师培训和社区扫盲计划对教师和学生成果的影响
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103578
Feliciano Chimbutane , Naureen Karachiwalla , Catalina Herrera-Almanza , Jessica Leight , Carlos Lauchande
{"title":"The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes","authors":"Feliciano Chimbutane ,&nbsp;Naureen Karachiwalla ,&nbsp;Catalina Herrera-Almanza ,&nbsp;Jessica Leight ,&nbsp;Carlos Lauchande","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103578"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood shocks, heterogeneous risk exposure, and housing market dynamics in China 洪水冲击、异质性风险暴露与中国房地产市场动态
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103581
Yu Zhao , Yichen Yang , Ning Zhang
{"title":"Flood shocks, heterogeneous risk exposure, and housing market dynamics in China","authors":"Yu Zhao ,&nbsp;Yichen Yang ,&nbsp;Ning Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the economic consequences of flood shocks on housing markets in China. By combining detailed housing transaction records with granular geospatial-environmental information, we document robust evidence of heterogeneous impacts of flooding within local housing markets. Specifically, transaction prices and volumes decline in low-lying areas, while prices increase but volumes remain stable in high-elevation areas. These asymmetric responses are largely attributable to the risk-averse location choices of buyers and the shifts in the geographic composition of sellers’ listings. Furthermore, we find evidence of spillovers, with unmet local demand flowing into adjacent safer markets. A conservative welfare estimation indicates that flood-induced welfare losses from housing markets are considerable—18 times greater than the direct economic damages—and are borne almost entirely by buyers. Our findings also highlight the crucial role of government intervention in mitigating post-disaster market inefficiencies and facilitating a more balanced spatial distribution of welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103581"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asylum seekers and host country mental health: Evidence from Germany and Switzerland 寻求庇护者和东道国心理健康：来自德国和瑞士的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103579
Prashant Bharadwaj , Daniel Graeber , Stephanie Khoury , Christian P.R. Schmid
{"title":"Asylum seekers and host country mental health: Evidence from Germany and Switzerland","authors":"Prashant Bharadwaj ,&nbsp;Daniel Graeber ,&nbsp;Stephanie Khoury ,&nbsp;Christian P.R. Schmid","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to recent conflicts and humanitarian issues, millions of people have sought asylum in countries in Europe. The influx of asylum seekers has sparked debates about the impacts of such migratory flows on resident populations. We study how the recent migration of these forcibly displaced people into Europe affects the mental health of the receiving country residents in Switzerland and Germany. We exploit quasi-random variation in asylum seeker placement by matching settlement data with administrative health insurance data on mental health related treatments and survey data capturing self-reported mental health. Despite numerous possible mechanisms, in both countries, we find no economically meaningful effects of asylum seeker flows on residents’ mental health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103579"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The national-integration effect of compulsory education: Evidence from Chinese minorities 义务教育的民族融合效应：来自中国少数民族的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103582
Zhi-An Hu , Wei Luo
{"title":"The national-integration effect of compulsory education: Evidence from Chinese minorities","authors":"Zhi-An Hu ,&nbsp;Wei Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can governments promote national integration through compulsory education? We examine this question in the context of China's Compulsory Education Law, which was initiated in 1986 and implemented across provinces in subsequent years. Exploiting variation in individual exposure to the policy during ages 6–15, we find that ethnic minorities with longer exposure were more likely to enter interethnic marriages. This effect is stronger in regions with lower residential segregation and among groups more affected by language unification. Minorities with longer exposure also tended to choose less ethnically distinctive names for their children, suggesting a degree of acculturation. Furthermore, we show that compulsory education fostered shared civic values and a strong sense of national identity among minority populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103582"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Good from Far, Far from Good: The impacts of the 2016 female labor reform in Iran 远的好，远的不好：2016年伊朗女性劳动改革的影响
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103572
Maggie Xiaoyang Chen , Ebad Ebadi
{"title":"Good from Far, Far from Good: The impacts of the 2016 female labor reform in Iran","authors":"Maggie Xiaoyang Chen ,&nbsp;Ebad Ebadi","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impacts of the 2016 female labor reform in Iran – a country with one of the world’s poorest gender equity records – mandating employers to reduce working hours without pay cuts for eligible female workers to “ensure the social security of vulnerable women.” Using nationally representative quarterly household income and expenditure survey data, our analysis shows that the reform led to a modest reduction in the working hours of eligible women but fell short of its stated objectives. Moreover, the reform resulted in declines in employment, particularly in the formal sector, among both targeted mothers and non-targeted women of childbearing age. Targeted households also experienced reductions in expenditures, especially in education spending. These findings highlight that gender-specific policies failing to incentivize employers can exacerbate labor market distortions and household welfare disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103572"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China 拯救一个拥有新精英的旧政权？在中国选择外国教育背景的议员的意外影响
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580
Chu Lin , Wei Sun , Chengli Wang
{"title":"Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China","authors":"Chu Lin ,&nbsp;Wei Sun ,&nbsp;Chengli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does the co-optation of foreign-educated elites influence local stability? This study exploits a quasi-experimental setting created by the establishment of provincial Consultative Bureaus in China in 1909 to examine the political consequences of integrating Japan-educated returnees into local governance. Using an original, prefecture-by-month panel dataset across 262 prefectures from 1901 to 1911, we find that co-opting foreign-educated elites produced unintended effects: it significantly reduced revolutionary armed struggles (the “revolution effect”), but simultaneously increased peasant revolts (the “revolt effect”). Mechanism analysis suggests that returnees advocated reforms that intensified local tax burdens—particularly in economically strained regions—provoking peasant revolts. Our findings underscore a critical trade-off in the modernization efforts of autocratic regimes: when elites’ reformist ambitions outpace the adaptive capacity of society, well-intended reforms can generate unintended backlash.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103580"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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