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Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China 拯救一个拥有新精英的旧政权？在中国选择外国教育背景的议员的意外影响
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580
Chu Lin , Wei Sun , Chengli Wang
{"title":"Saving an old regime with new elites? The unintended effects of co-opting foreign-educated councilors in China","authors":"Chu Lin ,&nbsp;Wei Sun ,&nbsp;Chengli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does the co-optation of foreign-educated elites influence local stability? This study exploits a quasi-experimental setting created by the establishment of provincial Consultative Bureaus in China in 1909 to examine the political consequences of integrating Japan-educated returnees into local governance. Using an original, prefecture-by-month panel dataset across 262 prefectures from 1901 to 1911, we find that co-opting foreign-educated elites produced unintended effects: it significantly reduced revolutionary armed struggles (the “revolution effect”), but simultaneously increased peasant revolts (the “revolt effect”). Mechanism analysis suggests that returnees advocated reforms that intensified local tax burdens—particularly in economically strained regions—provoking peasant revolts. Our findings underscore a critical trade-off in the modernization efforts of autocratic regimes: when elites’ reformist ambitions outpace the adaptive capacity of society, well-intended reforms can generate unintended backlash.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103580"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Keeping an eye on the villain: Assessing the impact of surveillance cameras on crime 密切关注恶棍：评估监控摄像头对犯罪的影响
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103557
Hong Ma , Mingzhi Xu , Wei You , Jinmei Feng
{"title":"Keeping an eye on the villain: Assessing the impact of surveillance cameras on crime","authors":"Hong Ma ,&nbsp;Mingzhi Xu ,&nbsp;Wei You ,&nbsp;Jinmei Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study estimates the causal impact of the massive installation of surveillance cameras on crime, using novel data from China between 2014 and 2019. Leveraging the preexisting presence of local camera manufacturers as an instrument for camera deployment intensity, we find that cities with denser surveillance networks experienced significantly steeper declines in crime. The reduction is more pronounced for publicly visible crimes. Enhanced surveillance is linked to higher satisfaction with the government and a greater sense of security, which in turn leads to longer working hours. A back-of-envelope calculation shows that preventing a crime costs approximately $6,373, which is highly cost-effective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103557"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global income poverty measurement with preference heterogeneity: Theory and application 基于偏好异质性的全球收入贫困测量：理论与应用
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103544
Benoit Decerf , Mery Ferrando , Natalie Naïri Quinn
{"title":"Global income poverty measurement with preference heterogeneity: Theory and application","authors":"Benoit Decerf ,&nbsp;Mery Ferrando ,&nbsp;Natalie Naïri Quinn","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is growing support for monitoring global poverty using a measure that accounts for both own and relative income. We show how – in the context of heterogeneous preferences over these factors – the well-known conflict between fairness and welfare-consistency can be resolved, providing the first preference-based foundation for both the established societal global poverty line and the recently proposed hierarchical poverty indices. We reformulate one hierarchical index as a modified headcount ratio. Unlike all classic poverty indices, this index is necessarily reduced when an individual escapes poverty. Our empirical illustration highlights that our proposed index substantially changes the assessment of global poverty reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103544"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis 数字连接与企业参与国外市场：基于出口商的双边分析
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103551
Michele Imbruno , Joël Cariolle , Jaime de Melo
{"title":"Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis","authors":"Michele Imbruno ,&nbsp;Joël Cariolle ,&nbsp;Jaime de Melo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the bilateral digital connectivity resulting from the deployment of telecommunications SubMarine Cable (SMC) affects firm participation in export markets. Based on a heterogeneous firm model and using an unbalanced panel of bilateral trade data across 48 countries during the period 1997–2014, we find that an SMC connection between two countries is associated with an increase in the number of bilateral exporters in developed countries, together with a reduction in the number of bilateral exporters in developing countries. This negative association between bilateral connectivity and firm participation in export markets appears to be stronger in the poorest developing areas, where firms have lower digital absorptive capacity: Middle East &amp; North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The growth in world connectivity spurred by SMCs deployment has therefore had a heterogeneous effect on firms’ decision to export, pushing more firms from high-income countries to enter export markets and some incumbent exporters from lower-income countries to exit them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103551"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144511092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The unintended consequences of trade protection on the environment 贸易保护对环境的意外后果
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103547
Taipeng Li , Lorenzo Trimarchi , Rui Xie , Guohao Yang
{"title":"The unintended consequences of trade protection on the environment","authors":"Taipeng Li ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Trimarchi ,&nbsp;Rui Xie ,&nbsp;Guohao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the 2018–2019 US–China trade war as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze how rising trade barriers undermine environmental regulation in China through political incentives. Through a difference-in-differences strategy exploiting variation in Chinese prefecture-level exposure to US tariffs, we find more exposed areas significantly reduce environmental regulation emphasis and raise pollution limits. This response operates through political incentives: connected Chinese officials more readily relax standards, and those who do gain higher promotion probability in exposed areas. Using satellite data and instrumental variables, we show this deregulation increased CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions in China. While finding no significant effects on aggregate economic activity, firm-level analysis reveals environmental deregulation helped sustain production and employment, but only in prefectures implementing substantial regulatory changes. Our results provide first evidence that protectionist policies targeting countries with weak environmental institutions may trigger a “race to the bottom” in regulatory standards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103547"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inside the black box of child penalties: Unpaid work and household structure 在儿童惩罚的黑盒子里：无偿工作和家庭结构
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103554
Sandra Aguilar-Gomez , Eva O. Arceo-Gomez , Elia De la Cruz Toledo
{"title":"Inside the black box of child penalties: Unpaid work and household structure","authors":"Sandra Aguilar-Gomez ,&nbsp;Eva O. Arceo-Gomez ,&nbsp;Elia De la Cruz Toledo","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The adverse effects of motherhood on market work are a persistent source of gender inequality. Using high-frequency data from Mexico, we unveil the dynamics of households’ time budgets around childbirth. Mothers’ disproportionate increases in unpaid work hours—which rise by more than 9 h per week more than men’s—offset their decreased labor supply. A 5-hour gender gap in total productive time originates after childbirth. Other women in the household, including girls, adjust their time allocation to care for the newborn significantly more than male household members, perpetuating gender roles. Through the participation of female family members in childcare, family structure emerges as a relevant factor determining parental time allocation, disproportionately benefiting men. The potential cost of outsourcing the added time burden on mothers represents 24% of household income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103554"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving school leadership in Rwanda 改善卢旺达的学校领导
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103545
Simeon Lauterbach , Lee Crawfurd , Jocelyne C. Kirezi , Aimable Nsabimana , Jef Peeraer
{"title":"Improving school leadership in Rwanda","authors":"Simeon Lauterbach ,&nbsp;Lee Crawfurd ,&nbsp;Jocelyne C. Kirezi ,&nbsp;Aimable Nsabimana ,&nbsp;Jef Peeraer","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can effective school leadership enhance high-stakes test scores in low-income countries? To address this question, we examine the short-term impact of a school leadership professional development program that was implemented by VVOB across 525 primary schools in the six lowest-performing districts of Rwanda between 2018 and 2019. The program aimed to strengthen the leadership, management, and teacher support skills of school headteachers. We find that the program had small but statistically insignificant effects on Primary Leaving Examination scores within one to two years after the intervention. However, the program led to a five to six percentage point increase in teacher retention rates, with qualitative evidence suggesting that headteachers provided greater support to teachers, in particular during the onboarding process. Future research should focus on refining such programs and understanding which mechanisms are necessary to also improve learning outcomes of students.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103545"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and quality upgrading: Third-country effects 贸易自由化与质量提升：第三国效应
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103548
Deniz Atalar
{"title":"Trade liberalization and quality upgrading: Third-country effects","authors":"Deniz Atalar","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper theoretically and empirically shows that trade liberalization can have serious effects on firms within a third country which was not party to the trade liberalization, but which previously benefited from the trade barrier in trading with the liberalizing country. The liberalization increases competition for exporters in the third country, just as it does for firms in the liberalizing country. When a policy of liberalization is implemented towards a country that specializes in low quality products, mid-productivity firms respond by upgrading the quality of their exports to escape intensified competition. I empirically test this theoretical finding by analyzing how Turkish firms responded to the elimination of EU quotas on China in 2005. Following this trade liberalization, the unit value of the products exported by mid-productivity Turkish firms to the EU increased by 8 percentage points more than that of the control group. This upward adjustment in the unit value of exports was accompanied by a 3 percentage point increase in the average unit value of imported inputs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103548"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why is female labor force participation declining in China? A perspective from urban commuting 为什么中国女性的劳动参与率在下降？来自城市通勤的视角
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103562
Shenglong Liu , Xingyu Pan , Yuanyuan Wan , Xiaoming Zhang , Shaojie Zhou
{"title":"Why is female labor force participation declining in China? A perspective from urban commuting","authors":"Shenglong Liu ,&nbsp;Xingyu Pan ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Wan ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Zhang ,&nbsp;Shaojie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increase in commuting time due to traffic congestion is a widespread dilemma faced by most major cities worldwide. In addition to its impact on environmental pollution and personal health issues, it can negatively impact the labor supply. Utilizing microdata from China’s 1% population census data in 2015, we find that for every additional minute of commuting time, the probability of labor participation among married women decreases by an average of 0.5 percentage points. The variation in commuting time can explain about 40% of the differences in labor participation rates of married women across cities in our sample. Our study also sheds light on the puzzle of declining female labor participation in China over the past decade, specifically in the context of the nation’s rapid urban expansion and escalating commuting time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103562"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regulating manufacturing FDI: Local labor market responses to a protectionist policy in Indonesia 规范制造业FDI：印尼当地劳动力市场对保护主义政策的反应
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103563
Esther Gehrke , Robert Genthner , Krisztina Kis-Katos
{"title":"Regulating manufacturing FDI: Local labor market responses to a protectionist policy in Indonesia","authors":"Esther Gehrke ,&nbsp;Robert Genthner ,&nbsp;Krisztina Kis-Katos","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effect of rising protectionism towards foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic employment, exploiting revisions in Indonesia’s highly granular negative investment list and spatial variation in the initial location of affected firms. The increase in FDI restrictions led to local employment gains, accounting for about one-tenth of the aggregate employment growth observed in Indonesia between 2006 and 2016. These gains were accompanied by a reorganization of the local production structure and new firm entries in the manufacturing sector, particularly among small firms with fewer than 20 employees. While these results are consistent with an increase in the labor-to-capital ratio among regulated firms, we find that at least three-quarters of the employment gains are driven by indirect effects, including integration of firms in local value chains, and increased immigration. However, we do not find evidence of welfare gains at the local level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144331423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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