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High-speed railroads and local agricultural development 高速铁路和地方农业发展
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647
Xiaoguang Chen , Binlei Gong , Zhilong Qin , Xiaoli Wang
{"title":"High-speed railroads and local agricultural development","authors":"Xiaoguang Chen ,&nbsp;Binlei Gong ,&nbsp;Zhilong Qin ,&nbsp;Xiaoli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impacts of China's extensive high-speed railroads (HSR) expansions using both county-level and household-level agricultural data. Our estimates indicate that HSR expansions: (<em>i</em>) facilitated the outflow of labor from agriculture and reduced cropland in connected rural areas, particularly in underdeveloped regions; (<em>ii</em>) increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), effectively offsetting the negative impacts on agricultural output from reduced inputs; (<em>iii</em>) significantly boosted local GDP and government revenue, providing financial support for agriculture and critical investments in agricultural infrastructure and rural roads; (<em>iv</em>) facilitated farmers' access to technical training and encouraged the entry of new agribusiness firms; and (<em>v</em>) increased farmers' revenues and profits, strengthening their economic incentives for production and collectively improving agricultural TFP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103647"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital revitalization or useless effort? Public e-commerce support and local specialty sales 数字复兴还是无用的努力？公共电商支持和地方特产销售
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665
Xintong Han , Jan Victor Dee , Shaojia Wang , Kefan Chen
{"title":"Digital revitalization or useless effort? Public e-commerce support and local specialty sales","authors":"Xintong Han ,&nbsp;Jan Victor Dee ,&nbsp;Shaojia Wang ,&nbsp;Kefan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how a government-initiated e-commerce platform (GEP) affects sales of a local specialty in China’s Pu’er tea market. Using a unique dataset from field experiments and surveys of 983 farmers, we examine changes in online and offline sales over time. We employ two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models to identify the causal impact of GEP access. The results reveal significant substitution effects: access to the GEP increases online sales by 16.649% and decreases offline sales by 15.549%, indicating an overall shift from offline to online sales. On the extensive margin, households that previously sold only offline become more likely to sell online. On the intensive margin, adopters expand their online channels and offer a wider range of tea qualities. The mediation analysis suggests that the increase in online sales channels and product variety accounts for the impact of GEP access on the shift to online transactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103665"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The consumption side of trade shocks: Inequality dynamics and luxury imports 贸易冲击的消费方面：不平等动态和奢侈品进口
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103663
Vinicius Curti Cícero , Laura Heras-Recuero
{"title":"The consumption side of trade shocks: Inequality dynamics and luxury imports","authors":"Vinicius Curti Cícero ,&nbsp;Laura Heras-Recuero","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how a large, exogenous trade shock — triggered by China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 — reshaped income, inequality, and import behavior across Brazilian regions. Using a shift-share instrument based on pre-shock export structures, we show that regions more exposed to China’s demand boom experienced faster growth in per capita income and larger increases in within-region inequality relative to less exposed areas. These changes, in turn, led to rising import values and shifts in composition, especially toward consumption and medium- to high-tech manufactured goods. To analyze these shifts, we classify goods by necessity and luxury status using Brazilian household data and introduce a complementary classification based on the spending patterns of high-income households in the United States. Luxury imports rose most in regions that were initially more unequal or experienced sharper post-shock inequality growth, consistent with non-homothetic preferences and broader theories of stratified consumption. Our findings highlight inequality as a key channel through which trade shocks shape regional import demand in developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103663"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A structural analysis of firms’ transition from informality to formality in Nigeria 尼日利亚企业从非正式向正式转变的结构分析
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103684
Idossou Marius Adom
{"title":"A structural analysis of firms’ transition from informality to formality in Nigeria","authors":"Idossou Marius Adom","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103684","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103684","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper argues that firms’ transition from informality to formality is important in Sub-Saharan Africa but was overlooked in the literature. It develops a structural dynamic model of heterogeneous firms, rationalizing the empirical relationship between transition from informality to formality and taxes, financial constraints, regulations and enforcement. When calibrated to Nigeria’s data, the results of the model show that different policies can significantly reduce informality through both the extensive margin (i.e the creation of new formal firms) and the intensive margin (i.e the formalization of incumbent informal firms) with a positive effect on aggregate production, TFP, and government revenue. In absence of financial constraints, the intensive margin becomes quantitatively insignificant, demonstrating the importance of financial constraints in firms’ decision to delay formalization and underscoring the relevance of transition in modeling informality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103684"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
User-centered approaches to contraceptive counseling: Experimental evidence from urban Malawi 以用户为中心的避孕咨询方法：来自马拉维城市的实验证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103690
Mahesh Karra , Kexin Zhang
{"title":"User-centered approaches to contraceptive counseling: Experimental evidence from urban Malawi","authors":"Mahesh Karra ,&nbsp;Kexin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We test how two user-centered approaches to counseling shape women’s contraceptive preferences and behavior: (1) tailored counseling that presents contraceptive methods based on women’s stated preferences; and (2) prompting women with the choice to invite male partners to counseling. A total of 782 women were randomized to receive tailored or standard counseling, cross-randomized with the prompt to invite their partners. Following counseling, women were offered free transport and access to a family planning clinic for one month. Women who received tailored counseling were less likely to be concordant between their stated preferred method and method use, both intertemporally and contemporaneously. Women who were prompted with partner invitations were less likely to change their stated preferred method but more likely to be concordant between their stated preferred method following counseling and method use at follow-up. While both approaches aimed to facilitate user-centered contraceptive decision-making, neither necessarily yielded strictly preferred outcomes for women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103690"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empowering women through radio: Evidence from Occupied Japan 通过广播赋予妇女权力：来自被占领日本的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103620
Yoko Okuyama
{"title":"Empowering women through radio: Evidence from Occupied Japan","authors":"Yoko Okuyama","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the impact of women’s radio programs that the US-led occupying force aired nationwide in Occupied Japan (1945–1952) to dismantle the prewar patriarchal norms. From the perspective of the economics of identity, the radio messages can be viewed as attempts to alter gendered identity norms, and thus to shift women’s political, economic and family outcomes. Using local variation in radio signal strength driven by soil conditions as an instrumental variable, I show that greater exposure to women’s radio programs increased women’s electoral turnout, and the vote share for female candidates, highlighting women’s votes matter. I find no effects on women’s labor market outcomes, but exposure to women’s radio programs accelerated the postwar fertility transition. Overall, disseminating pro-gender-equality messages can have significant implications for both women’s lives and society at large, potentially paving the way for rapid economic growth that would follow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103620"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Endogenous migration restrictions and population aging in China 中国内生移民限制与人口老龄化
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103674
Zhu Chen , Jipeng Zhang , Kang Zhou
{"title":"Endogenous migration restrictions and population aging in China","authors":"Zhu Chen ,&nbsp;Jipeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Kang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103674","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how local governments in China respond to demographic shifts by reducing migration restrictions through Hukou reform. We construct a novel measure of reform intensity by combining a data-driven approach with textual analysis of official policy documents. By quantifying the share of pre-reform migrants who would qualify for local urban Hukou under the most recent settlement criteria, our measure captures the endogenous constraints embedded in local settlement policies. Using this measure, we estimate the impact of local population aging on Hukou policy changes. We find that cities with higher aging levels are more likely to lower thresholds for migrant settlement, with stronger effects in prefectures facing lower fertility rates. Mechanism analysis further highlights the role of population aging as a driver of labor market deregulation and urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103674"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Weather shocks, recall error and health 天气冲击，召回错误和健康
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644
Annika Herr, Soschia Karimi, Julian Wichert
{"title":"Weather shocks, recall error and health","authors":"Annika Herr,&nbsp;Soschia Karimi,&nbsp;Julian Wichert","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing body of literature indicates that heat stress and precipitation deficiencies can pose a critical threat to human health, particularly in less developed countries with low coping capacities and high exposure. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we shed light on the recall of drought events in rural Thailand by linking longitudinal survey data with objective meteorological data. Here, an anomaly in the survey design serves as a natural experiment. We find that a shorter time interval between surveys has a large positive effect on households correctly reporting a drought event. Second, we examine the health effects of droughts comparing two drought measures. In our panel over seven waves, we find a strong effect on diseases, which is slightly stronger for the objective measure than when using the reported drought measure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Place-based affirmative action in college admission and educational attainment 在大学录取和教育成就方面基于地方的平权行动
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103624
Liqiu Zhao , Yongming Luo , Li Li
{"title":"Place-based affirmative action in college admission and educational attainment","authors":"Liqiu Zhao ,&nbsp;Yongming Luo ,&nbsp;Li Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103624","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103624","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the educational impact of China’s <em>Special College Admission Policy</em> (SCAP), a place-based affirmative action program that reserves key-college seats for students from impoverished rural areas. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, we demonstrate that this policy significantly improves the educational attainment of targeted individuals. On average, policy eligibility increases schooling by 0.55 years and the 4-year college attendance rate by 8.4 percentage points. The educational impact of the SCAP far exceeds the gains attributable to the reserved seats alone. Mechanism analysis reveals that the SCAP incentivizes both individuals and local governments, leading to higher academic high school enrollment and increased private and public investments in education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103624"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Awakening latent human capital: Economic opening up and entrepreneurship in 19th century China 潜在人力资本的觉醒：19世纪中国的经济开放与企业家精神
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103659
Li Duan , Xiaoming Zhang
{"title":"Awakening latent human capital: Economic opening up and entrepreneurship in 19th century China","authors":"Li Duan ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines meritocratic recruitment and incentive issues within the context of China’s initial industrialization. We analyze the impact of upper-tail human capital on entrepreneurship in China between 1840 and 1904, exploring how the Imperial Examination system influenced talent allocation between traditional sectors and modern firms. Our study leverages the treaty port system as an exogenous shock to China’s industrialization, revealing heterogeneous choices made by different echelons of the upper-tail human capital. We find that traditional human capital played a diverse role in modern entrepreneurship, with some intellectuals transitioning to new opportunities while others remained entrenched in bureaucratic roles. Our findings highlight the complex interplay between civil service examinations and economic modernization, offering insights into how bureaucratic structures can influence talent reallocation and industrial development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103659"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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