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The role of market frictions in demand for prepaid electricity 市场摩擦在预付电力需求中的作用
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495
Megan Lang
{"title":"The role of market frictions in demand for prepaid electricity","authors":"Megan Lang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103495","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prepaid electricity contracts lower enforcement costs but may burden consumers, particularly when market frictions are present. I randomly offer 2,000 rural Rwandese consumers a line of credit for electricity payments that lowers liquidity constraints and transaction costs. Twenty percent borrow and demand for the credit is inelastic; however, the line of credit does not change average demand for electricity. Detailed administrative data reveal that consumers primarily use the line of credit to lower transaction costs, suggesting that rural consumers highly value convenience. The results highlight potential Pareto improvements from more flexible prepaid contracts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103495"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Missing repayments on haze days: Evidence from China 雾霾天拖欠还款：来自中国的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491
Jianwen Li , Keyang Li , Yuan Ren
{"title":"Missing repayments on haze days: Evidence from China","authors":"Jianwen Li ,&nbsp;Keyang Li ,&nbsp;Yuan Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of air pollution on a universal financial decision that is cognitively less demanding. Based on 281,314 repayment records from a leading P2P lending platform in China, we find that borrowers are more likely to miss their repayments when the scheduled repayment days witness heavier air pollution. A deterioration of air quality from “excellent” to “severely polluted” is associated with an instantaneous and transitory increase in delinquency rate by 143.3 basis points (11.3%). Instrumental variable estimates based on pollution transport via wind or thermal inversion show similar results. Our findings are consistent with air pollution prompting borrowers to forget their repayment obligations, which do not indicate financial distress. However, pollution-induced delinquencies reduce borrowers’ credit ratings and success rates of future loan applications, with the effect being as large as that due to delinquencies unlikely to be driven by pollution, implying a misallocation of credit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103491"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the effects of group composition by risk for violence. Experimental evidence from El Salvador 了解群体构成对暴力风险的影响。来自萨尔瓦多的实验证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480
Lelys Dinarte-Diaz
{"title":"Understanding the effects of group composition by risk for violence. Experimental evidence from El Salvador","authors":"Lelys Dinarte-Diaz","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Globally, 150 million adolescents report experiencing or engaging in peer-to-peer violence in and around schools. After-school programs (ASPs) have emerged as a strategy to mitigate this risk, but how does the peer group composition, based on the risk of violence, influence an ASP’s effectiveness? To address this question, I conducted a randomized experiment in El Salvador, assigning youths to a control group, homogeneous peer groups, or heterogeneous peer groups within an ASP. I find that there are limited average differences between the homogeneous and heterogeneous groups. This lack of differences is explained by the differential impacts of group composition based on students’ baseline propensity for violence: the heterogeneous treatment benefits the most vulnerable students and does not harm the least vulnerable. Additionally, the opposing effects of group composition components play a role: a higher mean of peers’ risk for violence worsens outcomes, while a higher variance improves them. These findings have important implications for public policy, offering insights into optimal group composition for violence reduction programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103480"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of digital technology on worker tasks: Do labor policies matter? 数字技术对工人任务的影响：劳工政策重要吗？
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103475
Rita K. Almeida , Carlos H.L. Corseuil , Jennifer P. Poole
{"title":"The impact of digital technology on worker tasks: Do labor policies matter?","authors":"Rita K. Almeida ,&nbsp;Carlos H.L. Corseuil ,&nbsp;Jennifer P. Poole","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Between 1999 and 2006, Brazilian cities experienced strong growth in the provision of internet services, driven in part by the privatization of the telecommunications industry. A main concern of policymakers is that digital technology replaces routine, manual tasks, displacing lower-skilled workers that mainly perform these tasks. In Brazil, stringent labor market institutions exist to protect workers from such displacement; but, by increasing formal labor costs, labor market regulations also constrain firms from adjusting the workforce to perform new tasks, and fully benefiting from technology adoption. We exploit administrative and survey data, and a triple differences methodology, to show that digital technology adoption shifts labor demand toward the increased performance of non-routine activities and use of cognitive abilities in high-tech industries (those poised to adopt the new technologies) relative to low-tech industries. Furthermore, and in contrast with labor market policy intentions, we show that <em>de facto</em> labor regulations differentially support the use of tasks typically associated with more skilled workers, particularly those workers employed in non-routine and cognitive tasks. Our results point to important changes in the future of labor markets in middle-income settings and warn for distortive and unintended consequences of strict labor market policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103475"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do political connections of firms matter during an economic crisis? 在经济危机中，企业的政治关系有何影响？
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103471
Yutong Chen , Gaurav Chiplunkar , Sheetal Sekhri , Anirban Sen , Aaditeshwar Seth
{"title":"How do political connections of firms matter during an economic crisis?","authors":"Yutong Chen ,&nbsp;Gaurav Chiplunkar ,&nbsp;Sheetal Sekhri ,&nbsp;Anirban Sen ,&nbsp;Aaditeshwar Seth","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103471","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a new machine learning-enabled, <em>social network based</em> measurement technique to assemble a novel dataset of firms’ political connections in India. Combining it with a long panel of detailed financial transactions of firms, we study <em>how</em> firms leverage these connections during an economic downturn. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences framework, we find that connected firms had 8%–10% higher income, sales, and TFPR gains that were persistent for over a three-year period following the crisis. We unpack various novel mechanisms and show that connected firms were able to decrease expensive long-term borrowings from banks in favor of short-term non-collateral ones, increase borrowing from the government, delay their short-term payments to suppliers and creditors, delay debt and interest payments, and increase investments in productive assets such as computers and software. Our method to determine political connections is portable to other applications and contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103471"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating impact with surveys versus digital traces: Evidence from randomized cash transfers in Togo 评估调查与数字痕迹的影响：来自多哥随机现金转移的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103477
Emily Aiken , Suzanne Bellue , Joshua E. Blumenstock , Dean Karlan , Christopher Udry
{"title":"Estimating impact with surveys versus digital traces: Evidence from randomized cash transfers in Togo","authors":"Emily Aiken ,&nbsp;Suzanne Bellue ,&nbsp;Joshua E. Blumenstock ,&nbsp;Dean Karlan ,&nbsp;Christopher Udry","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether program impacts can be estimated using a combination of digital trace data and machine learning. In a randomized controlled trial of cash transfers in Togo, endline survey data indicate positive treatment effects on food security, mental health, and perceived economic status. However, estimates of impact based solely on predicted endline outcomes (generated using trace data and machine learning, which do successfully predict baseline poverty) are generally not statistically significant. When post-treatment outcome data are used in conjunction with predictions to estimate treatment effects, predicted impacts are similar to those estimated using surveys.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103477"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who benefits from job training programs? Evidence from a high-dosage program in Brazil 谁从职业培训项目中受益？证据来自巴西的一个高剂量项目
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103476
Daniel Da Mata , Rodrigo Oliveira , Diana Silva
{"title":"Who benefits from job training programs? Evidence from a high-dosage program in Brazil","authors":"Daniel Da Mata ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Oliveira ,&nbsp;Diana Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using admission lotteries and registry data linking labor market outcomes, we study the short- and medium-term effects of a vocational training program focused on disadvantaged individuals in Brazil. The intensive program is an 18-month classroom training coupled with a 6-month on-the-job training provided by government-sponsored training centers. When assessing the impacts on 15,000 winners and 200,000 nonwinners who graduated in different business cycle moments, we show that female students fare better than their male counterparts. Results are driven by courses in services. Investigating outcomes beyond employment and earnings, we find no effects on entrepreneurship or university admission.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103476"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform 外资银行和企业的出口动态：来自中国银行业改革的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474
Ana P. Fernandes , Jing-Lin Duanmu
{"title":"Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform","authors":"Ana P. Fernandes ,&nbsp;Jing-Lin Duanmu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how banking integration affects export dynamics. To estimate the causal link, we exploit the phased liberalization of the Chinese banking industry to foreign competition across cities, based on WTO accession commitments, and use transaction-level data for all Chinese exporters. Following deregulation of foreign banks’ local-currency business, the increased local presence of foreign banks from the importing country raises export entry, the number of products and initial sales to the same country for firms in the city but has no effect on exit or growth. The effects are significantly more pronounced for exports to more distant countries, for firms in industries with fewer collateralizable assets and those exporting differentiated goods. We uncover the particular channels through which banking integration facilitates exports. The results are consistent with foreign banks’ informational advantage in screening export projects, relying less on collateral for lending decisions, and reducing uncertainty for firms exporting to the banks’ home country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103474"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of COVID-19 on formal firms: Lessons from administrative tax data COVID-19对正规企业的影响：来自行政税收数据的教训
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103461
Pierre Bachas , Anne Brockmeyer , Pablo Garriga , Camille Semelet
{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on formal firms: Lessons from administrative tax data","authors":"Pierre Bachas ,&nbsp;Anne Brockmeyer ,&nbsp;Pablo Garriga ,&nbsp;Camille Semelet","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most low-income countries lack high-frequency firm-level data to monitor the effect of economic shocks in real time. We examine whether administrative tax data can help fill this gap, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In spring 2020, we used the full population of corporate tax returns for 2019 in six developing countries to predict the effect of COVID-induced shocks on formal firms’ activity. Comparing the predictions to the realized 2020 data, we find that firms were more resilient than predicted: the share of unprofitable firms increased by only 7 percentage points, while aggregate profits and taxes paid remained stable. The simulations failed to anticipate that labor and capital inputs would flexibly adjust and that large firms would be very resilient. Complementing our simulations with higher-frequency VAT data would have markedly improved predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103461"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Language training, refugees' healthcare integration, and the next generation's health 语言培训、难民医疗一体化、下一代健康
IF 5.1 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470
Thang Dang
{"title":"Language training, refugees' healthcare integration, and the next generation's health","authors":"Thang Dang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting a policy reform mandating participation in a 300-h language training course in Norway, I investigate the multigenerational health effects of a comprehensive language training program. I document the significant positive impacts of the program, not only on the long-term integration of refugees into the healthcare system but also on the health of the next generation. The program improves the cumulative use of primary care services for 12 years after arrival by 44%. This increase is proposed to partially work through refugees’ increased labor market attachment and economic success. The program also results in spillover benefits for the health at birth of the children of refugees with 21–49% decreases in premature birth, low birth weight, and short birth length. These intergenerational effects probably operate via significant improvements in the home environment and maternal care during pregnancy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103470"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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