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Mining policy reform and civil conflict: Evidence from Myanmar 矿业政策改革与国内冲突：来自缅甸的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103608
Nan Sandi
{"title":"Mining policy reform and civil conflict: Evidence from Myanmar","authors":"Nan Sandi","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper inverts the standard resource-conflict paradigm by examining how resource contraction, rather than expansion, affects civil violence. Exploiting a 2016 moratorium in Myanmar that halted new mining licenses, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy using a novel spatially disaggregated database linking mining activity with geo-coded conflict events from 2011–2020. The contraction led to a 69% reduction in conflict incidents — particularly violent and fatal events — in previously licensed townships. The effects were stronger in ethnic homelands, poorer areas, and remote regions. Strikingly, the analysis uncovers positive spatial spillovers: conflict also declined in neighboring non-mining areas, suggesting that reduced resource extraction diffuses peace rather than displacing violence. Evidence supports three mechanisms: (1) lower mineral rents constrained armed group financing; (2) labor reallocation to productive sectors increased the opportunity cost of violence; and (3) reduced elite rents mitigated local inequality, dampening grievance-based mobilization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103608"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do bilateral labor agreements increase migration? Global evidence from 1960 to 2020 双边劳动协议会增加移民吗？1960年至2020年的全球证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103673
Maheshwor Shrestha , Heidi Kaila , Narcisse Cha’ngom , Samik Adhikari
{"title":"Do bilateral labor agreements increase migration? Global evidence from 1960 to 2020","authors":"Maheshwor Shrestha ,&nbsp;Heidi Kaila ,&nbsp;Narcisse Cha’ngom ,&nbsp;Samik Adhikari","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use comprehensive data on bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) and migration across all country pairs from 1960 to 2020 to estimate the impact of BLAs on migration. In our preferred specification, which includes a rich set of fixed effects, BLAs increase migration by 68 percent (or 0.52 log points) within a decade. Among regular corridors—those with at least ten migrants in each period of the sample—migration increases by 21 percent (or 0.19 log points). Effects are stronger for BLAs involving low- and lower-middle-income origin countries, but are negligible for origin countries in Africa, likely driven by weaker institutional capacity for implementation. Our estimates imply substantial welfare gains through increased migrant earnings. Low- and lower-middle-income countries can gain US$116 million annually from a BLA with a regular destination. If countries in sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar effects, welfare gains could be as high as US$54 million annually.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103673"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digitalization as a double-edged sword: Winning services and losing manufacturing in India 数字化是一把双刃剑：印度服务业赢了，制造业输了
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618
Yutong Chen
{"title":"Digitalization as a double-edged sword: Winning services and losing manufacturing in India","authors":"Yutong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digitalization can increase firm productivity, but in developing countries with labor market frictions, not all firms are able to capitalize on digitalization opportunities. This study uses data from India – where a demonetization policy led to a large increase in digital payments – to examine the impacts of digitalization on firms across sectors in a developing country in the short run. I find that service firms experienced growth in income and productivity while manufacturing firms witnessed a decline. I then explore the mechanisms driving this divergence. The results show that service firms invested more in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and hired more complementary skilled ICT labor, whereas manufacturing firms did not. Notably, this influx of skilled ICT workers into the service sector was drawn from the manufacturing sector due to limited spatial labor mobility. During this period, wages for ICT labor were driven up while remaining stagnant for other workers. These findings underscore how digitalization, in the presence of labor market constraints, can exacerbate short-term sectoral divergence in productivity growth and shed light on its impacts on the growth trajectories of developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103618"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Irrigation infrastructure and satellite-measured land cultivation impacts: Evidence from the Senegal river valley 灌溉基础设施和卫星测量的土地耕作影响：来自塞内加尔河谷的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615
Abdoulaye Cisse , Alain de Janvry , Joel Ferguson , Marco Gonzalez-Navarro , Samba Mbaye , Elisabeth Sadoulet , Mame Mor Anta Syll
{"title":"Irrigation infrastructure and satellite-measured land cultivation impacts: Evidence from the Senegal river valley","authors":"Abdoulaye Cisse ,&nbsp;Alain de Janvry ,&nbsp;Joel Ferguson ,&nbsp;Marco Gonzalez-Navarro ,&nbsp;Samba Mbaye ,&nbsp;Elisabeth Sadoulet ,&nbsp;Mame Mor Anta Syll","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Expanding irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa is widely viewed as a promising strategy for closing yield gaps and enhancing resilience to climate change. Drawing on more than 3,000 satellite images over a 30-year period, we examine the impact of irrigation infrastructure development in the Senegal River Valley. We find that cultivation rates increase substantially following irrigation project completion. Cultivation rates are remarkably stable at around 25 percentage points above pre-irrigation levels for the first 20 years, and trend even higher from years 20 to 25. Moreover, we show that crops cultivated on irrigated land are significantly less sensitive to both positive and negative temperature shocks, underscoring the role of irrigation in climate adaptation. Despite these aggregate gains, we document considerable heterogeneity in project outcomes, with intermittent land use remaining widespread. To shed light on these patterns, we complement the satellite analysis with farmer survey data, which point to persistent water access constraints as a key barrier to continuous cultivation—constraints that cannot be resolved solely through individual farmer action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103615"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh 数据匮乏环境中的影响评价：孟加拉国耐应力水稻品种的案例
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648
Jeffrey D. Michler , Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi , Jonathan Giezendanner , Anna Josephson , Valerien O. Pede , Elizabeth Tellman
{"title":"Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh","authors":"Jeffrey D. Michler ,&nbsp;Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi ,&nbsp;Jonathan Giezendanner ,&nbsp;Anna Josephson ,&nbsp;Valerien O. Pede ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Tellman","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth Observation (EO) data and deep learning with administrative and survey data so as to allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our method, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) first introduced to Bangladesh 15 years ago. Using EO data on rice production and flooding for the entire country, spanning two decades, we find evidence of STRV effectiveness. We highlight how the nature of the technology, which is only effective under a specific set of circumstances, creates a Goldilocks Problem that EO data is particularly well suited to addressing. Our findings speak to the promises and challenges of using EO data to conduct impact evaluations in data-scarce environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103648"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental regulation, induced innovation, and greener transition: Firm-level evidence 环境监管、诱导创新和绿色转型：企业层面的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678
Manho Kang , Jaerim Choi , Sunghoon Chung
{"title":"Environmental regulation, induced innovation, and greener transition: Firm-level evidence","authors":"Manho Kang ,&nbsp;Jaerim Choi ,&nbsp;Sunghoon Chung","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on hazardous chemical use and the role of innovation in firms’ adjustment processes. Using a newly constructed dataset that links firm-level chemical usage with patent activity, we analyze the effects of Korea’s plausibly exogenous chemical safety Acts promulgated in 2015. Our findings show that firms subject to stricter regulations reduced their reliance on hazardous chemicals to comply with the new laws. Innovation plays a crucial role in this transition, facilitating a shift toward eco-friendly practices. Specifically, stricter regulations induced more firm-level innovation, and firms with greater product innovation significantly reduced their hazardous chemical usage. The effect was particularly strong among firms that use hazardous substances as intermediate inputs. These findings demonstrate that well-designed regulation can promote the principles of Green Chemistry, prevention through redesign, by driving innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103678"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effectiveness of carbon emission trading system: Evidence from China's regional markets 碳排放交易制度的有效性：来自中国区域市场的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103631
Yue Li , Jing Zhao
{"title":"The effectiveness of carbon emission trading system: Evidence from China's regional markets","authors":"Yue Li ,&nbsp;Jing Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the effectiveness of China's regional carbon markets, which in 2018 covered 692 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, over 40 % of the coverage of the European Union's ETS. Utilizing a comprehensive city-level panel and synthetic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that China's regional ETSs significantly reduced carbon emissions without negatively impacting city-level economic activities, as measured by nighttime lights and firm-level revenue and profit. This suggests that carbon mitigation can occur alongside economic growth. Emissions reduction was achieved through broad structural transformation and green technologies adoption, rather than green innovation. Effects are more pronounced in regions with greater power sector competition and stronger local state capacity. Finally, we find no evidence of carbon leakage to neighboring areas or to cities with close production ties to ETS cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets 留下还是选择退出？中国婚姻市场的挤压、错配和过剩
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629
Pauline Rossi , Yun Xiao
{"title":"Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets","authors":"Pauline Rossi ,&nbsp;Yun Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103629"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Children’s say in the household 孩子们在家里说了算
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689
Ömer F. Sözbir
{"title":"Children’s say in the household","authors":"Ömer F. Sözbir","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Analyzing children’s agency is crucial for understanding the inner workings of households. This issue is especially salient for developing countries, as childless families constitute a small portion of the population. This study tests the intra-household decision-making power of work-eligible children (age 12–17) in rural Bangladesh using a restriction implied by the collective household model. By comparing households with working and non-working children, the study also tests whether working children have a greater say in their households than non-working ones. The findings suggest some evidence for children’s decision-making power. The unitary household model is strongly rejected, and there is no evidence against Pareto efficiency. The results are particularly useful for the growing body of research that estimates intra-household inequality and individual-level poverty in developing countries using the collective model with certain assumptions on children’s decision-making power. In addition to investigating children’s say in the household, the study addresses several methodological issues in the literature regarding the price-based test of alternative collective models and Pareto efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103689"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Air pollution and manufacturing productivity: Understanding the roles of technology and adaptation 空气污染与制造业生产力：了解技术和适应的作用
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597
Jamie Hansen-Lewis
{"title":"Air pollution and manufacturing productivity: Understanding the roles of technology and adaptation","authors":"Jamie Hansen-Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I analyze the impact of air pollution on manufacturing productivity in India, examining how technology and adaptation influence the damages. Using firm panel and satellite-derived pollution data, I estimate the effect of pollution on productivity, with wind velocity serving as an instrument for air pollution. While sensitivity is detected among labor-intensive industries, no meaningful average effect is found. To explain these patterns, I present a model showing that firms adapt by lowering output to mitigate pollution damages and that industries’ production technology contributes to heterogeneity. Applying the model, I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the labor intensity of production technology results in a 0.6 percentage point greater negative impact of pollution on productivity. The findings imply that the damages of pollution to profits are twice as high among adversely affected industries than the average and four times higher when inputs remain fixed relative to when they adapt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103597"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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