Journal of Development Economics最新文献

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Corrigendum to “The impact of female political leadership on gender attitudes: Evidence from Taiwan's local councils” [J. Dev. Econ. Volume 174, May 2025, 103451] “女性政治领导对性别态度的影响:来自台湾地方议会的证据”[J]。Dev,经济学。第174卷,2025年5月,103451]
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103696
Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu
{"title":"Corrigendum to “The impact of female political leadership on gender attitudes: Evidence from Taiwan's local councils” [J. Dev. Econ. Volume 174, May 2025, 103451]","authors":"Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103696","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A parsimonious approach to predicting income distributions 一种预测收入分配的节俭方法
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103695
Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Marta Schoch, Christoph Lakner, Minh Cong Nguyen
{"title":"A parsimonious approach to predicting income distributions","authors":"Daniel Gerszon Mahler,&nbsp;Marta Schoch,&nbsp;Christoph Lakner,&nbsp;Minh Cong Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a method to predict comparable income and consumption distributions for all countries in the world from a simple regression with a handful of country-level variables. To fit the model, the analysis uses around 2,000 distributions from household surveys covering 168 countries from the World Bank's Poverty and Inequality Platform. More than 1,000 economic, demographic, and remote sensing predictors from multiple databases are used to test the models. A model is selected that balances out-of-sample accuracy, simplicity, and the share of countries for which it can be applied. The paper finds that a parsimonious model relying on gross domestic product per capita, under-5 mortality rate, life expectancy, and rural population share gives almost the same accuracy as a complex machine learning model using 1,000 indicators jointly. This small set of basic indicators related to human development explains most cross-country variation in income distributions and can facilitate distributional analysis even in countries with extreme data deprivation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103695"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145665451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree 高速公路、市场准入与中国产业发展:基于最小生成树的城墙城市面板工具变量
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707
Kecen Jing , Wen-Chi Liao
{"title":"Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree","authors":"Kecen Jing ,&nbsp;Wen-Chi Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emerging countries like China have heavily invested in motorways to improve market access. Such transport network expansion can affect regional industrial development, but causal inference is challenging. Existing studies typically focus on longer-term effects or exclude economically important locations, lacking an identification strategy that can address rapid transport development and cover the country's entire economic geography. To fill this gap, we introduce quasi-random Walled-City MST Panel IVs to instrument market access and examine how China's rapidly expanding expressway network affects manufacturing development. The IVs are generated by simulating dynamic expansion paths of hypothetical networks that ultimately connect all target locations predicted by 1820 city-wall characteristics. Research verifies IV orthogonality and inclusion and exclusion restrictions in both static and dynamic aspects. It conducts horse races between cross-sectional and panel IVs, and between IVs with or without historical city-wall data. The panel IV strategy is useful when both transportation development and economic growth are rapid. Excluding locations is unnecessary. County-level analysis shows that during 2000–2009, when market access improved by 1 %, manufacturing GDP and firm count increased by 0.28 % and 0.07 %. Manufacturers' average output, capital, and labor increased by 0.08 %, 0.06 %, and 0.03 %. There were impacts on regional decentralization, industrial upgrade, and geographic concentration of manufacturers. Trade elasticity is estimated. A model of market access derives estimable equations and rationalizes the economics, with the assumptions of inelastic residential and industrial land supply and mobile capital and labor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103707"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Large firms and the intensive margin of labor informality evidence from an enforcement intervention in Peru 秘鲁一项执法干预的证据表明,大公司和密集的劳动力边际
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103679
Mariano Bosch , Guillermo Cruces , Stephanie González , María Teresa Silva-Porto
{"title":"Large firms and the intensive margin of labor informality evidence from an enforcement intervention in Peru","authors":"Mariano Bosch ,&nbsp;Guillermo Cruces ,&nbsp;Stephanie González ,&nbsp;María Teresa Silva-Porto","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103679","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103679","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In developing countries, informal labor is not only employed by illegal or unregistered firms but also by legal firms that hire workers informally, known as the intensive margin of labor informality. Reducing this type of work may have ambiguous effects on formal employment, depending on factors such as firm size and productivity. In collaboration with Peru's labor inspection authority, we conducted a randomized mailing experiment targeting large firms with a high propensity for employing workers informally. The authority sent letters with either deterrence messages detailing fines for non-compliance or social norms messages highlighting the positive impacts of formality. We analyzed the impact of this intervention on formal employment levels over the following two years using monthly administrative data. The treated firms (particularly those in the deterrence treatment arm) and larger firms increased their formal employment levels. However, these increases followed a seasonal pattern coinciding with the high labor demand during the tourist season, suggesting that prior to the intervention, firms were employing temporary workers informally. The higher perceived cost of non-compliance led them to formalize some of these workers. The informal hiring of seasonal workers by these firms appears to have been motivated by basic tax evasion, and the absence of a negative effect on firm-level formal employment indicates that the firms were exploiting rents from low enforcement of regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103679"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poverty and parental discipline 贫穷和父母管教
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103694
Mo Alloush , Emily Conover , Susan Godlonton
{"title":"Poverty and parental discipline","authors":"Mo Alloush ,&nbsp;Emily Conover ,&nbsp;Susan Godlonton","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Across and within countries, there are large differences in how parents discipline their children, and frequently, poverty is associated with higher levels of physical punishment. We leverage the roll-out of a conditional cash transfer program in Peru to test whether its introduction changes parental discipline practices. We find that in districts that begin to receive the program, the average level of reported physical punishment by mothers and fathers among the poor declines by at least 2.7 percentage points (11%) driven by reductions in slapping. Our findings suggest that program participation may have additional second-order benefits through the reduction of harsh physical forms of discipline practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103694"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beliefs, information sharing, and mental health care use among university students 大学生信仰、信息共享与心理保健使用
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103646
Alisher Batmanov , Idaliya Grigoryeva , Bruno Calderón-Hernández , Roberto González-Téllez , Alejandro Guardiola Ramírez
{"title":"Beliefs, information sharing, and mental health care use among university students","authors":"Alisher Batmanov ,&nbsp;Idaliya Grigoryeva ,&nbsp;Bruno Calderón-Hernández ,&nbsp;Roberto González-Téllez ,&nbsp;Alejandro Guardiola Ramírez","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the role of beliefs and stigma in shaping students’ use of professional mental health services at a large private university in Mexico, where supply-side barriers are minimal and services are readily accessible. In a survey experiment with 680 students, we find that nearly 50% of students in distress do not receive professional mental health support despite a high level of awareness and perceived effectiveness, constituting a substantial treatment gap. We document stigmatized beliefs and misconceptions correlated with the treatment gap. As three-quarters of students incorrectly believe that those in distress perform worse academically and that the majority of students going to therapy are in severe distress, we implement an information intervention to correct these beliefs. We find that it increases students’ sharing of on-campus mental health resources with peers and encourages them to recommend these resources when advising a friend in distress. Interestingly, we find that it lowers respondents’ willingness to pay for private therapy at the end of the intervention. Yet, this effect does not translate into a long-run reduction in self-reported therapy use 6 months after the experiment, with prior therapy users showing increased off-campus take-up.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103646"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145665452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bring a friend: Leveraging financial and peer support to improve women’s reproductive agency in India 带上朋友:利用经济和同伴支持来改善印度妇女的生殖机构
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706
S. Anukriti , Catalina Herrera-Almanza , Mahesh Karra
{"title":"Bring a friend: Leveraging financial and peer support to improve women’s reproductive agency in India","authors":"S. Anukriti ,&nbsp;Catalina Herrera-Almanza ,&nbsp;Mahesh Karra","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Women’s agency in the domain of family planning and reproductive health is a fundamental determinant of their well-being. We experimentally evaluate two approaches aimed at improving women’s reproductive agency in India. We offered treated women subsidized family planning services at a local clinic. Additionally, we enabled a subset of treated women to invite and incentivize others to visit the clinic with them. Although the subsidy encouraged women to seek company to the clinic and increased clinic visits, combining the subsidy with the ability to leverage peer support increased women’s contraceptive use, decreased their likelihood of pregnancy, and was more effective in strengthening reproductive agency and peer engagement. Women facing greater intrahousehold opposition to contraception appeared to benefit more from peer support.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103706"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor market consequences of homicides: A gender perspective from Mexico 杀人案对劳动力市场的影响:来自墨西哥的性别视角
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103718
Lorenzo Aldeco Leo , Matteo F. Ghilardi , Hugo Tuesta
{"title":"Labor market consequences of homicides: A gender perspective from Mexico","authors":"Lorenzo Aldeco Leo ,&nbsp;Matteo F. Ghilardi ,&nbsp;Hugo Tuesta","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates. Men are more likely to exit the labor market, while women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector. This pattern is consistent with an added-worker effect, which we document using household-level evidence. This outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations. Escalating violence also increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, especially among women. Our results highlight that while increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors. This suggests an increase in labor market misallocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do resource rents drive urbanization and structural transformation? A global analysis 资源租金驱动城市化和结构转型吗?全球分析
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103709
Qing Huang , Victoria Wenxin Xie , Wei You
{"title":"Do resource rents drive urbanization and structural transformation? A global analysis","authors":"Qing Huang ,&nbsp;Victoria Wenxin Xie ,&nbsp;Wei You","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103709","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103709","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides the first causal estimate of the impact of mineral price changes on the local population and sectoral employment shares in a global sample of cities. We find that increases in the prices of minerals extracted from nearby mines lead to local employment reallocation away from agriculture and primarily toward low-skilled services, without crowding out manufacturing activities. While the city population grows, there is limited evidence for mining booms driving large-scale urbanization. Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibit exceptionally strong responses to mining booms. These results suggest that resource-led structural transformation could present a new development path for resource-rich developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103709"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Informal fiscal systems in developing countries 发展中国家的非正式财政制度
IF 4.6 1区 经济学
Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103712
Shan Aman-Rana , Clement Minaudier , Sandip Sukhtankar
{"title":"Informal fiscal systems in developing countries","authors":"Shan Aman-Rana ,&nbsp;Clement Minaudier ,&nbsp;Sandip Sukhtankar","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governments in developing countries have low fiscal capacity yet face pressures to provide public goods and services, leading them to rely on various unusual fiscal arrangements. We uncover one such arrangement – informal fiscal systems that rely on local bureaucrats to fund the delivery of public goods and services – cataloging its existence in at least 20 countries. Using survey data and government accounts from Pakistan, we show that public officials are expected to cover funding gaps in public services and they do so, at least partially, through extracted bribes. We develop a model of bureaucratic agency to explore when governments benefit from sustaining such systems and investigate their implications for welfare and bureaucrat selection. Informal fiscal systems are more likely to arise when corruption is widespread but public service delivery is relatively easy to monitor. While they provide an effective second-best solution in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection, they can distort the effective incidence of the tax burden, reduce the incentives of governments to fight corruption, and legitimize bribe-taking. This makes corruption more widespread and thus makes informal systems self-reinforcing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 103712"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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