提高最低工资会破坏就业吗？来自阿根廷回归不连续设计的证据

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558

Nicolás Abbate , Bruno Jiménez

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中，我们通过分析登记就业的行政记录，考察了21世纪初阿根廷8次最低工资上调的影响。利用回归不连续设计，我们比较了受最低工资上涨影响的群体和略超出法定范围的对照组之间的工作离职率。我们的研究结果表明，总体而言，这些最低工资的上涨对离职率没有显著影响。然而，2008年的加薪导致离职率下降了4.8个百分点（19%），这让人们对最低工资的失业效应产生了怀疑。总的来说，这些发现表明，在经济上升期间，最低工资的增加可能对就业破坏几乎没有不利影响。

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Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina

In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction.

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来源期刊

Journal of Development Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.30

自引率

4.00%

发文量

126

审稿时长

72 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Development Economics publishes papers relating to all aspects of economic development - from immediate policy concerns to structural problems of underdevelopment. The emphasis is on quantitative or analytical work, which is relevant as well as intellectually stimulating.