DECISION SCIENCES最新文献

{"title":"Converting a drug from off-label to on-label use: Government subsidies and patient welfare","authors":"Wendy Olsder,&nbsp;Tugce Martagan,&nbsp;Christopher S. Tang","doi":"10.1111/deci.12574","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12574","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most rare diseases have no approved treatments available, and doctors often prescribe existing drugs for “off-label” use in the sense that a drug is prescribed for a medical condition that is different from the original condition approved by regulatory authorities. To develop approved treatments for rare diseases quickly without starting from scratch, governments have introduced different subsidy programs to entice pharmaceutical companies to exert extra efforts to “convert” certain drugs from off-label to “on-label” use. However, the impact of this subsidized conversion strategy on patient welfare remains unclear because both efficacy and price can change once a drug is converted from off-label to on-label use. This paper represents an initial attempt to investigate the effectiveness of different types of government subsidies (e.g., offer subsidies to manufacturers, patients, or both) for improving patient welfare through the drug conversion strategy. We present a three-stage Stackelberg game-theoretic model that captures the interactions among the government, manufacturer, and patients, and determine whether it is optimal to subsidize the manufacturer, patients, or both. We identify requisite (market and subsidy) conditions for a manufacturer to convert a drug from off-label to on-label use. We also determine the optimal extra development effort to convert an off-label drug, and the optimal unit selling price for the on-label drug after conversion. Contrary to the generally held public opinions, our analysis reveals that subsidizing pharmaceutical manufacturers is more effective than subsidizing patients. This result implies that subsidies offered to manufacturers would incentivize higher conversion efforts, and subsequently increase the expected patient welfare. Furthermore, we show that this result continues to hold even when the patients are risk-averse or on-label market size is uncertain. Our numerical analysis on the drugs Aralen, Humira, Revlimid, and Zostex reveals that government subsidies are necessary for enticing conversion from off-label to on-label use.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 6","pages":"579-595"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/deci.12574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138506359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision biases in revenue management revisited: Dynamic decision-making under stationary and nonstationary demand","authors":"Catherine Cleophas,&nbsp;Claudia Schüetze","doi":"10.1111/deci.12573","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12573","url":null,"abstract":"<p>State-of-the-art revenue management systems combine forecasting and optimization algorithms with human decision-making. However, only a few existing contributions consider the behavioral aspects of revenue management. To extend the related research, we examine the impact of nonstationary demand and two dynamic decision tasks. We examine human decision-making strategies and biases by implementing a related experimental design in a laboratory study and comparing participant decisions to systematic heuristics. Our results highlight that participants struggle to accommodate a nonstationary willingness to pay. In that, they exhibit a combination of optimism and loss aversion biases. We further find that participants anchor their decisions on customers' willingness to pay. We draw implications and further research opportunities to behaviorally inform the design of symbiotic analytics systems from these results.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 2","pages":"159-175"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/deci.12573","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48407341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ordering decisions under supply uncertainty and inventory record inaccuracy: An experimental investigation","authors":"Nienke Hofstra,&nbsp;Eirini Spiliotopoulou,&nbsp;Sander de Leeuw","doi":"10.1111/deci.12564","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12564","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Uncertainty on the supply side is a common issue planners face. How do decision-makers incorporate inventory uncertainty when placing orders? We investigate ordering decisions under two forms of uncertainty regarding total inventory available to satisfy demand: supply uncertainty (SU; unreliability in incoming shipments) and inventory record inaccuracy (IRI; internal inefficiencies leading to a discrepancy between physical and recorded inventories). The experimental results reveal behavioral regularities in ordering decisions under both forms of total inventory uncertainty. We find that subjects overstock in settings with low profit margins, and overstocking is more pronounced under IRI than under SU. This overstocking under low profit margins is similar to observed ordering decisions under demand uncertainty. In these settings, subjects show a stronger shortage aversion under IRI (which is internal uncertainty) than under SU (which is external uncertainty). Furthermore, we find that subjects chase past realizations of supply/on-hand inventory, although the effect depends on the uncertainty type. Although SU and IRI are, in practice, often simultaneously present, their causes are different. By providing insight into the relative effect of the types of uncertainty on the quality of inventory replenishment decisions, this study highlights the importance of reducing SU and IRI for products with low profit margins.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 3","pages":"303-318"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/deci.12564","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48053959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inventory control under different forms of uncertainty: Ambiguity and stochastic variability","authors":"Siqi Ma,&nbsp;John Aloysius","doi":"10.1111/deci.12566","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12566","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Inventory decision makers routinely face ambiguity due to the psychological awareness that there is unknown information about salient events that is knowable in principle. Researchers on inventory control behavior in the face of uncertainty have primarily focused on uncertainty due to stochastic variability. However, most decision situations in the naturally occurring world involve both forms of uncertainty—ambiguity and stochastic variability. We report the results of two experiments that partial out the effects of ambiguity and stochastic variability by orthogonal manipulation of these two forms of uncertainty in a newsvendor task. Contrary to established mathematical models of decision making under uncertainty, increased ambiguity results in increased mean absolute percentage error, and a corresponding decrease in profit. We also find a systematic bias toward underordering associated with increased ambiguity, which is over and above the bias associated with increased stochastic variability. We do not see evidence for learning with repeated play, so that the effects of induced ambiguity appear to persist. Finally, based on our findings, we suggest measures that managers can use to ameliorate the effects of ambiguity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 2","pages":"137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44106325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To talk or not?: An analysis of firm-initiated social media communication's impact on firm value preservation during a massive disruption across multiple firms and industries","authors":"Ravi Srinivasan,&nbsp;Ashish Kumar Jha,&nbsp;Nishant Kumar Verma","doi":"10.1111/deci.12563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12563","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the role of firm-initiated social media communication using Twitter in mitigating the negative impact of large-scale disruptions, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, on the shareholder value of firms. We develop our hypotheses using signaling theory and test them using data collected from Twitter and Bloomberg®. Our data set consists of 121,988 firm-generated tweets from 467 S&amp;P 500 firms collected in March 2020 at the time of the lockdown announcement in the United States. We find that frequent and relevant communication reduces latency and increases the observability of messages, preserving a firm's shareholder value. We also find that a positive outlook and extent of interest from stakeholders results in preserving shareholder value. On average, firms lost about 1.08% of their market value per day (about 9.72% during the 9-day period around the lockdown announcement). Our study contributes to the extant literature in three ways: (1) adds to the literature on disruptions–shareholder value by considering large-scale disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic, (2) highlights informational and communication elements of risk management strategy, and (3) adds to the growing body of literature on Twitter by considering firm-generated tweets. The results of our study are of importance to managers as well. For instance, firms tweeted about 57 times per week, and each additional tweet could preserve about $5.85 million of a firm's market valuation, on average. Also, it is not enough that the firms took appropriate actions during a large-scale disruption; they also need to communicate their actions and its implications to their stakeholders effectively. These results can help managers devise their Twitter communication strategy during large-scale disruptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 4","pages":"410-431"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50143164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supply chain coordination with information design","authors":"Justin Jia,&nbsp;Paolo Letizia,&nbsp;Sean P. Willems","doi":"10.1111/deci.12562","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12562","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We consider the coordination of a supplier–retailer supply chain where, in addition to classical contract considerations, a supplier decides the adoption of an information structure (IS) for the supply chain, with a higher-quality IS allowing the supply chain parties to obtain a more accurate demand forecast. Because a wholesale price contract cannot coordinate the supply chain due to misaligned incentives of supply chain parties, we explore what common coordinating contracts in the classical coordination literature can continue coordinating the supply chain with the IS adoption. Interestingly, our analysis appears to reveal the power of simplicity: some simple classical coordinating contracts (e.g., the buy-back and revenue-sharing contracts), though not designed with the IS consideration, still coordinate the supply chain, whereas other more complicated classical contracts (e.g., the quantity flexibility and sales rebate contracts) fail to do so. We derive a general condition for supply chain coordination and show that any contract with a newsvendor-like transfer payment can coordinate the supply chain.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 2","pages":"149-158"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42919589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Driver collusion in ride-hailing platforms","authors":"Manish Tripathy,&nbsp;Jiaru Bai,&nbsp;H. Sebastian (Seb) Heese","doi":"10.1111/deci.12561","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12561","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many on-demand service platforms employ state-dependent pricing strategies to balance supply capacity and customer demand. In the context of ride-hailing platforms, it has been observed that drivers strategically exploit the structure of such pricing policies by coordinating with each other to deactivate some drivers in order to create an artificial shortage of supply capacity and trigger so-called <i>surge pricing</i>. We develop a simple and high-level analytical framework to structurally characterize the drivers of such collusive behavior and the consequences for drivers and the platform. We find that collusive driver behavior is more likely in settings where customers exhibit moderate sensitivity to waiting time. For some of these cases, if customers continue to request service under driver collusion, the platform may benefit from the higher surge prices. For settings where driver collusion is harmful to the platform, we consider two possible mitigation strategies: a <i>bonus payment</i> structure to eliminate the drivers' incentives to collude, which comes at a direct cost to the platform, and a <i>freeze</i> period after deactivating the app during which drivers cannot reactivate. We show that with the appropriate duration, such a freeze period can effectively eliminate driver collusion without any direct costs to the platform.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 4","pages":"434-446"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/deci.12561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48906928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ordering behavior in a supply chain with customers that respond to changes in service level","authors":"Somak Paul,&nbsp;Nathan Craig,&nbsp;Elliot Bendoly","doi":"10.1111/deci.12558","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The presence of service-level-dependent demand has been empirically observed in industry and is well-documented in the literature. How does the implicit contractual existence of such service dependency impact the ordering decisions of upstream suppliers? We conduct three controlled laboratory experiments to study the impact a service-reward mechanism may have on the upstream ordering decisions of those charged with inventory ordering decisions. The multistudy approach provides representations of decision dynamics across a variety of scenarios, from one-shot buys to long-term supply-chain relationships. Our combined empirical results consistently suggest that the service-reward mechanism significantly and systematically elevates order levels and order variability in a manner that increases departure from optimal ordering. This effect is observed even when decision-makers have incentives to maintain a steady ordering pattern with their suppliers. Our findings shed much-needed light on individual ordering responses to, and the associated risks of, service-reward mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 1","pages":"88-103"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/deci.12558","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47304918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the efficiency of last-mile package deliveries using hybrid driver helpers","authors":"Shih-Hao Lu,&nbsp;Yoshinori Suzuki,&nbsp;Toyin Clottey","doi":"10.1111/deci.12559","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An approach widely used by parcel delivery companies to deal with increased shipping volumes, especially during peak seasons, is the use of temporary workers called driver helpers. There are two types of driver helpers: (1) dependent helpers (DH) who work alongside drivers to deliver packages on daily routes, and (2) independent helpers (IDH) who do not travel with the drivers but rather work alone at their assigned locations. The standard practice is for each helper to be used as <i>either</i> a DH <i>or</i> an IDH, but not both. This article introduces the concepts of multitasking to the parcel delivery literature by proposing a new type of helper called the <i>hybrid helper</i>, which allows parcel carriers to utilize each helper as both a DH and an IDH in the same route. The hybrid-helper concept has several advantages over the existing DH or IDH concepts, including (1) reducing the transfer time of IDHs between locations, (2) allowing multiple delivery points to be serviced concurrently, and (3) increasing the daily work time of each helper. We develop a mathematical model that allows a vehicle to visit the same node more than once to enable IDH operations at selected nodes by a DH. Both numerical and field experiments show that our model outperforms other methods. Our results provide implications to practitioners on effective ways of utilizing helpers and suggest the need for future research to consider helpers in a broader context.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"55 3","pages":"281-302"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47466539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alternative information processing mechanisms in hospital supply chains: Impact on cost, quality, and patient satisfaction","authors":"Xiaosong (David) Peng,&nbsp;Barbara Flynn,&nbsp;Arunachalam Narayanan,&nbsp;Raymond Fan","doi":"10.1111/deci.12556","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12556","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hospitals are under tremendous pressure to improve multiple performance dimensions that may be at odds, including cost containment, clinical quality, and patient satisfaction. The need to improve performance on multiple fronts is compounded by sources of uncertainty that include upstream diversity of supply chain (SC) partners, internal diversity of clinical specialties provided, and downstream diversity of patient conditions. Information processing theory (IPT) suggests two strategies for dealing with uncertainty: reduce the amount of information elevated to higher levels for processing and accommodate the amount of information by increasing information processing at other levels. We apply IPT to investigate (i) the relationship between the two information processing strategies in a hospital's SC and its cost containment, clinical quality, and patient satisfaction performance, and (ii) how these relationships may be moderated by diversity in the hospital's SC partners, clinical specialties, and patients, the common sources of uncertainty in hospital SCs. These questions were examined using regression analysis of primary data from acute care hospitals matched with secondary data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, American Hospital Association and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality measuring hospital operating characteristics and performance. The analysis yielded several important findings: (i) while a slack resources strategy (uncertainty reduction) is effective for improving patient satisfaction performance, it is ineffective for reducing cost, (ii) a lateral relations strategy (uncertainty accommodation) is effective in improving all three performance dimensions, and (iii) these relationships are moderated differentially by the three diversity dimensions only for lateral relations. These findings offer important managerial insights about hospitals’ efforts to improve potentially conflicting performance outcomes and suggest interesting opportunities for future research applying IPT to this important topic.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 5","pages":"494-513"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42170375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}