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Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

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The impact of education misreporting on education-specific mortality and educational inequalities in mortality: A scenario-based study. 教育误报对特定教育死亡率和死亡率中的教育不平等的影响：一项基于场景的研究。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-06-04 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2665611
Ana C Gómez-Ugarte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo G Camarda, Fanny Janssen
{"title":"The impact of education misreporting on education-specific mortality and educational inequalities in mortality: A scenario-based study.","authors":"Ana C Gómez-Ugarte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo G Camarda, Fanny Janssen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2665611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2665611","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In many countries, educational inequalities in mortality are estimated using unlinked data sources: death certificates and censuses. However, education misreporting in these sources can introduce biases of unknown direction and magnitude. This study comprehensively quantifies such biases by taking a scenario-based approach, where distortions in education reporting are introduced to evaluate their effect on education-specific mortality rates and educational inequalities in mortality. Our results show that education misreporting can greatly bias mortality estimates, with the direction and magnitude of the bias influenced by the composition of and inequality in the population. We identify two bias patterns in inequality measures, based on whether they account for the ordering of education groups. Additionally, we demonstrate how education overstatement on death certificates can lead to crossovers in education-specific mortality rates and reversals in inequality. This study highlights the need for improved data quality to estimate educational inequalities in mortality accurately.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148158393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Perceptions of infertility: The roles of age, knowledge, and motivated reasoning. 对不孕症的认识：年龄、知识和动机推理的作用。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2687514
Katherine I Tierney, Arthur L Greil, Ann V Bell
{"title":"Perceptions of infertility: The roles of age, knowledge, and motivated reasoning.","authors":"Katherine I Tierney, Arthur L Greil, Ann V Bell","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2687514","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2687514","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Demographic studies of significant reproductive outcomes, such as infertility and unintended pregnancy, often use measures of perceived infertility, but there are varied understandings and conceptualizations of perceived infertility across studies. Some researchers appear to assume that perceived infertility is consistent with medically defined infertility and implicitly use it as a proxy for medically defined infertility, whereas other researchers do not appear to assume that perceived infertility will align with medically defined infertility, instead treating the two constructs as distinct concepts. Using the motivated reasoning perspective as a sensitizing framework, we contend that both understandings of perceived infertility may be valid if the meaning of the measure varies by age. Using the National Survey of Family Growth, we find support for this hypothesis, confirming that both uses of perceived infertility are valid under certain circumstances.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148346891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models. 国内移民预测模型的回顾与评价。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2645544
Charles Siriban, Aude Bernard, Jacques Poot, Tom Wilson, James Raymer, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
{"title":"A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models.","authors":"Charles Siriban, Aude Bernard, Jacques Poot, Tom Wilson, James Raymer, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2645544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2645544","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recognizing that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 21 forecasts from five classes of methods: (1) average of the most recent flows; (2) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (3) machine-learning-based gradient boosting models; (4) multiplicative component and gravity-type models; and (5) average of all forecasts. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in Australia for the five years to mid-2016 and to mid-2023. No single model consistently outperforms the others in terms of bias, accuracy, and empirical coverage. Simple models perform as well or better than complex models. ARIMA models and their Bayesian equivalent perform well in both periods. Including control variables is no panacea, because their relationship with migration is flow and period specific. Similarly, globally trained machine learning models are not clear-cut alternatives, particularly when flow sizes vary widely. In contrast, the multiplicative component model suits contexts where the spatial structure of migration is stable, suggesting that internal migration forecasting requires context-specific approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148018191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social parenting and childlessness in Norway: Associations by sex and economic uncertainty. 挪威的社会养育和无子女：性别和经济不确定性的关联。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2649772
Axel Peter Kristensen, Trude Lappegård
{"title":"Social parenting and childlessness in Norway: Associations by sex and economic uncertainty.","authors":"Axel Peter Kristensen, Trude Lappegård","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2649772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2649772","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study examines whether social parenting-living with a child's biological parent but not being biologically related to the child-is linked to remaining childless among men and women in Norway. It offers a novel overview of the complexity of partnership histories that include social parenting and whether different types of such histories are associated with childlessness. Using Norwegian register data for the 1980 birth cohort, we reconstruct annual partnership histories from ages 25 to 41 and identify five trajectory clusters with sequence analysis. We then estimate linear probability models of being childless at age 42 and assess differences by sex and economic uncertainty, as measured by unstable employment and insecure income history. Individuals in social-parenting clusters experience a higher probability of childlessness, especially those with complex, less stable histories and later partnership entry. Men in social-parenting clusters show higher childlessness than comparable women, and economic insecurity further elevates childlessness, particularly among men.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148036388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The generational health drift: A systematic review of evidence from the British birth cohort studies. 代际健康漂移：对英国出生队列研究证据的系统回顾。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2652038
Laura Gimeno, Darío Moreno-Agostino, Martin Danka, Yiling Guo, Alice Goisis, Jennifer B Dowd, George B Ploubidis
{"title":"The generational health drift: A systematic review of evidence from the British birth cohort studies.","authors":"Laura Gimeno, Darío Moreno-Agostino, Martin Danka, Yiling Guo, Alice Goisis, Jennifer B Dowd, George B Ploubidis","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2652038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2652038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Life expectancy in the UK improved dramatically during the twentieth century. Whether more recent generations are also living longer in good health has serious implications for healthcare systems and the economy. Drawing on evidence from British birth cohort studies following people born between 1946 and 2000-02, we reviewed how physical and mental health have changed across post-war generations. We found little evidence for improving health across successive cohorts when compared at the same age. For several outcomes-particularly obesity, mental ill health, and diabetes-prevalence of poor health was higher in more recent generations, a pattern we term 'generational health drift'. There was little suggestion of improvements in health for cohorts born since 1946. More research is needed to understand the drivers of this trend, which has itself probably been shaped by changing exposure to preventable social and environmental risk factors experienced across the life course.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147989511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in intergenerational transmission of age at first birth in China, 1941-90 cohorts. 中国第一胎年龄代际传递的变化，1941- 1990年。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-05-11 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2649774
Yajie Xiong
{"title":"Changes in intergenerational transmission of age at first birth in China, 1941-90 cohorts.","authors":"Yajie Xiong","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2649774","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2649774","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The intergenerational transmission of age at first birth is important for demographic dynamics and the reproduction of social inequality, yet it remains underexplored in China's rapidly transitioning society. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, I examine cohort trends in intergenerational transmission of age at first birth for women born between 1941 and 1990. Results indicate that the intergenerational association has strengthened substantially over time, suggesting that family background is playing an increasingly important role in determining women's first-birth timing in the Post-Reform Era. Additionally, there is a non-linear, inverted-U-shaped pattern in the most recent cohorts (born during the 1970s and 1980s). Delays in first birth have been greatest for women whose parents had their first child at age 25-29, whereas those whose parents first gave birth after age 30 or before age 20 tend to enter parenthood earlier than this middle group.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147870111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Invisible emigrants: A research note on over-coverage bias from unrecorded migrant departures in socio-demographic rates and summary measures. 看不见的移民：一份关于未记录的移民离境在社会人口比率和总结措施中的过度覆盖偏见的研究说明。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-23 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2651274
Eleonora Mussino, Bruno Santos, Mimmi Lounela, Sven Drefahl
{"title":"Invisible emigrants: A research note on over-coverage bias from unrecorded migrant departures in socio-demographic rates and summary measures.","authors":"Eleonora Mussino, Bruno Santos, Mimmi Lounela, Sven Drefahl","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2651274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2651274","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This research examines the impact of population over-coverage on socio-demographic indicators for international migrants in Sweden. Over-coverage occurs when emigrants or deceased individuals remain in population registers, leading to overestimation of the resident population. This particularly affects migrants due to the increasing prevalence of return, onward, and circular migration. As register-based data collection becomes prevalent, addressing over-coverage bias is critical. Using multiple systems estimation models, we adjust for over-coverage in Swedish population registers and calculate accurate demographic and socio-economic rates. We use administrative data for 2003-16 to compute age-specific fertility rates, mortality rates, employment/unemployment rates, Total Fertility Rates, and life expectancy for migrants. Results demonstrate that over-coverage substantially affects demographic and economic indicators, particularly at typical migration ages, with mortality rates showing the largest bias at older ages. Findings highlight the importance of addressing over-coverage to improve the reliability of socio-demographic insights from register-based population systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health in early adulthood and fertility: A study based on the 1958 British cohort. 成年早期健康与生育：一项基于1958年英国队列的研究。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2531819
Eleonora Trappolini, Alyce Raybould, Giammarco Alderotti
{"title":"Health in early adulthood and fertility: A study based on the 1958 British cohort.","authors":"Eleonora Trappolini, Alyce Raybould, Giammarco Alderotti","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2531819","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2531819","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Health is rarely used as an explanatory variable in fertility studies in high-income contexts, unlike in low-income settings. Using the 1958 National Child Development Study, we explore how self-rated health (SRH) and body mass index (BMI) at age 23 relate to achievement of fertility goals by age 46. We find that worse SRH and a BMI outside the healthy range at age 23 are strongly associated with lower fertility and underachieving fertility goals. While poor SRH is associated with lower fertility mostly among men, BMI outside the healthy range at 23 is more significant for women. Additional analyses indicate that employment and union history partly mediate the effect of health on fertility, but health retains a substantive direct effect. Our findings suggest that health in early adulthood is an important determinant, whether direct or indirect, of family life-course trajectories. This paper endorses the inclusion of health as an explanatory variable in studies of fertility in high-income contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"25-42"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144875954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-term fertility trends by birth order in Britain: Comparison between England & Wales and Scotland. 英国按出生顺序划分的长期生育率趋势：英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰的比较。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2491354
Hill Kulu, Bernice Kuang, Sarah Christison, Ann Berrington
{"title":"Long-term fertility trends by birth order in Britain: Comparison between England & Wales and Scotland.","authors":"Hill Kulu, Bernice Kuang, Sarah Christison, Ann Berrington","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2491354","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2491354","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study uses census-linked administrative data to investigate childbearing trends by birth order in Britain over three decades. This is the first study to investigate longer-term changes in fertility dynamics in Britain by birth order and to compare parity-specific fertility by country. First-birth rates declined in the 1990s, slightly increased in the first decade of this century, and decreased thereafter, with changes in timing of parenthood responsible for these changes. Second- and third-birth rates declined in the 1990s but remained relatively stable in the early twenty-first century. Birth intervals remained unchanged, meaning that changes in quantum are responsible for trends in higher-order birth rates. Time trends are similar in England & Wales and Scotland but with significantly lower second- and third-birth rates in Scotland. Changes in population composition by education and ethnicity explain little of the aggregate fertility trends or between-country differences. Both countries have seen rapid declines in first-birth rates, especially among low-educated women.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-23"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144276316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends at mid-to-older ages in Italy, 2004-19. 2004-19年意大利中老年人无残疾预期寿命趋势的多州分析和分解。
IF 2.2 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2475435
Margherita Moretti, Tim Riffe, Angelo Lorenti
{"title":"Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends at mid-to-older ages in Italy, 2004-19.","authors":"Margherita Moretti, Tim Riffe, Angelo Lorenti","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2475435","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2475435","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Italy has witnessed increases in life expectancy and population ageing, raising concerns about their impact on population health. Disability status greatly affects the participation of mid-to-older-aged adults in various aspects of life. We examine the long-term trend in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in Italy, over three different periods between 2004 and 2019, and explore disability dynamics (onset and recovery) and changes in disability-specific mortality. We use IT-SILC longitudinal data to estimate transition probabilities and DFLE between ages 50 and 79 and decompose DFLE changes in terms of these transitions. Overall, DFLE has improved over recent decades but not always as favourably as life expectancy. The trends indicate compression of disability between ages 50 and 79 in the most recent years. Changes in disability transitions have had the greatest influence, whereas disability-specific mortality has had much less impact on DFLE changes. The greatest contributions have come from increases in the probability of recovery from disability.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"123-138"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143658824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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