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Trend breaks in life expectancy in the United States over 120 years and potential sources of future gains. 美国人120岁以上预期寿命的趋势和未来收益的潜在来源。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2546993
Jiaxin Shi, Jason M Fletcher
{"title":"Trend breaks in life expectancy in the United States over 120 years and potential sources of future gains.","authors":"Jiaxin Shi, Jason M Fletcher","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2546993","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2546993","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Research indicates a significant slowdown in life expectancy growth in the United States (US) post 2010, marking a departure from the consistent progress in longevity throughout the twentieth century. We extend this understanding, tracing the deceleration of US life expectancy back to the 1950s, after which average decadal change dropped from 3.80 to 1.61 years. Surprisingly, these mid-twentieth-century shifts were consistent across race and sex in the US and also in other high-income countries. Using a simple approach of quantifying potential life expectancy gains by eliminating mortality at specific ages, we find that the potential gains in life expectancy from reducing midlife mortality have been larger in the US than in other countries since 1900. The findings suggest that US life expectancy is unlikely to progress at the high speed observed between 1900 and the 1950s, with future advancements hinging on the reduction of old-age mortality, particularly from cardiovascular diseases and mental and nervous system diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"335-352"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144993890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and men's childlessness in Finland. 男人太多了？芬兰地方人口失衡与男性无子女。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2534876
Henrik-Alexander Schubert, Christian Dudel
{"title":"Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and men's childlessness in Finland.","authors":"Henrik-Alexander Schubert, Christian Dudel","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2534876","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2534876","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Men's childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland, 29 per cent of all men aged 45 were childless in 2022. The cause of these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether sex imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of men's childlessness. Partner markets are imbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to women or vice versa. The data generally show an increasingly imbalanced partner market situation for men over time but with considerable regional heterogeneity. Individual-level regression results for men born in 1968-75 (<i>N</i>  =  194,080) indicate an increased probability of childlessness at age 45 after extended exposure to imbalanced partner markets over the life course. This association is particularly strong for low-income men. These findings are robust across indicators and specifications. Overall, regional context seems to play a crucial role in the risk of childlessness.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"281-301"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144733988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cohort fertility differences between men and women in a developed population: Evidence from Spain. 发达人群中男性和女性的队列生育差异：来自西班牙的证据。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2573930
Miguel Requena, David S Reher
{"title":"Cohort fertility differences between men and women in a developed population: Evidence from Spain.","authors":"Miguel Requena, David S Reher","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2573930","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2573930","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite its significance, men's fertility has been largely overlooked in demographic research. This study seeks to address this gap by conducting a systematic comparative analysis of men's and women's fertility using data from the Spanish ECEPOV-2021 survey, a large-scale data set (<i>N</i>  =  424,493) from the Spanish national statistical office. Findings indicate that women generally exhibit slightly higher completed cohort fertility rates than men, with exceptions among remarried, college-educated, and immigrant men, who show higher fertility than their female counterparts. Childlessness emerges as a key factor underlying fertility differentials between the sexes, accounting for nearly half of the observed difference. After using matching techniques to control for compositional differences, the study concludes that adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors significantly reduces, although does not entirely eliminate, the fertility differential. Residual differences may stem from measurement errors, selection biases, or unmeasured variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"239-256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145453718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks. 生育，出生，再生产：连接正式的人口结构框架。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2550770
Annette Baudisch, Antonino Polizzi
{"title":"Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks.","authors":"Annette Baudisch, Antonino Polizzi","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2550770","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2550770","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The conventional framework of fertility research conceptualizes childbirth from the mother's perspective. From her perspective, birth is an uncertain and potentially recurring event. In contrast, the <i>Born once, die once</i> (B1D1) framework conceptualizes birth as an event experienced by the child. From that perspective, birth is certain and, like death, occurs only once. As an advantage over the conventional approach, the new perspective allows for the use of density, survival, and hazard functions to study age patterns of birth at the macro level, using birth counts for all parities by maternal age. Here, we reformulate the B1D1 framework using fertility-rate notation. This allows us to extend the conventional fertility framework by analogous density, survival, and hazard functions. These functions can shed new light on differences in age patterns of fertility across populations and advance conventional fertility research, including by capturing fertility and mortality age patterns with common concepts and measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"199-213"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145213780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The risk of being Giovanni or Maria: Naming practices and child mortality during the demographic transition. 乔瓦尼或玛丽亚的风险：人口转型期间的命名习惯和儿童死亡率。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-16 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2608593
Alessandra Minello, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna
{"title":"The risk of being Giovanni or Maria: Naming practices and child mortality during the demographic transition.","authors":"Alessandra Minello, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2608593","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2608593","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the past, the choice of children's names was closely linked to life trajectories. This paper investigates the connection between children's names and child mortality during the demographic transition. Analysing data from the Veneto region (Northern Italy) and the Venetian parish of San Marco between 1816 and 1869, we find that traditional names are associated with higher neonatal mortality, particularly among girls. In contrast, children with unconventional names-those not named after grandparents or godparents or given the most frequent traditional names-face a lower risk of dying within the first month of life. Our findings underscore the importance of names in historical demography as predictors of demographic trajectories. Moreover, they suggest that naming practices may mirror varying levels of parental attention or a shift towards more modern concepts of childcare.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"367-387"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146203347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The population structure of the Amish, a rapidly growing ethnic religion in North America. 阿米什人的人口结构，一个在北美迅速发展的民族宗教。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2592576
Cory Anderson, Stephanie Thiehoff
{"title":"The population structure of the Amish, a rapidly growing ethnic religion in North America.","authors":"Cory Anderson, Stephanie Thiehoff","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2592576","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2592576","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As Western populations face projected decline, understanding the demographics of high-fertility subpopulations becomes increasingly important. The Amish represent one rapidly growing North American subgroup, yet existing demographic studies are dated and narrowly focused. Here, we use a new population database of >50,000 households-the vast majority of Amish-to offer an up-to-date population-wide analysis that shows high fertility and low mortality and attrition. Specifically, women's median age at marriage is 20.9, and 87.1 per cent marry by age 50; premarital conceptions are low (4.30 per cent of first births); spacing between marriage and first birth is short (mean 17.2 months); the total fertility rate is 6.1; infant mortality is 5.9; life expectancy at birth is 81.16 years; attrition is low (84.46 per cent retention for those aged 40+); and in-conversion is very low (154 individuals across nearly a century). These definitive population-wide figures open the way for testing predictors of population change and charting how growing subpopulations are shaping regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"257-280"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12909094/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145783432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trends in fertility preferences among Italian young adults. 意大利年轻人的生育偏好趋势。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2542833
Francesca Luppi, Daniela Bellani, Alessandro Rosina
{"title":"Trends in fertility preferences among Italian young adults.","authors":"Francesca Luppi, Daniela Bellani, Alessandro Rosina","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2542833","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2542833","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In examining Italy's low fertility, recent studies have emphasized the role played by socio-economic factors, uncertainty, and the welfare state. Meanwhile, emerging research is highlighting a potential downward revision of fertility ideals among more recent generations. Our study analyses trends in fertility desires and expectations among young adults in Italy from 2012 to 2022. Findings reveal growing tendencies to: (1) not desire children, among more recent cohorts; and (2) to not expect to have children during the lifetime, in more recent years. Specifically, this indicates a nuanced demographic gradient: we observe a decline in fertility desires and expectations with age and a significant increase in the likelihood of not desiring children for women across birth cohorts. Our study highlights the need for robust, harmonized cross-national surveys to better understand new fertility ideals across different socio-demographic contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"303-320"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145015222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Childlessness trends at different ages by educational attainment for men and women in Finland: A research note. 芬兰男女受教育程度不同年龄段的无子女趋势：一份研究报告。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2592578
Marika Jalovaara, Anneli Miettinen
{"title":"Childlessness trends at different ages by educational attainment for men and women in Finland: A research note.","authors":"Marika Jalovaara, Anneli Miettinen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2592578","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2592578","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Research on childlessness by educational attainment typically focuses on lifetime childlessness at age 40 or 45, with less known about younger ages. This study examines trends in childlessness by age and education for men and women in Finland from 1987 to 2022, using total population register data. We focus on childlessness at ages 30, 35, 40, and 45. The results show that childlessness has increased at most ages, with acceleration in the past decade. At ages 40 and 45, the association between education and childlessness is negative for men-men with lower education are more often childless-while among women, the association has reversed from positive to negative in recent years. At age 30, childlessness is higher among the highly educated, reflecting later entry into parenthood. At age 35, childlessness has risen across all groups, notably including tertiary-educated men and women. These trends suggest that the increase in lifetime childlessness in Finland is likely to continue and become more widespread.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"405-414"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145783425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in numerators and denominators of death rates and their contributions to changes in life expectancy. 死亡率分子和分母的变化及其对预期寿命变化的贡献。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2531823
Wen Su, Mike Hollingshaus, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
{"title":"Changes in numerators and denominators of death rates and their contributions to changes in life expectancy.","authors":"Wen Su, Mike Hollingshaus, Vladimir Canudas-Romo","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2531823","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2531823","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Demographers use ratios, proportions, and rates-all calculated as counts in numerators divided by counts in denominators-as key research inputs. For age-specific death rates, the numerator is observed deaths and the denominator is person-years lived. Life expectancy summarizes those rates into one measure, and its changes convey messages of changing mortality across time. We examine the contributions from the two components of life expectancy change: the population growth rate (relative changes in person-years in the denominator) and growth rate of deaths (relative changes in number of deaths in the numerator). We name this the numerator-denominator decomposition method. Applying the method to high-longevity countries during 2009-19 shows increases in life expectancy driven by high population growth at older ages without comparable increases in deaths. The United States experienced little life expectancy increase, and subnational comparisons show stark differences between urban and rural areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"353-366"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144733987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconstructing birth histories using linked household data and the 1911 Census fertility survey. 利用关联家庭数据和1911年人口普查生育调查重建出生历史。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学
Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2026-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2026.2681475
Emma Diduch
{"title":"Reconstructing birth histories using linked household data and the 1911 Census fertility survey.","authors":"Emma Diduch","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2681475","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2026.2681475","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Full birth histories that enable analysis of mothers' ages at birth and birth intervals by parity are rare in historical data. Partial birth histories can be obtained from retrospective fertility surveys and census data that record the numbers of children ever born, children deceased, and ages of surviving co-resident children. In a 1988 article published in Population Studies, Luther and Cho proposed a method for reconstructing full birth histories by probabilistically imputing the ages of deceased and non-co-resident children, and in a 2020 article in Historical Methods, Hacker extended this method to historical census data from the United States. In this paper I further adapt the reconstruction method using a sample from the 1911 Census of England and Wales and census records linked from 1881 onwards; this reduces the number of missing observations in the partial birth histories. Birth histories based on linked data particularly improve estimates of duration-specific marital fertility for women who married and had children more than 15 years before the survey date.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148346876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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