The fertility desires-intentions gap in the United States.

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY

Population Studies-A Journal of Demography Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI:10.1080/00324728.2025.2501315

Luca Badolato

{"title":"The fertility desires-intentions gap in the United States.","authors":"Luca Badolato","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2025.2501315","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires-intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) desire and intend; (2) desire but not intend; (3) not desire but intend; or (4) not desire or intend to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires-intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2025.2501315","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires-intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) desire and intend; (2) desire but not intend; (3) not desire but intend; or (4) not desire or intend to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires-intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.

查看原文本刊更多论文

美国生育意愿与生育意愿的差距。

生育目标指标是至关重要的人口统计工具，但在实证研究中，不同结构的可用性和误导性的语言是混淆的根源，生育愿望和意图经常互换使用。生育欲望反映了一种内在的想要孩子的愿望，而生育意图则反映了一种实际的计划。我通过考虑个体可能：(1)欲望和意图；（二）有愿望而无意图；（三）不是愿望而是意图；或者(4)不希望或不打算生（更多）孩子。我利用美国具有全国代表性的数据，从生命历程和性别的角度出发，估计了男性和女性的总体水平、特定年龄和特定性别指标，并使用回归模型来确定生育愿望-意图差距的预测因素。这些分析澄清了不同测量方法所产生的混乱，提供了关于最近生育率下降的见解，并揭示了在衡量生育目标时考虑（或不考虑）不育状况的后果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Population Studies-A Journal of Demography DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： For over half a century, Population Studies has reported significant advances in methods of demographic analysis, conceptual and mathematical theories of demographic dynamics and behaviour, and the use of these theories and methods to extend scientific knowledge and to inform policy and practice. The Journal"s coverage of this field is comprehensive: applications in developed and developing countries; historical and contemporary studies; quantitative and qualitative studies; analytical essays and reviews. The subjects of papers range from classical concerns, such as the determinants and consequences of population change, to such topics as family demography and evolutionary and genetic influences on demographic behaviour.