Long-term fertility trends by birth order in Britain: Comparison between England & Wales and Scotland.

Abstract

This study uses census-linked administrative data to investigate childbearing trends by birth order in Britain over three decades. This is the first study to investigate longer-term changes in fertility dynamics in Britain by birth order and to compare parity-specific fertility by country. First-birth rates declined in the 1990s, slightly increased in the first decade of this century, and decreased thereafter, with changes in timing of parenthood responsible for these changes. Second- and third-birth rates declined in the 1990s but remained relatively stable in the early twenty-first century. Birth intervals remained unchanged, meaning that changes in quantum are responsible for trends in higher-order birth rates. Time trends are similar in England & Wales and Scotland but with significantly lower second- and third-birth rates in Scotland. Changes in population composition by education and ethnicity explain little of the aggregate fertility trends or between-country differences. Both countries have seen rapid declines in first-birth rates, especially among low-educated women.