Population and Environment最新文献

{"title":"Environmental change, aquatic conditions, and household food security: Evidence from Lake Malawi.","authors":"Heather Randell, Clark Gray, Monica Grant, Galina Shinkareva, Wondwosen M Seyoum, Catherine O'Reilly","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00476-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00476-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Food insecurity is a key barrier to improving global health and achieving sustainable development. Nearly 30% of the world's population experiences moderate or severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have risen in recent years. Environmental change is a major factor driving this increase, as warming air and water temperatures, extreme weather, and land use change can threaten food production. We argue that an important, yet underexplored, pathway between environmental change and food insecurity is through aquatic conditions and fisheries. We focus on Malawi, which is heavily dependent on fish consumption and experiences high rates of food insecurity. By linking nationally representative household survey data from 2010 through 2020 to remotely-sensed chlorophyll and lake surface temperature data from Lake Malawi, we examine the relationship between changing aquatic conditions and food security among households located near the lakeshore. We find that warmer-than-average lake temperatures are negatively associated with multiple food security indicators including Food Consumption Score, self-reported adequacy of food consumption, consumption of dried fish, and consumption of animal protein during four of more days in the prior week. These findings provide insight into the linkages between environmental change, aquatic conditions, and population health, and can inform policies to reduce food insecurity, particularly among fisheries-dependent communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11884660/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143587685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social differences in cause-specific infant mortality at the dawn of the demographic transition: New insights from German church records.","authors":"Michael Mühlichen, Gabriele Doblhammer","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00483-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00483-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Little is known about social gradients in cause-specific infant mortality in the nineteenth century. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to explore this connection for the time prior to the epidemiologic and demographic transitions. We used the church records of Rostock, an important port city on the Baltic coast in northern Germany, and prepared and merged the baptismal and burial registers of its largest parish (St. Jakobi) for the periods 1815-1836 and 1859-1882. Based on individual-level data (<i>N</i> = 16,880), we classified the fathers' occupations into three social classes and estimated cause-specific infant mortality risks for these groups using event history analysis. We found a clear social gradient in neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. This gradient was driven by waterborne diseases and convulsions, suggesting severe nutritional and sanitation deficits among the lower social classes even before the city began to struggle with worsening living environments following industrialisation and population growth in the second half of the nineteenth century. Our results also suggest that deteriorating environmental conditions affect all parts of the population, leading to an increase of infant mortality rates in all social classes. Improvements in nutritional and sanitary conditions may thus reduce the risk of infant death from infectious diseases.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00483-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":"15"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11906567/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143651282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retrenchment under climate-driven risks in subsistence farming communities.","authors":"Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Dirgha Ghimire, Michael Oppenheimer, Rajendra Ghimire, Dil Ck","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Increasing climate risks introduce new sources of uncertainty to smallholder farmers' livelihood decisions. While farmers in different development contexts tend to accurately perceive long-term climatic trends, livelihood diversification as a climate resilience strategy has generally lagged behind awareness of climate risks. In this study, we investigate potential mechanisms behind this lagged response through a survey of 500 farming households in Nepal's Chitwan Valley, a region that is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture and highly exposed to several climate-driven hazards. Specifically, we employ a suite of cross-sectional and time series econometric techniques to analyze how farmers' information sources, social capital, and previous exposure to climate hazards shape climate risk perceptions and livelihood decisions. We find that climate-driven risks are highly salient to household perceptions of farming risks; however, they also drive higher perceived risks of common livelihood diversification strategies, including rural-urban migration and off-farm employment. Further, while farming households generally maintain diversified income portfolios, exposure to droughts and/or floods leads to persistent increases in the reliance on farming income, which we term a \"retrenchment\" response. We find evidence for both financial and psychological mechanisms behind this response, which may exacerbate environmentally driven poverty traps. Our results indicate that efforts to build farmers' resilience to climate risks should especially account for perceived risks of livelihood alternatives, financial constraints, and loss-averse behavior in response to income shocks.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 2","pages":"22"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12092560/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144128869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intergenerational grounding of women's environmental non-migration.","authors":"Bishawjit Mallick, Julia van den Berg","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00475-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00475-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study examines the impact of intergenerational learning and intellectual capital on women's voluntary decisions to remain in place despite environmental risks. By investigating how women experience the decision to stay through intergenerational knowledge transfer, we analyze the adaptability of communities facing climate-driven livelihood challenges and the intricate socio-ecological factors that tie individuals to their homes. Through life-story interviews with 70 women from 25 households in five environmental hazard-prone sites in Bangladesh, the study reveals nuanced patterns of traditional gender roles that both support and limit women's autonomy in making mobility choices. Although mobility decisions vary across site and scale, systemic issues such as arranged child marriage, financial instability, (traditional) home-bound duties, male authority over mobility decisions, and gendered expectations consistently emerged as barriers to women's (non-)migration, even when they aspired to leave. Thus, this research offers insights into gendered (non-)migration and its intergenerationality, which is inevitable in developing sustainable adaptation pathways.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00475-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":"7"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11928378/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143694019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What drives parents' use of air quality indexes during wildfire smoke events: predictors of index knowledge, frequent checking, and following health guidance.","authors":"Catherine E Slavik, Daniel A Chapman, Stephanie E Cleland, Ellen Peters","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Wildfire smoke poses a serious and growing health threat to communities in the United States (US), Canada, and beyond. Some populations-including children-are especially susceptible. Air Quality Indexes (AQIs) can inform parents about local air quality during smoke events and offer guidance on actions that protect children. In July-August 2023, parents from Oregon, Washington, California, and British Columbia (BC) (<i>n</i> = 2100) participated in an online cross-sectional study. Binary and ordinal logistic regression models were used to examine geographic, demographic, and psychosocial predictors of three dependent variables: knowledge of where to check AQI information, frequent checking of AQI information during wildfire seasons, and adherence to AQI health messages around reducing/rescheduling outdoor physical activity. Smoke-exposure analysis indicated widespread potential exposures to wildfire smoke across all four jurisdictions. Nonetheless, parents in BC, on average, were less likely to report knowing where to check AQI information, checked less frequently, and were less likely to adhere to AQI guidance than parents in the three US states. Adherence to AQI health messages did not differ by jurisdiction in the presence of other covariates, suggesting parents are equally likely to follow AQI guidance when they know where to find it and check it. Other consistent predictors of the three dependent variables included experience with prior smoke-related health impacts, smoke risk perceptions, and use of internet/mobile applications as sources of smoke information. These findings indicate that increased promotion of AQIs may benefit parents in some regions during wildfires. Future evaluations of smoke education initiatives could help health agencies share effective practices across jurisdictions and target interventions to increase AQI adoption.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 2","pages":"20"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11996998/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144051085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh.","authors":"Jan Freihardt","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Various studies predict large migration flows due to climatic and other environmental changes, yet the ex post empirical evidence for such migration is inconclusive. To examine the causal link between environmental changes and migration for a population residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily affected by floods and riverbank erosion, I relate the respondents' self-reported affectedness by environmental changes, their migration aspirations, and their capability to move to their migration likelihood. The analysis relies on a unique quasi-experimental research design based on original survey panel data of 1604 household heads. I find that erosion significantly and substantively increases the likelihood to migrate, leading to more than a doubling of the migration likelihood compared to the unaffected control group. Flooding has a significant effect only if it causes severe and irreversible impacts. Moreover, erosion affectedness increases the likelihood of moving permanently, with the whole household, and to a rural location. Individual, temporary moves to urban locations, by contrast, are primarily driven by low socio-economic status. Those who move with the whole household migrate mostly less than five kilometers. These findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the complex environment-migration nexus.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":"6"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11754328/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143048262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme events, educational aspirations, and long-term outcomes","authors":"René Iwo, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri, Duncan Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00461-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00461-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was an extremely destructive event in Aceh, Indonesia, killing over 160,000 people and destroying infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods over miles of coastline. In its immediate aftermath, affected populations faced a daunting array of challenges. At the population level, questions of how the disaster affected children’s and parents’ aspirations for education and whether it permanently disrupted schooling progression are critical in understanding how shocks affect human capital in the short and long term. We use longitudinal data from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) to examine how disaster exposure affects educational aspirations and eventual attainment. We find that damage to one’s community depresses aspirations in the short term but that this weakens with time. With respect to educational attainment 15 years after the event, children’s aspirations, parents’ education, and family socioeconomic status are more important determinants of whether children complete high school and go on to tertiary schooling than is disaster exposure. While these results likely reflect, at least in part, the successful post-tsunami reconstruction program, they also establish enormous resilience among survivors who bore the brunt of the tsunami.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141869460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate migration and well-being: a study on ex-pastoralists in northern Kenya","authors":"Robbin Jan van Duijne, Dinah Ogara, Rachel Keeton, Diana Reckien","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00456-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00456-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the impacts of climate change intensify globally, scholars and policymakers are increasingly interested in determining the factors that lead to the success or failure of climate adaptation strategies. This paper investigates the well-being outcomes of ex-pastoralists in northern Kenya who have migrated to towns in response to severe droughts. Focusing on Marsabit Town, the study employs a comparative design with primary survey data to analyze the well-being outcomes resulting from migration as an adaptation strategy. We contrast two heterogeneous groups of former pastoralists: a “settled group” that was already residing in Marsabit Town before ending their pastoral activities and a “migrant group” that relocated to Marsabit Town at the time of abandoning pastoralism. Our analysis reveals significant differences in well-being outcomes between these groups, with the migrant group often experiencing deterioration in their well-being levels. Key predictors of poorer well-being outcomes include the loss of all livestock, informal housing, and failure to transition into agricultural work, which often results in dependence on casual labor. Additionally, many migrants continue to experience poor subjective well-being—referring to their personal satisfaction with the quality of life—years after their livelihood transition. These insights offer a nuanced understanding of the well-being outcomes of migration-as-adaptation among heterogeneous groups of ex-pastoralists and underscore the need for customized livelihood support strategies for the most at-risk populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Residential energy consumption by Japan’s super-aging society: visioning a more sustainable future up to 2040","authors":"Nozomu Inoue, Shigeru Matsumoto, Kozo Mayumi","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Japan is a leading exemplar of rapidly aging countries, holding very low fertility rate. Under such circumstances, the present paper examines two important aspects of residential energy consumption patterns of Japan up to the year 2040: (i) presenting two future scenarios of residential energy consumption and (ii) reexamining the effectiveness of traditional strategy to reduce energy consumption mainly through energy efficiency improvement. Before presenting the two main topics of the paper, three important factors are discussed: (i) the population aging effect; (ii) the generation gap in energy use patterns; and (iii) the decline in family size. These factors influence the relationship between the aging population and residential energy consumption. Then, a brief explanation is given for survey data sources, six household types in 11 regions of Japan, and four types of energy carriers. The first scenario assumes that residential energy consumption pattern of each household type remains unchanged from the current situation and that the population projection holds true. The total residential energy consumption will decrease by only 6% between 2020 and 2040. Yet, per capita residential energy consumption will increase despite the fact that the population size will decrease by 10.6%. The second scenario assumes that slightly higher energy efficiency improvements than in the past 15 years will continue to reduce energy consumption from 2020 to 2040. The simulation result of this optimistic scenario also suggests that conventional energy conservation strategies alone are far from sufficient to reduce residential energy consumption per capita. Thus, an alternative strategy to overcome the spell of Jevons’ paradox is urgently required. Frugality combined with lifestyle and behavior change should be seriously attempted to achieve sustainable future for societies including aging countries like Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140888260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating excess migration associated with tropical storms in the USA 1990–2010","authors":"Eugenio Paglino","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical storms are among the most devastating natural disasters in the USA. Climate change is projected to make them even more destructive, and the number of people and properties at risk has steadily increased over the past several decades. Migration is often seen by scholars as an adaptation strategy to reduce exposure to future natural disasters. However, studies of migration after tropical storms have led to inconsistent results and have not analyzed post-storm migration from the viewpoint of exposure to future events. This paper adopts an innovative approach to estimate “excess migration” associated with tropical storms using Bayesian hierarchical models, and decomposes migration by risk of exposure to natural disasters of the origin and destination to understand whether migrants move to safer areas or rather riskier ones. Findings indicate that excess migration after tropical storms is rare and generally fails to reduce the number of people at risk of experiencing future natural disasters. Only the most destructive tropical storms are associated with significant excess migration. Finally, findings further suggest that neither the amount of post-disaster assistance nor the socio-demographic characteristics of the affected counties are strongly associated with excess migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140626919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}