Population and Environment最新文献

{"title":"What drives parents' use of air quality indexes during wildfire smoke events: predictors of index knowledge, frequent checking, and following health guidance.","authors":"Catherine E Slavik, Daniel A Chapman, Stephanie E Cleland, Ellen Peters","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Wildfire smoke poses a serious and growing health threat to communities in the United States (US), Canada, and beyond. Some populations-including children-are especially susceptible. Air Quality Indexes (AQIs) can inform parents about local air quality during smoke events and offer guidance on actions that protect children. In July-August 2023, parents from Oregon, Washington, California, and British Columbia (BC) (<i>n</i> = 2100) participated in an online cross-sectional study. Binary and ordinal logistic regression models were used to examine geographic, demographic, and psychosocial predictors of three dependent variables: knowledge of where to check AQI information, frequent checking of AQI information during wildfire seasons, and adherence to AQI health messages around reducing/rescheduling outdoor physical activity. Smoke-exposure analysis indicated widespread potential exposures to wildfire smoke across all four jurisdictions. Nonetheless, parents in BC, on average, were less likely to report knowing where to check AQI information, checked less frequently, and were less likely to adhere to AQI guidance than parents in the three US states. Adherence to AQI health messages did not differ by jurisdiction in the presence of other covariates, suggesting parents are equally likely to follow AQI guidance when they know where to find it and check it. Other consistent predictors of the three dependent variables included experience with prior smoke-related health impacts, smoke risk perceptions, and use of internet/mobile applications as sources of smoke information. These findings indicate that increased promotion of AQIs may benefit parents in some regions during wildfires. Future evaluations of smoke education initiatives could help health agencies share effective practices across jurisdictions and target interventions to increase AQI adoption.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00491-w.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 2","pages":"20"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11996998/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144051085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socio-demographic and socio-economic differences in the availability of green space in the Netherlands.","authors":"Mingwei Liu, Erik J Timmermans, Alfred Wagtendonk, Paul Meijer, Diederick E Grobbee, Ilonca Vaartjes","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00498-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00498-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We aimed to map the spatial distribution of green space in the Netherlands, and to first comprehensively assess socio-demographic and socio-economic differences in the availability of green space in the Netherlands. Data was analyzed from all registered residents of the Netherlands aged one and above on January 1, 2017 (16,440,620 individuals). Socio-demographic and socio-economic information was derived from Statistics Netherlands. Data on green space density (percent of the area) around home were assembled by the Institute for Public Health and the Environment at the address level. The distribution of exposure to green space was described by age groups, sex, ethnicity, household socioeconomic status (SES), and urbanicity degree, and stratified by green space type. The distribution of green space by all vegetation, trees, shrubs, low vegetation, grass field, and agriculture was mapped for the Netherlands in 2017. Small differences in green space density were found across age and sex groups. Ethnic Dutch (58.1%) and Indonesian (54.5%) had more green space coverage around residence than Turkish (50.0%) and Moroccan (50.0%). People with higher household SES generally had greater green space coverage, although it slightly decreased at the highest SES level. Higher urbanicity levels were monotonously associated with lower green space exposure. These differences particularly originated from differences in low vegetation. Observed differences between ethnic and SES groups originated mostly from differences in rural to moderately urbanized areas. Environmental injustice was found among ethnic, SES, and urbanicity groups. The differences were mostly present in low vegetation and in rural to moderately urbanized areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 3","pages":"26"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12183132/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144486631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exodus of the affluent? examining climate hazards, migration, and household income in the U.S.","authors":"Mahalia B Clark, Ephraim Nkonya, Gillian L Galford","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>With rising global temperatures come greater temperature and precipitation variability, contributing to more frequent and severe climate hazards that can upend lives and displace families. Lower-income households are often disproportionately impacted, so it is important to understand how climate hazards influence human migration patterns across income levels. There has been limited research on climate migration within the United States (US), particularly with respect to its economic impacts, like the associated transfer of household resources and incomes, or \"income migration.\" Here, we investigate spatial and temporal patterns of US domestic migration across income brackets between 2011 and 2021. We then investigate the role of climate hazards in shaping migration and income migration across US counties using panel data for the years 1995-2021. We found that lower-income households moved at higher rates overall but had less net migration across state lines, while higher-income households moved in a more directed fashion towards the most popular migration destinations. We also found an uptick in migration and income migration after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among higher income brackets. Property damage from climate hazards had small but significant relationships with migration. More destructive hurricanes were associated with reduced net migration and income migration nationally and in the South and Northeast. Flood damage was associated with reduced net income migration (greater outflow and/or reduced inflow of aggregate household income from migration) but had minimal effects on net migration overall, suggesting higher-income households (whose moves have a larger impact on net income migration) may be more likely to leave or avoid counties impacted by flooding. This work provides valuable new insights on the roles of both climate hazards and income levels in shaping domestic migration.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00496-5.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 3","pages":"28"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12187813/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144508858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh.","authors":"Jan Freihardt","doi":"10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Various studies predict large migration flows due to climatic and other environmental changes, yet the ex post empirical evidence for such migration is inconclusive. To examine the causal link between environmental changes and migration for a population residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily affected by floods and riverbank erosion, I relate the respondents' self-reported affectedness by environmental changes, their migration aspirations, and their capability to move to their migration likelihood. The analysis relies on a unique quasi-experimental research design based on original survey panel data of 1604 household heads. I find that erosion significantly and substantively increases the likelihood to migrate, leading to more than a doubling of the migration likelihood compared to the unaffected control group. Flooding has a significant effect only if it causes severe and irreversible impacts. Moreover, erosion affectedness increases the likelihood of moving permanently, with the whole household, and to a rural location. Individual, temporary moves to urban locations, by contrast, are primarily driven by low socio-economic status. Those who move with the whole household migrate mostly less than five kilometers. These findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the complex environment-migration nexus.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"47 1","pages":"6"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11754328/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143048262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatic change and household-level demographic dynamics: concepts and empirical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa.","authors":"Niklas Piringer, Gabrielle Vardanega, Brian C Thiede","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00468-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11111-024-00468-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climatic variability has been linked to multiple demographic and health outcomes, which have important implications for human welfare and development. Despite the importance of these outcomes, few studies have examined its impact on household size. Household size is an important correlate of wellbeing and is driven by multiple demographic processes that may be affected by environmental shocks. This paper describes these links conceptually, and then empirically examines how exposure to climate anomalies affects household size and three underlying components-fertility, marriage, and family agglomeration-that are observed in our data. We examine these relationships by linking harmonized census microdata from eleven sub-Saharan African countries with high-resolution climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and modeling the effects of recent temperature and precipitation exposures on the outcomes of interest. Our analyses indicate that high temperatures may be associated with increases in household size. Models of the underlying demographic components of household size suggest that these temperature effects may be driven by increases in fertility and men's marriage, assuming the latter involves marriage into an existing household. Evidence from exploratory country-specific models reveals significant spatial heterogeneity, raising important questions about the contextual moderators of climate-family dynamics for future research.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"46 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13313722/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148354267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme events, educational aspirations, and long-term outcomes","authors":"René Iwo, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri, Duncan Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00461-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00461-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was an extremely destructive event in Aceh, Indonesia, killing over 160,000 people and destroying infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods over miles of coastline. In its immediate aftermath, affected populations faced a daunting array of challenges. At the population level, questions of how the disaster affected children’s and parents’ aspirations for education and whether it permanently disrupted schooling progression are critical in understanding how shocks affect human capital in the short and long term. We use longitudinal data from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) to examine how disaster exposure affects educational aspirations and eventual attainment. We find that damage to one’s community depresses aspirations in the short term but that this weakens with time. With respect to educational attainment 15 years after the event, children’s aspirations, parents’ education, and family socioeconomic status are more important determinants of whether children complete high school and go on to tertiary schooling than is disaster exposure. While these results likely reflect, at least in part, the successful post-tsunami reconstruction program, they also establish enormous resilience among survivors who bore the brunt of the tsunami.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141869460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate migration and well-being: a study on ex-pastoralists in northern Kenya","authors":"Robbin Jan van Duijne, Dinah Ogara, Rachel Keeton, Diana Reckien","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00456-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00456-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the impacts of climate change intensify globally, scholars and policymakers are increasingly interested in determining the factors that lead to the success or failure of climate adaptation strategies. This paper investigates the well-being outcomes of ex-pastoralists in northern Kenya who have migrated to towns in response to severe droughts. Focusing on Marsabit Town, the study employs a comparative design with primary survey data to analyze the well-being outcomes resulting from migration as an adaptation strategy. We contrast two heterogeneous groups of former pastoralists: a “settled group” that was already residing in Marsabit Town before ending their pastoral activities and a “migrant group” that relocated to Marsabit Town at the time of abandoning pastoralism. Our analysis reveals significant differences in well-being outcomes between these groups, with the migrant group often experiencing deterioration in their well-being levels. Key predictors of poorer well-being outcomes include the loss of all livestock, informal housing, and failure to transition into agricultural work, which often results in dependence on casual labor. Additionally, many migrants continue to experience poor subjective well-being—referring to their personal satisfaction with the quality of life—years after their livelihood transition. These insights offer a nuanced understanding of the well-being outcomes of migration-as-adaptation among heterogeneous groups of ex-pastoralists and underscore the need for customized livelihood support strategies for the most at-risk populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Residential energy consumption by Japan’s super-aging society: visioning a more sustainable future up to 2040","authors":"Nozomu Inoue, Shigeru Matsumoto, Kozo Mayumi","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Japan is a leading exemplar of rapidly aging countries, holding very low fertility rate. Under such circumstances, the present paper examines two important aspects of residential energy consumption patterns of Japan up to the year 2040: (i) presenting two future scenarios of residential energy consumption and (ii) reexamining the effectiveness of traditional strategy to reduce energy consumption mainly through energy efficiency improvement. Before presenting the two main topics of the paper, three important factors are discussed: (i) the population aging effect; (ii) the generation gap in energy use patterns; and (iii) the decline in family size. These factors influence the relationship between the aging population and residential energy consumption. Then, a brief explanation is given for survey data sources, six household types in 11 regions of Japan, and four types of energy carriers. The first scenario assumes that residential energy consumption pattern of each household type remains unchanged from the current situation and that the population projection holds true. The total residential energy consumption will decrease by only 6% between 2020 and 2040. Yet, per capita residential energy consumption will increase despite the fact that the population size will decrease by 10.6%. The second scenario assumes that slightly higher energy efficiency improvements than in the past 15 years will continue to reduce energy consumption from 2020 to 2040. The simulation result of this optimistic scenario also suggests that conventional energy conservation strategies alone are far from sufficient to reduce residential energy consumption per capita. Thus, an alternative strategy to overcome the spell of Jevons’ paradox is urgently required. Frugality combined with lifestyle and behavior change should be seriously attempted to achieve sustainable future for societies including aging countries like Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140888260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating excess migration associated with tropical storms in the USA 1990–2010","authors":"Eugenio Paglino","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical storms are among the most devastating natural disasters in the USA. Climate change is projected to make them even more destructive, and the number of people and properties at risk has steadily increased over the past several decades. Migration is often seen by scholars as an adaptation strategy to reduce exposure to future natural disasters. However, studies of migration after tropical storms have led to inconsistent results and have not analyzed post-storm migration from the viewpoint of exposure to future events. This paper adopts an innovative approach to estimate “excess migration” associated with tropical storms using Bayesian hierarchical models, and decomposes migration by risk of exposure to natural disasters of the origin and destination to understand whether migrants move to safer areas or rather riskier ones. Findings indicate that excess migration after tropical storms is rare and generally fails to reduce the number of people at risk of experiencing future natural disasters. Only the most destructive tropical storms are associated with significant excess migration. Finally, findings further suggest that neither the amount of post-disaster assistance nor the socio-demographic characteristics of the affected counties are strongly associated with excess migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140626919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of temperature on birth rates in Europe","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00450-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00450-x","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140057632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}