Population and Environment最新文献

{"title":"Residential energy consumption by Japan’s super-aging society: visioning a more sustainable future up to 2040","authors":"Nozomu Inoue, Shigeru Matsumoto, Kozo Mayumi","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00453-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Japan is a leading exemplar of rapidly aging countries, holding very low fertility rate. Under such circumstances, the present paper examines two important aspects of residential energy consumption patterns of Japan up to the year 2040: (i) presenting two future scenarios of residential energy consumption and (ii) reexamining the effectiveness of traditional strategy to reduce energy consumption mainly through energy efficiency improvement. Before presenting the two main topics of the paper, three important factors are discussed: (i) the population aging effect; (ii) the generation gap in energy use patterns; and (iii) the decline in family size. These factors influence the relationship between the aging population and residential energy consumption. Then, a brief explanation is given for survey data sources, six household types in 11 regions of Japan, and four types of energy carriers. The first scenario assumes that residential energy consumption pattern of each household type remains unchanged from the current situation and that the population projection holds true. The total residential energy consumption will decrease by only 6% between 2020 and 2040. Yet, per capita residential energy consumption will increase despite the fact that the population size will decrease by 10.6%. The second scenario assumes that slightly higher energy efficiency improvements than in the past 15 years will continue to reduce energy consumption from 2020 to 2040. The simulation result of this optimistic scenario also suggests that conventional energy conservation strategies alone are far from sufficient to reduce residential energy consumption per capita. Thus, an alternative strategy to overcome the spell of Jevons’ paradox is urgently required. Frugality combined with lifestyle and behavior change should be seriously attempted to achieve sustainable future for societies including aging countries like Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140888260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating excess migration associated with tropical storms in the USA 1990–2010","authors":"Eugenio Paglino","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00452-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical storms are among the most devastating natural disasters in the USA. Climate change is projected to make them even more destructive, and the number of people and properties at risk has steadily increased over the past several decades. Migration is often seen by scholars as an adaptation strategy to reduce exposure to future natural disasters. However, studies of migration after tropical storms have led to inconsistent results and have not analyzed post-storm migration from the viewpoint of exposure to future events. This paper adopts an innovative approach to estimate “excess migration” associated with tropical storms using Bayesian hierarchical models, and decomposes migration by risk of exposure to natural disasters of the origin and destination to understand whether migrants move to safer areas or rather riskier ones. Findings indicate that excess migration after tropical storms is rare and generally fails to reduce the number of people at risk of experiencing future natural disasters. Only the most destructive tropical storms are associated with significant excess migration. Finally, findings further suggest that neither the amount of post-disaster assistance nor the socio-demographic characteristics of the affected counties are strongly associated with excess migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140626919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of temperature on birth rates in Europe","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00450-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00450-x","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140057632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration: unpacking the agricultural pathway","authors":"Cascade Tuholske, Maria Agustina Di Landro, Weston Anderson, Robbin Jan van Duijne, Alex de Sherbinin","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00446-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00446-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Researchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative climate change impacts on food production harm livelihoods, which triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migration is thus an adaptation to cope with the impacts of climate change and bolster livelihoods. Recent evidence suggests that the agriculture pathway is a plausible mechanism to explain climate-related migration. But direct causal connections from climate impacts on food production to livelihood loss to rural out-migration have yet to be fully established. To guide future research on the climate-food-migration nexus, we present a conceptual framework that outlines the components and linkages underpinning the agricultural pathway in LMICs. We build on established environmental-migration conceptual frameworks that have informed empirical research and deepened our understanding of complex human-environmental systems. First, we provide an overview of the conceptual framework and its connection to the agricultural pathway hypothesis in the climate mobility literature. We then outline the primary components and linkages of the conceptual framework as they pertain to LMIC contexts, highlighting current research gaps and challenges relating to the agricultural pathway. Last, we discuss possible future research directions for the climate-food-migration nexus. By highlighting the complex, multiscale, interconnected linkages that underpin the agricultural pathway, our framework unpacks the multiple causal connections that currently lie hidden in the agricultural pathway hypothesis.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140045749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temperature and school absences: evidence from England","authors":"Risto Conte Keivabu","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00448-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00448-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme temperature affects children’s health, cognitive abilities, and behavior with implications for human capital accumulation. For example, several studies documented both heat and cold to decrease cognitive abilities and being consequential for test scores. An alternative, less explored pathway, by which temperature is consequential for educational achievement, is absenteeism. In this study, we explore how heat affects school attendance leveraging administrative data on more than 22,000 schools in England from the school years 2011/2012 to 2018/2019. Using a fixed-effects approach largely used in the literature, we exploit the variations in temperature by school year to estimate the effect of heat and cold days on absences. The results expose hot days to increase absences. Inquiring specific types of absences, we observe hot days to increase illness-related absences and authorized holidays. Conversely, we do not find any substantive impact of cold exposure, except for illness-related absences in energy-poor neighborhoods. In conclusion, we provide additional evidence on the impact of temperature on children and propose an alternative pathway through which societal challenges associated with climate change and energy poverty could affect human capital accumulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139978997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effects of environmental and non-environmental shocks on livelihoods and migration in Tanzania","authors":"Julia M. Blocher, Roman Hoffmann, Helga Weisz","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00449-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00449-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Disruptive events and calamities can have major consequences for households in the predominantly agrarian communities of Eastern Africa. Here, we analyze the impacts of environmental and non-environmental shocks on migration in Tanzania using panel models and longitudinal data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey between 2008 and 2013. Shocks are defined as events that lead to losses in income, assets, or both. We find shocks resulting from changes in environmental conditions to be positively related to migration over time with more recent shocks exerting the strongest impact. According to our estimates, the probability of having a household member absent increases by 0.81% with each additional environmental shock encountered in the past 12 months. Different types of shocks have differential effects on migration with the strongest effects being observed for shocks with an immediate impact on household livelihoods, including through livestock losses and crop damage. Households in the sample are differently affected with rural, agriculturally dependent, and poor households without alternative income sources showing the strongest changes in their migration behavior in response to shocks. Our study adds important insights into the relationship between disruptive events and migration in Eastern Africa considering a broad time window and the compounding influence of different shock types. Our findings have a range of policy implications highlighting the need for a comprehensive perspective on household responses in times of distress that considers the interplay of different shock types as well as the role of context in shaping mobility patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139979585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Acquisition of disability after age 50 following extreme urban coastal flooding events in India","authors":"Michael S. Rendall","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00447-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00447-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme climate events are infrequently considered for older individuals’ health and wellbeing in low and middle income countries. The world’s first and fourth largest urban populations exposed to extreme coastal flooding are in India (Mumbai and Kolkata). These and the next largest of India’s coastal cities, Chennai and Surat, each experienced an extreme flood event in the years 2005-2007 that was either unprecedented in recorded meteorological history (Mumbai and Chennai) or whose magnitude exceeded any in the last 30 and 40 years (Kolkata and Surat). Panel data collected before these events (2004-2005), and collected again approximately seven years later (2011-2012), are used for individuals aged 50 and over. Acquisition of any disability condition between 2004-2005 and 2011-2012 in these four large coastal cities is compared to all India’s urban areas, and to India’s five inland cities (Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Pune) whose population sizes were between those of the four exposed coastal cities of the study. Residing in a coastal city that experienced an extreme flood event was associated with a 66% higher odds of acquiring disability (OR 1.66; 95% CI:1.21, 2.27) relative to residing in equivalent-sized inland city. Being older, female, unmarried, in a single-generation household, and having a chronic morbidity condition had positive associations with disability acquisition, but only older age had a magnitude of association exceeding that for living in a coastal city that experienced an extreme flood event.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extended families and demographic explanations for land use-cover change in the Brazilian Amazon","authors":"Julia Corrêa Côrtes, Álvaro de Oliveira D’Antona, Stephen Perz","doi":"10.1007/s11111-024-00445-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-024-00445-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Household Life Cycle framework relates family demographic processes to land use-cover change, but also revealed limitations. We propose several modifications, featuring a focus on extended families instead of single households, to broaden the applicability to land use systems. In the process, we pay particular attention to temporal dynamics and the spatial distribution of families concerning demographic processes, going beyond fertility to focus on population distribution. To evaluate the extended family model’s explanatory value, we apply it to the Transamazon Highway region in Brazil. The analysis includes 330 families, which are often multi-generational and multi-sited, based on data from 402 lots (1997/8–2005). We present models for forest, secondary succession, annual crops, perennials and pasture. Explanatory variables feature nine demographic factors with five others controlling for exogenous forces. The findings show strong effects for family dynamics and spatial distribution variables in many equations. Time on lot (cohort effect), the complexity of family structure (age effect) and social integration into urban fabric (spatial effect) are demographic processes that deserve further attention in land use studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought and migration: a case study of rural Mozambique","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11111-023-00444-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00444-1","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Migration is commonly seen as a last resort for households impacted by climate shocks, given the costs and risks that migration typically entails. However, pre-existing labor migration channels may facilitate immediate migration decisions in response to climate shocks. This study explores the relationship between migration and droughts in a rural Sub-Saharan setting from which men commonly migrate in search of non-agricultural employment. We use data from the Men’s Migrations and Women’s Lives project, which includes a longitudinal household panel conducted in rural Mozambique between 2006 and 2017, and combine it with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, a high-resolution climate measure. The fixed-effect models assess the lagged impact of droughts on the labor migration status of male household heads. We find an immediate increase in migration following a drought, peaking in the first year, then diminishing in the second year, with a slight resurgence in the third year. However, by the sixth-year post-drought, the likelihood of being a migrant turns negative. These findings demonstrate the complex associations of climate shocks with labor migration in low-income rural settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139376471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate (im)mobilities in the Eastern Hindu Kush: The case of Lotkuh Valley, Pakistan","authors":"Saeed A. Khan, Martin Doevenspeck, Oliver Sass","doi":"10.1007/s11111-023-00443-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00443-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The relationship between climate, environment, and human mobility is complex as (im)mobility outcomes are influenced by multiple socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors. The current debate is focused on migration as an adaptation strategy in the face of climate change but largely ignores the immobility aspect, particularly in the Eastern Hindu Kush where mountain livelihoods are strongly dependent on local environmental conditions. In this study, we examine the interrelations between climate change and the environment as drivers of human mobility and immobility in the mountain communities of Lotkuh valley, Chitral, in north Pakistan. We employed a mixed methods approach grounded in migration theory to describe the relationship between climate change, environment, and (im)mobility outcomes. The study reveals that climate (im)mobilities are the outcome of a complex interplay between climate change, extreme events, and local livelihoods. The primary drivers of (im)mobility are socioeconomic factors. Forced displacement is driven by a multitude of extreme events in the area. Three critical aspects of livelihoods—land resources, crop productivity, and livestock farming—are identified as significant factors influencing mobility and immobility outcomes. Recurring extreme events such as floods and landslides exacerbate soil erosion and the loss of fertile farmlands, leading to food insecurity and compelling households to resort to labor migration as an adaptation strategy. Conversely, for households facing severe income stress and depleted economic assets, immobility becomes the only viable option due to insufficient resources for migration. Moreover, the study reveals that some households adopt a mixed strategy by sending select members to other areas while others remain in their places of origin to sustain their livelihoods. The study has implications for policymakers, government, and development organizations in the region suggesting sustainable livelihoods and adaptation measures to address the specific challenges faced by mountain communities in the Lotkuh valley and the wider region.</p>","PeriodicalId":47692,"journal":{"name":"Population and Environment","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138817408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}