Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh.

IF 3.2 3区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY
Population and Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-22 DOI:10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7
Jan Freihardt
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Various studies predict large migration flows due to climatic and other environmental changes, yet the ex post empirical evidence for such migration is inconclusive. To examine the causal link between environmental changes and migration for a population residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily affected by floods and riverbank erosion, I relate the respondents' self-reported affectedness by environmental changes, their migration aspirations, and their capability to move to their migration likelihood. The analysis relies on a unique quasi-experimental research design based on original survey panel data of 1604 household heads. I find that erosion significantly and substantively increases the likelihood to migrate, leading to more than a doubling of the migration likelihood compared to the unaffected control group. Flooding has a significant effect only if it causes severe and irreversible impacts. Moreover, erosion affectedness increases the likelihood of moving permanently, with the whole household, and to a rural location. Individual, temporary moves to urban locations, by contrast, are primarily driven by low socio-economic status. Those who move with the whole household migrate mostly less than five kilometers. These findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the complex environment-migration nexus.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.

孟加拉国易受气候影响人口的环境冲击和移民。
各种研究预测了由于气候和其他环境变化导致的大规模移民流动,但这种移民的事后经验证据尚无定论。为了研究居住在孟加拉国贾穆纳河沿岸的人口的环境变化与移民之间的因果关系,这是一个受洪水和河岸侵蚀严重影响的地区,我将受访者自我报告的环境变化影响、他们的移民愿望和他们的迁移能力与他们的迁移可能性联系起来。本研究基于1604户户主的原始调查面板数据,采用了独特的准实验研究设计。我发现侵蚀显著而实质性地增加了迁移的可能性,与未受影响的控制组相比,导致迁移可能性增加了一倍以上。洪水只有在造成严重和不可逆转的影响时才具有重大影响。此外,侵蚀影响增加了全家永久迁移到农村地区的可能性。相比之下,个人临时迁往城市的主要原因是社会经济地位低下。那些与全家一起迁移的人大多迁移不到5公里。这些发现要求对复杂的环境迁移关系有更细致的理解。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,可在10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7获得。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
6.10%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: Population & Environment is the sole social science journal focused on interdisciplinary research on social demographic aspects of environmental issues. The journal publishes cutting-edge research that contributes new insights on the complex, reciprocal links between human populations and the natural environment in all regions and countries of the world. Quantitative, qualitative or mixed methods contributions are welcome. Disciplines commonly represented in the journal include demography, geography, sociology, human ecology, environmental economics, public health, anthropology and environmental studies. The journal publishes original research, research brief, and review articles.
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